Ryan Ellis

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The Buzzer: van Riemsdyk helps Flyers rally; Drouin continues great start

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Three Stars

1. James van Riemsdyk, Philadelphia Flyers. With less than 10 minutes to play the Flyers trailed by a pair of goals and looked to be headed to a tough a loss against the Columbus Blue Jackets. It was at that point that they rallied with five goals in the remaining nine minutes to steal a 7-4 win and win their third game in a row. van Riemsdyk was one of the many stars for the Flyers, scoring a pair of goals and adding an assist in the win. His second goal of the game was the game-tying goal late in the third period.

2. Jonathan Drouin, Montreal Canadiens. Big win for the Canadiens on Saturday night as they handed their arch-rivals from Toronto a 5-2 loss. Drouin played the starring role with a pair of goals to continue what has been a great start to the season for him. He is now up to five goals and 10 total points in the Canadiens’ first 11 games and looks like he could be on his way to a much-needed breakout season in Montreal.

3. Roman Josi, Nashville Predators. Josi has been outstanding for Nashville so far this season and had one of his best games on Saturday with a goal and two assists in a come-from-behind 3-2 overtime win against the Tampa Bay Lightning. That performance gives him 13 points on the season and puts him in a tie for the team lead in scoring alongside Ryan Ellis. That puts the Predators in the rather uncommon position of having their top two-scorers both being defenders.

Other notable performances on Saturday

  • Andrei Svechnikov scored a pair of goals for the Carolina Hurricanes as they handed the disappointing Chicago Blackhawks another defeat. Read all about the Blackhawks’ struggles here.
  • David Pastrnak scored his league-leading 11th goal and Tuukka Rask recorded his second shutout of the season to help the Boston Bruins defeat the St. Louis Blues in a Stanley Cup Final rematch. Read more about it here.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins were able to get a couple of forwards — Bryan Rust and Nick Bjugstad — back on Saturday night and they made an immediate impact. Rust scored one of their goals in a 3-0 win over the Dallas Stars. Matt Murray stopped all 25 shots he faced to record the shutout.
  • Alex Stalock stopped 30 shots and five different Minnesota Wild players scored goals in a 5-1 win over the Los Angeles Kings.
  • Adam Henrique scored his sixth goal of the season for the Anaheim Ducks as they picked up an impressive 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche.
  • Josh Morrissey and Bryan Little scored the goals for the Winnipeg Jets as they rallied late to defeat the Calgary Flames in the 2019 Heritage Classic in Regina, Saskatchewan. Read more about the game here.

Highlights of the Night

Kevin Hayes was one of the Flyers’ big offseason acquisitions, signing a massive contract after his free agent rights were acquired in a trade. He made a big impact on Saturday, scoring a shorthanded game-winning goal. It was an absolutely beautiful play, too.

Speaking of beautiful game-winning goals, here is Montreal’s Joel Armia scoring just seven seconds into the third period against Toronto.

Ellis scored the game-winning goal for Nashville on the power play, and he made it look easy.

Blooper of the Night

Dominik Kahun scored his first goal as a member of the Penguins on Saturday night and it officially goes in the books as the game-winning goal. It was a pretty bizarre play.

Factoids

  • The bright spot for the Avalanche on Saturday is Nathan MacKinnon extending his season-opening point streak to 11 games, the fifth-longest in franchise history and longest since the team relocated to Denver. [NHL PR]
  • Pastrnak is the eight player in the past 27 years to score at least 11 goals in his team’s first 10 games. [NHL PR]
  • Dougie Hamilton has 12 points for the Hurricanes in their first 11 games, the most for a Hurricanes/Whalers defender through the same number of games since the 1984-85 season. [NHL PR]
  • Saturday was the anniversary of Wayne Gretzky, then a member of the Los Angeles Kings, becoming the first and only player in NHL history to record his 2,000th career point. [NHL PR]
  • Flames goalie David Rittich stopped 43 out of 45 shots on Saturday night, the most saves ever made by a goalie in an NHL outdoor game. It is also one save shy of his career high. [NHL PR]

Scores

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Boston Bruins 3, St. Louis Blues 0
Montreal Canadiens 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Nashville Predators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (OT)
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Dallas Stars 0
Minnesota Wild 5, Los Angeles Kings 1
Anaheim Ducks 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Winnipeg Jets 2, Calgary Flames 1 (OT)

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Learn more about John Carlson’s league-leading start

As talented as Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson is, it’s still pretty mind-blowing that he’s leading all NHL scorers – not just fellow blueliners – with 20 points in 11 games.

It’s a pretty comfortable lead, too, at least considering how early we still are in the 2019-20 season. David Pastrnak and Connor McDavid are tied for second place with 17 points, making Carlson’s five goals and 15 assists that much more impressive.

This post aims to dig a little deeper on this red-hot start.

Before we delve into the esoteric, let’s take a moment to ruminate on just how special this start really is. A factoid like this helps it sink in a bit:

[Tuesday’s Buzzer has a lot of other Carlson factoids.]

Luck and skill

Carlson’s five goals come on 23 shots on goal, which translates to a 21.7 shooting percentage. That would be too high of a shooting percentage for most non-Mario Lemieux forwards to maintain, let alone a defenseman. Carlson’s career shooting percentage is 6.1, although he’s been higher the past two seasons (7 percent in 2018-19, and 6.3 in 2017-18).

Even Carlson was laughing at some of his luck lately, including after an empty-netter, one of his two goals from Tuesday’s 5-3 Caps win against the Flames:

With 15 of his 20 points being assists, his very high 18.5 on-ice shooting percentage is just as relevant. Carlson’s career average is 10.1, so you’d expect fewer goals to come from Carlson’s passes going forward.

Still, one cannot ignore that Carlson’s shown plenty of scoring ability over the years. Carlson scored 15 goals and 68 points in 2017-18 and 13 goals and 70 points in 2018-19, so he’s obviously been able to fill up the scoresheet as his role has become more and more prominent with Washington. He finished just short of being a Norris Trophy finalist in 2018-19, as he finished fourth in voting.

If healthy, Carlson seems like a strong candidate to win his first Norris if he plays the rest of the season at “only” a 70-ish point pace. That’s especially true since he’s improved as an all-around player with better possession stats since 2017-18.

Gunslinger

So, yeah, Carlson will cool down … but there are elements of his game, and the system around him, that could help him be a dangerous defensive scorer for an extended period of time.

For one thing, he’s not afraid to shoot. Carlson’s 445 SOG in 173 games since 2017-18 ranks eighth among NHL defensemen.

Not only might that result in goals, but also the sort of rebounds and chaos that can help generate assists. As J.J. Regan notes for NBC Sports Washington, the Capitals have been more focused on shot volume from defensemen under Todd Reirden, and it only makes sense that such a mentality would benefit a gifted scorer like Carlson.

“We’re switching more to shooting the puck whenever you have a chance or a lane,” Jonas Siegenthaler said. “A couple years ago, you were always looking for the next play or a green shot.”

Fast starts

Chalk it up to being fresher earlier in the season, the Capitals typically being comfortably placed atop the standings late in seasons, or some combination of such factors, but either way, Carlson’s career split stats indicate that he’s generally been a strong starter.

His best months tend to be in October, November, and December. If you believe that “recency bias” creeps into awards voting, than it’s something to think about for Carlson’s Norris push if he once again winds down a bit toward the end of the season.

***

Carlson’s 20 points stand as a considerable lead among NHL defensemen, as Nashville’s Ryan Ellis is a distant second with 12. For all we know, Carlson might break the Capitals’ single-season points record for a defenseman, which Larry Murphy set with 81 in 1986-87.

Even if Carlson slows down close to that 70-point range (or gets injured), it’s been really impressive to watch, to the point that sometimes you watch his numbers go up and start laughing to yourself just like Carlson after his empty-net goal.

MORE:
• Pro Hockey Talk’s Stanley Cup picks.
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

How Duchene, Predators looked in win against Wild

After Minnesota went up 2-1 heading into the second intermission, it looked like the Minnesota Wild might just steal one from the Nashville Predators during the Preds’ home opener. To add frustration to the situation, Nashville’s power play squandered some early opportunities, providing an uncomfortable feeling of deja vu.

The third period told a different story, however, as the Predators scored four goals in an impressive final 20 minutes to win 5-2 on Thursday.

Matt Duchene might just be worth those big bucks

As Duchene acknowledged in discussing picking the Predators in free agency, it’s felt like the player and team were destined to join forces for a while now, to the point that it was almost surprising Duchene didn’t release a country music album to accompany word of the signing.

One game can’t justify or condemn a seven-year, $56 million contract, yet … so far, so good.

Duchene finished the win with three assists, and while the last one was on an empty-netter, he was robbed of a different one when Devan Dubnyk made an incredible save on Mikael Granlund:

Predators’ power play isn’t there yet

It’s not fair to get too bent out of shape after one game, especially since the Predators only went 0-for-2. Still, it would have been even sweeter if Duchene and others did some of their damage on the man advantage, as that was a huge weakness for Nashville last season.

Promising early work from P.K. Subban‘s unofficial replacement

The Predators traded away Subban largely so they could afford Duchene (and maybe, partially to open up room for Roman Josi‘s next contract), but GM David Poile also noted that Dante Fabbro‘s cup of coffee in 2018-19 made him feel comfortable with moving on from P.K.

Fabbro didn’t get credited with a goal or an assist on Thursday, but he logged 19:15 TOI, and enjoyed a positive 55.17 Corsi For Percentage at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick.

If Fabbro can keep his head above water while Josi (assist, +3 rating) Ryan Ellis (1G, 1A, +4), and Mattias Ekholm (1A, +2) deliver as expected, the Predators could find a deadly mix of defense, a stable (if not world-class) goaltending pairing, and improved offense.

This team passed its first test.

Long season for the Wild?

Minnesota showed flashes of brilliance, and not just when Matt Dumba flashed a ridiculous shot, or when Jason Zucker showed why so many stats-leaning people couldn’t believe that he was in trade rumors.

Still … it feels like this team just doesn’t “have the horses” to hang with the best of the best (a group the Predators have generally belonged with). Maybe there’s enough here for Bruce Boudreau to squeeze out a playoff berth, but would that be enough?

Even making it that far is a pretty big maybe.

MORE:
• Pro Hockey Talk’s Stanley Cup picks.
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Previewing the 2019-20 Nashville Predators

(The 2019-20 NHL season is almost here so it’s time to look at all 31 teams. We’ll be breaking down strengths and weaknesses, looking at whether teams are better or worse this season and more!)

For more 2019-20 PHT season previews, click here.

Better or worse: Dumping P.K. Subban‘s contract for little return to clear salary cap space for Matt Duchene is an interesting move because it deals from a position of strength (defense) to fill a position of need (forward). The Predators had one of the worst power play units the NHL has seen in quite some time and desperately needed another playmaker up front. Duchene’s contract carries some long-term risk, but it satisfies a short-term need and they still have a really good defense even without Subban. Duchene’s addition, combined with a full season from Mikael Granlund (who should be better than he was after joining the team from Minnesota at the trade deadline) makes this forward group significantly deeper. That probably makes the team a little better overall.

Strengths: It is still on the back end. Even without Subban the Predators still have an outstanding defense with Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm as the established veterans, while also having 2016 first-round pick Dante Fabbro starting to emerge. Behind them, the team has No. 1 caliber goalies in Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros. Rinne is 36 and is going to start passing the torch to Saros, but he hasn’t really slowed down much and is still capable of playing at a high level.

Weaknesses: Until proven otherwise it is the power play unit because there was nothing productive about this unit a year ago. They finished the regular season 31st in success rate, were one of the worst power play units in the league at getting shots on goal, and then followed up that performance by getting completely shut out in their Round 1 loss to the Dallas Stars. You don’t need a great power play unit to win, but you still need to get something from it. The Predators received nothing from theirs all year.

[MORE: X-factor | Under Pressure | Three questions]

Coach Hot Seat Rating (1-10, 10 being red hot): Peter Laviolette is an outstanding coach with a great track record of success in the NHL. He wins a lot, he has taken three different teams to the Stanley Cup Final, and his name is on it once. You can do a heck of a lot worse than him behind the bench, and if you are going to fire someone with that resume you better be darn sure you are getting a clear upgrade. But coaches like him get fired all the time, especially if ownership thinks the team has become stale. The Predators may not be at that point just yet, but the 2018-19 season was a bit of a regression and a small (emphasis on small) step in the wrong direction. Because of that we will put Laviolette’s hot seat rating at a 5, with a chance to move in either direction.

Three Most Fascinating Players: Juuse Saros, Mikael Granlund, and Viktor Arvidsson are three players worth watching.

Saros just because he is going to start seeing more playing time in net. He is probably already good enough to be a clear No. 1 on a significant number of teams around the league and gives the Predators a great 1A and 1B situation with Rinne. He has a .920 save percentage so far in the NHL and is the team’s long-term solution in goal.

Granlund was a huge addition at the trade deadline from the Minnesota Wild but really struggled after the trade, managing just two goals and five assists in 22 games (regular season and playoffs combined). He is better than that and has shown the ability to be a 70-point player in the league. If the Predators can get that version of him it could be a game-changer for their offense.

