Colton Sissons

NHL Fantasy Hockey: Getzlaf, Tanev lead this week’s top adds

1 Comment

Welcome to our weekly Adds/Drops column, where I focus on highlighting players you should consider grabbing or be concerned about in fantasy leagues. As always, the goal here isn’t to recommend 10 players you must add and five players that need to be dropped. Context is everything and the context of each league is different. What this is instead is a guideline so that if you’re looking to make a change, you have potential players to target and if you see players I’ve suggested to drop, you can evaluate your potential alternates.

Players Worth Adding

Ryan Getzlaf, Ducks – C: The Ducks captain is one of the best known players out there, but he’s owned in a relatively modest 35% of Yahoo leagues. That’s understandable after he was limited to 14 goals and 48 points in 67 games last season, but he’s worth taking a look at now, at least in the short-term. He’s found the back of the net in back-to-back games and has four goals and five points in his last seven contests. Getzlaf has traditionally been more of a playmaker than a scorer, but he’s focused more on shooting the puck himself this season. Through 13 games, he’s averaging 2.38 shots per game, which is his highest rate since 2014-15 when he finished with 25 goals. His long-term value is still questionable, especially given his center-only eligibility, but at the least he’s worth taking a chance on while he’s hot.

Sean Walker, Kings D: Walker might end up being one of the bright spots in a difficult campaign for the Kings. He already has three goals and six points in 12 games. He finished 2018-19 with 10 points in 39 contests, but he was only averaging 15:26 minutes. This time around, he’s up to 18:36 minutes and it wouldn’t be surprising to see his role trend upwards as the season continues. One long-term thing to keep in mind is that Ben Hutton can become a UFA this summer while Alec Martinez is 32-years-old with a contract that runs through 2020-21. Both Hutton and Martinez are averaging over 20 minutes and it’s entirely possible that one or both of them will be dealt before the trade deadline, which might give Walker a late season boost.

Lars Eller, Capitals – C: Eller isn’t a great long-term pickup, but he’s hot right now if you’re looking for a short-term boost. He has two goals and five points in his last four games, which has pushed him up to four goals and 10 points in 13 contests. That’s quite the start for the 30-year-old who has never recorded more than 38 points in a single season. It’s certainly nice to benefit from while it lasts, just don’t expect him to maintain this pace.

Radko Gudas, Capitals – D: This is a bit of a different one. He has just four assists in 13 games and he can’t be expected to be a significant offensive contributor this season. However, he can potentially help you in some other ways. Gudas is tied for seventh among defensemen with 32 hits and is tied for sixth overall with a plus-nine plus/minus rating. He’s only owned in 28% of Yahoo leagues, so if you need help those categories, then he might be the solution. If you’re in a custom league that uses blocked shots, then Gudas has some utility there too. So far he’s gotten in front of 24 shots.

Joel Armia, Canadiens – RW: Armia is red hot right now with three goals and four points in his last three games, along with six goals and eight points in his most recent seven contests. He’s never recorded more than 29 points in a single season, but the 26-year-old has seen his role grow rapidly in recent years. He’s averaging a career-high 17:03 minutes in 2019-20 and it’s been climbing with him logging an average of 18:33 minutes over his last four contests. He’s regularly played alongside Jonathan Drouin and Max Domi is sometimes the third member of that line. We could be seeing the start of a breakout season for Armia.

[For more fantasy sports analysis, check out Rotoworld]

Alex Goligoski, Coyotes – D: Goligoski has traditionally been good for around 35-40 points, but he dipped to 27 points in 76 contests last season. Arizona had a bottom barrel offensive team in 2018-19 though, so that played a role. This time around, the Coyotes’ offense is pretty solid and Goligoski has been able to rebound with a goal and seven points through 11 contests. It helps that the Coyotes are a much better team overall too, which translates to Goligoski not being the plus/minus burden he used to be. Back in 2017-18 he had a career-low minus-31 rating and even last season he finished at minus-seven. By contrast he’s plus-five this season. His improved worth hasn’t been noticed by all fantasy owners though, as evident by the fact that he’s only owned in 17% of Yahoo leagues.

Brandon Tanev, Penguins – LW/RW: I’m a little hesitant about this one, but Pittsburgh seems to be agreeing with Tanev. He set career-highs with 14 goals and 29 points in 80 games with Winnipeg last season and it on his way to top that in 2019-20. So far he has three goals and six points in 12 contests. Like I said, I’m hesitant about Tanev. I’m just not fully convinced he’s going to be a particularly valuable secondary scorer in the long run this season and his role with the Penguins hasn’t changed much from what it was with Washington. However, he is a great source of hits (49 already), so if you need help in that category to begin with, it’d make some sense to take a chance on him in the hopes that he keeps up this offensive pace.

