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Renovation Watch: First impressions

By James O'BrienOct 9, 2011, 12:34 AM EDT

Every now and then, PHT will glance at the teams who changed the most during the 2011 off-season in Renovation Watch.

With the NHL’s first huge night of games almost over, the hockey world received introductory glances at some radically altered teams. Naturally, first impressions aren’t everything, but here’s a rundown of how remodeled rosters are shaking out through a game or two.

Sabres dominate in both of their games

So far, the Buffalo Sabres are justifying their substantial hype. They dismantled the Anaheim Ducks 4-1 on Friday and then handled a more balanced Los Angeles Kings team 4-2. The Northeast Division title bout could be a real slug fest.

Breezy allows one goal in two contests

The Philadelphia Flyers underwent dramatic roster surgery in the summer and the early results are promising. Ilya Bryzgalov earned a 3-0 shutout against the New Jersey Devils on Saturday and helped the Flyers ruin the Boston Bruins’ Stanley Cup party 2-1. Newcomers Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek and Jaromir Jagr have already registered a point, but holdover Claude Giroux is embracing his push to the headliner role; he already hast two goals.

Panthers blank Islanders in sleepy match between big dreamers

Depending upon who you ask, the Florida Panthers or New York Islanders could be the “sleepers” of the East. The two teams played a yawner tonight, as Jose Theodore helped the Panthers blank the Isles 2-0. Florida is clearly going to get as much value out of Brian Campbell’s whale-like contract as they can – he assisted on both goals and played a whopping 30 minutes tonight.

Heatley and Setoguchi score in their Wild debuts

The Minnesota Wild beat the Columbus Blue Jackets 4-2 in a fight between two renovated teams. The Wild’s off-season additions had a nice debut, as Dany Heatley scored and then assisted on Devin Setoguchi’s goal. Maybe it’s a bit unfair to truly critique Columbus since they’ll play six more games without James Wisniewski, but they’re 0-2-0 so far. The biggest move might be the one they didn’t make; Steve Mason didn’t even make it through the entire game after allowing all four Wild goals in the first two periods.

Renovated Records:

Philadelphia: 2-0-0 (four points)
Buffalo: 2-0-0 (four pts.)
Florida: 1-0-0 (two pts.)
Minnesota: 1-0-0 (two pts.)
Columbus: 0-2-0 (zero pts.)

Winnipeg Jets face two tough road swings and two huge home opportunities

By James O'BrienOct 1, 2011, 9:00 PM EDT

With the 2011-12 season rapidly approaching, the gang at PHT decided to take a look at all 30 NHL teams’ schedules. Each team’s highs and lows will be studied in detail to give you an idea of what the future might hold for each squad.

Note: Mileage figures via On the Forecheck’s “Super Schedule.”

Winnipeg Jets schedule analysis

Total mileage: 44,627 (10th most in NHL, second most in Southeast)

Back-to-back games: 14

Toughest stretches

The Jets play four of their first six games away from Winnipeg, but there are two stretches that jump out as big challenges for the returning heroes.

The first hurdle begins later that month, as the Jets play seven consecutive road games from Oct. 27 to Nov. 8. Four of the seven teams made the playoffs last season, while the Devils, Islanders and Panthers have a shot at being much-improved in 2011-12. The silver lining is there will only be one set of back-to-back games, as they play the Devils on Nov. 5 and Rangers on Nov. 6.

A tough span from January to mid-February will likely be the Jets’ biggest test of the season, though.

Jan. 4: at Montreal
Jan. 5: at Toronto
Jan. 7: at Buffalo
Jan. 10: at Boston
Jan. 12: home vs. San Jose
Jan. 14: home vs. New Jersey
Jan. 16: at Ottawa
Jan. 17: at New Jersey
Jan. 19: home vs. Buffalo
Jan. 21: home vs. Florida
Jan. 23: at Carolina
Jan. 24: at NY Rangers
Jan. 31: at Philadelphia
Feb. 2: at Tampa Bay
Feb. 3: at Florida
Feb. 5: at Montreal
Feb. 7: home vs. Toronto
Feb. 9: at Washington
Feb. 11: at Pittsburgh

Overall, that’s 14 away games and just five home contests, with a four-game road trip and a five-game road trip (that bleeds into seven away games in a span of eight). Things could get really messy if the Panthers and/or Devils are better next season, which is certainly at least a possibility.

Before their final game of the season against Tampa Bay on April 7 at home, they’ll also play four straight away games.

Easiest stretches

On the bright side, the deep valleys are canceled out at least to some degree by some nice runs at home, where they’re surely going to enjoy one of – if not the – best home ice advantages in the NHL.

After a rough October, November gets a little better with four home games in five.

If they want to make the playoffs, the Jets must take advantage of a month almost completely full of home cooking in December. It’s probably easiest to summarize this jaw-dropping run in bullet form.

Starting with their last game in November, the Jets will play five consecutive games at home followed by one road game against Detroit.
The Jets will then enjoy a six-game homestand after that single away game.
Following one visit to Colorado, they’ll finish December with home games against Los Angeles and Toronto.

That’s a whopping 13 home dates in a 15-game span that basically covers the month of December.

After that rough run from January to early February, the Jets get their next big chance (though it’s not as big as December’s run). Beginning on Feb. 17, the Jets will play eight games in a row in Winnipeg. They’ll then play back-to-back games in Western Canada (at Vancouver on March 8 then Calgary the next night). After that, the Jets will host three consecutive home games. That’s 11 out of 13 games at home, giving Winnipeg two major sets of opportunities to make a push for a surprising playoff berth.

Overall outlook

The Jets will deal with some challenges, but the schedule makers did a remarkable job of dealing them a reasonable hand all things considered. They don’t even travel more than every team in their division, as the road-weary Florida Panthers will attest. Dealing with 14 back-to-back games is more or less average across the NHL.

The basic theme is that the Jets have two very tough away runs and two very fortunate home swings. Whatever complaints they might have should be tempered by the friendly periods that counteract the hardships. Considering the situation, they shouldn’t complain at all.

Capitals could deal with small highs and lows during cyclical 2011-12 season

By James O'BrienOct 1, 2011, 5:30 PM EDT

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Note: Mileage figures via On the Forecheck’s “Super Schedule.”

Washington Capitals schedule analysis

Total mileage: 37,969 (10th lowest in the NHL, least in the Southeast)

Back-to-back games: 13

Toughest stretches

The Capitals’ schedule almost seems broken up into segments of mostly home runs and mostly away stretches, making it difficult to pinpoint too many huge streaks. For the most part, there are a lot of little periods that are easier or tougher.

That being said, there are two long runs that seem a little more difficult than others.

Mid-October to mid-November is one of the most challenging periods. They play four of five games on the road to kick things off, alternate a home game, road game and home contest and then are visitors three consecutive times.

Again, every month seems to have its quirks, but one of the standout strings comes from Jan. 18 to Feb. 4. The Caps play six of seven games on the road, with five contests against 2011 playoff teams. After a five-in-six run in February, the last significant stretch comes in March, where they play six of seven away from home again.

Easiest periods

The Capitals play four of their first five regular season games at the Verizon Center. Late November to early December represents a nice opportunity, as Washington plays six of seven at home. January includes a four-game homestand while February features four of five games at home.

March includes a six of seven at-home streak as well as a four-of-five run.

Overall outlook

The Capitals’ schedule is staggered, which might encourage cyclical highs and lows. That being said, they’re a genuine Stanley Cup contender, so it’s likely that they might defy the games in front of them. The schedule’s advantages and disadvantages would become more pronounced if the team suffers serious injuries, though.

Their travel schedule is in the bottom third of the NHL and their back-to-back sets are at a reasonable 13. Forgive the Caps a lull or two (surely someone somewhere will use a schedule-related slump as evidence of a lack of intangibles), but they shouldn’t find themselves in too many rough patches – or gold mines – next season.

Tampa Bay shouldn’t strike out because of their schedule

By James O'BrienOct 1, 2011, 2:30 PM EDT

Note: Mileage figures via On the Forecheck’s “Super Schedule.”

Tampa Bay Lightning schedule analysis

Total mileage: 43,717 (12th most in the NHL, third in Southeast Division)

Back-to-back games: 10

Toughest stretches

The Lightning start the season with a five-game road trip, but that’s balanced out by a solid homestand afterward. Most of November is mixed until late in that month, when things start to go awry. They close the month with two road games, stop in Tampa Bay to host the Rangers and then play four road contests in a row.

Things are pretty even until the end of the season, when Tampa Bay will likely hope they already have a playoff spot locked up. They play three games on the road (Philly, Boston and New Jersey) with two home games in the middle and three more contests away from Tampa, including a finale against the Jets in Winnipeg.

Easiest periods

The Lightning have solid little runs here and there in the first few months, but a stretch from late January to late February is one of their best first ones. They play five home games in a row to end January and start February, followed by a three-game road trip. After that, the Lightning play another four consecutive games at home.

That’s not their biggest opportunity of the 2011-12 season, though. That comes from March 10-24, when they enjoy a season-high seven-game homestand. Only two of the teams they play against in those seven games made the 2011 playoffs and there are no back-to-back games.

Overall outlook

Speaking of back-to-back games, the Lightning are tied for the league’s lowest amount with just 10 sets. They also have the lightest travel schedule of the three teams with only 10 back-to-backs.

Combining that fact with their generally reasonable schedule, it seems like Tampa Bay is in a prime position to at least claim another playoff spot next season. They might want to get that over with sometime before that challenging eight-game stretch to end 11-12, though.

Hurricanes could make playoffs if they survive a potentially disastrous March

By James O'BrienOct 1, 2011, 11:00 AM EDT

Note: Mileage figures via On the Forecheck’s “Super Schedule.”

Carolina Hurricanes schedule analysis

Total mileage: 38,114 (11th lowest in NHL, second lowest in Southeast)

Back-to-back games: 16

Toughest stretches

After opening the 2011-12 season at home against the Lightning (the team that ended their 10-11 season in the same venue), the Hurricanes play six of their next seven games on the road, closing out that tough run with back-to-back games – Oct. 21 against St. Louis; Oct. 22 against Winnipeg.

Things are smooth through November until they run into another tough string in December (although that one is more manageable, with five of six games away from Carolina).

February features a moderately challenging five in seven game stretch, but the last big hurdle comes in March. If they can come out the other side of this gauntlet intact, they might make the playoffs:

March 6: at Washington
March 7: at Buffalo
March 10: at Tampa Bay
March 11: at Florida
March 13: at NY Rangers
March 15: home vs. St. Louis
March 17: at Minnesota
March 18: at Winnipeg
March 21: home vs. Florida
March 23: at Columbus
March 24: at Detroit
March 27: at Toronto

That’s 10 out of 12 games on the road, including a five-game away run to start things off. That dirty dozen includes four sets of back-to-back games to boot. Even if some of those teams were unsuccessful in 2010-11, their fortunes could be very different next season. The mere grind of that run alone could be very harmful, although the flip side is that the Hurricanes could really come together for a playoff run by weathering that storm.

Easiest periods

Their rough beginning to the season is mostly matched by a five-in-six span of home games in late October to early November. November is a mostly solid month, with 10 home games and five road contests.

There are little pockets of opportunity in December or January, though nothing that should make-or-break their 2011-12 season.

Late February to early March is that special chance, though. They play six consecutive games at home from Fe. 20 to March 3, although all but one of those teams made the playoffs last season. Still, they really need to stock up points in that run because those dates are surrounded by road-heavy streaks.

Overall outlook

The Hurricanes complained almost incessantly about certain parts of their season in 10-11. To some extent, they had some reasons to do so, although those tough times were balanced by solid chances to make a difference. Ultimately, it came down to their last game and they blew it. (In case you’re wondering, the Hurricanes close their 11-12 season on April 7 against the Panthers in Florida.)

Carolina’s travel schedule is reasonable and while some of their back-to-backs are placed inconveniently, they shouldn’t have many schedule-related excuses at their disposal if they fall short next season.