Considering the “Aww, shucks” demeanor of many NHL players, it’s still sometimes surprising to hear someone speak the truth in a matter-of-fact way.
Of course you’d think Alex Ovechkin would want to someday break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record of 894, but plenty of players would mumble some sort of cliche about it. Yet, at 236 goals away at 658, it’s at least a conceivable goal, and it sounds like Ovechkin’s at least willing to state the obvious: that it’s at least in the back of his mind.
Elliotte Friedman pointed out that Ovechkin stated as much in the latest edition of “31 Thoughts.”
“Of course it matters,” Ovechkin said when asked about Gretzky’s record, “But like I said, I’m not going to score 300 goals in two years. It’s going to take five or six years. I have to be healthy enough to do that. I don’t want to play just for that record. I want to be healthy, I want to have fun, I want to enjoy the moment when I’m on the ice.”
... While Ovechkin acknowledged the possibility to Sportsnet radio hosts Tim & Sid:
Four years, score 50+ goals per, why not? @ovi8 is only 236 goals from Wayne Gretzky's all-time record of 894. 💁♂️🐐#NHLMediaDay | #NHL 📸🏒 pic.twitter.com/8p2WNeTYw8
— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) September 6, 2019
(“We have to talk about something,” indeed.)
With unique talents like Gretzky and Ovechkin, extraordinary numbers and feats start to feel expected, and ordinary.
For most NHL forwards, 236 goals would make for a really nice career, let alone a number to strive for when you’ve already played 1,000+ NHL games, won multiple high-level awards, and a Stanley Cup. That goal is especially lofty when you realize Ovechkin will turn 34 on Sept. 17.
But considering the machine-like scoring of the Russian Machine Who Never Breaks, it’s irresistible to forecast Ovechkin flirting with 900.
For those who truly cannot resist, consider the paces Ovechkin would need to reach 894 from his current 658:
Four seasons: 59 goals per year.
Five seasons: A bit more than 47 goals per year (47.2).
Six seasons: Slightly less than 40 goals per season (39.33).
Seven seasons: Almost 34 goals per season (33.7).
Eight seasons: Essentially a 30-goal average (29.5).
Nine seasons: Slightly more than 26 goals per year (26.2).
Ten seasons: 23.6 goals per year (or about 24).
The interesting thing about stretching that pace out is that, while Ovechkin playing longer into a career would increase the odds by sheer volume, to some extent it does a better job of putting the monumental task into perspective. If Ovechkin got hurt or was slowed, he’d have to remain at a high level for a long time, or manage to maintain his currently extremely high level for a considerable run.
(Consider that, in 2018-19, only 87 players finished with at least 23 goals.)
Yet, if any player can actually meet or exceed 894 goals, it’s Ovechkin. Remarkably, he’s still slightly ahead of Gretzky’s sniping pace, as Ovechkin’s 658 goals in 1,084 games puts him at .61 goals-per-game, while Gretzky’s 894 in 1,487 is slightly behind at .60.
This race has been discussed before, including at PHT, and will almost certainly be a topic as Ovechkin’s career continues, what with Ovechkin coming off of a 51-goal, Maurice Richard Trophy-winning season in 2018-19.
Whether Ovechkin makes it or falls short, it should be fun to watch.
MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule
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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.