Speaking of game-changers on their offense, Arvidsson has been one of the most underrated goal-scorers in the league since he became a regular in the Predators’ lineup. The 2018-19 season was his best performance to date, scoring 34 goals in only 58 games. That is close to a 50-goal pace over 82 games. Can he repeat that performance this season?

Playoffs or lottery: Definitely the playoffs, it is just a matter of what kind of playoff team they are going to be. On paper, this still looks like a Stanley Cup contender and potentially one of the best teams in the NHL. They had the same look a year ago only to take a small step back during the regular season and then quietly exit in Round 1 of the playoffs.

More
Predators being bold with term, but are they being smart?
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Where it went wrong for Predators, and how they could fix it

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There has been a changing of the guard in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Pittsburgh Penguins? Out without winning a single game between them.

The Winnipeg Jets, a Western Conference Finalist a year ago and a popular Stanley Cup pick this season? They are finished.

[NBC 2019 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB]

Now the Nashville Predators, one of the top teams in the Western Conference for a couple of years now, have joined them. Just like the Jets, it probably should not be a huge surprise to see them go out as early as they did because something just seemed to be off with this team for much of the season, and especially in the second half.

It’s not hard to find the biggest culprit in their demise this season, either, and it begins with an inconsistent offense that was dragged down by the league’s worst power play unit. It was a unit that hit rock bottom in their Round 1 loss against the Dallas Stars.

To say it was bad would be an understatement.

It wasn’t just bad, it was historically bad. The type of performance that would make even an objective third party with no rooting interest scream at the TV at its overall incompetence.

After finishing the regular season converting on just 12.9 of their power play opportunities, one of the worst marks the NHL has seen over the past 15 years, the Predators went 0-for-the-series against Dallas, failing to score on even one of their 15 power play attempts. This is not something that just happens. The NHL has tracked power play success rates as far back as the 1933-34 season, and the Predators were just the 11th team during that time to get at least 15 power play opportunities in the playoffs and fail to score a single goal. You probably will not be shocked to learn that none of those 11 teams advanced beyond Round 1. You don’t need a great power play to win the Stanley Cup, but you need to get something out of it on occasion.

The Predators got nothing, continuing what turned out to be a season-long trend.

Dallas’ PK deserves a lot of credit here, and especially starting goalie Ben Bishop, but Nashville’s struggles on the power play weren’t a new thing in this series, and there is plenty of evidence to suggest it wasn’t just a run of bad luck — it was simply a bad unit that needs drastically improved.

Not only did they have the NHL’s lowest success rate, but they were only 19th in the league at generating shot attempts on the power play and even worse (24th) at actually getting those attempts on net. If you can’t generate shots, and if you can’t get them on net when you do, you’re not going to score many goals.

Now comes the question on how to address it.

Injuries were a big problem for the Predators throughout the season, with Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, P.K, Subban, and Kyle Turris all missing significant action, and when Turris was on the ice, his production took a cliff dive. It is worth wondering if they are in need of another big-time forward. Forsberg and Arvidsson are outstanding, but they might still need another impact player up front. Maybe a full season from Mikael Granlund will help (he was mostly silent after coming over from the Minnesota Wild in a pre-deadline trade), but even he is not really a player that is going to put the fear of God in an opposing defense. He is very similar to what the Predators’ forward group is already made of — really good and really productive players, but not really a game-changing, impact talent.

If there is one thing to be said about general manager David Poile it is that he is not afraid to swing for the fences in trades. He has made several blockbusters over the past few years and it has played a significant role in building the roster the Predators have today. Would he be willing to make another one, and would he consider dipping into his pool of star defenders and flipping one for another impact talent up front to help strengthen an offense that went stale this year and a power play unit that collapsed on itself from the very beginning of the year?

He already did it once when he traded Seth Jones to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Ryan Johansen, and it might be worth at least considering again. It is a delicate balance to strike because the Predators’ defense, especially their top-four of P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm is a huge part of what has made the team so good. But it is also a very clear strength and could be used to maybe help address what is now looking like a pretty significant weakness.

The other option is to keep your All-Star defense, shed salary elsewhere on the roster (Turris, if you think he is done as a top-six performer; maybe a Craig Smith or Nick Bonino?) and try to position yourself for a run at an Artemi Panarin or Jeff Skinner in free agency.

Whatever path they choose, it would be awfully difficult to come back next season with the same collection of forwards after they struggled so much this season and helped assemble such a dreadful power play unit. They simply need another finisher somewhere on the roster that can bring a level of consistency to the offense and improve a power play that failed the team all season.

Related: Stars eliminate Predators in overtime thriller

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.