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Sabres, Senators own top odds in 2018 NHL Draft Lottery

By Sean LeahyApr 9, 2018, 12:15 AM EDT
11 Comments

Now that the 2017-18 NHL regular season has officially come to an end and we know the 16 teams who will vie for the Stanley Cup, we also know the 15 teams who will be hoping ping pong balls fall in their favor in order to win the No. 1 selection in June’s entry draft.

The Buffalo Sabres locked up the top odds earlier this week, and here’s how the rest of the teams look heading into the April 28 (NBC, CBC, TVAS) lottery.

Buffalo Sabres: 18.5%
Ottawa Senators*: 13.5%
Arizona Coyotes: 11.5%
Montreal Canadiens: 9.5%
Detroit Red Wings: 8.5%
Vancouver Canucks: 7.5%
Chicago Blackhawks: 6.5%
New York Rangers: 6.0%
Edmonton Oilers: 5.0%
New York Islanders: 3.5%
Carolina Hurricanes: 3.0%
New York Islanders (from CGY): 2.5%
Dallas Stars: 2.0%
St. Louis Blues**: 1.5%
Florida Panthers: 1.0%

• The Senators, via the Matt Duchene trade, have the option to keep their pick and send the Colorado Avalanche their 2019 first-rounder.

• As per the terms of the Brayden Schenn trade, if the Blues’ pick ends up being in the top 10, they have the choice to keep it and send the Philadelphia Flyers their 2019 first-rounder. If not, Philadelphia will get St. Louis’ first-round choice this year.

2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Schedule, Bracket, Streams and More

Via the NHL, the 2018 Draft Lottery will consist of three drawings: the first Lottery Draw will determine the team selecting first overall, the second Lottery Draw will determine the team selecting second overall and the third Lottery Draw will determine the team selecting third overall.

The odds for the remaining clubs will increase on a proportionate basis for the second Lottery Draw, based on which club wins the first Lottery Draw, and again for the third Lottery Draw, based on which club wins the second Lottery Draw.

The 12 teams not selected in the 2018 Draft Lottery will be assigned 2018 NHL Draft selections 4 through 15, in inverse order of regular-season points.

Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, Oliver Wahlstrom, Quinn Hughes and Brady Tkachuk are among the top prizes in this year’s entry draft. This is the third time in five years that the Sabres have owned the top odds. Will the third time finally be the charm?

More: NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs: Round 1 schedule, TV info

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

Tank defense: NHL changes up Draft Lottery format

By Joe YerdonAug 20, 2014, 3:59 PM EDT
56 Comments

If your favorite team is hoping to tank next season to land Connor McDavid in the 2015 NHL Draft, just know their chances of landing the top pick just got worse.

The NHL announced changes to the NHL Draft Lottery that will see the odds of landing the top pick change slightly in 2015 and the lottery process change even more in 2016.

The league says the odds will be adjusted to “more appropriately reflect the current state of competitive balance in the League.” That means if your team has the worst record next season, their chances of landing the No. 1 pick in the lottery go from 25 percent to 20. That in itself is a 20 percent drop in chances to earn the top pick.

As for how the percentages change for all picks, here’s a handy chart via NHL.com:

source:

As you can see, finishing with one of the three worst records no longer pays off as well in the lottery. Meanwhile, the other 11 non-playoff teams all see their chances of landing the No. 1 pick get a boost.

The team most obviously affected by these changes are the Buffalo Sabres. They’re expected to be one of, if not the, worst teams in the league and may stand the best chance of landing McDavid. Now if they wind up with the worst record, their chances of winning the lottery have gotten worse.

Then again, if the Sabres want to look on the bright side of things, if the New York Islanders and/or St. Louis Blues miss the playoffs, their chances of stealing the top pick have improved slightly since they own both of their first-round picks.

Keep those odds in mind because when it’s time for the 2016 Draft Lottery, there will be a drawing for each of the top three picks, not just the first overall selection. If that sounds familiar, it’s because that’s how the NBA handles their draft lottery.

That means if you have the worst record in the league then, you’re not guaranteed either the first or second overall pick and that team could pick as low as fourth overall.

If teams are going to tank to land McDavid or Jack Eichel, they might find out doing so may not work out the way they intended while burning a season trying not to win too much.

Watch Blue Jackets fans have their dreams crushed during draft lottery party

By Joe YerdonApr 11, 2012, 11:14 AM EDT
12 Comments

Take in this video from a Columbus Blue Jackets draft lottery party which was meant to be a celebration of reaping the benefits of being the worst team in the league and a preemptive welcoming party for likely top pick Nail Yakupov.

Of course, those dreams were all dashed when NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly announced the Edmonton Oilers as the winners of the lottery and the first pick overall. The aftermath, as you might expect, was filled with sadness and frustration in Columbus including cries of “Fixed!” and “I hate the Oilers.”

We might as well call Columbus “Mudville” at this rate as there’s no joy there and the (not-so) mighty Scott Howson has struck out on landing the top pick in the draft.

