Tyler Toffoli

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Toffoli trade could be a win for all involved, including the Kings

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The best type of trade may also be the rarest: one where everyone – each team, and all of the players involved – end up “winning.”

It’s possible that such a situation could play out between Tyler Toffoli, the Los Angeles Kings, and a savvy team that might determine that now is as good a time as any to try to “buy low” on the 27-year-old forward. Let’s consider those perspectives.

“Whatever happens, happens”

Toffoli was a healthy scratch during the Kings’ 5-3 loss to the Vancouver Canucks last Wednesday, and inspired a frank review from Kings head coach Todd McLellan, as Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reported.

“Tyler was a really good player for a good period this season, then things kind of fell off for him,” McLellan said. “He’s got so much to give this team and to give himself, that maybe an opportunity to get a little angry – whether he’s angry at the coach or whoever – and then come and give us what he has, that’s what we’re looking for.”

As much as McLellan framed the situation as not much more than tough love, the healthy scratch ignited trade rumors, and Toffoli responded to such questions from Sportsnet’s Luke Fox by giving an “it is what it is”-style response of “whatever happens, happens.”

Toffoli is on the last year of a contract that carries a $4.6 million AAV, and the 2019-20 season figures to have an enormous impact on whether or not Toffoli gets much of a raise and/or receives the term that most players yearn for in a dangerous league.

Even if the healthy scratch is just a one-time thing, Toffoli must feel concerned. There’s the possibility of him yo-yoing in and out of the lineup, and on a team that isn’t expected to be a big contender to boot.

Although Toffoli may in fact prefer to stay in Los Angeles, it wouldn’t be that hard to sell him on a change of scenery if whatever happens does … uh, happen.

Depreciated asset

It’s easy to forget just how dangerous “That ’70s Line” was with Toffoli, Jeff Carter, and Tanner Pearson.

Toffoli’s bad luck (particularly in 2018-19, when a 5.8 shooting percentage translated to a disappointing 13 goals) makes it even easier to forget that, in the grand scheme of things, he can help a team win.

The offense may come and go, but Toffoli brings value as an all-around player. His possession stats are consistently strong, this season included, and he looks better and better as you dig deeper (and, ideally, not get too preoccupied with one night where he has a -4 rating).

If you’re more of a visual learner, glance at Evolving Hockey’s multi-season RAPM chart for Toffoli and you’ll see that Toffoli can bring value even when he isn’t scoring:

A smart team could either a) extend Toffoli after trading him, maybe before his true value is clear or b) mitigate risks of him not fitting in by going through a trial run in the form of a “rental.” With Toffoli’s value being arguably artificially low, a contender could get a steal.

Royal reality

Considering their still-quite-recent two Stanley Cup victories, and the combined $21M AAV of Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar, it’s understandable if the Kings still don’t want to embrace the reality of a rebuild.

To be fair, McLellan’s seemingly restored some of the Kings’ former luster as puck hogs, even if the standings don’t make that clear. The Kings rank at or near the top five in a wide variety of underlying stats at Natural Stat Trick from expected goals to Corsi to controlling high-danger scoring chances, yet mediocre shooting luck and terrible goaltending doom Los Angeles. You can see how an organization might simple wonder what might happen if some of those bounces balance out, and if so, maybe Toffoli could be part of a playoff run.

If you zoom out, it’s more and more difficult to deny that a soft reboot is in order. By the time the Kings sort everything out, Toffoli may start to leave his prime. Los Angeles should be willing to make tough decisions to move on from good players, and such tough decisions might mean saying goodbye to Toffoli, along with Alec Martinez. It was the right — if again, painful — choice with Jake Muzzin, and likely would be the same with Toffoli.

***

A Toffoli trade wouldn’t necessarily be simple, but it’s still easy to see why the winger, the Kings, and a prospective buyer would all benefit from such a move.

MORE:
• Toffoli interview from back in Nov. 2017
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Which Kings can bounce back from last season’s meltdown?

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Each day in the month of August we’ll be examining a different NHL team — from looking back at last season to discussing a player under pressure to identifying X-factors to asking questions about the future. Today we look at the Los Angeles Kings.

While every team hopes a few players can rebound from disappointing seasons, the Kings are hoping to evoke prime, funny hair-era Dennis Rodman by gobbling up plenty of rebounds next season (or to be more sport-appropriate, like peak Espo?).

Let’s consider the biggest X-factor for the Kings: can these players rebound in 2019-20?

Anze Kopitar: In 2017-18, Kopitar was a Hart Trophy finalist, scoring 92 points and being an all-around demon. A year later he, uh, finished 38th in the Lady Byng voting and only managed 60 points.

Maybe the Kings just need to admit that Kopitar is no longer Superman. Yes, he dragged Slovenia to an impressive run in the 2014 Winter Olympics, or was a force during two Stanley Cup victories, but he’s about to turn 32 on Aug. 24. It’s time to start easing his burden, like fellow perennial Selke candidate Patrice Bergeron. Instead, the Kings kept asking for more and more from Kopitar, including having him start 58.6 percent of his shifts in the defensive zone in 2018-19, easily his career-high.

