How worried should Panthers be about Bobrovsky’s bad start?

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After a summer full of splashy spending, the Florida Panthers find themselves in the murky middle, with a strange (and frustrating) record of 5-3-4.

For a franchise ranked only 14th in shootout wins (68) despite leading the league in shootouts since the format began in 2005-06 (162, losing 94, 10 more shootout losses than any other team), seeing four in that last category has to be frustrating.

But, really, the Panthers should probably find relief in the fact that, if the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs began before Wednesday’s games, they’d be the second wild-card team. That’s an accomplishment because, frankly, it’s been a terrible start for their $10 million goalie Sergei Bobrovsky.

What’s this about, Bob?

You don’t have to dig too deep to see how rocky the start has been for “Bob.” It’s remarkable that he’s managed even a mediocre 4-2-3 record considering an abysmal .870 save percentage.

Things don’t get a lot better when you look at deeper stats. While discussing the hottest goalie starts to 2019-20, PHT frequently pointed to GSAA (goals saved above average), a metric that attempts to compare how a goalie performs compared to other goalies facing similar chances and situations. The flipside to over-performing goalies in that stat is goalies who’ve seemingly underachieved, and things look glum for Bobrovsky there.

By Hockey Reference’s standards, Bobrovsky’s GSAA is -9.71, the second-worst mark in the NHL behind only free-falling Kings goalie Jonathan Quick (-12.13). Things don’t really get better based on Emmanuel Perry’s measurements at Corsica Hockey, and you can see that Bob falls low on this Hockey Viz graph as well.

Less than half of Bobrovsky’s starts (.444 percent) are considered “quality starts,” according to Hockey Reference. Looking at Bob’s game logs, he’s been at or above a .914 save percentage in four appearances, and at .878 or below (sometimes drastically below) during his other six with Florida so far.

It’s important to remember that this is a small sample size, and it’s not as though Bob hasn’t managed the occasional wonderful save:

… But yes, it’s been a rough start.

Bumpy beginner?

It’s fair to wonder if Bobrovsky is simply one of those goalies who gets off to slow starts, like a bear making a big yawn (do bears yawn?) after hibernating through the winter.

Looking at Bobrovsky’s career split stats, you could advance an argument, scientific or not. During his career in October, his save percentage has been on average .903 (or .908 if you take out the disastrous month of October 2019), which would be his worse average of any month, though he’s struggled a bit in Februaries (.909).

If Bob’s past patterns hold, November could present a big turnaround, as that month is his second strongest (.924 career average, March is the highest at .933, and is the largest sample with 97GP).

Bobrovsky certainly got off to a slow start in 2018-19, with a .904 save percentage before the All-Star Break and then a .924 mark afterward. The Panthers have to hope that November wakeup call happens.

Nature vs. nurture

So, how much of Bob’s bad start is on him, and how much of this comes down to Florida struggling?

Looking at team numbers at Natural Stat Trick, we can see that the Panthers have been a strong team in puck possession measures like Corsi and Fenwick, along with simpler stats like shots and scoring chances for.

… But there’s a catch.

The Panthers have allowed almost 10 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes (9.97) while creating a bit less than eight of their own (7.94). Generating only 44.32 of the high-danger chances in their games makes for the fourth-worst discrepancy in the NHL.

More specifically to Bobrovsky, he’s faced 55 high-danger shots (or 5.5 per night) at five-on-five, giving him a troubling save percentage of .745 in those situations. Natural Stat Trick’s various stats indicate that he’s struggling relative to what other goalies might be expected to produce in those scenarios.

It’s not all bad for the Panthers defense, as they’ve seemed to keep rush attempts under reasonable control, yet the bigger picture makes it clear that they could probably do more to insulate their struggling, big-money puckstopper.

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The most important thing to realize is that it’s early.

Bobrovsky is on a new team, in a new city, and that new team is adjusting to a new system being installed by a new coach.

He’s also had a history of slow starts followed by hot streaks. The big picture of Bobrovsky’s career is elite more often than not.

Of course, patience will only last so long, especially at Bob’s price tag. The Panthers face the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday, so if Bobrovsky’s the starter, he could get another chance to prove himself in mere hours.

MORE:
• Pro Hockey Talk’s Stanley Cup picks.
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Robin Lehner to make Golden Knights debut; Mark Stone injured

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The Vegas Golden Knights have been one of the league’s hottest teams over the past month and will be looking to extend their current winning streak to eight games on Friday night when they host the Buffalo Sabres.

Coach Pete DeBoer had some significant lineup news ahead of the game on Friday afternoon, including a potentially significant injury.

