Can Max Domi continue current offensive pace?

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At his end of season press conference last April, Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin talked about needing to fix his team’s attitude. Eyebrows were raised, and many questioned what he meant by that. He ended up dealing Alex Galchenyuk and Max Pacioretty to Western Conference teams. In return for Galchenyuk, he managed to land Max Domi from the Arizona Coyotes. At the time, the trade was met with skepticism. Galchenyuk was coming off a down year, but Domi had only scored nine times in 82 games during the 2017-18 season. Well, the trade couldn’t have worked out any better after the first month of play.

Domi, 23, has been incredible for the Canadiens. Not only has he brought a fresh attitude to this group, he’s also been the most productive player on the team by a mile. The fourth-year NHLer has already matched his goal total from last season, as he’s found the back of the net nine times in just 17 games with the Canadiens. Also, he leads the team in points with 21.

What makes this even more impressive, is that he’s done it while playing center for a team that was lacking depth at that position in a bad way. Despite playing with an inconsistent Jonathan Drouin on his left side, Domi has managed to produce on a nightly basis. Of the 17 games he’s played this season, Domi has failed to collect a point in just three contests.

As of right now, only eight players have collected more points than Domi. The biggest question is whether or not he can keep it up. Let’s take a look at the advanced numbers.

The first stat we’ll look at, is shooting percentage. Right now, the average shooting percentage across the NHL is 9.8 percent. Domi’s shooting percentage is currently 25 percent. Yowza! Over the course of his career, he’s never had a shooting percentage higher than 11.5 percent, and that came during his rookie season. Combine the shooting percentage with the fact that he’s shooting the puck more than ever, as he’s averaging 2.12 shots per game. His previous career-high was 1.93. Even if he keeps shooting more than he has in previous years, it’s hard to envision him finishing with 43 goals (that’s what he’s on pace for right now).

His PDO (shooting percentage + his goalie’s save percentage when he’s on the ice) also indicates that his offensive totals could come down in the near future. Every player’s PDO should finish around the 100-mark. Domi’s PDO is currently at 104.5, which, again, means there’s likely some regression coming. So yeah, a 101-point season isn’t likely.

Even if his numbers drop at some point, it doesn’t mean that Domi will totally fall off the grid. Coming into this season, Canadiens fans would have taken a 55-60 point season from their new forward. If he hits those numbers, the trade ends up being a home run for Bergevin after one year.

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

The Buzzer: Make your Mark

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Three Stars

1. Mark Scheifele

The last time the Winnipeg Jets took off for a huge victory, it was Blake Wheeler who was stealing the headlines with a rousing five-point night. Scheifele wasn’t half-bad on that Friday, either.

On Sunday, the roles were reversed. Wheeler extended his point streak to 10 games, collecting two assists. Scheifele was even better, generating a helper to go with two goals, with one of his tallies being the game-winner.

Scheifele, like Wheeler, often stacks the stat categories, and Sunday was no different. The star-on-a-bargain-contract enjoyed a +3 night, fired four shots on goal, blocked a shot, and went 12-8 in the faceoff circle.

(It would be surprising if Paul Maurice changes the third member of that line anytime soon, as talented young winger Nikolaj Ehlers provided a goal and an assist; his speedy transition game makes this top line horrifying … and oh yeah, the Jets also have Patrik Laine for weaker defenseman and Dustin Byfuglien stomping around as if he realizes that no one can contain him. Gulp.)

2. Joe Pavelski

This is a tough one, because while Pavelski ties Scheifele as the only Sunday scorer to collect three points, it’s inflated a bit by his goal being an empty-netter.

That extra point feels like a fair tiebreaker, though, especially since Pavelski paralleled Aleksander Barkov and others by contributing a strong all-around night. Along with that goal and two assists, Pavelski was +3, generated three SOG, delivered four hits, and blocked four shots while going 9-5 on draws.

People don’t really hammer scorers for failing to get assists in the same way they pick on someone when they haven’t managed their first goal of a season, but it has to be a relief for Pavelski to grab his first two assists of 2018-19. Considering that he’s in an uneasy contract year situation, he – and his agent, and the Sharks – are likely counting these things.

3. Darcy Kuemper

Again, this is a spot where you could argue for Barkov, or maybe Jaroslav Halak, who finished Sunday with only one fewer save (37). How much do you weigh Barkov’s strong overall performance/two goals over Kuemper’s nice work and 38 stops?