Ilya Mikheyev, Maple Leafs – LW: Mikheyev has just adjusted remarkably well from the KHL to NHL. He already has four goals and 10 points in 13 games this season. He’s averaging 15:55 minutes per game and his role has been ticking upwards with him getting an average of 16:48 minutes over his last five contests. He’s still only owned in 23% of Yahoo leagues despite his hot start, so for a lot of owners, the opportunity to scoop him up remains.

Linus Ullmark, Sabres – G: The Sabres have gotten off to a superb 9-2-2 start and part of the reason for that has been some solid goaltending. Carter Hutton has been the leader in that regard with a 6-1-1 record, 2.21 GAA, and .926 save percentage in eight starts, but he’s also owned in 81% of Yahoo leagues, so odds are if you don’t have him yet, you can’t get him now. Ullmark isn’t a bad consolation prize though. For a backup, he’s played a fair amount, and he’s done well with a 3-1-1 record, 2.56 GAA, and .932 save percentage. The Sabres also have back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday followed by sets on Nov. 8-9, Nov. 16-17, Nov. 24-25, and Nov. 29-30. So even if they weren’t already using their backup regularly, they would need to in order to accommodate their November schedule.

Colton Sissons, Predators – C/LW: Sissons has gotten off to a terrific start with four goals and eight points in 11 games this season. He’s averaged a relatively modest 15:19 minutes per game, but it is trending upwards. He’s averaged 16:13 minutes over his last three games and has logged over 17 minutes in three of those contests. He’s still only owned in 7% of Yahoo leagues and at this point, he seems worthy of the gamble.

Players You May Want To Drop

Kaapo Kakko, Rangers – RW: Taken with the second overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, there was understandably a lot of optimism surrounding Kakko going into the season. He had an amazing season in the Finnish league and we’ve seen previous first and second overall picks enter the league with a bang. That hasn’t been the case for Kakko though, who has just a goal and an assist through nine games. He’s been quick to put the blame on himself too, saying recently that he’s been “playing bad hockey,” per the New York Post. If you’re in a keeper league, then you definitely want to hold onto him because in the long run Kakko will be an excellent player, but if you’re in a single season league then you may want to drop him while he continues to adjust to North American hockey in general and the NHL in particular.

Jonathan Toews, Blackhawks – C: The Blackhawks captain had 35 goals and 81 points in 82 games last season, but that’s something of an anomaly given his history. Prior to that, he had three straight campaigns in the 52-58 point range. It seems he’s dipping back into that kind of offensive play this season. He’s scored just a goal and two points in 10 games so far and has gone five straight games without a point. If he had eligibility beyond center then there’d be more reason to be patient with him, but as it is, there are a lot of alternatives out there up the middle.

Devan Dubnyk, Wild – G: Dubnyk is ready to return from an upper-body injury, but it remains to be seen if he can turn his season around. He’s off to a terrible start with a 3.92 GAA and .880 save percentage in seven contests. With the exception of Oct. 22nd, when he left the game early in the second period due to the injury, he has surrendered at least three goals in each of his starts. Meanwhile, the Wild have found some success with Alex Stalock this season and you have to wonder if that will lead to the Wild leaning more on him going forward. Part of the selling point for Dubnyk was that he was likely to start in 60-plus games, but if Stalock keeps this up, then that won’t happen.

Joe Pavelski, Stars – C/RW: Let’s close out with a pair of big name Stars players that you maybe should hang onto for now, but at least need to be under the microscope at this point. Pavelski had 38 goals last season and obviously has a long history of success, but his stint so far in Dallas has to give everyone pause. He has just two goals and three points in 13 contests. What’s even more concerning is that he’s only even managed 18 shots on goal this season. To put that in perspective, he averaged 2.51 shots per game in 2018-19 and now he’s down to just 1.38. If something doesn’t change, this will be by far his lowest shots per game rate of his career. I have to wonder if the 35-year-old is simply in for a bad season, but if you’re determined to stay patient with him, then there are some silver linings. Dallas as a whole has struggled, so maybe he’ll start to turn things around once the rest of the team does. Additionally, his IPP is extremely low, which might be an indication of some pretty bad puck luck on his part. So it’s not quite all doom-and-gloom even if it’s certainly looked that way so far. 

Alexander Radulov, Stars – RW: I mentioned the Stars’ early season struggles and Radulov has been another factor in that. After his back-to-back 72-point campaigns, he has just a goal and four points in 13 games this season. Like Pavelski, he might rebound along with the rest of the Stars, but one thing I’m particularly worried about with Radulov is his declining role. He averaged 20:08 minutes in 2017-18 and 19:47 minutes in 2018-19. So far this season he’s dipped to an average of 17:25 minutes, which is still good, but not nearly as impressive. As his struggles have mounted, he’s also seen his role decline further. He’s logged less than 17 minutes in each of his last four games and on Oct. 24th he got just 12:23 minutes. As is the case with Pavelski, all hope isn’t lost, but there are some concerning signs here beyond just a slow start.

If you’re looking for fantasy hockey information, Rotoworld is a great resource. You can check the player news for the latest information on any player and insight into their fantasy outlook.

Every week Michael Finewax looks ahead at the schedule and offers team-by-team notes in The Week Ahead. I have a weekly Fantasy Nuggets column where I basically talk about whatever’s captured my attention that week. Gus Katsaros does an Analytics columns if you want to get into detailed statistical analysis. If you’re interested in rookies and prospects, there’s a weekly column on that written by McKeen’s Hockey.

For everything fantasy hockey, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, and follow @Rotoworld_ HK and @RyanDadoun on Twitter.

Signing depth players long-term is usually losing move for NHL teams

Getty
2 Comments

The Nashville Predators’ decision to sign Colton Sissons to a seven-year contract earlier this week certainly raised a lot of eyebrows around the NHL.

As PHT’s James O’Brien argued immediately after the signing, the salary cap hit is pretty reasonable and it might even be a decent value right now.

But it’s the salary cap that puts every contract in the league under a microscope. Teams only have so much money to spend, and every dollar they spend on one player is a dollar they do not have to spend on another player. Every dollar counts, especially if you a contending team that is probably going to be spending close to the cap. Mistakes and misevaluations matter, and if you get caught with too many of them at once it can have a negative impact. Because of that, teams need to make sure they are using their limited amount of money in the most efficient way possible, properly prioritizing what matters and what doesn’t, and the players that are worth committing to.

Traditionally, teams have mostly avoided long-term commitments to players that are not top-line players. This is especially true among teams that win and go deep in the playoffs. I say “mostly avoided” because there have been several instances outside of Nashville where teams have given lengthy term to depth players. The New York Islanders signed forwards Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck to five-year deals, and third-pairing defender Scott Mayfield to a seven-year deal. The Detroit Red Wings have Justin Adbelkader and Darren Helm on five-plus year contracts. The Kings gave Kyle Clifford a five-year deal several years back. The Pittsburgh Penguins gave Brandon Tanev a six-year contract this summer to play in their bottom-six after giving Jack Johnson a five-year contract one year ago.

Those are just a few examples of players that are currently under contract.

The question, though, is why teams would ever want to do this.

The answer is simple: By giving the player more term and more individual long-term security, it brings the salary cap hit down a little and helps the team in the short-term. But is that extra savings worth the long-term commitment to a player that may not retain their value over the duration of the contract?

[ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker]

One thing that has stood out about recent Stanley Cup winners and contenders is that pretty much none of them have had long-term commitments (five years or more) to players that played regularly outside of their top-six forwards or top-four defenders. It is practically unheard of. Identifying consistent lines and who is a “depth” player is a mostly inexact science. Coaches change line combinations constantly over the course of a season and a player’s role within a team can be a very fluid situation. For this, I simply tried to use even-strength usage as a way to identify a player’s spot in the lineup.

The table below shows the past six Stanley Cup winners and the players they had signed to contracts of five years or more in the years they won the Stanley Cup. Players highlighted in yellow were signed for six years (or more) at the time of the championship. Take a look at the names and see if you can identify a trend … they are almost all top-line players.

The only players on that table that were not either a starting goalie, a top-six forward, or a top-four defender are Olli Maatta with Pittsburgh in 2016-17 (he was top-four in 2015-16) and Mike Richards with Los Angeles in 2013-14 (he signed that contract in Philadelphia when he was a first-line center, and was a second-line center upon his arrival in Los Angeles in 2011-12).

I also looked at every team that made at least the Conference Finals in those seasons and found only five instances where a depth player was signed for more than five years. And even they have some asterisks next to them because they were at least signed with the intention of being more significant parts of their team.

  • Alex Killorn, signed for seven years, was outside of Tampa Bay’s top-six during their 2017-18 Eastern Conference Final run, but was in its top-six during its runs in 2014-15 and 2015-16. When he was signed, the Lightning probably figured he was going to be more of a top-line player. He has since been surpassed by a wave of talent that came after him.
  • Ryan Callahan also played third/fourth-line minutes for the Lightning during the 2017-18 playoffs but, like Killorn, played bigger roles in 2014-15 and 2016-17.
  • The Sharks had defensemen Brenden Dillon signed for five years to play third-pairing minutes 2018-19 and 2015-16 during their postseason runs
  • John Moore and David Backes (both signed for five years) were depth players on the 2018-19 Bruins.