First, is the news that big trade deadline acquisition Robin Lehner will be making his first start in goal for the team. The Golden Knights acquired Lehner from the Chicago Blackhawks just ahead of the NHL trade deadline on Monday for a draft pick and a prospect. Lehner has been one of the league’s best goalies for the past two years and alongside Marc-Andre Fleury should give them one of the league’s best goaltending duos.

The far more serious news, though, was the announcement that forward Mark Stone will not play on Friday due to a lower-body injury.

DeBoer had no immediate information on how long Stone could be out, only to say that he is still being evaluated.

When asked if it could potentially be a long-term injury DeBoer said “There’s always fear. We don’t know, but we’ll see,” via NHL.com.

Stone is one of the league’s best all-around forwards and has not only been a point-per-game player for the past three seasons, he is also one of the best defensive forwards in the league. He finished the 2018-19 season as the top runner-up for the Selke Trophy, something that has become almost unheard of for a winger.

The Golden Knights enter Friday’s game in first place in the Pacific Division, four points ahead of the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks.

Related: Blackhawks trade Robin Lehner to Golden Knights

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

 

Oilers’ Mike Green to miss 3-4 weeks with sprained MCL

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Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland was busy at the NHL trade deadline adding Mike Green, Andreas Athanasiou, and Tyler Ennis to his roster in an effort to improve its depth. But just two games later his team has already lost one of those new players to injury.

The Oilers announced on Friday that Green, acquired from the Detroit Red Wings for Kyle Brodziak and a draft pick, will be sidelined for the next 3-4 weeks due to an MCL sprain.

That is the way things seem to be going for the Oilers right now as injuries keep adding up throughout their roster.

Green joins an injury list that already includes the team’s top defenseman (Oscar Klefbom), as well as James Neal, Kailer Yamamoto, and Kris Russell.

Green played 19 minutes in the Oilers’ 3-0 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.

Athanasiou was also injured in that game, but is expected to play on Saturday when the Oilers host the Winnipeg Jets.

The Oilers enter the weekend in third place in the Pacific Division with 74 points, four points back of Vegas and only two points ahead of the non-playoff teams in the Western Conference.

Related: Red Wings send Mike Green to Oilers

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Islanders will play all home games at Nassau Coliseum in 2020-21: Report

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March 22 will be the final Islanders’ game at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, according to Newsday.

Randi Marshall reports that New York governor Andrew Cuomo will announce on Saturday that the Islanders will play any home playoff games this season and all of their 2020-21 home schedule at Nassau Coliseum.

The Islanders are currently building a new arena by Belmont Park race track which is expected to be ready in time for the 2021-22 NHL season. The franchise played all of its home games at the Coliseum from 1972-2015 before moving to Brooklyn full-time in 2015. That lasted until 2018 when they split home games at both arenas, with Nassau Coliseum playing host to their Round 1 matchup against the Penguins and Barclays for their second round series against the Hurricanes.

While Barclays Center helped keep the Islanders in New York, it has not been the easiest arena to travel to for fans. The ability to get there via mass transit was a positive that the Coliseum doesn’t have. Yet when the Islanders returned back to Long Island last season, there was plenty nostalgia over the building that was home for the franchise’s glory days.

In September the Islanders broke ground on the new 19,000-seat arena by Belmont Park which is less than 10 miles from Nassau Coliseum.

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

David Ayres gets own hockey card, stick on display at Hall of Fame

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It has been quite a week for David Ayres.

At this time seven days almost no one in the hockey world knew who he was. But after being forced into action as an emergency backup goalie for the Carolina Hurricanes, and then getting the win in the game over the Toronto Maple Leafs, he is still getting some pretty big honors.

First, there was the shirt that the Hurricanes started to produce with his name and number on the back (with Ayres getting royalties, and other proceeds going to a kidney foundation). He was also invited to the Hurricanes’ home game on Tuesday night to sound the siren before their game against the Dallas Stars.

Now he is getting his own hockey card from Upper Deck, while the stick he used in Saturday’s game is on display at the Metropolitan Division exhibit at the Hockey Hall of Fame.

The card is part of Upper Deck’s Dated Moments e-packs.

From Upper Deck:

David Ayres, a 42-year-old maintenance operations manager and part-time Zamboni driver, was called into action as the emergency goaltender about halfway through the Carolina Hurricanes’ game against Toronto after both Carolina goaltenders were injured. In his surprise NHL debut, he helped Carolina to a 6-3 win over the Maple Leafs.

Meanwhile, the stick he used in Saturday’s game to stop eight out of 10 shots, is now on display at the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto.

The 42-year-old Ayres had previously served as an emergency backup goalie for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies but never entered the game. He was forced to play on Saturday after Hurricanes goalies James Reimer and Petr Mrazek were both injured.

MORE: Hurricanes emergency goalie David Ayres beats Maple Leafs

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.