The aging curve is cruel, but the Kings should at least look at ways to dull its sharp edges.

Drew Doughty: Doughty experienced a Kopitar-like trajectory: better-than-ever offensive numbers in 2017-18, then just about everything plummeted in 2018-19.

Personally, I compare Doughty’s struggles to that of P.K. Subban; it’s just difficult to believe that Doughty’s fallen this far from being Norris-caliber. He won’t turn 30 until December, and while Doughty’s (and, to an extent, Kopitar’s) contract is absolutely terrifying over the long haul, I expect a healthy rebound in 2019-20. Also like Kopitar, I don’t expect a rebound to 2017-18 levels, however.

Jonathan Quick: The good news is that Quick has a decent chance of bouncing back from an abysmal .888 save percentage. The bad news is that it’s possible that his improvement might be offset by Jack Campbell (.928) and Calvin Petersen (.924) sinking closer to average.

Most signs point to Quick’s 2018-19 meltdown being an outlier. Then again, Quick does rely heavily on athleticism, so what if that’s slipping at age 33?

[MORE: 2018-19 review | Three Questions | Kings’ rebuild | Under Pressure

Tyler ToffoliIt’s not perfect, but a shooting percentage far below 10 is usually a sign of a forward who’s had especially bad luck, while something above 20 shows that they were on a hot streak they won’t duplicate.

That thought explains why Toffoli is the easiest rebound to point to, as he should shoot at a much higher rate than last season’s dismal 5.8 percent. Toffoli is also entering a contract year, so motivation shouldn’t be in short supply.

Jeff Carter and Ilya Kovalchuk: These two (once?) highly skilled players are tougher to feel optimistic about.

With Carter, it’s simply hard to believe that he’s healthy. Honestly, it’s surprising he suited up for 76 games last season. If his lower-body (full body, really?) issues are behind him, who knows? Still, I can’t help but be troubled by how rarely Carter shot the puck last season.

Then again, Toffoli was the only King with more than 200 SOG last season (226), so this is one of the many cases where it’s tempting to throw out all numbers from that miserable 2018-19 campaign.

Ilya Kovalchuk would probably sign off on the “let’s just forget last year” idea.

It’s tempting to give Kovalchuk a mulligan, as he sometimes found himself a healthy scratch last season as part of the head-scratching Willie Desjardins era. On the other hand, Kovalchuk didn’t score anywhere near enough to justify lousy all-around play, and at 36, he simply might be done.

***

The 2018-19 disaster makes a lot of Kings’ numbers difficult to weigh, and 2019-20 a challenge to predict. Yet, even an optimist would struggle to get too excited about the mess Todd McLellan has been asked to clean up.

Ultimately, rebounds (or a lack thereof) stand as a big X-factor for the Kings.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

The Buzzer: Henrique back in Jersey, McAvoy channels Howe

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Players of the Night:

Adam Henrique, Anaheim Ducks: Henrique had a goal — a beauty of a goal — and an assist in his return to New Jersey, just three weeks after being dealt there. His Ducks didn’t get the last laugh though. The Devils had a solid third-period comeback to win 5-3.

Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins: Who doesn’t like a Gordie Howe hat trick? McAvoy certainly liked his tonight. He scored the game-winner, assisted on two goals and fought Pierre-Luc Dubois to cap off the feat.

Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings: Quick stopped 36-of-37 to end the Philadelphia Flyers six-game winning streak and ended the Kings’ three-game losing streak. The Kings have been very good this season and Quick has been front and center in that.

Highlights of the Night:

For this one, we start by going back to New Jersey and we go back to Henrique’s sensational goal against his former club.

Jesper Bratt scored this cheeky yet wicked wrist shot for the Devils tonight:

Brian Elliott didn’t have much luck against the Kings tonight, but he produced quite the glove save:

Factoid of the Night:

MISC: 

Scores:

Kings 4, Flyers 1

Devils 5, Ducks 3

Bruins 7, Blue Jackets 2

Avalanche 4, Penguins 2

Oilers 5, Sharks 3


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

Tyler Toffoli on Kings’ coaching change, celebrity encounters (PHT Q&A)

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There’s never any love lost when the Los Angeles Kings and Anaheim Ducks meet. As we saw on Tuesday night, it doesn’t matter when those teams get together, the emotions will be incredibly high.

In what was probably the game of the young season, the Kings edged the Ducks 4-3 in overtime. It’s an easy game for the players to get up for, and it’s certainly one of the NHL’s most underrated rivalries.

“I read up on a couple things the day after the game and one of the fans was saying that if it was two Canadian teams it would be one of the most talked about rivalries going on,” Kings forward Tyler Toffoli told PHT on Friday. “It’s kind of funny, but I think for us as two teams, it’s definitely a game that we look forward to. It’s a big game, a conference game, division game, and we’re happy we got the win.”

The Kings and Ducks rivalry is also part of LA’s partnership with Delta Air Lines. Toffoli is one of the ambassadors involved with the Kings Class fan program, a season-long promotion that offers fans the opportunity to win experiences such as traveling to see the team take on the Washington Capitals in D.C. later this month.

