Alex Turcotte

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PHT Face-Off: Hart’s splits; Kase’s impact on Bruins

It’s Monday which means it’s time for the PHT Face-Off. We’ll look at different storylines from around the NHL and we’ll also break down certain trends that apply to the upcoming week.

Ondrej Kase‘s impact on Bruins

The Bruins acquired Kase from the Ducks for a first-round draft pick, but they also got to shed a good chunk of David Backes’ salary (that alone has a significant amount of value). But how was Kase fit in with his new team?

Well through five games, he’s picked up one assist and four penalty minutes while averaging 14:21 of ice time per game. It’s a small sample size, but the offensive side of his game hasn’t kicked in just yet.

Here’s what Joe Haggerty thinks:

Let’s compare and contrast his advanced numbers from 2019-20 (via Natural Stat Trick):

With Anaheim:
CF%: 54.66, FF%: 53.31, XG%: 49.55, HDCF%: 51

With Boston:
CF%: 48.78, FF%: 52.87, XG%: 49, HDCF%: 47.62

There’s a few things to keep in mind here. Again, it’s only five games. It’s the first time in his career that he gets traded, so it might take him a little bit more time to adjust to his new team. Give him some time.

Carter Hart‘s home/road splits:

Hart is having a terrific year for the Flyers. He’s a big reason why they’re in the hunt for top spot in the Metropolitan Division. But his home/road splits are so different.

In 24 games at home: He owns a 20-2-2 record with a 1.61 goals-against-average and .944 save percentage.

In 18 games on the road: He has a 4-10-1 record with a 3.81 goals-against-average and a .857 save percentage.

How is that going to work come playoff time? There’s a decent chance that they’ll have home-ice advantage in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, so maybe it doesn’t affect the team as much, but what happens as the playoffs keep rolling? It’s going to be an interesting story to follow.

Will they split time between Hart and Brian Elliott in the postseason?

Here’s a tweet from last week that’s still somewhat relevant today:

Alex Galchenyuk finally comes through for Minnesota: 

Galchenyuk has played for four different teams over the last three seasons. He went from a long stint in Montreal, to a one-year term in Arizona, to a 45-game stint in Pittsburgh, to Minnesota.

He was part of the trade that sent Jason Zucker to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Galchenyuk is on an expiring contract and he may or may not be brought back in Minnesota. If the season doesn’t end well for him, what happens to him? Does he get another chance in the NHL? probably. But he’s running out of those.

The former third overall pick is still just 26 years old, but it seems like teams aren’t interested in keeping him around very long.

He didn’t exactly get off to a hot start in Minnesota, as he had four points in his first 11 games (two came in the same game). But he’s started making a little bit more of an impact on a team that’s hoping to make the playoffs.

Last night, he registered the primary assist on Mats Zuccarello‘s game-tying goal (1-1) and he added one of his own in the third frame to give his team a 4-3 lead (they eventually won in overtime).

He also scored a big second-period goal in last week’s 3-2 win over the San Jose Sharks.

Can he find a permanent home in Minnesota?

• Which Wisconsin first-rounders will go pro?

Cole Caufield, K’Andre Miller and Alex Turcotte. Will they be leaving the University of Wisconsin? Now that the team’s disappointing season has come to an end, we can finally start discussing whether or not these players will leave the Badgers.

Miller is two years into his career at Wisconsin, Turcotte and Caufield both wrapped up their first year.

Miller, a 20-year-old defenseman, had seven goals and 18 points in 36 games this season. He already has NHL-ready size, as he’s listed at 6-foot-3, 206 pounds. The Rangers made him the 22nd overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft.

“I would guess that both (Miller) and [Flyers’ seventh-rounder] Wyatt (Kalynuk)  are going to have offers there for them,” head coach Tony Granato said, per Madison.com. “On (Turcotte) and Cole, I don’t really know. There might be a couple other guys that have opportunities. That’s something that we’ll look into talking about as the week goes along.”

Turcotte, who was Los Angeles’ fifth overall pick in 2019, had nine goals and 26 points in 29 games at Wisconsin this year. The 19-year-old also had two assists in five games for Team USA at the World Juniors this year.

The Kings won’t be good anytime soon, so you’d think that they’d want to take their time developing one of their high-end prospects.

