Nino Niederreiter

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What is the long-term outlook for the Hurricanes?

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With the 2019-20 NHL season on hold we are going to review where each NHL team stands at this moment until the season resumes. Here we take a look at the long-term outlook for the Carolina Hurricanes.

Pending Free Agents

The Core

This has the potential to be one of the best long-term situations in the league given their collective age (one of the youngest teams in the league), the talent and potential on the roster, as well as the fact that so many of the key players are already signed to long-term deals.

The Montreal Canadiens did them a huge favor this offseason by signing Sebastian Aho to an easily matchable offer sheet, locking him in place for the next five years.

Meanwhile, Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal, Nino Niederreiter, Vincent Trocheck, Jaccob Slavin, Brady Skjei, and Brett Pesce are all signed to long-term deals for at least the next two seasons. Several of them signed beyond that, while only two of those players (Aho and Staal) count more than $5.5 million against the salary cap individually.

Add in the fact that Dougie Hamilton is signed for another year, while Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas are both still on their entry-level deals and will not be eligible for unrestricted free agency for another six seasons and all of the most important players are locked in place.

Out of that core group, Staal is the only one over the age of 30 (currently 31), while the majority of them are still age 26 or younger. That means they are all either in the prime of their careers right now, or are just about to reach their prime years in the coming seasons.

Aho, Svechnikov, and Necas are already outstanding players, and all might still have their best days ahead of them.

Long-Term Needs

Goaltending has been the single biggest question mark for this team for almost a decade now, and that still might be the case.

That is not meant to be a knock on the current duo of James Reimer and Petr Mrazek. They have been solid this season when healthy, and a team could certainly do worse than having those two as their regular goalie tandem.

Given the overall strength of the team — and especially the defense when it is healthy — they do not need a game-saving superstar between the pipes to give them a chance. They simply need solid, steady, consistent play. They are getting that.

The question comes from the fact that I just do not know if either one is a true long-term solution in net, and if they have that solution somewhere else in their organization right now.

Both players are signed through the end of next season.

Other than maybe finding a potentially better long-term option in net, there are not a lot of truly pressing needs here. As mentioned above, their core group is locked in place and the addition of Trocheck from the Florida Panthers just before the trade deadline adds what could be an ideal long-term fit in the second-line center spot.

Long-Term Strengths

This current core has been built around its young defense, and that is still by far the team’s biggest strength both now and in the immediate future.

Slavin, Pesce, Skjei, and Gardiner are all signed through at least the 2022-23 season, while the former three all go through the end of the 2023-24 season. Add in Hamilton, who is signed through the end of next season, and that is as good of a top-five as you will find in the NHL right now. They are all in the prime of their careers, they are all outstanding players that fit the modern NHL game with their mobility and puck skills, and they are the backbone of what has been one of the league’s best teams when it comes to limiting shots and scoring chances over the past four years.

If they can manage to get Hamilton re-signed that would be another major piece in place.

Along with the defense, they also have what look to be two of the most important pieces for any contending team already in place with the duo Aho and Svechnikov — impact forwards that can carry the offense.

Aho is already a sensational player and a top-line star, while Svechnikov might end up being the best of the bunch. Aho’s contract could end up looking like a steal over the next four years, while Svechnikov still has one more year on an entry-level contract, giving them a huge advantage when it comes to adding pieces next season.

MORE:
• Looking at the 2019-20 Hurricanes
Hurricanes surprises and disappointments
• John Forslund tells his quarantine story

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Carolina Hurricanes: This season’s biggest surprises and disappointments

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With the 2019-20 NHL season on hold we are going to review where each NHL team stands at this moment until the season resumes. Here we take a look at the surprises and disappointments for the Carolina Hurricanes.

What happened to Nino Niederreiter‘s offense?

From an overall performance standpoint this might be the single biggest disappointment for this year’s Hurricanes team.

The Hurricanes acquired Niederreiter from the Minnesota Wild a little over a year ago for Viktor Rask, and it looked like an immediate steal. At the time he seemed to be an ideal bounce-back candidate and made an instant impact on the Hurricanes’ lineup during the stretch run of the regular season. He’s been a dependable two-way player for several years and along with strong defensive play and an ability to drive possession, he’s also been a near lock for 20-25 goals and around 50 points every season.

This season, though, his offense took a dive off the cliff.

While his underlying numbers remain outstanding, he managed only 11 goals and 29 points in 67 games. That put him on an 82-game pace for just 13 goals and 35 points. Just for comparisons sake, In 36 games with the Hurricanes a year ago after the trade he recorded 14 goals and 30 points. Given his career track record, as well as the fact that he is still an elite possession-driver, it’s possible that it’s just an outlier of a season driven by some bad luck and a poor shooting percentage. He seems to be a good bet to bounce back next season, but the overall production was still a bit of a disappointment.

Andrei Svechnikov takes a big step toward stardom

I don’t know if this is technically a “surprise” as much as it is the expectation, but the second-year forward (and 2018 No. 2 overall pick) looks like an emerging superstar for the Hurricanes.

After scoring 20 goals as a 18-year-old rookie, he came back in his sophomore season and was on track to hit the 30-goal mark while playing an advanced all-around game for his age.

As if that was not enough, he also brought the Lacrosse goal to the NHL. Not once, but twice.

Dougie Hamilton loses his shot at the Norris Trophy

This is one of those disappointments that is simply the result of bad luck. Nobody is to blame here.

In mid-January Hamilton was playing at a level that almost no other defenseman in the league could match and was starting to emerge as one of the leading contenders for the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenseman. He was leading the Hurricanes’ offense from the blue line, driving possession, and helping to form one of the league’s best defense pairings alongside Jaccob Slavin.

Then a broken bone in his leg sidelined him for months and not only robbed the Hurricanes of one of their best players, it took away his opportunity and winning a major piece of hardware to finally cement his status as one of the league’s best blue-liners.

Justin Williams returned and made an immediate impact

Williams was not with the team at the start of the season as he contemplated his future, but it always seemed inevitable that he was going to return at some point before the playoffs.

The question was always going to be how much he would have left in the tank at age 38 and after missing half of a season.

The answer: A lot.

In his 20 games after re-joining the team Williams played like he never took any time off. He scored eight goals, scored shootout winners, and was the same outstanding all-around player he has been for his entire career. It was like getting a significant in-season trade addition without having to give up anything and made an already deep roster just that much better.

The Jake Gardiner question

The Hurricanes added Gardiner to their roster just before the start of the season, signing him to a four-year, $16.2 million contract to add even more depth to an already loaded defense.

But has it really worked out as hoped or planned?

The traditional box score numbers paint a rather uninspiring picture. His offensive production is down from where it has been at its peak despite getting decent power play time, he is a team-worst minus-24, and has mostly played a third-pairing role in terms of his usage. Probably not what you want from a $4 million per year blue liner.

He has looked a lot better from the analytical side of things where his possession, scoring chance, and expected goal differentials are all quite strong. None of that is a new development for his career.

Gardiner has always been a polarizing player because the analytics always seem to like his performance more than the eye test does. That creates some strong extremes in the narrative surrounding his career and allows him to become either extremely overvalued or undervalued depending on which side of the fence you reside on.

MORE:
Looking at the 2019-20 Hurricanes
Hurricanes long-term outlook
John Forslund tells his quarantine story

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

How Hamilton injury impacts Hurricanes’ trade deadline approach

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Carolina Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell was able to shine some light on his team’s strategy approaching the trade deadline when he spoke with NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti this week. The most intriguing information to come out of the interview was Waddell’s optimism that standout defenseman Dougie Hamilton may not be done for the season and could be in line to return before the end of the regular season. That prognosis is far more optimistic than the recent one from head coach Rod Brind’Amour a couple of weeks ago when he said that the team was expecting that Hamilton would be done for the year.

Hamilton, one of the mid-season contenders for the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best all-around defenseman, has been sidelined since the middle of January after breaking his fibula.

Waddell’s hope that Hamilton could return has made him reluctant to put the defenseman on the long-term injured list, which could create some additional salary cap space to work with at the trade deadline.

Said Waddell, via NHL.com:

“The only thing that I’m cautious about is with Dougie they say 8-12 weeks,” Waddell said Friday. “If he’s 10 weeks, that’s the last week of March. If he was ready to go that last week of the season, the last week of the season, starting on March 28, we have five games. Those might be the most important five games of the year. So if he was ready to come back, you’d want to try to keep space to bring him back.”

Waddell also said the Hurricanes can currently add a contract of more than $5 million before the deadline without having to go into LTIR.

At this point the Hurricanes have played just three games without Hamilton (going 2-0-1, earning five of a possible six points) but they still have a lot of work ahead of them without his services. The Hurricanes are clinging to a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference as of Friday and now have to start a significant stretch of the season without one of their best, most impactful players in Hamilton.