Toffoli also appears in an ad with Kings mascot Bailey, though it’s brief and he didn’t get any lines.

“Well, Bailey stole the show and he did a good job of getting us through it. I did my part and I thought I did a really good job there,” Toffoli joked.

We spoke with Toffoli about the Kings’ off-season coaching change, appreciating winning, some of his celebrity encounters and more.

Enjoy.

Q. Going from Darryl Sutter to John Stevens, this is your first coaching change at the NHL level, was it a pretty seamless switch considering John’s been there for a number of years?

TOFFOLI: “Yeah, that definitely helped, but also in the summer Johnny did a good job of staying in touch with all the guys from last year and previous years — just seeing how summer was going, how training was going,  just talking about what he had planned for this season coming in. I think guys have done a really good job of not only training in the summer but buying in to what Johnny wanted to bring in early on in the season here.”

What’s different about John’s approached compared to Darryl’s?

“John’s just doing a good job of getting all the players involved. He’s doing a good job of bringing the right emotion in the games and just staying with us. I think everybody’s buying into the system and I think we’ve done a really good job of when we’ve been getting down in games, just staying together as a group — not just the players, but the coaches. We’re just really positive throughout games.”

Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown are having bounce-back seasons. What are you seeing in their games this season that’s contributing to a return to form?

“I think their chemistry together has been really good. I think Brownie’s done a great job of taking the leadership role of doing a really good job on the power play. He’s just been playing good hockey so far this season. Those two have done a good job and the rest of us have just been following along and just sticking together.”

Your first two years in the league you go to the conference final and then win a Stanley Cup. The last three years haven’t been so memorable. How much did the last three seasons show you just how difficult it is to win in the NHL?

“Definitely, I’ve learned a lot. I’ll never take for granted what those first two years brought for myself because some guys never get a chance to win — not only win, but make it that far in the playoffs. It’s one of those things where I miss and I want to do a really good job of helping our team make it that far again because it’s the best time, it’s the funnest time for all the guys, and winning is the best feeling.”

Regarding your line mates, we know about Tanner Pearson, but what about Adrian Kempe? How has he been able to jump in there and mesh so well?

“He’s done a really good job of stepping in for Jeff [Carter]. When he got hurt it was the next guy to step in and step up and do a job. And I think Adrian’s done a really good job of using his speed, just playing some really good hockey for us and it’s obviously one the big reasons why we’ve been successful so far this season.”

I want to go back to that crazy overtime goal versus the Bruins. You’re lining up there. There’s 0.9 seconds to go. You’ve got to be thinking there’s no way to beat the clock there, right? No matter how perfect the draw is?

“It was one of those things… We line up for that at the end of games, people do it all the time. Going in we just wanted to try and get a shot off as quick as possible, either Drew [Doughty] or myself. Kopi snapped it back so quickly and I got it off as fast as I could and it went in. It was one of those things. It was crazy and the emotions were definitely flowing at the time.”

I watch it and I’m surprised at Tuukka Rask’s position. You have a left-hand shot taking the draw on his off-side and then Tanner on the left wing. Can’t believe Rask wasn’t thinking of you as a possibility.

“I think it was just one of those things where he maybe didn’t think of anything because there wasn’t that much time left. But it happened so fast. I’m not going to complain about it. We’re not going to complain about getting that extra point in overtime. We’re just going to take it and run with it.”

Finally, having lived in LA for a few years what’s the coolest celebrity story you’ve got?

“My fiancee works for the Dodgers so when I go to some of those games I get to meet some pretty cool people. I’ve met Magic Johnson before. Tommy Lasorda is cool to talk to. He’s super intense and when I get to talk to him he’s very intimidating. There’s definitely a lot of people you see around. They just walk around like they’re normal people when they’re by the beach with us.”

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

Looking to make the leap: Jordan Weal

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Fighting to eventually win two Stanley Cups is worth the cost of taking risks, but the Los Angeles Kings’ farm system has seen consequences from regular trade deadline moves.

Jewels From the Crown took a look at how much shallower the Kings’ prospect pool has become, something that seems clearer after the very clear graduations of scorers Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson.

That said, there are still a couple prime-age players looking to make a dent on the NHL roster, including forward Jordan Weal.

It’s about that time for Weal. The 23-year-old was a third-rounder (70th overall) back in 2010, and he’s shown a solid knack for putting up points at the AHL level.

After scoring 70 points for the Manchester Monarchs in 2013-14, he nearly matched that output last season with 69 points. He really took off during the 2015 Calder Cup playoffs, scoring 22 points in 19 postseason games.

Weal thinks he has what it takes to take the next step, as NHL.com noted during his strong AHL playoff run.

“They have a great team up there and it’s really a great organization,” Weal said. “I can’t ask for more. They’ve given me lots of opportunity to play pro and get drafted and I think I’m ready to take the next step and play with them. But you never know. It’s tough to crack a team like that.”

Unlike Nick Shore and Andy Andreoff, Weal has yet to get his first taste of NHL action. The 2015-16 season represents his best chance to change that, especially after a strong finish with the Monarchs.