And Caufield actually led the team in goals (19) and points (36) in 36 games this year. Those are impressive numbers for a freshman, but he’s also listed at 5-foot-7, 162 pounds. He also wasn’t much of a factor at the World Juniors (one goal, one assist in five games).

According to Pierre LeBrun, Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin will meet with his 2019 first-round draft pick at some point this week. The Habs are already loaded with small players, but they don’t have an elite scorer. How quickly can Caufield become an effective player at the NHL level?

Bergevin’s job doesn’t appear to be in jeopardy heading into next season, but you’d have to think that next year will be his final opportunity to get his team into the postseason. At the same time, he’s also mentioned repeatedly that he won’t jeopardize the team’s future for immediate results.

This should be an interesting one.
What’s coming up this week?
• Playoff Preview? Tampa vs. Toronto, Tue. Mar. 10, 7 p.m. ET
Shea Weber vs. Nashville, Tue. Mar. 10, 7 p.m. ET
• Second-Round Playoff Preview? Boston vs. Toronto, Sat. Mar. 14, 7 p.m. ET
Joe Pavelski revenge game: Sharks vs. Stars, Sat. Mar. 14, 9 p.m. ET

NHL on NBCSN:
• Bruins vs. Flyers, Tue. Mar. 10, 7 p.m. ET
• Predators vs. Wild, Sun. Mar. 15, 7 p.m. ET

Wednesday Night Hockey: 
• Sharks vs. Blackhawks, Wed. Mar. 11, 8 p.m. ET

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

Kings face key stages of rebuild with trade deadline, 2020 NHL Draft

NBC’s coverage of the 2019-20 NHL season continues with Saturday’s Stadium Series matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Los Angeles Kings from Falcon Stadium at the U.S. Air Force Academy. Coverage begins at 8 p.m. ET on NBC. You can watch the game online and on the NBC Sports app by clicking here.

While the Avalanche hope to become true Stanley Cup contenders, the Kings wonder how to reclaim that form.

The next few months are crucial for both teams, only in dramatically different ways. After looking at Colorado’s climb to contention, let’s ponder how the Kings are handling their rebuild.

Kings get off to strong start with rebuild

Experts already rave about the building blocks the Kings have amassed.

The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler (sub required) and The Hockey Writers’ Josh Bell both ranked the Kings’ farm system number one in recent articles. In fact, Wheeler ranked the Kings first with “no hesitation.”

They seem to be combining quantity with quality. Wheeler’s Athletic colleague Corey Pronman placed six Kings prospects in his top 100 rankings (sub required), with Arthur Kaliyev finishing highest at seventh. Five of those six landed in the top 50 of that list, with Samuel Fagemo barely missing at 53.

You can nitpick elements of that pool, as with just about any. But overall, it seems like the Kings are pressing many of the right buttons. So far.

Trade deadline provides opportunities as Kings rebuild

Rob Blake could accelerate this rebuild with deft trades.

To his credit, he was already aggressive in landing a nice haul for Jake Muzzin last season, and once again extracted a solid package from Toronto in the Jack Campbell trade.

Neither Tyler Toffoli nor Alec Martinez boast the same trade value as Muzzin, but maybe the Kings can seize some opportunities anyway? This year’s deadline market seems pretty shallow, so perhaps Blake may take advantage.

Who should stick around?

Looking further down the line, it’s tough to imagine the Kings shaking loose from Jeff Carter or Dustin Brown. Moving Jonathan Quick also sounds unlikely.

(That said, the Kings should pull the trigger if there are suitors, and if Carter and others would comply.)

Ultimately, your optimism may vary regarding the futures for veteran stars Kopitar (32, $10M AAV through 2023-24) and Doughty (30, $11M AAV through 2026-27). Actually, go ahead and take a moment to wince at those contracts. That’s a natural reaction.

There’s only so much the Kings can do about the aging curve, at least since they already signed the extensions. The Kings could at least take steps to be proactive, though, with hopes that Doughty and/or Kopitar can still help out once the prospects (hopefully) bloom.

Right now, Doughty is averaging almost 26 minutes of ice time per game (25:56) while Kopitar is logging almost 21 (20:46). With the Kings far out of contention, I must ask … why would you run them into the ground? Wouldn’t it be wiser to take measures to keep them fresher for 2020-21 and beyond?

That’s where Todd McLellan creates an interesting dialogue. On one hand, there’s evidence that he’s a good or even very good coach, including in Hockey Viz’s breakdowns. That data argues that McLellan positively impacts his teams on both ends, especially lately:

McLellan HockeyViz

The Kings can’t judge their coach based on structure alone, though. McLellan received some criticism for how he handled young players like Jesse Puljujarvi in Edmonton, so Los Angeles must be wary about McLellan’s development impact.

If McLellan can’t be convinced to scale down minutes for the likes of Doughty and Kopitar (at least after the deadline, in particular), then that’s a contextual problem, too.

Kings need some lottery ball luck for next phase of rebuild

Right now, the Kings rank as the worst team in the West, and second worst in the NHL. The Senators could sink below the Kings and grab the second-best lottery odds:

via NHL.com

Shrewd moves propel rebuilds forward, but luck is crucial, too. As excited as people are about their prospects, the Kings’ rebuild could swing based on getting the chance to draft Alexis Lafreniere, landing another blue-chipper like Quinton Byfield, or slipping just out of the truly elite range.

[Mock Draft for 2020; prospect rankings heading into the season]

Up to this point, the Kings are doing a good job “making their own luck.” Even so, the trade deadline and 2020 NHL Draft represent the biggest make-or-break moments of all.

Kenny Albert, Eddie Olczyk, and Brian Boucher will call the matchup. On-site studio coverage at Air Force Academy will feature Kathryn Tappen hosting alongside analyst Patrick Sharp and reporter Rutledge Wood.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Kings’ rebuild: Where there’s hope, where they’re stuck

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Each day in the month of August we’ll be examining a different NHL team — from looking back at last season to discussing a player under pressure to identifying X-factors to asking questions about the future. Today we look at the Los Angeles Kings. 

One doesn’t have to strain to think of some rather dire scenarios for the Los Angeles Kings, especially when you look at a salary cap that’s just bursting with ugly contracts.

This post aims for something different by asking: where can the Kings turn things around, and where are they stuck?

Let’s break the situation down by categories.

[MORE: Three Questions | X-factor | Under Pressure]

Prospects waiting in the wings

Players like Alex Turcotte will be pushing for roster spots … eventually. In some cases (if Gabriel Vilardi gets unexpected health luck, maybe?), possibly soon. But for this exercise, let’s move along to the guys the Kings should phase out to open up space — roster and cap — for prospects.

The Pillars

If the Kings were ever going to move on from Anze Kopitar or Drew Doughty — dubious at best, anyway — it was going to be before they signed either player to their current deals. Kopitar, soon to be 32, carries a $10M cap hit through 2023-24. Doughty, 29, has an $11M AAV through 2026-27.

That’s scary, but there’s a chance that 2018-19 was an anomaly, and both may age more gracefully going forward.

Probably not moving away from Quick quickly

Kopitar and Doughty share something in common with Jonathan Quick beyond being faces of the franchise: all three players see big salaries in 2019-20, while their salaries at least drop off – sometimes steeply – in future seasons.

That thought leads me to believe that Quick’s most realistic window to be traded would be after this season.

As much as I’d advise the Kings to trade the 33-year-old as soon as possible, another team would find him far more palatable in 2020-21 and beyond. Consider that 2019-20 is the final season where Quick costs more in actual salary ($7M) than his $5.8M cap hit. From 2020-21, his actual salary sinks to $3.5M, then $3M in 2021-22, and finally $2.5M in 2022-23.

A two-time champion goalie whose salary is lower than his cap hit? Now that’s a decent elevator pitch for a trade.

Trade bait

Speaking of players who were once important, the Kings might be wise to move on from contracts with limited term, much like they did with Jake Muzzin.

Tyler Toffoli is entering a contract year, and considering how ice-cold he was in 2018-19, he’d likely fetch the best return during the trade deadline after his production ideally stabilizes. Alec Martinez could be quite enticing as a defenseman who costs an affordable $4M in cap space for the next two seasons. Toffoli is 27 and Martinez is 32, so if the Kings are honest with themselves, they’ll likely both be a little long in the tooth by the time Los Angeles truly sorts things out.

There are players the Kings would more readily trade, but the difference is that other teams would actually want Toffoli and Martinez.

Unlikely to move

Jeff Carter‘s plummet in skill would already make it tough to trade him at his $5M+ cap hit (which runs through 2021-22, yikes). He’s also discussed possibly retiring if he were traded, making a trade even dicier.

Ilya Kovalchuk is equally difficult to trade for anything but a bad contract for bad contract swap, and that’s making the shaky assumption that he’d even waive a no-trade clause.

The bright side with Carter (expiring after 2021-22), Kovalchuk (2020-21), and Dustin Brown (2021-22) is that their contracts are expiring … reasonably soon. Ish.

And, really, with their salaries diving below their cap hits soon, they might actually be good filler if the Kings semi-tank.

***

The Kings have a lot of bad money on the books, so here’s hoping the Dion Phaneuf buyout lingers as a reminder of how costly it can be to go with a quick-fix approach. This team needs a rebuild, and while it doesn’t have the same ammo that the Rangers did with theirs, if you squint, you can see signs of hope.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Kings’ 2019 NHL Draft crop gives much-needed hope

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Ever since Rob Blake took over as Los Angeles Kings GM, they’ve developed an interesting trend of being stuck in the past in some ways, yet showing far-reaching vision in others.

When it comes to their aging core players, the choices have been risky. Instead of making the painful decision to move on from Drew Doughty, they handed the 29-year-old an extension where his enormous $11 million cap hit runs through 2026-27. Anze Kopitar is already 31, and his $10M cap hit won’t expire until after 2023-24. That’s $21M that could really start to sour for the Kings, and they’re far from the only veterans who could look long in the tooth, and plenty already do.

In many cases, the Kings feel at least a little stuck, as it might not even be plausible to trade away problem deals like Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, or Ilya Kovalchuk, while the Kings haven’t had the stomach to wave goodbye to Jonathan Quick.

So … yeah. Let’s just say that Todd McLellan has his work cut out for him next season.

The good news, though, is that the Kings are soaring at the “rebuilding on the fly” portion of their plan. While the Colorado Avalanche arguably had the strongest crop of all, the Kings drew well-earned acclaim for their own work, and suddenly things aren’t as royally painful for a franchise that hit a big hole in the road this past season.

[2019 NHL Draft Results: Round 1; Rounds 2-7; Winners and losers]

At least, the Kings seemingly knocked it out of the park. As we’ve seen with health concerns for Gabriel Vilardi (11th overall, 2017), it remains difficult to truly tell how high school-aged prospects will actually pan out.

All we can do is make guesses that are as educated as possible, and consensus praise is usually a promising sign. That’s what the Kings received for their work in the 2019 NHL Draft, from some of their top picks, to the fuller picture of depth choices.

Let’s consider a few specifics, and then zoom out.

Alex Turcotte – It feels silly to call the No. 5 pick a “steal,” although Elias Pettersson (fifth before Vilardi in 2017) shows that it can sometimes feel that way, nonetheless.

Some penciled in Turcotte as the third overall pick, but the Blackhawks went for a different center in Kirby Dach. After the Avalanche lept to land Bowen Byram as the first defenseman pick at fourth overall, the opportunity opened up for the Kings to select Turcotte.

For a Kings team that seems to have been left behind in the dust as the NHL gets speedier and more skilled, Turcotte’s talent makes this pick appeal to me. But the Kings were a sandpaper plus skill team during their two Stanley Cup runs, so they likely are also enticed by the edge that also apparently surfaces in his game.

“He’s a beast,” Top overall pick Jack Hughes said of Turcotte, recalling their many days together in the U.S. NTDP, via NHL.com’s Mike G. Morreale. “He plays a hard, heavy, skilled game and that’s a tough combination to deal with. Not only does he score goals and make plays, but he’s probably the best face-off guy on our team. A lot of his goals are net-front tips, rebounds and shots in front, proving he’s not just a skilled guy who can score from the perimeter but a guy who goes to the net.”

Tobias Bjornfot: While Turcotte was described as a “home run” by the likes of The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler (sub required), some wonder if Bjornfot was a bit of a reach at 22.

Still, in a first round where teams really reached at times (see: Moritz Seider not even believing he went sixth overall), Bjornfot went around pick 32 on average by Habs Eyes on the Prize’s consensus collection of mock drafts. So, not the end of the world, and their next pick was almost as exciting as Turcotte at 5.

Arthur Kaliyev: Just about every sports draft has its one Aaron Rodgers moment: an expected first-rounder falls all the way to day two.

Kaliyev wasn’t the only expected Friday pick who needed to wait until Saturday, but his snubbing might have been the most shocking. Unlike Bobby Brink likely falling because of his size, Kaliyev is listed at 6-foot-2.

You have to really go deep into armchair psychology about perceived effort to talk yourself out of a forward who scored 51 goals and 51 assists in 67 games for the OHL’s Hamilton Bulldogs last season, especially since he has the size you’d like to see in a top prospect.

In praising the Kaliyev pick (sub required), The Athletic’s Corey Pronman passed along this great quote from acting Bulldogs head coach Vince Laise:

“Arthur is one of the most dynamic players I’ve coached in the OHL in my six years here,” Laise said. “I coached Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat. In my opinion, Arthur is just as good a player as either of those two.”

Kaliyev just turned 18 on Wednesday, too, so he’s one of the youngest players of the 2019 NHL Draft. Sometimes, when you see a player dominate at a level, there’s the worry that they might be taking advantage of being just a bit older than their competition, which absolutely matters in those crucial development years. In Kaliyev’s case, critics couldn’t even knock him for that.

High marks: Personally, the picks of Turcotte and Kaliyev bode well for the Kings, most of all.

Expanding out, experts also approved of their overall haul. People gave the thumbs up for other picks, including Samuel Fagemo at 50th overall. Both Manny Elk and Corey Pronman gave the Kings an ‘A‘ for their work last weekend, and I haven’t personally seen any outlet bashing the work of Blake & Co. Pronman ranks among those who think it’s a special run:

It’s a big weekend, and I’m as excited about this Kings draft class as I’ve been about any I can recall in recent memory.

Last August, Pronman had already ranked the Kings’ system as 10th overall. While a lot can change in a year (see: the health worries about Vilardi, and prospects like Pettersson blowing away expectations), it’s promising that the Kings added a stellar round of selections to a farm system that was already improving.

***

Naturally, the Kings still have far more work to do.

If I were Blake, I’d move Alec Martinez. Much like Jake Muzzin, Martinez’s contract is likely to run out before the Kings are truly competitive again, so it’s better to try to snag something promising in return, particularly if Martinez nets a first-rounder like Muzzin did. I’d also trade Jonathan Quick while he still has perceived value around the NHL, as at 33, things could go downhill fast for a goalie who relies so much on athleticism.

Whether they make those courageous moves or not, the Kings must also develop the likes of Turcotte, Kaliyev, and Rasmus Kupari. Todd McLellan’s had a front row seat to prospects flaming out in Edmonton, if they need a reminder of development falling under the “easier said than done” category.

A lot can go wrong, and a lot more needs to be done, but it’s easier to picture better report cards when early exams come back with A’s and B-pluses. By most accounts, the Kings have passed their latest tests with flying colors, making their outlook far brighter today than it was even a full week ago.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Blackhawks solve first NHL Draft mystery: Kirby Dach at No. 3

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As much hype as Kaapo Kakko got as a possible top pick, the first two choices of the 2019 NHL Draft went as scripted, with the Rangers taking Kakko at No. 2, after the New Jersey Devils went with Jack Hughes at first overall. It was up to the Chicago Blackhawks to solve the first bit of intrigue, selecting Kirby Dach with the third overall pick.

If you’re looking for a reaction to all the talk of “heavy hockey” regarding the St. Louis Blues’ Stanley Cup run, this is the first obvious example.

Dach is very big, and that may perhaps help the forward make a quicker jump to the NHL. While he’s projected as a center, Dach may at least begin his career on the wing.

Center Alex Turcotte was getting a lot of mentions at this pick, as was Bowen Byram, who is believed to be the top defensive prospect.

Was Dach a reach? Some certainly believe so:

Habs Eyes on the Prize combined more than 10 draft rankings, and Dach’s average pick was seventh, so put that in the back of your mind, whether Dach proves the Blackhawks right, or if Chicago indeed is guilty of a reach.

Time will tell, as this only adds to the size vs. skill debate. That’s not to say that Dach lacks skill, but some will wonder if he’s skilled enough to go third overall.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.