Waddell told NHL.com that he was already in the market for a defenseman prior to Hamilton’s injury, but that the Hamilton’s absence has probably changed the type of player they are looking for. Instead of looking for a more defensive-minded player, Waddell said they are more open-minded on that.

Hamilton is a massive part of the Hurricanes’ defense, and while the unit is still strong overall even without him, there isn’t another player on the blue line that can provide the offensive impact that he does. Jaccob Slavin is the only other defenseman on the roster that currently has more than 16 points this season (he has 23) and no one has his ability with the puck.

There’s also limited options on the trade market that could be available to replace even a fraction of that.

New Jersey’s Sami Vatanen could be intriguing as a rental.

He is not Hamilton, but he might be the most productive blue line rental on the market.

The forward situation

While Waddell tries to figure out how to navigate the blue line situation, the Hurricanes look to be pretty set at forward where they have already made their big in-season addition — the return of veteran forward Justin Williams.

Getting Williams back is a huge bonus for the stretch run because it basically sees them add a top-six forward — one that can still produce offensively while also play a great two-way game — without having to give up anything off of their roster.

The Hurricanes’ forward situation is interesting because that unit of the team doesn’t get a ton of attention for how good it is.

For years the focus from outside has been on the overall strength of their defense (it is a young, talented group with great depth) or the constant question marks that have followed them around in net.

But the trio of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Teuvo Teravainen has become an outstanding foundation to build on long-term, while rookie Martin Necas looks to be on the verge of joining them as an impact core player.

The addition of Ryan Dzingel and return of Williams only strengthens that group.

Something that else that could strengthen them: A second-half bounce-back from Nino Niederreiter.

He was their big in-season addition before the trade deadline a year ago and was outstanding during the stretch run. But he has struggled through a brutal first half this season with only six goals in his first 50 games. He is looking like he could be a healthy scratch for Friday’s game against Vegas.

If he can return to the form he has shown throughout his career — and especially his post-trade performance from a year ago — that might be more important than any outside addition they could possibly make.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

NHL Fantasy Hockey: Henrique, Nelson highlight this week’s top adds

Welcome to our weekly Adds/Drops column, where I focus on highlighting players you should consider grabbing or be concerned about in fantasy leagues. As always, the goal here isn’t to recommend 10 players you must add and five players that need to be dropped. Context is everything and the context of each league is different. What this is instead is a guideline so that if you’re looking to make a change, you have potential players to target and if you see players I’ve suggested to drop, you can evaluate your potential alternates.

Players Worth Adding

Neal Pionk, Jets – D: The shift from the New York Rangers in 2018-19 to the Jets this season has been to Pionk’s benefit so far. In terms of average ice time, he’s only jumped from 21:10 minutes to 22:58 minutes, but most of that increase has come from gaining additional power-play time. He’s gotten off to a strong start in 2019-20 with two goals and six points in 10 games and should continue to put up solid numbers this season.

Jakob Silfverberg, Ducks – RW: Silfverberg couldn’t have asked for a better start with five goals and eight points in nine games. At the least he’s a nice gamble in the short-term, but he might be worth hanging on throughout the season. Silfverberg has never gotten more than 49 points in a single season, but new Ducks coach Dallas Eakins seems comfortable with giving him a sizeable role. As a result he’s averaging 18:13 minutes, up from 17:06 minutes in 2018-19, which is more than any other Anaheim forward.

Brock Nelson, Islanders – C/LW: Nelson has been in kind of an odd pattern in the early portion of the campaign. He’s scored in exactly every other game and for the last six games he’s alternated between recording 0 and 2 points. The end result is that he has four goals and seven points through eight contests this season. He saw his ice time jump to 17:58 minutes in 2018-19 and set a new career-high with 53 points as a result. This season his playing time has inched up further to 18:20 minutes and he might be able to flirt with new career-highs. One key benefit to him is his left wing eligibility despite his primary role being up the middle.

Marcus Pettersson, Penguins – D: Pettersson is might just be more of a short-term pickup to gamble on while he’s hot. He has registered four assists over his last four games. That being said, he is averaging 18:34 minutes this season, including 1:33 minutes per game with the man advantage, so there is a chance that this will end up being a breakout campaign for him. Even if you decide not to grab him at this time, he’s worth checking back in on later to see how the 23-year-old has been developing with the Penguins.

Andre Burakovsky, Avalanche – LW/RW: Burakovsky is something of a roll of the dice at this stage. Burakovsky never recorded more than 38 points in a single season with Colorado, but he already has four goals and eight points in eight games with Colorado. Perhaps this is a case of the change of scenery agreeing with him, but he’s also just averaging 13:49 minutes. Unless his role with the Avalanche expands, it’s hard to see him being a significant offensive contributor in the long run. Still, given how well he’s already done and the potential that the 24-year-old is taking a step up this season, it’s worth taking a chance on him.

Adam Henrique, Ducks – C: This is mostly a case of riding the hot hand. Henrique has four goals and five points in his last four games, so he’s worthy of some short-term consideration. In the long run, he has fringe value in standard leagues. The limiting factor with him is his center-only eligibility given the glut of options up the middle.

Paul Stastny, Golden Knights – C: At this point, Max Pacioretty is owned in 84% of Yahoo leagues while Mark Stone is claimed in 97%, but Stastny is owned in just 38%. Stastny is skating on a line with that duo this season and has done his part. Stastny has four goals and seven points in nine games. If he continues to skate with Stone and Pacioretty, he should have a very good year.

[For more fantasy sports analysis, check out Rotoworld]

Marcus Johansson, Sabres – C/LW: Johansson is coming off two rough campaigns, but 2019-20 is shaping up to be different. After signing a two-year, $9 million contract with the Buffalo Sabres over the summer, he’s scored four goals and seven points in nine games. Johansson has typically been put on the ice with Jeff Skinner, who had 40 goals in his first season with Buffalo and has added another five goals in nine contests in 2019-20. All three of Johansson’s assists so far have been on Skinner goals.

Ian Cole, Avalanche – D: Cole missed the start of the season with a hip injury, but he made his return on Oct. 14th and has made up for lost time with four assists in his last three games. He’s not a particularly exciting defenseman from an offensive perspective, but you could gamble on him while he’s hot. It’s worth adding that he’s also one of the better sources of blocked shots out there, so if your league cares about that category then that’s a great secondary reason to consider grabbing him while he’s hot.

Mikko Koskinen, Oilers – G: Koskinen’s first season with the Edmonton Oilers left plenty to be desired, but he’s been a big part of their early season success. He’s 4-0-0 with a 2.21 GAA and .934 save percentage in four starts. He was a top-tier goaltender in the KHL and now that he’s had a full season to adjust to North America, he might prove to be a solid goaltender in 2019-20.

Players You May Want To Drop

Henrik Lundqvist, Rangers – G: Lundqvist has been on the decline for several seasons now and that descent will likely continue at the age of 37. Through four starts, he’s 1-3-0 with a 3.57 GAA and .906 save percentage. It doesn’t help that while the Rangers did get some very encouraging additions over the summer, they are still not quite a full force contender.

Boone Jenner, Blue Jackets – C/LW: Jenner didn’t exactly wow people last season with his 16 goals and 38 points in 77 games, but the 2019-20 campaign might prove to be worse. Despite the Blue Jackets losing some key forwards over the summer, his ice time has tanked from an average of 17:04 minutes in 2018-19 to 14:27 minutes this season. That’s his lowest minutes per game since 2013-14 when he was a rookie. He has just a goal and no assists through eight games.

Sammy Blais, Blues – LW/RW: Blais enjoyed a strong start to the season with three goals and five points in five games, but he hasn’t recorded a point in three contests. If you picked him up during that hot streak, you should re-evaluate his role now. He’s averaging a modest 14:03 minutes per game, so it’s hard to see him being a major offensive force this season. On the plus side, he is an excellent source of hits, so if you need help in that category, then maybe it’s worth your while to keep him even if he’s not contributing much in other areas.

Nino Niederreiter, Hurricanes – LW/RW: After Carolina acquired Niederreiter from Minnesota during the 2018-19 campaign, he went on a terrific run of 14 goals and 30 points in 36 games. However, a big part of that run was due to his increased role with the Hurricanes. He had averaged 14:37 minutes with Minnesota prior to the trade and 18:17 minutes for the rest of the season. In his first full campaign with the Hurricanes, Niederreiter has fallen back to a level of responsibility he’s more accustomed to. He’s averaging 15:39 minutes and has recorded no goals and three assists in nine games. With his playing time down, he’s also taking fewer shots, from 2.86 shots per game in 2018-19 with Carolina to 2.22 this season. His complete lack of goals can still be partially attributed to bad luck, but unless his role increases, he’s not going to return to the levels of production we saw during his post-trade time with Carolina last season.

Cory Schneider, Devils – G: Schneider has had some highs and some extreme lows over the last few years, but on the whole he’s certainly left plenty to be desired. That trend has continued this season. He has a 0-3-0 record, 4.08 GAA, and .876 save percentage in four games. To make things worse, at least for Schneider owners, Mackenzie Blackwood has rebounded from his own rough start to the campaign. It’s entirely possible that Blackwood will end up getting more starts than Schneider this season. There’s just not a lot to like about Schneider’s outlook right now. 

If you’re looking for fantasy hockey information, Rotoworld is a great resource. You can check the player news for the latest information on any player and insight into their fantasy outlook.

Every week Michael Finewax looks ahead at the schedule and offers team-by-team notes in The Week Ahead. I have a weekly Fantasy Nuggets column where I basically talk about whatever’s captured my attention that week. Gus Katsaros does an Analytics columns if you want to get into detailed statistical analysis. If you’re interested in rookies and prospects, there’s a weekly column on that written by McKeen’s Hockey.

For everything fantasy hockey, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, and follow @Rotoworld_ HK and @RyanDadoun on Twitter.

Stuck on zero: Notable NHL players still searching for first goal

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We are a couple of weeks into the 2019-20 NHL season and there have been some surprising players at the top of the goal-scoring leaderboard, including James Neal, Anthony Mantha, Victor Olofsson, Brayden Schenn, and Erik Haula.

Perhaps just as surprising is the list of players still searching for their first goal, fighting through extended early season slumps.

Every player will go through hot streaks and cold streaks over the course of a season, and when those streaks happen now we tend to pay extra attention to them because there is nothing else around them to hide them. A first line player stuck on zero goals after six or seven games will stick out more than a six-or seven-game drought in the middle of March.

Here are eight notable players still trying to find that first goal. We are limiting this to players that have played in at least six games.

William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights
Games played entering Tuesday:
6
Shots on goal: 16

After scoring 67 goals over the past two seasons Karlsson has gone six games without a goal to open the 2019-20 season. The good news for him: He started each of the past two seasons with zero goals in his first six games before scoring in his seventh game each year.

Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Games played entering Tuesday: 6
Shots on goal: 14

Barkov has become one of the NHL’s best all-around players over the past couple of years and is one of the reasons for optimism in Florida. He has not scored yet this season but he is doing literally everything else, having already recorded five assists while the Panthers are attempting more than 54 percent of the shot attempts when he is on the ice. Only a matter of time before the puck starts finding the back of the net for him.

Nino Niederreiter, Carolina Hurricanes
Games played entering Tuesday: 6
Shots on goal: 13

Getting a full season of Niederreiter is a big reason to like the Hurricanes this season. He was a significant addition in the middle of the 2018-19 season and is an outstanding two-way winger that can defend, drive possession, and help create offense. He is still helping to drive possession at an elite rate. He is not a big-time goal-scorer, but he is always a lock for at least 20 goals.

Joe Pavelski, Dallas Stars
Games played entering Tuesday: 7
Shots on goal: 10

The Stars have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams so far and Pavelski might be their most disappointing player through the first seven games. Not only as he failed to score a goal, but only generating 10 shots on goal in seven games is a concerning sign. Some regression had to be expected from his 38-goal campaign a year ago (he had a career-high shooting percentage at age 34, which was never going to be repeated) but this has to be discouraging. He also has just one assist.

Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils
Games played entering Tuesday: 6
Shots on goal: 21 (combined)

The two recent No. 1 overall picks are two of the most important players on the Devils’ roster from a big picture outlook, and so far both have struggled. Hughes has failed to record a point in his first six games and can not seem to buy a goal. Just another thing that has gone wrong for the Devils in a season where nothing has gone as expected.

Jaden Schwartz, St. Louis Blues
Games played entering Tuesday: 6
Shots on goal: 6

Schwartz had a bizarre 2018-19 season, struggling through one of the worst regular season performances of his career (mostly due to a terrible shooting percentage) before being unstoppable in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The trouble for Schwartz this season (unlike last season) is he is not yet generating shots.

Milan Lucic, Calgary Flames
Games played entering Tuesday: 6
Shots on goal: 4

The Flames will try to sell you on the idea he is doing exactly what they want, providing physical play and serving as some sort of protection for their stars. But man, zero goals, zero points, only four shots on goal, a lot of penalty minutes, a huge contract, and the guy he was traded for (James Neal) can not stop scoring goals for their biggest rival. There is no way that trade is a win at this point.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.