Anthony Duclair

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What is the Senators’ long-term outlook?

With the 2019-20 NHL season on hold we are going to review where each NHL team stands at this moment until the season resumes. Here we take a look at the long-term outlook for the Ottawa Senators.

Pending Free Agents

The Core

Outside of Brady Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot, the Senators will be searching for a new core in the coming years. Due to the failures of the San Jose Sharks this past season, the Senators have two premium picks in the upcoming draft, including the second-and third-best odds to land the top selection per the current standings. In addition, they have six picks in the second and third round if they want to move up in the draft or acquire additional talent.

Similar to other rebuilding franchises, the tough decisions are looming. Their farm system has a number of potential pieces, but general manager Pierre Dorion needs to find a few difference makers.

Ottawa wisely signed Chabot to a long-term extension prior to the season and will most likely try to lock up Tkachuk this upcoming summer.

Colin White, a 23-year-old, has five years remaining on his contract upon the conclusion of this season and will likely play a central role in the years to come. For the next few seasons, the primary focus will be on player development not on-ice results.

Outside of Bobby Ryan’s contract which lasts until the end of the 2021-22 season, the Senators do not have a salary cap issue. Dorion could wisely use his cap space to acquire additional draft capital, or overpaid NHL players on the cheap as long as he does not exceed the internal budget.

While the Senators will not be making the Stanley Cup playoffs in the immediate future, they do have endless potential with a treasure trove of draft picks and valuable cap space. The biggest question ownership will face is if Dorion is the right general manager to lead them out of the abyss.

Long-Term Needs

The Senators have a need at every position. Chabot has proven himself to be an elite defenseman and Nikita Zaitsev is an NHL-caliber blueliner, but the team will need to develop or acquire a lot more talent.

Anthony Duclair is the type of player the Senators should be currently looking to fill their roster with for the short-term future. Ottawa could give players ample ice-time and special teams opportunities that other teams do not have patience for. Think of players such as former first-round pick Joshua Ho-Sang that are looking for a chance to prove themselves after a rough start to their career.

Long-Term Strengths

It was mentioned above, but the greatest strength of the Senators organization is the arsenal of draft picks and salary-cap flexibility. They have three first-round picks in the 2020 NHL Draft and 10 picks in the second and third round over the next two seasons. The decisions made this offseason and next will likely define the success of the franchise in the next decade.

MORE ON THE SENATORS:


Scott Charles is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @ScottMCharles.

Biggest surprises, disappointments for 2019-20 Senators

With the 2019-20 NHL season on hold we are going to review where each NHL team stands at this moment until the season resumes. Here we take a look at the surprises and disappointments for the Ottawa Senators.

Sharks’ staggering disappointments become big, positive surprises for Senators

The fallout of the Erik Karlsson trade remains hard to believe.

Sure, many of us expected the Sharks to eventually suffer with an aging group starring Karlsson and Brent Burns. But for that to happen in such a dramatic way in 2019-20? Few of us saw that coming.

So, remarkably, the Senators have almost as good of a chance to find the next face of their franchise with the Sharks’ 2020 first-round pick as Ottawa does with its own selection. Pretty mind-blowing stuff.

Senators resist the urge to buy high — so far

There were real fears that the Senators wouldn’t be able to resist the siren call with Jean-Gabriel Pageau‘s explosive contract year.

We see it plenty of times in the NHL. Whether it’s a contender or a team just trying to save face, a GM gets convinced to ignore red flags and sign a cap-clogging contract extension. Luckily, the Senators shook off such self-destructive instincts.

Now, one can wonder how much the Pageau trade has to do with, erm, “budgetary constraints.” But the result is what matters. Instead of possibly paying a good player too much money — one who, at 27, might be in decline by the time the Senators really can compete — Ottawa landed a bushel of quality picks from the Islanders.

Disappointments around the margins by Senators management

Trading away Pageau was a pretty progressive move, but beyond that, I wonder if GM Pierre Dorion left opportunities on the table.

Look, Anthony Duclair ended up being a great story this season, making an All-Star appearance. As someone who believed that Duclair could be a helpful player for some NHL team, it was nice to see that play out.

Frankly, I believe the Senators would have been wiser to try to sell high with a Duclair trade much like they did with Pageau. Sure, savvy teams likely saw through Duclair’s strong offensive numbers and noted that his defensive shortcomings push him closer to neutral …

Senators disappointments surprises GAR
Visualization by Charting Hockey; data via Evolving Hockey

… but someone probably would have coughed up a decent set of assets for a speedy, 24-year-old winger with just a $1.65M cap hit. Right?

Such moves aren’t the end of the world, especially if the Senators don’t go too wild with Duclair’s next contract. Making bigger calls with Karlsson and Pageau move the needle much more.

I do wonder if the Senators missed out on the margins, though, and have for a while.

Selling Tyler Ennis, Vladislav Namestnikov, and to a lesser extent Dylan DeMelo is pretty smart. Most of those assets merely making up for acquiring Namestnikov and Mike Reilly? A little bit curious for a team that’s in an obvious rebuild.

Ottawa’s season wasn’t pretty, but wasn’t the disaster many expected

Yes, the Senators ended up almost where we expected: near the bottom. Maybe credit first-year head coach D.J. Smith for keeping them hungry.

The “could have been worse” theme continues because, unlike some other teams that avoided total humiliation, the Senators didn’t ride on sheer luck. Their goalies were a bit below average, as was their shooting luck. Ottawa’s special teams were putrid, likely the most obvious sign of a glaring lack of talent.

Senators surprises disappointments xG
Visualization by Charting Hockey; data via Evolving Hockey

Falling a bit below average by various metrics? Not so bad.

No doubt about it, you’re grading on a curve when it comes to the Senators. When you adjust your expectations, you’d say Ottawa passed many of its tests. The question is, can the Senators graduate from the more remedial parts of this rebuild, or are these small surprises setting the stage for devastating disappointments?

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

NHL Fantasy Hockey: Cirelli, DeBrusk lead this week’s top adds

Welcome to our weekly Adds/Drops column, where I focus on highlighting players you should consider grabbing or be concerned about in fantasy leagues. As always, the goal here isn’t to recommend 10 players you must add and five players that need to be dropped. Context is everything and the context of each league is different. What this is instead is a guideline so that if you’re looking to make a change, you have potential players to target and if you see players I’ve suggested to drop, you can evaluate your potential alternates.

Players Worth Adding

Zach Sanford, Blues – C/LW: Sanford recorded just 20 points in 60 games last season, but he averaged a modest 12:35 minutes. Through Jan. 9th, he had three goals and 10 points in 32 contests in 2019-20, but again his ice time was low at an average of 12:26. Over his last eight games though, his playing time has increased to 14:05 minutes per game and he’s scored three goals and nine points over that span. It certainly helps that he’s been regularly skating on a line with Ryan O'Reilly and David Perron. Sanford is still playing above his head right now and it’s questionable if he’ll be worth owning in standard leagues after this hot streak is over, but there is the potential for him to surprise people the rest of the way if he does keep getting decent minutes.

Kailer Yamamoto, Oilers – RW/LW: This isn’t the first time Yamamoto has been called up, but this is looking like the time he sticks with the Oilers. He has been so good with five goals and 10 points in 11 contests with Edmonton this season. Yamamoto has been highly regarded for a while, it’s just taken a bit of time for him to develop and now that he has, he could be a great offensive force going forward. He’s only owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues, so in most cases it’s not too late to take a chance on him.

Jake DeBrusk, Bruins – LW/RW: Debrusk is one of those players who isn’t quite worth owning all the time in standard leagues, but he’s not far off. He’s been solid offensively with 17 goals and 32 points in 48 games and his eligibility on both wings gives fantasy owners a nice amount of flexibility when it comes to using him. He’s just maybe a hair less productive than the low end of what you’d typically want on your team. As an injury stopgap measure though, he’s pretty much the ideal. If you’re hunting your free agent market for hot players, he also works there after scoring an impressive six goals and 12 points over his last 10 games.

Oliver Bjorkstrand, Blue Jackets – LW/RW: Bjorkstrand was red hot with five goals and seven points in his last four games when he suffered a rib/cartilage contusion and an oblique strain that cost him four-to-six weeks. He returned on Jan. 19th and picked up right where he left off with another five goals and six points in his last four contests. At this point he has 17 goals and 29 points despite being limited to 40 games. He managed to score 23 goals in 2018-19 even though he was averaging just 12:20 minutes, so now that he’s getting 17:28 minutes per game, it’s not shocking to see him be such a significant goal scorer. He’s owned in 41% of Yahoo leagues and there should be use for him on teams in many of the leagues where he’s still available.

Zach Hyman, Maple Leafs – C/LW: Hyman couldn’t make his season debut until Nov. 13th and it took him a while to get going offensively with two goals and three points in his first 10 games. That’s partially masked how big of a threat he’s been for a while now. From Dec. 4th onward, Hyman has shined with 12 goals and 22 points in 23 games. In spite of that, Hyman is still owned in just 25% of leagues. That’s somewhat understandable given that in previous seasons he’s been good, but not great offensively and the high powered Maple Leafs’ offense features far bigger names who get most of the attention, but at this point, picking up Hyman is worthy of serious consideration.

Jesper Bratt, Devils – LW/RW: Bratt was having a pretty quiet season with six goals and nine points in 27 contests before Taylor Hall was dealt to the Arizona Coyotes. Since the trade though, he’s seen an uptick in responsibilities and his production has climbed up along with it. He went from averaging 13:12 minutes before the trade to 15:07 minutes over his last 13 contests. Over that recent span he has three goals and 10 points in 13 games. Bratt has been playing alongside Nico Hischier and Kyle Palmieri, who were Hall’s former linemates, so it has been a case of Bratt getting a nice opportunity as a result of the trade.

Kevin Hayes, Flyers – C: Hayes has been a hot-and-cold player this season. That combined with his center-only eligibility makes him a tough sell as a player to pick up and hold long-term. If you’re interested in short-term pickups though, you can attempt to strategically grab and drop him. In that regard, this might be a good time to consider him because it looks like he’s at the beginning of a new hot streak with two goals and five points in his last four games, including a three-point showing on Saturday.

Nick Suzuki, Canadiens – C/RW: The Calder Trophy conversation right now is basically Quinn Hughes versus Cale Makar – and for good reason, those two defensemen have had excellent campaigns. That said, there a few rookie forwards who have been standing out too and one of them is Suzuki. With 10 goals and 33 points in 54 games this season, he ranks fourth in the rookie scoring race. He’s had some prolonged cold streaks, such as his recent stretch from Dec. 31-Jan. 18 of just two goals and four points in 11 games, but he’s also had some really great runs and he’s on one right now with a goal and six points in his last four games.

Tyler Ennis, Senators – LW/RW: Ennis is having his best season in years with 13 goals and 30 points in 52 contests thanks in part to him having a significantly bigger role with Ottawa than he did in Toronto or Minnesota. He’s still been somewhat hot-and-cold, so he’s not a great option all the time, but right now he’s enjoying one of his hot streaks with two goals and five points in his last five games.

Anthony Cirelli, Lightning – C: From Jan. 14th onward, Cirelli has been one of the league’s top performers with four goals and 10 points in seven games. Of course, he’s been pretty good all season with 13 goals and 37 points in 51 games. His center-only eligibility is his biggest knock at this point, but even with that in mind, you could do worse than having him on your team long-term.

Players You May Want To Drop

Cam Atkinson, Blue Jackets – RW: Atkinson had an amazing run of eight goals and 12 points in 11 contests, but that’s behind him now. He hasn’t gotten a point in any of his last four games, even as the Blue Jackets as a squad continue to excel. Atkinson is a player worth always keeping an eye on because when he’s at his best, he’s superb, but I think for some owners it’s okay to risk exposing him to the free agent pool during the stretches where he’s not producing.

James Neal, Oilers – LW/RW: Neal has a foot injury right now, but that might not end up being a significant injury. Even if you take that out as a factor though, Neal just hasn’t done that much. He had that amazing run of 11 goals in his first 14 games, but he’s found the back of the net just eight times in the 36 games that followed and that’s even with his hat trick on Dec. 31st. He hasn’t even really had a meaningful hot streak since October. Neal will almost certainly find his way back to the 20-goal milestone after falling well short of that in 2018-19, but that’s mostly just thanks to that hot start. If you missed out on that, there hasn’t been much benefit to owning Neal this season.

Alex Killorn, Lightning– LW/RW: With 20 goals and 40 points in 50 games, Killorn has already set a new career-high in goals and matched his 2018-19 points total. He’s never recorded more than 47 points in a single season, so it’s not at all hard to believe that this will be the 30-year-old’s best campaign to date. That said, he’s largely riding on his early success at this stage. From Nov. 18-Dec. 31 he was playing like an elite with 13 goals and 28 points in 23 games, but since then he has five goals and six points in 14 contests, including just three points in his last nine contests. Even if you decide against dropping him right now because, again, his season overall has been spectacular, you should keep a critical eye on him over the next couple weeks. It’s entirely plausible that his best days of the 2019-20 campaign are behind him.

Tomas Hertl, Sharks – C/LW: This one is more of just a reminder of the unfortunate. Hertl suffered a torn ACL/MCL on Wednesday and he won’t play again this season as a result, so dropping him if you’re in a single season league is a no brainer. I would however like to take this time to encourage you to keep him in mind when it comes to fantasy drafts for 2020-21. He was underperforming a little – along with the Sharks as a team – before the injury so that combined with his season being cut short could lead to him slipping in drafts next season. You might get very good value for selecting him as a result.

Anthony Duclair, Senators – LW/RW: Duclair is having a strong season with 21 goals and 34 points in 51 contests. The catch is that most of his production has been the result of a couple big hot streaks. He had five goals and eight points in eight games from Oct. 23-Nov. 9 and another 11 goals and 15 points in 10 games from Dec. 3-21. Since his latest hot streak, he’s been limited to just four assists in 14 games. Feel free to drop him for now and just keep an eye out for his next big run.

If you’re looking for fantasy hockey information, Rotoworld is a great resource. You can check the player news for the latest information on any player and insight into their fantasy outlook.

Every week Michael Finewax looks ahead at the schedule and offers team-by-team notes in The Week Ahead. I have a weekly Fantasy Nuggets column where I basically talk about whatever’s captured my attention that week. Gus Katsaros does an Analytics columns if you want to get into detailed statistical analysis. If you’re interested in rookies and prospects, there’s a weekly column on that written by McKeen’s Hockey.

For everything fantasy hockey, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, and follow @Rotoworld_ HK and @RyanDadoun on Twitter.

PHT Morning Skate: Seattle leaves door open for Kraken; Flyers vs. Disney

Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

• John Hoven of Mayor’s Manor caused a stir during a Mayor’s Minutes Segment on NHL Network Radio, claiming that Seattle settled upon Kraken as the name. Russian Machine Never Breaks ranked among the outlets who amplified that report. (Mayor’s Manor.)

• NHL Seattle played coy (fish?) about the rumors, puffing up for this silly tweet:

• The Seattle Times’ Geoff Baker did a deep dive on the subject of the team possibly using the name of a sea monster. There’s some vivid stuff in there, including details about Seattle Sockeyes not working because of a series of romance novels. Oh, and then Jami Davenport (author of said Sockeyes series) claimed that she wasn’t the holdup. It’s a lot. (Seattle Times)

• Shifting gears to the Bruins, Joe Haggerty discusses Charlie McAvoy‘s struggles this season. (NBC Sports Boston)

• Red Wings forward Givani Smith details how he used his father’s lessons to combat racism on his road to the NHL. (Detroit Free-Press)

• Sam Carchidi provides a fascinating report on the Flyers meeting with the league’s schedule-makers to address concerns. After all, they lead the NHL with 17 back-to-back sets this season, and also appear to play a lot of “tired” games. The Flyers’ biggest hurdle: Disney on Ice? (Philadelphia Inquirer)

• An argument for the Senators waiting closer to the trade deadline to move Anthony Duclair. To me, it’s all about what they’re being offered, as his value will never be higher. Actually, attentive teams might already notice Duclair’s game cooling off; he only has an assist in his last eight games, and scored his most recent goal on Dec. 21. (Sportsnet)

• Read up about Martin Frk and that 109.2 mph slapshot. (Sports Illustrated)

• If you’re of a certain (my) age, you’ll feel that much older learning that Chris Drury is the GM of the 2020 U.S. Men’s National Team. (USA Hockey)

• Hard-hitting and soft-snuggling stuff about how the Canucks are going to hug their way to glory. (Vancouver is Awesome)

• Adam Gretz provides a long-term outlook for the Penguins’ promising, term-packed defense after the Marcus Pettersson extension. (Pensburgh)

• There’s a remarkable crossover between hockey and pro wrestling fans. With that in mind, that significant portion of hockey fans will enjoy this bit about New Day Star Xavier Woods’ NHL All-Star experience. It’s a fun story, yes it is. (ESPN)

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Hockey’s young stars shine in NHL All-Star 3-on-3 tournament

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ST. LOUIS (AP) — Young Laila Anderson delivered one of the most poignant moments of the weekend when she introduced the Blues’ four All-Stars. The players who stood out on the ice later weren’t all that much older.

Hockey’s youth was on grand display in the NHL All-Star 3-on-3 tournament on Saturday night, which was won by the Pacific Division. Whether it was Boston’s 23-year-old David Pastrnak earning MVP honors with six points or Vancouver’s 21-year-old Elias Pettersson scoring twice and trying a lacrosse goal, the fifth incarnation of 3 on 3 making up the All-Star Game was a showcase of the game’s present and future.

”It’s a young man’s game now in the NHL, and these guys, they’re superstars,” Dallas Stars forward Tyler Seguin said.

The night featured as many swear words during Green Day’s performance as saves by some of the goaltenders, who aren’t exactly in a good spot with more open ice than defense going on. Things tightened up and the final before the Pacific beat the Atlantic 5-4 and claim the $1 million prize.

”The second half, they turn it on and started to really play, which is good for the All-Star Game,” said Pastrnak, who gets a car for his four goals and two assists. ”We’re all having fun, but it comes to the end that we are all hockey players and it’s in our nature that everybody wants to win. Even if you’re playing and having fun, you still want to win.”

Along the way, there were plenty of opportunities for players to try things they ordinarily wouldn’t in a game that counts. Along with Pettersson, Chicago veteran Patrick Kane thought about celebrating his eighth NHL All-Star appearance by lifting the puck in lacrosse style before his hockey sense kicked in.

”I was thinking about it at that moment, and then I was kind of thinking that our team kind of needed a goal,” said Kane, who was cheered and booed in enemy territory. ”Then I gave away the puck anyway, so I should’ve just tried it.”

One of the most memorable parts of the night came when lead singer Billie Joe Armstrong swore multiple times during Green Day’s performance, words that could be heard in-arena but were bleeped on the TV broadcast.

”I heard a lot of F-bombs,” Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy said. ”I was like, is this OK?”

Before that, there were family friendly moments and reminders of the Blues’ Stanley Cup run last season. Anderson, the 11-year-old whose courageous battle with a rare immune disorder served as the team’s inspiration when winning its first Cup title, announced Blues All-Stars Ryan O'Reilly, Jordan Binnington, David Perron and Alex Pietrangelo.

”She was really good, too,” said Blues forward David Perron, who along with O’Reilly gave Anderson a hug when they were introduced. ”She had a good voice and was pretty loud and she had fun doing it, so it certainly was special for all four of us.”

St. Louis natives Jon Hamm and Jenna Fischer and Hockey Hall of Fame Blues alumni Wayne Gretzky and Brett Hull spent time behind the benches as honorary captains. With less pressure and more pomp and circumstance, even usually intense Blues coach Craig Berube could relax.

”I didn’t do much coaching,” Berube said. ”I just stood there. It’s kind of nice, you just watch and watch the skill level and the talent out there and really just not have to engage too much. It’s stress-free.”

Blues fans who cheered Binnington’s success in the skills competition Friday didn’t get to see their players reach the 3-on-3 final because the Central Division lost the Western Conference semifinal 10-5 to the Pacific. Calgary’s Matthew Tkachuk, who grew up in St. Louis, had two goals and two assists including the game-winner.

Pastrnak and Ottawa Senators forward Anthony Duclair each had a hat trick to help the Atlantic beat the Metropolitan in the Eastern Conference semifinal.

”I just wanted to show what I can do,” said Duclair, whose comeback season has been one of the best stories in the NHL thus far. ”When you’re playing with the best players in the world, you’re going to make some plays.”

Those plays came fast and furious and not without some drama. After some incidents during Oilers-Flames games this season left no love lost between the heated Alberta rivals, Draisaitl could be seen – perhaps jokingly – cursing at Tkachuk after setting him up for a goal.

”It was a nice play by him,” Draisaitl said with a laugh. ”We’re all here to have fun. We’re all here to have a good time and things like that, they happen in the game but this is not the time to be grumpy about anything.”

There’s plenty of time for that the rest of the NHL season.