Pandemic Punts

The Buzzer: Painful Devils own-goal, more from NHL on Thursday

By James O'BrienMar 12, 2021, 12:35 AM EST

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NHL Three Stars from Thursday

1. Anthony Mantha, Detroit Red Wings

The Lightning have been able to surge back into games lately. Maybe they’ve pulled it off often enough that they took such rallies for granted?

Either way, the Red Wings didn’t win pretty against the Lightning, but they made it happen nonetheless. Anthony Mantha loomed as the biggest reason why, scoring a goal and two assists.

(Sure, one of the assists came on an empty-netter, but still.)

Over the previous 11 games, Mantha only managed one point: a goal against the Blue Jackets on March 2. If the Red Wings are going to compete sometime during Mantha’s prime (26 years old, zero career playoff games), they’ll need his contributions. Losing like this has to take a lot out of you. So good for him for enjoying a big night.

2. Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins

Marchand, on the other hand, hasn’t had much trouble scoring lately. His Bruins have been stumbling a bit, however.

With three assists on Thursday, Marchand helped the Bruins dispatch the Rangers. Those three points pushed Marchand to 31 (12G, 19A) in 24 games this season.

Naturally, Patrice Bergeron (1G, 1A) and David Pastrnak (1G) got in on the action for Boston, too.

Depending upon your preference, you might tab Jaroslav Halak for this spot, or at least one of the three star selections for the NHL on Thursday. He pitched a 27-save shutout on Thursday. Halak’s only allowed two goals over his last three starts.

3. Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets

The Jets almost stole a win against the Maple Leafs for two reasons: Connor Hellebuyck, and Nikolaj Ehlers.

Nikolaj Ehlers gets the slight edge over Oliver Bjorkstrand as three-point performers whose teams lost on Thursday in the NHL. Ehlers scored his two goals on his two SOG, while Hellebuyck kept Winnipeg in the game with 34 saves.

Remember when there were rumblings about the Jets trading Ehlers? Back then, those who dug deeper into the game realized how foolish it would have been for Winnipeg to move such a transition beast as Ehlers. With 28 points in 26 games, Ehlers won’t be slipping under many radars any longer.

Another Laine benching, Binnington extension, honorable mentions

The Blues made big news with a bold (and baffling?) six-year, $36 million extension for Jordan Binnington.
Oliver Bjorkstrand’s great performance couldn’t keep the Blue Jackets from dropping a 4-1 lead. Patrik Laine contributed to Bjorkstrand’s night, but ultimately ended up getting benched. Read more about the latest Blue Jackets headaches here.
While the Stars kept Kevin Lankinen from making a three stars jump, he really limited them in Chicago’s win.
Josh Leivo scored both of the Flames’ goals in a slim 2-1 win over the Habs.

Highlights of Thursday night in the NHL

Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets tried, but you can only give Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs so many chances.

Lowlight: An especially brutal own-goal

Look, Damon Severson is a good defenseman, especially for the Devils. But this own-goal was brutal, and could be useful if anyone wanted to explain how alone Mackenzie Blackwood must feel at times.

Thursday’s NHL scores

Bruins 4, Rangers 0
Penguins 5, Sabres 2
Islanders 5, Devils 3
Capitals 5, Flyers 3
Hurricanes 5, Predators 1
Panthers 5, Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Maple Leafs 4, Jets 3 (OT)
Red Wings 6, Lightning 4
Blackhawks 4, Stars 2
Flames 2, Canadiens 1

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Pandemic Punts: Are the Dallas Stars legit contenders in 2020-21?

By James O'BrienDec 13, 2020, 3:24 PM EST

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Different NHL teams come into the 2020-21 season with different expectations. Yet, with COVID-19 looming to throw a wrench in even the best-laid plans, PHT asks: what if each of the NHL’s 31 teams had to “punt” their 2020-21 season? Some situations are more realistic than others, but hopefully this serves as an interesting exercise. In the latest edition of Pandemic Punts, PHT looks at the 2020-21 Dallas Stars.

For previous editions of Pandemic Punts, click here.

Can the 2020-21 Stars continue to thrive with a thin margin of error?

Three goals. During the 2019-20 regular season, the Dallas Stars scored three more goals (180) than they allowed (177). One year before that, a 2018-19 Stars game that finished a goal from the 2019 Western Conference Final only enjoyed a +8 goal differential during that regular season.

True, goal differential is far from a tell-all stat. Bounces — both positive and negative — can really turn such figures on their head. And the Stars looked like a stronger team under Rick Bowness, particularly during their impressive run to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final.

You could also point out that the Stars made it that far, even with key players like Tyler Seguin far from 100 percent. There are a lot of reasons to believe that the Stars are here to stay, particularly for 2020-21.

But people who wondered how good the Stars really are weren’t totally outrageous for asking. And it’s fair to ask if a Stars team that defied those questions might become undone by those flaws in 2020-21.

However things turn out, this Stars team isn’t built with much room to punt.

What if an aging team takes some big steps back?

Look, not every piece of this 2020-21 Stars team is creaky and old. Most obviously, Miro Heiskanen stands out as a plausible future Norris Trophy winner at just 21 years old. If Bowness lets them loose, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Denis Gurianov and Roope Hintz picking up some of the slack, either.

So, you can throw a few “What abouts” out there to counter the notion that the 2020-21 Dallas Stars are mostly an old team. But they’re still mostly an older team.

Both Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin are 34. While they’ve put up tremendous numbers — and goalies sometimes age well — it’s uncommon to enjoy elite netminding year after year in the modern NHL.

All of that mileage, even before a deep playoff run, can come at a cost. Both Bishop and Seguin are expected to miss a significant chunk of the 2020-21 season while recovering from offseason surgeries. It wouldn’t be shocking to see others limp into the season, even if they suit up for the Stars.

Healthy or not, Joe Pavelski‘s already (somehow) 36, and Alexander Radulov is 34. Whether he’s truly been beeping horsebleep or not, Jamie Benn‘s already slowing down at 31.

Between injuries and the aging curve, it’s possible the Stars could take a big step back, or even just stagger. That could be significant if they’re once again walking that goal differential tightrope.

Not much to punt

So, what happens if the Stars drop — and drop hard?

Well, for better or worse, the team’s salary structure doesn’t really lend itself to a pandemic punt.

The players other teams would most likely want (Heiskanen, John Klingberg, etc.) are the ones the Stars must plan to keep. Meanwhile, others may not be too eager to take problem contracts off of the Stars’ hands.

Now, there are some veterans who could draw some mild interest during the 2021 NHL Trade Deadline. If things go sour, 33-year-old Andrew Cogliano could be viewed as the sort of “glue guy” who could help a team during the playoffs. Opposing GMs may have similar feelings about Blake Comeau, another veteran on an expiring contract.

And, yeah, maybe someone would view two runs with Radulov as intriguing. While he’s getting up there in age, Radulov’s $6.25M cap hit isn’t enormous. With some salary retention, there could be interest.

… But a selling scenario is far from ideal for the Stars. They’re likely expecting to be buyers instead, yet time will tell if the 2020-21 Stars can build on the growth from the past couple of years.

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Pandemic Punts: Can Blue Jackets be more than underdogs in 2020-21?

By James O'BrienDec 11, 2020, 12:43 PM EST

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For previous editions of Pandemic Punts, click here.

The baffling 2020-21 Blue Jackets

During the previous two seasons, it was easy to form a narrative for the Blue Jackets. Yet, heading into the 2020-21 NHL season, it’s difficult to get an overarching sense of where the Blue Jackets are really going.

Again, looking back, it’s interesting to track their trajectory. As you likely recall, Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen went for it during the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline. Instead of getting something for Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky — two free agents who would walk — the Blue Jackets instead added Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel. In the process, they essentially lit their 2019 NHL Draft stock on fire.

When it comes to those results, it depends on your expectations. On one hand, they pulled off that still-shocking-sweep of the dominant 2018-19 Lightning. Yet, after that triumph, the Blue Jackets fell to the Bruins in the second round. Were the Blue Jackets justified in swinging for the fences? Perhaps, but one playoff series win (even an unforgettable sweep) probably isn’t worth waiting until pick 104 to make your first selection.

After the smoke cleared from 2018-19, people understandably expected little of Columbus in 2019-20. Rather than falling apart without Bob and Bread, the Blue Jackets managed to hang in the East playoff bubble. Once again, they pulled off an upset in eliminating the Maple Leafs in the Qualifying Round. Yet, once again, they ran out of gas after squeezing every last drop out of John Tortorella’s system.

While the Blue Jackets hope Max Domi gives their offense a boost (and doesn’t give Torts too many conniptions), it’s fair to say that Columbus had a fairly quiet offseason overall. So … again, what can we really expect from the 2020-21 Blue Jackets?

Should they try to recoup some of those lost 2019 NHL Draft assets by punting? Are they in position to go from underdogs to somewhere closer to favorites? Let’s dig in.

Werenski, Jones won’t be cheap much longer

Take a look at the Blue Jackets roster, and front office, and you’ll see an interesting mix of good and bad — sometimes in the same people.

Over the years, John Tortorella’s reputation has fluctuated wildly. Is he something of a genius who can get the most out of a limited Blue Jackets roster? Perhaps he’s too old-school and “fiery” for his own good? Maybe it’s a combination of those thought processes. (Especially if you ponder questions such as “Did he rub Panarin the wrong way?”)

Even Seth Jones is a bit of a riddle. By the “eye test,” Jones ranks as an elite NHL defenseman. Yet, for those who dig deeper, Jones becomes more divisive. To me, he’s another reminder of how tough it can be to gauge defense in the sport, and maybe the most profound example of how the 2020-21 Blue Jackets are a tough nut to crack overall.

Detroit Red Wings v Columbus Blue Jackets — *(Photo by Jamie Sabau/NHLI via Getty Images)*

However you feel about Jones, there’s no denying that he’s crucial to the Blue Jackets. The same can be said of fellow defenseman Zach Werenski.

So, because it’s the 2020-21 Blue Jackets, there’s a mix of good and bad. The good is that both are young (Jones: 26; Werenski: 23), and relatively cheap (Jones: $5.4 million cap hit; Werenski: $5M). The less-good is that they’re only so cheap for two more seasons.

Tough questions about their approach (and money)

Looking at the Blue Jackets’ roster, there’s room to punt in 2020-21, if they want.

With Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo both on two-year deals, Columbus may opt to move one, if their season goes awry (and if there are fears of Seattle’s expansion draft). More pressingly, Nick Foligno and David Savard rank as aging veterans on expiring contracts.

It’s possible that Kekalainen will glance up and down that roster and decide to slightly retool. Maybe it’s best to take a step back, and regear a supporting cast around Jones, Werenski, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and possibly Domi?

That’s an idea, but the counter is that certain important forwards aren’t getting any younger.

Both Cam Atkinson and Gustav Nyquist are 31, with at least three years of term. It’s unlikely that the Blue Jackets signed 37-year-old Mikko Koivu with punting 2020-21 in mind, even if it was a one-year, low-dollar deal.

It’s all quite tricky. Especially when you consider less pleasant dollars-and-cents factors.

If box office revenue is even more limited for 2020-21, would the Blue Jackets be wise to move out money, and hope for a better push in 2021-22? (If Forbes’ numbers are at least somewhat accurate, it’s been a tough financial stretch for Columbus.)

It’s one thing to lose money while contending for the Stanley Cup, as reigning champion Tampa Bay may have done. (Again, if Forbes’ numbers are right.)

But what if the Blue Jackets’ ceiling is that of a staunch defensive team that can only make it so far? Would they be better off taking a step back now, in hopes of making a leap afterward? Again … with the 2020-21 Blue Jackets, it’s all quite baffling.

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Pandemic Punts: Will patient Hurricanes finally get in a hurry in 2020-21?

By James O'BrienDec 6, 2020, 3:47 PM EST

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For previous editions of Pandemic Punts, click here.

Hurry, Hurricanes

Following some truly lean years when their former playoff drought began in 2009-10, the Carolina Hurricanes then became a fashionable dark horse pick, year after year. For a while, the Hurricanes couldn’t quite convert those fancy stats into playoff berths. Then, they took another step with two straight playoff appearances, but fell well short against the Boston Bruins each time.

That “close, but no cigar” feeling hangs over these Carolina Hurricanes. Maybe it gnaws.

Consider that, during the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, things were skin-tight between the Hurricanes and Bruins early on. A tight 2-1 series that easily could’ve been locked up 2-2 spiraled out of control starting with a groaner of a Jake DeBrusk goal against James Reimer:

From there, the Bruins turned that Game 4 around, and ultimately punted the Hurricanes out of the playoffs in five games.

If the Hurricanes eventually go on to big and better things, then these setbacks can be part of the “learning process” medley for their championship DVD(s).* That if lingers like a toothache, though.

Sometimes good teams do incrementally improve to great ones. Put together enough baby steps, and maybe you take a leap. But there are also sports teams that seem like they’re going to knock on the door, only to miss their window for bigger things altogether.

For the patient Hurricanes, one must ask: how much longer must fans wait for this team to break through? If the 2020-21 Hurricanes end up having to punt on their season, who gets flushed out?

* – Do sports teams still make those? Save me the Google search.

With key decisions looming, Hurricanes were very quiet in offseason

With less than $1 million in cap space according to Cap Friendly, you could argue that the Hurricanes were boxed into a corner when it came to trying to improve during the offseason.

Besides, supporters would argue that the Hurricanes have been aggressive with recent and semi-recent moves. They brought in Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter, and Brady Skjei via trades during the past couple seasons. That trio accounts for more than $15M in AAV. Not exactly “standing pat.”

Still, we’ve seen seemingly cap-strapped teams get creative to improve. Look at the Vegas Golden Knights, a franchise that’s made bold move after bold move to take that next step.

Granted, not every Golden Knights move seems perfectly wise. Then again, you can say the same for the Hurricanes adding Brady Skjei, the type of defenseman who doesn’t exactly fit their analytics-friendly reputation. (Did Don Waddell squeeze that one in during a retreat when Eric Tulsky wasn’t in attendance, like when Paul Fenton wiggled the ill-fated Niederreiter trade into existence for Minnesota?)

Fair or not, it’s frustrating to see the Hurricanes ask for the check instead of indulging in the goalie buffet in free agency. Yes, Reimer (32, $3.4M cap hit) and Petr Mrazek (28, $3.125M) are under contract through 2021-22. But what if you could’ve bribed a team to take one of them off of your hands, then pursued, say, Corey Crawford?

Amid the Hurricanes’ many successes as a team-builder, their shaky goaltending frequently dilutes such advantages. And at about $6.5M AAV, it’s not as though the Hurricanes are killing it in value in that category, either.

It all sets the stage for a crucial 2020-21 season for Hurricanes

Generally, smart teams take a zen approach to improvement. Wait until those seams open. Take what the defense gives you; don’t throw into double coverage.

Maybe that’s how the Hurricanes view seeking out goaltending upgrades? Or the next big move? Going bolder could’ve meant forcing it.

Either way, the 2020-21 season may dictate key aspects of this Hurricanes team.

As we’ve explored, both Andrei Svechnikov and Dougie Hamilton enter contract years.

There’s still plenty of time to hash out both situations. When it comes to RFA extensions, there have been successes in being proactive, but also waiting until the last minute. Sebastian Aho, for example, is on a pretty Hurricanes-friendly deal despite being the target of an ultra-rare offer sheet. So the Hurricanes don’t need to extend Svechnikov, necessarily.

(I’d still do it ASAP if I were in their shoes, though.)

With Hamilton, it’s fair to realize that teams can sometimes regret extending the contract of an older defenseman. While Hamilton is leaps and bounds better than former Hurricanes defenseman Justin Faulk (in my opinion), the Hurricanes may note how bad the Faulk extension looks for the Blues.

The biggest potential Hurricanes punts for 2020-21 are those goalies, Reimer and Mrazek. Theoretically, the Hurricanes could move things around at the trade deadline. Maybe they could swap one of those two out for a goalie on an expiring contract, like Antti Raanta, Tuukka Rask, or Marc-Andre Fleury?

Being that several mid-level forwards are also on expiring contracts (Ryan Dzingel, Jordan Martinook, etc.), there’s also room to punt if the Hurricanes’ 2020-21 season goes sideways.

Rather than taking a step back, big strides forward would be the ideal for the Hurricanes in 2020-21. Whether the Hurricanes get in a hurry or not.

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Pandemic Punts: Patience running out for Flames’ Giordano-Gaudreau combo?

By James O'BrienDec 4, 2020, 4:15 PM EST

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For previous editions of Pandemic Punts, click here.

Is the Giordano – Gaudreau era in danger of ending if Flames don’t go on a run?

Following another playoff disappointment, rumors were swirling about the Flames possibly shopping Johnny Gaudreau. Luckily for the Flames and their fans, cooler heads prevailed.

Well, those heads stayed cool … for now.

With another clunker of a postseason (or worse), the calls to trade one or more of Gaudreau and Sean Monahan will only get louder.

For a GM known as a “riverboat gambler,” Brad Treliving made some interesting additions to the Flames.

Most prominently, Treliving rolled the dice that Jacob Markstrom could be the true go-to goalie Calgary’s been lacking. (The 30-year-old needs to be, as that six-year deal with a $6M AAV isn’t exactly a modest swing.)

Adding to their Canuck-nabbing, the Flames also said hello to Christopher Tanev (with another deal featuring risky term), and said goodbye to T.J. Brodie. Your results will vary on the wisdom of that shift (personally, I think it could end up being a pretty significant downgrade.)

Unfortunately, Treliving didn’t really throw any darts at a problem that’s likely to continue plaguing the Flames: depth scoring.

It’s one thing to lay all of the blame at the feet of the likes of Gaudreau. That certainly turns the temperature up on your takes, and makes for more sizzling headlines.

But as much as the postseason is about stars etching their legendary lore, just about every deep run demands unsung heroes to break through. When Gaudreau, Monahan, and Matthew Tkachuk falter (or get hurt), will anyone else step up?

It’s tough to say. Maybe the Flames can just limit the opposition so much that Gaudreau, Monahan, and Tkachuk merely need to score just enough to win?

Flames structure points to two big shots, but no guarantees

Logically speaking, it sure feels like the Johnny Gaudreau + Mark Giordano combination has two more big shots at a serious run. That said, a lousy 2020-21 season could prompt the Flames to shrink that window, too.

Barring an incredible offer, it’s tough to imagine the Flames winning any trade involving Gaudreau or Giordano. That’s because Gaudreau carries a paltry $6.75M cap hit for two more seasons, while Giordano’s $6.75M (also through 2021-22) should be easy to justify, even at age 37.

Perhaps you can sell high on one of them, but most likely, you’d be trading from an area of weakness if you decided to move on.

Either way, two years is that big flashing light at the end of the tunnel.

After two years, Gaudreau is nearly certain for a substantial raise, while Giordano — who knows? Maybe he’d go Chara-style with one-year installments; maybe he’d retire altogether. But even beyond that, Matthew Tkachuk is headed for a bump up from his $7M. With his $6.375M AAV running through 2022-23, Monahan breaks the two-year trend, yet the clock is ticking there, too.

Now, none of this absolutely shuts the door on this core making runs beyond 2021-22. (Granted, Giordano’s role would almost certainly be reduced as he approaches 40, if he doesn’t retire.)

But it sure feels like that could be a truly pivotal moment for the Flames’ franchise, unless they address that fork-in-the-road even sooner. That likely boils down to how the Flames fare in 2020-21.

An interesting structure

Either by design or coincidence, the Flames present a pretty interesting overall salary structure.

For one thing, Elias Lindholm (26, $4.85M for four more seasons) is really the only forward with significant term who the Flames would be wild not to trade. Mikael Backlund and especially Milan Lucic stand out as aging players whose contracts should make Calgary worried. (Backlund might age well, but at 31, we’ll see if the decline hits soon.)

Meanwhile, when it comes to trying to keep the puck out of the net, the Flames are locked-in.

Again, Markstrom brings a lot of risk, but potentially a lot of reward. Beyond Giordano’s short deal, the Flames have a lot of term locked up in their defense:

Noah Hanifin, 23, $4.9M cap hit through 2023-24.
Rasmus Andersson, 24, $4.955M through 2025-26.
Christopher Tanev, 30, $4.5M through 2023-24.

So, while the Flames’ forwards group is up in the air, they’re fairly secure “in their own zone.”

The youth of Hanifin + Andersson could really make these decisions sing, at least if they deliver. As someone who’s been lukewarm on Hanifin at times, it was heartening to see some of his underlying numbers looking reasonably solid. Judging by Evolving Hockey’s RAPM even-strength charts for Andersson and Hanifin, maybe you can mix and match them based on their strengths, and receive nice results?

Pandemic Punts: Patience running out for Flames' Giordano-Gaudreau combo? Anderson Hanifin Evolving Hockey RAPM — Some evidence to lean on Andersson defensively, and Hanifin on offense. **RAPM Chart via Evolving Hockey**

Now, it doesn’t seem like the Flames boast an obvious No. 1 defenseman whenever Mark Giordano ages out of that role. But if Calgary can figure that out, Andersson + Hanifin could have some use, at least at reasonable prices. And, ideally, Markstrom would clean up all of the rest.

Maybe the Flames should just play it cool?

Look, it’s understandable that the Flames might want to make changes. It had to be frustrating to see them get bottled up by the Stars after being throttled by the Avalanche in the previous postseason. And you can advance the argument that Johnny Gaudreau might be closer to “star” than “superstar.”

Blowing things up would likely only make things worse, though. Instead, the Flames should hold off on punting in 2020-21, and probably through Gaudreau’s current contract.

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

NHL Three Stars from Thursday

1. Anthony Mantha, Detroit Red Wings

2. Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins

3. Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets

Another Laine benching, Binnington extension, honorable mentions

Highlights of Thursday night in the NHL

Lowlight: An especially brutal own-goal

Thursday’s NHL scores

More NHL News

Can the 2020-21 Stars continue to thrive with a thin margin of error?

What if an aging team takes some big steps back?

Not much to punt

Top PHT Posts

The baffling 2020-21 Blue Jackets

Werenski, Jones won’t be cheap much longer

Tough questions about their approach (and money)

2020-21 NHL season

Hurry, Hurricanes

With key decisions looming, Hurricanes were very quiet in offseason

It all sets the stage for a crucial 2020-21 season for Hurricanes

Top Posts at PHT

Is the Giordano – Gaudreau era in danger of ending if Flames don’t go on a run?

Flames structure points to two big shots, but no guarantees

An interesting structure

Maybe the Flames should just play it cool?

Top Posts at PHT