Pretty much all of the Conference Finalists, and especially the Stanley Cup Finalists, over the past six full seasons had long-term investments in their stars and filled out their depth with younger, entry-level players and short-term veterans.

They were not giving out term to non-core players.

The problem with giving out term to depth players is that they can tend to be replaceable talents that may not maintain their current value throughout the duration of that term. You run the risk of that player regressing and not having the roster flexibility to bring in a cheaper and/or better player. If a star player ages and declines, they are still probably going to be giving you a solid return on that investment. The depth player may not, if they are even able to justify a roster spot.

Let’s take Sissons as an example. Right now he is a fine NHL player. Solid defensively, can chip in some offense, and plays a tough and often times thankless role within the Predators lineup. At around $3 million per year he is a fine investment … for now. Between the 2000-01 and 2012-13 seasons there were 14 players that were at a similar point in their development: Players that had played at least 140 games during the ages 24 and 25 seasons and averaged between 0.30 and 0.40 points per game, exactly where Sissons is right now.

Only five of those 14 players played an additional seven seasons in the NHL.

In professional sports dollars, an extra million or two over a couple of years is nothing more than a drop in the bucket to teams. But when the teams are limited by their leagues in what they can spend on players, little mistakes can quickly add up to big mistakes. The Penguins, for example, are now on the hook for $7 million over the next four years for the Johnson-Tanev duo, which is an egregious use of salary space for a contender pressed against the cap that is trying to get another Stanley Cup out of its Hall of Fame core over the next few years.

It is not just good teams, either. The Vancouver Canucks have spent the past two offseasons throwing big-money at the bottom of their roster and will enter this season with $12 million in salary cap space going to Antoine Roussel, Jay Beagle, and Tyler Myers for multiple years. The result of that is a bad team that only has $5 million in salary cap space and still needs to sign restricted free agent Brock Boeser. They are now in a position where they have to play hardball with their second-best player to get him signed, or have to make a desperation trade to clear salary cap space. It’s a headache that would have been easily avoidable had they not overspent on the bottom of their lineup.

As much as teams want cost certainty with their players and trying to secure their long-term salary cap outlook, it just doesn’t seem to make much sense to commit so many years to a player that isn’t going to be an impact player or a part of your core. The value probably will not remain, and it is going to limit what you are able to do in the future. There is not a third-or fourth-line player in the league right now that is so good at what they do that it is worth committing to it for five, six, or seven years. Age will eventually catch up to those players, and when they decline it is going to hit them even harder than the decline of a star.

Commit to your stars long-term because they can not easily be replaced.

The players around them usually can be.

More NHL Free Agency:
Sissons, Predators agree to seven-year contract
Predators being bold with term, but is it smart?
NHL Free Agency: Most long-term contracts will end in trade or buyout

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Predators are being bold with term; are they being smart?

Getty Images
5 Comments

If nothing else, the Nashville Predators aren’t afraid to be bold.

In a vacuum, the Colton Sissons signing isn’t something that will make or break the Predators’ future. That seven-year, $20 million contract has inspired some fascinating debates, but the most interesting questions arise around GM David Poile’s larger team building, and his courageous decisions.

As we’ve seen, Poile doesn’t just lock up obvious core players to term, he frequently gives supporting cast players unusual security, too.

This signing seems like a good excuse to dive into the Predators’ biggest offseason decisions, and also ponder maybe the biggest one of all: what to do with captain Roman Josi, whose bargain contract will only last for one more season.

The interlocking P.K. Subban, Matt Duchene, Roman Josi situation

By any reasonable estimate, the Predators got hosed in getting such a small return for Subban in that deal with the Devils.

Of course, the Predators’ goal wasn’t necessarily to get a great return for Subban, but instead to get rid of Subban’s $9M to (most directly) sign Matt Duchene, and maybe eventually provide more leeway to extend Josi.

There was some argument to trading away Subban, as at 30, there’s a risk that his $9M AAV could become scary.

The thing is, the Predators only seemed to expose themselves to greater risks. It remains to be seen if Matt Duchene will be worth $8M, even right away, and he’s already 28. Roman Josi turned 29 in June, so if Josi’s cap hit is comparable to Subban’s — and it could be a lot higher if Josi plays the market right — then the Predators would take even bigger risks on Josi. After all, Josi’s next contract will begin in 2020-21, while Subban’s is set to expire after 2021-22.

So, in moving on from Subban to Duchene and/or Josi, the Predators are continuing to make big gambles that they’re right. Even if Subban really was on the decline, at least his deal isn’t going on for that much longer. Nashville’s instead chosen one or maybe two even riskier contracts at comparable prices, really rolling the dice that they’re not painting themselves into a corner.

There’s also the scenario where Josi leaves Nashville, and things could get pretty dizzying from there.

Even if you look at it as a Matt Duchene for P.K. Subban trade alone, that’s not necessarily a guaranteed “win” for Nashville. It’s all pretty bold, though.

[This post goes into even greater detail about trading Subban, and the aftermath.]

Lots of term

Nashville doesn’t have much term locked in its goalies Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros, which is wise, as goalies are very tough to predict. Those risks are instead spread out to a considerable number of skaters, and Poile’s crossing his fingers that he’s going to find the sweet spot with veterans, rather than going all that heavy on youth.

The long-term plan has frequently been fruitful for the Predators, as Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25M for five more seasons) and Filip Forsberg ($6M for three more seasons) rank as some of the best bargains in the NHL. Josi’s $4M is right up there, though that fun ride ends after 2019-20.

Your mileage varies when you praise the overall work, though, because some savings are offset by clunkers. It stings to spend $10.1M in combined cap space on Kyle Turris and Nick Bonino, especially since $16M for Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen ranks somewhere between “the price of doing business” and “bad.”

[ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker]

So that’s the thing with locking down supporting cast members. It’s nice to have a defensive forward who seemingly moves the needle like Colton Sissons seems to do …

… Yet is he a bit of an extravagance at $2.857M per year? Again, that’s a matter of debate.

The uncomfortable truth is that, if the Predators are wrong about enough of these deals, then it’s that much tougher to wiggle your way out of mistakes. Yes, maybe the Predators can move Sissons if he slides, but you risk falling behind the pack if you lose value propositions too often.

Will that be the case with the Predators? We’ll have to wait and see, and the most fascinating test cases come down the line. If it doesn’t work out next year, in particular, then things could pretty uncomfortable, pretty quickly.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Sissons, Predators agree to seven-year, $20 million deal

Getty Images
2 Comments

We see long-term deals with high annual average values.

We see short-term deals with lower annual average values.

But rarely do we see long-term deals with low annual average values. Like less than $3 million low.

Yet, despite the rarity of such a pact, David Poile and the Nashville Predators have become some sort of trendsetters in getting plays to sign lengthy deals worth a pittance annually.

Colton Sissons becomes the second in the past three years to sign on with the Predators long-term at a small AVV. Sissons new deal, avoiding arbitration, is a seven-year contract worth $20 million — an AAV of $2.85 million.

“Colton will be an important part of our team for the next seven seasons, and we are happy he has made a long-term commitment to our organization and the city the Nashville,” Poile said. “He’s a heart and soul player who is versatile and can fill many important roles on our team, including on the penalty kill and power play. His offensive production has increased each season, and he remains an integral part of our defensive structure down the middle of the ice. Colton is also an up-and-coming leader in our organization, which is something we value strongly.”

Poile seems to have no issue signing depth guys to lengthy deals. In 2016, he signed Calle Jarnkork to a six-year deal worth $12 million. In fact, he’s the only general manager to pull of such moves.

[ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker]

Both players have chosen security over maximizing earning potential.

Sissons, 25, had a career-year last season, scoring 15 goals and 30 points in 75 games.

His AAV is in the ballpark of what was projected. Evolving Wild’s model had him making $2.65 million. What wasn’t foreseen is that term.

EW’s model projected a three-year contract for Sissons with a 30.2 percent probability of coming to fruition. But what percentage of chance did EW give a seven-year contract? 0.4 percent.

Anything is possible, kids.


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

Marchand imitates Sissons’ reaction after high-sticking penalty (Video)

Twitter
17 Comments

Who knew Brad Marchand could act?

After Saturday night’s performance in the first period against the Nashville Predators, the Boston Bruins star might be getting a call from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Known for slick goals, questionable hits and even a lick or two every now and then, Marchand pulled another rabbit out of the hat after taking a high-sticking call against Predators forward Colton Sissons.

Marchand was hardly pleased after what appeared to be a phantom call and as he was getting ushered off the ice, decided to do his best Sissons impression.

Three times.

It was pretty funny.

Marchand’s best Hollywood moves netted him a 10-minute misconduct and a two-minute unsportsmanlike misconduct penalty on top of the two-minute call for getting his stick up a little too high.

And the Oscar goes too…

His thank-you speech should be interesting.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck