Taylor Hall

Fumbling Flames must not panic — certainly not with Gaudreau

1 Comment

Things are pretty miserable for the Calgary Flames right now.

After suffering their fifth consecutive loss, Calgary saw its current spot solidified: out of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, if they began today. They’re “below .500” at 10-11-3, and whenever they need to add insults to their injuries, they merely need to glance at the latest snarky update about James Neal vs. Milan Lucic.

Johnny Gaudreau (and to an extent, Sean Monahan) haven’t been immune to tough times, either. Their lackluster play relative to their usual work is a cause for concern.

One might look at, say, Gaudreau’s RAPM chart from 2018-19 (via Evolving Hockey):

Then compare it to the slow start so far in 2019-20:

And start to wonder if there are deeper concerns than merely a star player experiencing a slump that also is extending to a big chunk of the team around him, one that came into 2019-20 with pretty high expectations.

That’s when things start to get a little bumpy. On Monday, The Athletic’s Darren Haynes goes as far as wonder: if it’s time for the Flames to trade Gaudreau (sub required)?

Amusingly, in arguing that the Flames waited too long to trade Jarome Iginla, Haynes uses basically the exact same phrasing I would deploy to talk Calgary off the ledge if there was any notion of trading the superstar winger.

Iginla’s situation remains a textbook example of the perils of listening to the heart, not the head, when it comes to the handling of star players on a team getting worse, not better, or underperforming and in need of a shake-up.

For those who actually need it, here’s why the Flames would be using anything but their heads in the hypothetical knee-jerk reaction of trading away Johnny Gaudreau.

1. Obvious buy-low situation for other teams

Any team pondering a rash decision with a player should do one almost-agonizingly obvious thing: look at their shooting percentage, and general luck.

Ding, ding: Gaudreau’s shooting percentage is just 7.8 so far in 2019-20, well below his career average of 12.5, and a far cry from last season’s 14.7. On-ice shooting percentage is a decent (but not perfect) quick-reference way to see if a playmaker’s passes aren’t resulting in as many goals as usual, and Gaudreau is cold there, too, with a nine-percent mark versus his career average of 10.6 percent.

Basically every sign (including PDO) makes this point: if this sustained for all of 2019-20, it would be easily the unluckiest in Gaudreau’s career. As we’ve learned from players ranging from Taylor Hall to Jeff Skinner, the best way to become a notoriously ridiculed GM is to trade someone when their value is at an all-time low.

2. The Flames’ overall luck has been bad, too.

In 2018-19, quite a few Flames enjoyed the best years of their careers, with Mark Giordano finally winning a Norris Trophy and Elias Lindholm loving life with Gaudreau and Monahan. The problem with career years is that, sometimes, you won’t be able to repeat them.

The truth about Calgary is likely somewhere between the red-hot run of the 2018-19 regular season and the ice-cold 2019-20 start.

The instinct might be to make a bold move to shake things up, but that’s exactly the type of situation that could lead to other teams taking advantage of your desperation.

3. Gaudreau is a steal

Thanks to bargains on other second-contract stars like Nathan MacKinnon (somehow $6.3M AAV through 2022-23), Johnny Gaudreau’s contract isn’t the biggest steal in the NHL. That said, Gaudreau carrying a $6.75M AAV through 2021-22 is still “maybe you should have a little talk with your agent” material.

At 26, Gaudreau remains deep in his prime, and at an attractively cost-controlled price. Giving up on that value because of a brief swoon is the sort of mistake that makes you an eternal — and, honestly, justified — punchline on social media.

4. Gaudreau is really popular

Flames GM Brad Treliving has been described as a “riverboat gambler,” but trading Gaudreau would probably be close to losing his deed in a bad bet than even losing his shirt.

Trading away Gaudreau wouldn’t just run the risk of being a bad hockey move and a bad bit of cap management. It would also be a dangerous PR gamble for a team that’s already dealing with some frustrated fans.

***

Look, the truth is that the Flames might not be quite as potent as they thought they were. That’s a bummer, and it’s understandable that they might grasp for answers, but panicking would likely only make things worse — especially if that meant parting ways with Gaudreau.

Frankly, it would be a troubling sign if they’d even consider it.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

PHT Morning Skate: Perry at 1,000 games; underappreciated Teravainen

Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

Corey Perry reflects on his career after reaching the 1,000-game mark Wednesday night. [NHL.com]

• The power play has garnered a lot of attention, but the Penguins’ penalty kill has been outstanding. [Pensburgh]

• Meanwhile, the Sabres’ PK is just not working. [Buffalo News]

• After a collision with Nikita Kucherov last week in Sweden, Vladimir Sobotka will be out 4-6 weeks with a lower-body injury. [Buffalo Hockey Beat]

Jake DeBrusk and David Pastrnak have teamed up to be quite the video game duo. [Bruins Daily]

• It was only one win, but the Sharks’ confidence is growing after beating the Oilers on Tuesday. [NBC Sports Bay Area]

• Why Teuvo Teravainen has been the Hurricanes’ most under appreciated player, according to Rod Brind’Amour. [News and Observer]

• Meet Emilie Castonguay, the NHL’s rare female agent who has top draft prospect Alexis Lafreniere as a client. [USA Today]

• Wild GM Bill Guerin is staying patient…for now. [Pioneer Press]

• “In a notice of civil claim filed with the B.C. Supreme Court on Oct. 22, Jason Garrison claimed his advisors failed to take his circumstances into account while selling him expensive policies he did not need.” [Surrey Now Leader]

• Could the Flames be a fit for Taylor Hall? [Flames Nation]

• Breaking down the 2020 Winter Classic jerseys for the Stars and Predators. [Hockey by Design]

• Jets rallying around turbulent start to season. [Winnipeg Free Press]

• Philippe Myers is turning into an underrated favorite on the Flyers’ roster. [Philadelphia Sports Nation]

• A look back at the “Lisa on Ice” episode of The Simpsons, 25 years later. [SI.com]

————

Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

Devils, Hall to discuss contract; Byfuglien situation remains complicated

The New Jersey Devils and Taylor Hall will continue discussions for a new contract while the team is in Calgary for a game against the Flames Thursday

During a Wednesday appearance on NBCSN, NHL Insider Darren Dreger reported that Hall’s agent, Darren Ferris, made the trip to Calgary to begin negotiations. Dreger did mention that the public should not read too much into the meeting as both sides have had an open dialogue for quite some time.

Dreger went on to say that until this point, there hasn’t been meaningful talk around the parameters of a contract extension. Hall, 27, is in the final year of his deal and will reach unrestricted free agency on July 1, 2020 if he remains unsigned.

The Devils originally acquired Hall in the summer of 2016 when they shipped defenseman Adam Larsson to Edmonton in a one-for-one swap. Hall went on to win the 2018 Hart Trophy as a member of the Devils.

Byfuglien Update

Dreger mentioned that there is no definitive timeline on Dustin Byfuglien’s recovery from surgery and that it could be anywhere from three to four months. The bruising defenseman remains suspended, but Winnipeg Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff is stuck in a holding pattern due to salary cap implications if Byfuglien were to return.

If Byfuglien’s camp files a grievance to recoup some of the lost salary, then a complicated situation could become problematic in Winnipeg.

Rebuild in Detroit

The painful start to the season for the Detroit Red Wings might be just the beginning of an excruciating process.

Dreger mentioned during the first intermission on Wednesday Night Hockey that Steve Yzerman’s goal is to draft in premium positions in at least two, maybe three straight seasons. The top priority for the Wings organization will be to scout in both North America and overseas.

The plan is to build a strong foundation through the draft to set the organization on the right path for long-term success.

Rangers willing to listen

As for the Rangers, Jeff Gorton made several attempts to speed up the rebuild this summer when he acquired Jacob Trouba, signed Artemi Panarin and drafted Kappo Kaako. However, the message Gorton is sending to the New York fanbase is patience, according to Dreger.

Additionally, Dreger mentioned that the Rangers will not necessarily be aggressive this season on the trade market, but they are willing to listen if the right ‘hockey deal’ comes along and makes sense in regards to their long-term plan. The franchise wants to create a healthy environment for its young talent to develop in and eventually prosper.

PHT Morning Skate: Pavelski showing worth to Stars; Can Pens land Taylor Hall?

2 Comments
Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

• ESPN asked 50 anonymous NHL players questions like: “Would you feel comfortable appearing in a national ad campaign?” Some answers may surprise you. (ESPN)

• Here’s why the Wild are in really big trouble. (Hockey Wilderness)

• How important is leadership in hockey? (Defending Big D)

• Things haven’t gone smoothly in Dallas for Joe Pavelski, but he’s finally starting to show his worth. (Dallas Morning News)

• Who is a better option for the Oilers between the pipes, Mike Smith or Mikko Koskinen? (Oilers Nation)

• The story of how a pick and a stick pushed LA Kings legend Dave Taylor. (Frozen Royalty)

• The Golden Knights have had their struggles with overtime. (Sinbin.Vegas)

Ryan Getzlaf is adjusting to life with new head coach Dallas Eakins. (Anaheim Calling)

Jonathan Toews is starting to get back on track after a rocky start to the season. (Chicago Tribune)

• Swedish goalie Linus Ullmark wants to make sure the Buffalo Sabres’ weekend trip through Stockholm is a memorable one. (Buffalo Hockey Beat)

• Should the Penguins be dreaming about landing Taylor Hall? (Pensburgh)

• Lightning fans have been frustrated by an under-achieving team so far this season. (Raw Charge)

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

Flyers’ Couturier pulled off ‘The Forsberg’ move in shootout

Philadelphia Flyers center Sean Couturier does just about everything well, hockey-wise. One of these years, you’d expect him to win a Selke.

But you don’t necessarily think of Couturier as a shootout wizard. Don’t get me wrong, he’s perfectly passable in that area, yet it was surprising to see him pull off the patented, stamp-worthy move of former Flyer Peter Forsberg to help Philly beat the New Jersey Devils 4-3 via that shootout.

You can watch Couturier’s version of “The Forsberg” in the video above this post’s headline.

It wasn’t the only notable goal from a fairly busy game, either, as Taylor Hall showed that he’s putting a great effort out there — even if the team results haven’t come through — by scoring a goal after being hit from behind:

That game also featured Kyle Palmieri sticking up for Jack Hughes after a big Matt Niskanen hit (with mixed results, but still), so yeah, fairly eventful for a random Friday game in November.

MORE:
• Pro Hockey Talk’s Stanley Cup picks.
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.