It’s like you can feel each of those fans getting kicked right in the groin after the announcement. Sports are a jerk sometimes.

Fall from grace complete: Minnesota mathematically eliminated from playoff contention

By Joe YerdonMar 26, 2012, 10:23 AM EDT
13 Comments

This season will end the way each of the three previous to it have for the Minnesota Wild: Out of the playoffs.

The Wild’s loss to Washington yesterday mathematically eliminated the Wild from playoff contention and according to Michael Russo of The Star Tribune, things could possibly get worse for the team standings-wise.

That seems like an eternity ago, as does that Dec. 13 game at Winnipeg when the Wild was still first in the league. Now? It is 25th – but one point up on 29th, which would give the Wild the second-best possibility of winning the April 10 draft lottery and the right to pick No. 1 in the June draft. 

The Wild’s fall from grace is one of the more incredible feats we’ve seen this season and it’s impressive for all the wrong reasons.

Hockey Wilderness pointed out after yesterday’s game that Minnesota will be the first team to miss the playoffs after being in first place in December. The Wild were in first place as late as December 17 but since then they’ve gone a paltry 11-26-5. Minnesota won’t be alone in their fall-from-grace shame, however, as the Maple Leafs are on the brink of elimination themselves. Misery does love company after all.

The race for number one… In the 2011 NHL draft

By Joe YerdonMar 6, 2011, 7:30 PM EDT
2 Comments

While attention to the playoff position jockeying is rightfully gathering a lot of attention through most cities in the NHL, there’s a special race of its own developing for the also-rans.

Fans in Ottawa, Denver, Edmonton, and Long Island haven’t had too much to get excited about this year but perhaps the prospect of being able to draft one of the NHL Central Scouting bureau’s top prospects is a reason to have hope for the future. Sure there’s no one guy like John Tavares or Steve Stamkos that stands out above all nor a Taylor Hall vs. Tyler Seguin kind of debate shaping up for 2011, but there’s a host of potential stars that these playoff non-hopefuls can look forward to.

Among the names worth remembering right now there’s top ranked skater from the OHL Gabriel Landeskog, Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson, QMJHL forward Sean Couturier, WHL forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and QMJHL forward Jonathan Huberdeau. When it comes time to draft in St. Paul this summer, those names could be arranged in any order at the top of the draft and with the race for the top pick being as curious to see as the race for the playoffs is the speculation is rampant as to who people believe is the best.

As it stands as of this writing, the race for the best odds in the NHL draft lottery looks this way:

  1. Ottawa – 53 points
  2. Edmonton – 54 points
  3. Colorado – 60 points
  4. NY Islanders – 60 points
  5. Florida – 60 points

With things being as tight there, there’s a new storyline developing in the race for the top pick and it surrounds the Senators and Avalanche. As you recall, the two teams swung a deal at the deadline trading for each other’s starting goalie. Brian Elliott headed to Colorado and continued to be his mediocre self from this season whereas Craig Anderson has been lights out and fantastic in Ottawa. Depending on how you view things as a Senators fan, it’s either great to see the team rally like this or terrible because now they’re not tanking for the top pick.

The Denver Post’s Adrian Dater ruminates about things today and says that the work Anderson is doing in Ottawa helping them win more games might actually help his old team land the top pick in the draft.

Anyway, one of the reasons for paying attention to the rest of the season, for Avs fans, is where they’ll finish in the overall standings. Right now, they have more points than only three teams – Islanders, Oilers and Senators. All three teams are actually playing some of their best hockey of the season right now, and the gap between the Avs and the lowest-place team (Ottawa) was only seven points.

While it’s still likely the Avs will finish ahead of both Edmonton and Ottawa, the Oilers do play the Avs twice more this season, so that six-point gap could be more easily narrowed. That leaves Ottawa maybe only standing in the way of that No. 1 pick, and Anderson’s red-hot goaltending since the trade (though he lost his last start) could make the difference in dropping Colorado to No. 30.

Obviously Anderson isn’t a secret agent working against the Senators and for the Avalanche (or Oilers) to help them get closer to the top pick. If there was a definitive talent at the top of the draft in 2011 perhaps the tinfoil hat brigade could have a leg to stand on, but as it is who would be taken by which teams is anyone’s guess.

If you’d like a really premature scouting report on the 2011 draft, you’d have to think that Edmonton with their wealth of young forward talent in Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, and Linus Omark they’d be looking at defense meaning Sweden’s Adam Larsson would ideally be at the top of their shopping list.

Ottawa has a dearth of young  forward talent in their farm system and haven’t had a great forward drafted since Jason Spezza. Any one of Couturier, Landeskog, and Nugent-Hopkins are possibilities for them.

For Colorado though, they’re a wild card. They could stand to have a little more forward talent but you’d have to bet they’d love to get their hands on Larsson and have him grow up with Erik Johnson along their blue line for the foreseeable future. Consider the Islanders also as a team that would love to get a hold of Larsson. The Panthers would like to get anyone talented at all, period.