To me, Kuemper gets the edge for a few reasons:

  • Kuemper was facing a rested team in Washington, while Arizona was wrapping up a back-to-back following frustrating 4-0 loss to the Penguins on Saturday.
  • That rested team was the Capitals, a squad that can manufacture goals even when it’s playing 50-50 hockey, and even if they are the one dealing with more fatigue.
  • Other goalies with similar stats didn’t face that rest disparity.
  • He likely came into Sunday with fire in his belly, yet low confidence, as he had allowed a total of 13 goals in his past three starts.

Maybe you prefer the work of Barkov or someone else, but you have to admit that Kuemper enjoyed quite the performance.

Highlights

A player as smart and skilled as Barkov can make you pay for a mistake and/or unlucky bounce in a matter of seconds:

The Minnesota Wild are red-hot lately, and Devan Dubnyk usually is at the forefront of their hot streaks. Making saves like these reminds us that he’s one of the better goalies in the NHL during the (rather frequent) spans when he’s on his game:

Lowlight

Former Bruins goalie (prospect) Malcolm Subban will like to forget the first goal of Jeremy Lauzon’s career (which he, of course, will never forget):

Factoids

Hot take: David Pastrnak having 16 goals before we’ve even reached Nov. 16 is quite impressive.

Pavel Bure wasn’t a member of the Panthers all that long, yet he authored some astounding moments in Florida, so Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov flirting with one of his club marks is impressive. Also: scary, since the Panthers also employ that Barkov fellow. Oh, And Vincent Trocheck. And Keith Yandle. And …

Scores

MIN 3 – STL 2
FLA 5 – OTT 1
ARI 4 – WSH 1
WPG 5 – NJD 2
BOS 4 – VGK 1
SJS 3 – CGY 1
COL 4 – EDM 1

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Maple Leafs shine harsh light on Devils’ struggles

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As part of the 2018 Hockey Hall of Fame ceremonies, Martin Brodeur was on hand to see the New Jersey Devils get dominated in a way he didn’t have to experience all that often during his vaunted, record-breaking career.

The Toronto Maple Leafs dominated much of the play on Friday, ultimately stomping the Devils to the tune of a 6-1 win, giving Mike Babcock’s Buds three consecutive victories.

The Devils frequently struggled when it came to limiting the Maple Leafs’ attack, which was deadly even as Auston Matthews remains on the shelf. John Tavares got on the board, but it was really a team effort for Toronto.

The Devils came roaring into 2018-19 with a four-game winning streak, prompting optimism that maybe last season was the start of something special, rather than an example of a team playing over its head.

On Friday, Keith Kinkaid and the Devils were instead in over their heads:

It’s the sort of night that got people trolling Kinkaid for his fabulous knack for post-game emoji analysis:

Things haven’t exactly been going swimmingly for the Devils in recent weeks. New Jersey fell 7-3 to the Senators on Tuesday, so they’ve really been springing leaks defensively. After a heartening 4-0-0 start, the Devils have lost eight of their last 10 games, watching their overall record tumble to 6-7-1.

Beginning the season on such a strong note should reduce the urge to panic, especially New Jersey’s Metropolitan Division rivals aren’t exactly throwing together hot streaks, either.

It’s not the largest sample size, yet with all those caveats, you wonder if Devils head coach John Hynes might be wise to make some tweaks. As this breakdown from About the Jersey points out, Taylor Hall has been struggling a bit at even-strength early on, adding credence to concerns that the reigning Hart Trophy winner might not be able to carry the Devils to the same lofty heights as last season.

(Going on that run felt quite a bit like a tightrope walk, as Hall truly willed a flaw [but often fun] Devils team to the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.)

Granted, it’s not necessarily the end of the world if the Devils really hit the wall this season.

Instead of overreacting to the Devils overachieving last season by making a bunch of risky, possibly recklessly expensive additions in free agency, GM Ray Shero instead mostly stood pat. He probably could have brought Patrick Maroon and Michael Grabner back, but instead showed discipline.

(As much as Hall could use more help, do note that the St. Louis Blues made Maroon a healthy scratch on Friday.)

Kinkaid has been a pleasant surprise in net extending back to last season, yet it’s unlikely that he’s the type of goalie who can steal wins all year long. And, again, as fantastic as Hall usually is, he can only do so much.

There are still reasons to be positive about the Devils’ potential to build a contender around Hall. This stretch merely argues that there also may be some growing pains before they can make the leap from a hit-or-miss squad to a more lasting contender, something they haven’t been since Brodeur hung up his pads.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Coyotes’ penalty kill has been incredible

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The Arizona Coyotes dropped a 5-4 overtime decision to the Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday night. In the end, it had to be a mostly disappointing result given that they entered the third period with a two-goal lead, but they were still able to collect another point and are now 6-2-1 in their past nine games after winning just one of their first five.

Still a lot of good news if you are a Coyotes fan when it comes to the big picture outlook for the season.

One of the biggest reasons they were able to collect another point on Thursday was yet another incredible performance by their penalty killing unit which might be, through the first month of the season, the single most impressive unit in the league.

They not only killed off all three Flyers’ power plays on the night, but they also scored two more shorthanded goals. Those two shorthanded goals came on the same penalty kill in the second period, and were just 23 seconds apart.

On its own that would be an incredible performance, even if just for one game. But the Coyotes have been doing this all season, and have already scored nine shorthanded goals in only 14 games. 

They have only scored 22 goals at even-strength in those 14 games. Even more ridiculous is the fact their own power play has only scored seven.

Since the start of the 1990 season only five teams have had more than five shorthanded goals this far into November. The 1993-94 St. Louis Blues and New York Rangers both have seven. The 1991-92 Philadelphia Flyers, 2005-06 Montreal Canadiens, and 2008-09 New York Rangers all had six.

The Coyotes, once again, currently have nine.

There were only five teams in the entire league a year ago that scored more than nine shorthanded goals for the entire season.

They have scored those nine goals on only 45 penalty kills, the sixth lowest number in the league. That means they are scoring on exactly 20 percent of their penalty kills. To put that number in perspective, there are currently 14 power play units in the NHL (including the Coyotes’) that are converting on less than 20 percent of their power play opportunities.

These are absurd numbers, and it is not just about the goals scored.

They are generating a ton of shots, too, at least relative to the rest of the league. So far this season they are averaging more than 20 shots on goal per 60 minutes of penalty kill time. No other team in the league is averaging more than 18, while only four averaging more than 15. The league average is around 12.

What makes the performance offensively even more incredible is they are not giving it up at the other end. It is not the result of an overly aggressive strategy that is leaving them exposed defensively where they give up as much as they score or generate. As of Friday, their penalty killing unit is also allowing the third fewest total shot attempts per 60 minutes of PK time.

They have only allowed four goals and currently have a league-best 91.1 percent success rate when down a player.

Overall, they still have a positive goal differential at plus-five.

Only one team in the league is better than minus-four (the San Jose Sharks are at minus-three).

So what is behind this performance? When it comes to the goals they are scoring there is almost certainly an element of luck and circumstance at play here. No matter how good your penalty killing unit it you don’t need me to tell you that it unreasonable to expect a team to keep scoring shorthanded goals at that pace (and outscoring opposing power plays) over an entire season.

Still, given the number of chances they are creating and the number of shots the unit is generating (as well as the shots they are not allowing their opponents to register) suggests there is also plenty of skill on the unit as well. Goaltending will always play a big role for a team’s penalty kill, and when healthy the Coyotes have an outstanding goaltender in Antti Raanta.

But when it comes to the skaters a lot of the success has to start up front where the Coyotes boast two of the best penalty killing forwards in the league when it comes to generating shorthanded opportunities in Michael Grabner and Derek Stepan.

Of the 160 forwards that have played at least 150 shorthanded minutes since the start of the 2016-17 season, Grabner and Stepan are both among the top-eight (Grabner is second; Stepan is eighth) in shot attempt percentage, while Grabner (currently the team’s top shorthanded option among forwards) is in the top-15 in terms of shot suppression and goals against. His speed is a game-changer and can cause havoc for opposing power plays. He and the rest of his teammates (including Stepan, Brad Richardson, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Alex Goligoski, and Jason Demers) are doing a number on every power play unit they have faced this season.

They are going to get two big tests in their upcoming games when they go on the road to face the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals. It will be interesting to see how they fare against two of the most intimidating and talented power plays in the league.

(Data in this post via Natural Stat Trick)

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

What’s going on with Carey Price?

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The Montreal Canadiens were expected to be one of the bottom-dwellers in the Eastern Conference this season. Instead, they’ve proven everybody wrong by getting off to an 8-5-3 start. Nothing to complain about in Montreal then, right? Guess again!

After they traded away their two best scorers in Max Pacioretty and Alex Galchenyuk, the expectation was that they’d have a hard time putting the puck in the net. That hasn’t been an issue. The Shea Weber injury was also supposed to derail their season, but the defense has sort of held up until now. So what’s the big issue that has fans up in arms? Apparently, it’s Carey Price.

Let’s make one thing clear: Price hasn’t been good enough this season. That has never been more evident than over the last few days, as he gave up bad goals in the third period against the New York Rangers on Tuesday night.

And he also gave up a couple of stinkers in Thursday’s 6-5 overtime loss to the Buffalo Sabres on home ice: