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PHT Morning Skate: Crosby’s place among all-time greats; Oilers counting on new faces

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Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

Logan Couture wants to take the luck out of close calls. (London Free Press)

Kyle Connor hopes to sign with the Winnipeg Jets prior to training. (NHL.com)

• Injury to Juuso Valimaki changes Flames’ plans for T.J. Brodie. (Sportsnet)

• Oilers counting on new forwards. (The Hockey Writers)

• Fans don’t seem to care that there’s been a decline in fighting in the NHL. (Last Word on Hockey)

• Three teams that could return to the playoffs this season. (Yahoo Sports)

• An evolving narrative has the NHL at a crossroads. (Puck Prose)

• How well do the NHL’s new coaches fit their respective teams? (The Score)

• What is Sidney Crosby’s current place among NHL’s all-time greats? (Pensburgh)

• Will the Canucks follow in the Panthers’ footsteps and retire Roberto Luongo’s No. 1? (The Province)

• Predictions of Carolina’s demise are being greatly exaggerated. (Canes Country)

• The NHL is getting an assist from players, media partners as it extends European reach. (Front Office Sports)

John Moore had a great first impression…that soured pretty quickly. (Stanley Cup of Chowder)

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

Another 100-point season would put McDavid in exclusive club

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Each day in the month of August we’ll be examining a different NHL team — from looking back at last season to discussing a player under pressure to identifying X-factors to asking questions about the future. Today we look at the Edmonton Oilers.

Four years into his NHL career and Connor McDavid has already matched (and probably even exceeded) the hype that surrounded his arrival in the league.

He is the best, most dynamic, and most dominant offensive player in the league, a two-time scoring champion, a league MVP, and has seen his point production increase every year going from 48 (in only 45 games), to 100, to 108, and then to 116 this past season.

[More: 2018-19 In review | Under Pressure | Three Questions | X-Factor]

Assuming he stays healthy there is no reason to think he will not be able to top the century mark this season. If he does that would be four 100-point seasons in a row, an accomplishment only a select few players in league history have ever reached.

It is also completely unheard of for this era.

In the history of the league only 13 players have ever hit 100 points in at least four consecutive seasons. Here is the list:

Two things stand out here.

For one, they are all Hall of Famers and among the greatest offensive players to ever play in the league.

Second, it has not happened since the early 1990s, with the bulk of the players on this list doing it between the 1980 and 1993 seasons when scoring in the league was at an all-time high. During those 13 years 100-point seasons were fairly common across the league, as it was a mark that was reached 158 times by 61 different players.

Just for comparisons sake, there have only been 30 100-point seasons by 18 different players over the past 13 seasons.

McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin are the only players to have at least three during that stretch.

Crosby (five 100-point seasons during between 2006 and 2019) is the only one with more than McDavid.

Keep in mind, McDavid has only played in four of those seasons. If he does it again this season he would be just the seventh player to ever have four 100-point seasons within their first five years in the league.

He is already as dominant as an individual player can be in the NHL, and that is what makes it even more disappointing and frustrating that the Oilers have not been able to build something meaningful around him, and do not really seem to be close to doing so, either.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Oilers need to keep McDavid-Draisaitl duo together

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Each day in the month of August we’ll be examining a different NHL team — from looking back at last season to discussing a player under pressure to identifying X-factors to asking questions about the future. Today we look at the Edmonton Oilers.

One of the only bright spots for the 2018-19 Edmonton Oilers was the breakout performance of forward Leon Draisaitl.

After back-to-back 25-goal, 70-point seasons where he looked to be an outstanding young complementary player to Connor McDavid, Draisaitl’s production erupted to an MVP level with a 50-goal, 105-point season that saw him finish in the top-four in the NHL in goals and total points.

He helped form one of the NHL’s best offensive duos alongside McDavid and gave the Oilers a line that could match up against any other top line in the league.

The key for the Oilers in climbing out of their pit of irrelevance isn’t just going to be about finding a way to build around the McDavid and Draisaitl duo, but also finding a way to ensure that the latter is able to repeat (or at least come close to repeating) what he did this past season.

The best way to do that: Resist the temptation to give him his own line and keep him right where he is on McDavid’s wing.

[MORE: 2018-19 Summary | Under Pressure | Three Questions]

The argument for moving Draisaitl to his own line has always been that it could extend the Oilers’ depth and give them a situation where at least one of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (by far their three best players) are almost always on the ice at any given time. It sounds like a solid plan in theory because of how good each of them are (a deeper team is a better team), especially since there is a mindset that due to Draisaitl’s salary he should be able to run his own line.

The problem is it that it simply doesn’t work, mainly because the Oilers don’t have enough pieces on the roster to complement McDavid and Draisaitl working separately. By splitting them up under the team’s current construction you are wasting what each one can do by putting them with — for lack of a better word — inferior players.

That means instead of boosting the team it usually just ends up holding back the two stars, and that only makes a bad team even worse.

The reality of the situation for the Oilers is this: Whether he plays with McDavid or not, Draisaitl is probably going to see some kind of a regression in his production this season because he is not going to score on 22 percent of his shots again. Also keep in mind that Draisaitl is one of just four players over the past 10 years (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin being the others, all doing it just once during that stretch) to top 50 goals and 100 points in the same season, so that alone makes it hard to believe he can duplicate those exact numbers.

But they can still maximize what they get out of him by putting him in a situation where he has a chance to produce the most. That situation always has been, still is, and will most likely continue to be next to McDavid.

The McDavid-Draisaitl duo is the one positive thing the Oilers have going for them, and even though loading up all of their eggs in one basket might make their lineup thinner from a depth perspective, it is still making the team better because of how dominant these two are alongside each other. There is enough objective evidence over the past three years to show that both players see their production spike when they are on a line together and drop when they are on their own (yes, even McDavid’s production drops when he is away from Draisaitl — mostly because of what the alternative is on his wing). This is when both players are at their best as it gives each of them an elite offensive player to play off of.

At least this way the Oilers know they have 15-20 minutes per night where they are going to out play their opponents. Whether or not they can get enough out of the rest of the roster to at least tread water for the other 40-45 minutes remains to be seen, but the McDavid-Draisaitl duo might be at least good enough to steal a few games the team might otherwise lose.

It is not perfect, but it is the best chance the Oilers have.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Same old questions remain for Oilers

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Each day in the month of August we’ll be examining a different NHL team — from looking back at last season to discussing a player under pressure to identifying X-factors to asking questions about the future. Today we look at the Edmonton Oilers.

Pondering three important questions for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers.

1. Who will help Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?

Our Joey Alfieri already touched on this when he looked at the Oilers’ depth scorers being under pressure to produce more, but this really is the single biggest question facing the Oilers this season. Just as it was last year. And the year before. And the year before that.

Unless James Neal finds a time machine and goes back to his age 26 or 27 seasons, or the team figures out a way to salvage the development of Jesse Puljujarvi before it sends him away for some magic beans it’s hard to see where this improvement comes from.

How top-heavy has the Oilers’ lineup been over the past two years? Some numbers for you.

  • With McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice together during 5-on-5 play the Oilers have outscored teams by an 88-67 (plus-21) margin and controlled more than 52 percent of the shot attemepts.
  • With only ONE of them on the ice the Oilers have been outscored 136-115 (minus-21) and controlled only 49 percent of the shot attempts.
  • With NEITHER of them on the ice the Oilers have been outscored 151-106 (minus-45) and controlled just 48 percent of the shot attempts.

When their top two players are not on the ice the Oilers are playing at the level of an early 1990s expansion team.

It is appalling to have what might be the best offensive duo in the league and still be so far away from the playoffs.

Does acquiring James Neal in a swap of bad salaries (in what should be an upgrade) and signing some cheap, reclamation project free agents do enough to help move the needle closer to the playoffs?

[MORE: 2018-19 Summary | Under Pressure | X-Factor]

2. How will they stop teams?

Here is a set of numbers for you to ponder: 25, 25, 8, 28, 30, 30, 19, 23, 28, 30, 22, 26, 16

What are those numbers representing? They are where the Oilers have ranked in goals against (starting with this past season on the left and moving backwards) dating back to the start of the 2006-07 season. Average finish: 24th. The one outlier (the eighth place year) was when Cam Talbot pretty much stood on his head in net and was eventually run into the ground due to a ridiculous workload.

The Oilers are bringing back mostly the same cast of characters on defense that haven’t been good enough, and barring an unexpected miracle they don’t really have a goalie that should be a serious threat to steal games. Mikko Koskinen‘s contract looks to be a mess, while Mike Smith is coming off the worst season of his career and is entering his age 37 season.

This all seems like a tough recipe to make work.

Dave Tippett has a reputation for being a defensive coach (a reputation he doesn’t really seem to like) and is very respected around the league, but how much of an impact can a coach make with a thin defense and two massive question marks in goal? Even if McDavid and Draisaitl repeat their magic and they find some respectable second-line scoring can they actually stop enough teams for any of it to matter?

3. What changes will Ken Holland make?

Holland has two cornerstone players that are already among the best in the league and haven’t even hit their peak years in the NHL yet. It is a great starting point. That is the good news. The bad news is that even though he has McDavid and Draisaitl to start building around he still has what might be the most daunting rebuilding job of any general manager in the NHL. Not only because he has a ton of holes to plug, but because he has to deal with the pressure that is not wasting anymore of McDavid’s best years in the league.

In the past, the Oilers have tried to shake things up by dealing players that were once considered part of the core (Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz). They not only failed to capitalize on those trades, but they have quickly run out of such players to deal.

Will Ryan Nugent-Hopkins be next? Oscar Klefbom? It seems to only be a matter of time until Puljujarvi gets moved.

No matter who it is, he is going to have to make significant changes to get this team out of its current situation.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

PHT Power Rankings: Bounce-back candidates for 2019-20 NHL season

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After looking at the top breakout and regression candidates in our previous offseason PHT Power Rankings, we shift our focus this week to more established players that should be better (and maybe significantly better) than they were a year ago.

Who are among our top-10 bounce-back candidates for the 2019-20 NHL season?

To the rankings!

1. Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets. For the majority of NHL players scoring 30 goals in a season would be a huge accomplishment. For Patrik Laine in 2018-19 it was probably a hugee disappointment. He was supposed to challenge Alex Ovechkin for the goal-scoring crown but never really came close to doing so. His season was made by one 12-game hot streak in November where he scored 18 goals, then managed just 12 goals in the other 70 games thanks mostly to an uncharacteristically low 6 percent shooting percentage in those games. That is a fluke and will not last. He is too good, too talented, and has too good of shot for it continue.

2. William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs. He missed the first quarter of the season due to an extended contract negotiation and never really had a chance to get rolling once he returned. Despite the poor production, there were a lot of positive signs that indicate he can (and will) bounce back. HIs possession numbers were outstanding and he still generated a fair number of shots, he was just crushed by a 5.6 shooting percentage. A fresh start and a full season will do him well.

3. Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings. There is really no way to sugarcoat Doughty’s 2018-19 season — it was bad. Maybe it was the result of playing on a terrible Kings team that had nothing going for it. Maybe it was the fact he is inching closer to his 30th birthday and reaching a point where he will inevitably start to slow down. Maybe it was just a down year. It was probably a combination of all three. Whatever the case, he had a miserable year as the Kings were absolutely steamrolled when he was on the ice. He is too good and has too much of a track record for that to happen two years in a row.

4. James Neal, Edmonton Oilers. His days as a 35-or 40-goal scorer are probably done but did his career really fall of a cliff that quickly? Scoring 20-25 goals shouldn’t be an unrealistic expectation, and if he manages to do that it will be a nice bounce back season and really help a painfully thin Oilers roster.

[Related: Can James Neal bounce-back after tough year in Calgary?]

5. Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins. The raw numbers point to a strong season offensively, but there weree a lot of flaws to his game in a lot of areas (5-on-5 and defensively, to be specific). He wasn’t *bad* but he can definitely be a lot better and will no doubt be motivated to show he is still one of the elite players in the league. It is a big year for him in Pittsburgh.

6. Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings. Quick has always been a polarizing player because he’s never been as good as his loudest supporters think he is or as bad as his loudest critics think he is. He’s a perfectly fine starting goalie that’s had two amazing playoff runs. That’s it. He’s not an all-time great and he’s not bad. He’s just … good. For some reason that is difficult for people to accept. No matter what side of the Quick argument you fall on you should probably be willing to acknowledge he is not going to repeat the .888 save percentage he finished last season with. He is WAY better than that.

7. Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders. There were a lot of shocking things about the Islanders’ turnaround a year ago. One of the more overlooked storylines is that they were able to make the playoffs despite their best and most important returning player — Barzal — regressing almost entirely across the board. After one of the finest rookie seasons we have seen in years, expectations were through the roof for Barzal in year two. He was good, but probably fell short of what was expected of him.

8. Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars. Benn’s slower than expected start drew the ire of team CEO Jim Lites even though he was still one of the four or five players on the team that actually produced. Still, it wasn’t the typical Jamie Benn season in Dallas. His 0.68 point per game average was the second lowest of his career (only his rookie season was worse) and a sharp decline from what we are used to seeing from him. The fact that is considered a “down” year is a testament to how good he has been. He is not finished as an elite scorer just yet.

9. Rickard Rakell, Anaheim Ducks. During the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons Rakell was one of the best and most overlooked goal-scorers in the league, scoring at a 37-goal pace per 82 games. He was one of the go-to players for the Ducks offensively and looked to be ready for another huge year this past season. But his down year was one of the many things to go wrong in Anaheim as his offensive production plummeted. A lot of the decline was shooting percentage driven and he should be able to recover from that this season.

10. Clayton Keller, Arizona Coyotes. Like Barzal in New York, Keller went through a bit of a sophomore slump for the Coyotes. The good news is he didn’t regress all that much, is still only 21 years old, and has already demonstrated an ability to be a top-line player in the league. If he gets back to the level he was at during his rookie season (or even takes a step forward) it will go a long way toward ending the Coyotes’ playoff drought.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.