At 33 years old Alex Ovechkin is not supposed to be scoring goals at this sort of pace.
He is not supposed to be scoring goals the way he was when he was in his mid-20s.
The typical aging curve for NHL players, even the elites, says they are supposed to be slowing down at this point in their career and seeing their numbers slide south in a downward trend.
But as Ovechkin has shown throughout his brilliant career, he is not typical.
He is also not slowing down.
With three more goals on Tuesday night in the Capitals’ 6-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings, the game’s greatest goal-scorer added to his league leading total and now sits atop the NHL with 25 goals through his team’s first 30 games.
He also extending his current point streak to 12 consecutive games.
These numbers are impressive, even for Ovechkin. Especially when you consider he has never at any point in his career scored more goals through his team’s first 30 games (22 was his previous high at this point) and is currently on a 68-goal pace for the season.
These numbers are downright comical because they are completely unheard for a player this age. They are bordering on absurd.
Since 1987 no player in the NHL at age 33 or older has ever scored this many goals through 30 games (no one had more than 22).
In the history of the league only 13 different players have recorded a 50-goal season over the age of 30, while only three (Jaromir Jagr, Bobby Hull, and John Buyck) have recorded one at age 33 or older.
Ovechkin is now literally halfway there with still 52 games to play this season.
It would not be unfair to say he has had some puck luck on his side so far, and that was especially true on Tuesday night where two of his goals came off of fluky bounces. He also has a 21.5 percent shooting percentage that is seven points higher than his previous career best (14.6 in 2007-08, when he scored 65 goals) and nine points higher than his career average. That sort of pace is unsustainable in the modern NHL, even for somebody as great as Ovechkin.
But even if he shot at his normal career average (12.6 percent) over the rest of the season that would still be another 25 goals based on his current shot output. That would put him at exactly 50 goals for the season, and what very well might be an eighth goal-scoring crown.
It is expecting a lot given that no one has ever really done anything like this at this age, but would you want to bet against him?
The defending champs have now won 11 of their past 14 games and extended their lead in the Metropolitan Division with Tuesday’s win.
(H/T to Hockey-Reference database for historical goal data in this post)