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Jets might need to pay Trouba like a star, and that’s OK

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It’s been nearly two years since Jacob Trouba’s agent released a statement that shook the Winnipeg Jets and its fanbase.

Kurt Overhardt, Trouba’s agent at KO Sports, needed just four paragraphs to send Jets fans into hysteria. He began telling the hockey world that his client wouldn’t be heading to training camp that fall and that both he and the Jets had been working on finding an appropriate trade since that May, not long after the Jets missed the playoffs four the fourth time in five years since relocating to Winnipeg from Atlanta.

Overhardt wrote that it wasn’t about the money. Instead, he relayed that his client only wanted to realize his potential as a right-shot defenseman in the NHL. The Jets had been playing him on the left side, one part necessity given the team’s lack of depth on that side at the time, and another part, well, necessity, because the right side had all of the talent, Trouba was too good to be wasting away on the third pairing on the right and wasn’t happy with being more than serviceable and getting big minutes on the left.

By November, Trouba gave in, just days before he would have had to sit out the season.

He had no leverage at the time, and after missing 15 games, he signed a two-year bridge deal, rescinded his trade request, and went about his business.

The Jets, in turn, gave him what he wanted: a spot on the right side. And in the two seasons since being a wantaway, Trouba has realized his potential as one-half of one of the best shutdown pairings in the NHL with Josh Morrissey and the Jets.

Time, coupled with his wishes being granted and playing on a team with a window of opportunity open to take a run at Lord Stanley a couple times has seemingly offered Trouba a new lease on the outlook of his career.

This summer is about the money for Trouba. It’s time he gets paid, and with a July 20 arbitration date set, the term and the dollar amount could be public knowledge sometime in the next few days.

The only question at this point, barring the Jets trading him or letting it get to arbitration, is how much and for how long. The latter is likely obvious. Trouba will likely get the max eight years.

The question of what Trouba is worth, what he should make, etc., has been the talk of the town in Winnipeg. Everything from low-ball numbers that would surely get Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff locked up for grand larceny to numbers that rival the league’s top paid rearguards.

Sniffing around the surface isn’t going to turn up a good argument for P.K. Subban money. But put those paws to work, do a little digging, and what’s underneath starts to get quite interesting.

Despite playing just 55 games due to injury in the regular season, Trouba put up his third best point total (24) during his five-year NHL career. Keep digging and you’ll see that Trouba’s production numbers are in an elite category among NHL defenseman.

Trouba set career highs in assists/60 at 1.03, first assists/60 at 0.64 and was just short of his career-high in point/60 at 1.22. Trouba also averaged more shots/60 (7.31) than he had in his previous four seasons.

And he did all of this averaging 17:01 time-on-ice at five-on-five.

Compare this to, say, Victor Hedman, the league’s Norris Trophy winner this past season, and you see Trouba is keeping the same company.

Hedman had a higher goals/60 but trailed in assists/60 at 0.67 and first assists/60 at 0.34. Hedman edged out Trouba in points/60 at 1.25, but also consider that Hedman also played 1:29 more per game at 5-on-5 than Trouba.

The story is consistent when comparing Trouba to Drew Doughty, who played nearly 2:30 more per game, and P.K. Subban, who played a similar number of minutes as Trouba.

Here’s a handy-dandy spreadsheet:

Those are the three finalists for the 2017-18 Norris Trophy. Trouba may not have received a single vote for the NHL’s best defenseman award, but his name is in the conversation with the league’s best regardless of it being engraved on a piece of hardware.

Doughty is making $11 million a year on his new deal with the Los Angeles Kings.

Eleven. Million. Dollars.

Subban is hitting the Nashville Predators for $9 million per annum after the Montreal Canadiens went over the top to reward him, while Hedman’s taking home $7.875 million from the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The argument that Trouba’s numbers are suppressed can also be made. He’s not a focal point on the Jets power play, and sees half the ice time his contemporaries do with the man advantage.

• Hedman 3:24/G
• Doughty 3:09/G
• Subban 3:05/G
• Trouba 1:28/G

Trouba might not have the Norris nominations or other accolades at this stage in his career, but he has the stats to prove he’s worthy of them. And if he’s able to keep pace with the elite while being elite himself, why wouldn’t he get paid like his fellow elite counterparts?

Perhaps the most curious case for Trouba making bank in Winnipeg would be when you compare his numbers to that of Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg’s bruising d-man whose cap hit comes in at $7.6 million.

The same trend continue when comparing the two, with Trouba doing more with less than his aging teammate.

Of course, Trouba isn’t without fault.

Durability may be his biggest question mark.

Trouba has never played a full 82 games, and outside of one 81-game season, he’s never suited up for more than 65 in any of his five NHL seasons. It’s worth mentioning, given that per/ 60 numbers can be skewed by fewer games played, and teams pay their big-name defenseman big money to play big minutes (and the majority of games).

He’s not a prolific goal scorer on the back end either and he’s been criticized for his puck management skills.

Trouba has hit double digits in that category just once, scoring 10 times in his rookie season with the Jets. The argument can be made that if he played a full 82-game season, he could get there again, but that would mean, well, playing a full 82-game season.

What Trouba signs for, financially speaking, is going to be of interest across the league. He’s a premier defenseman in many categories even if the goal totals don’t reflect that.

He’s coming off a career-year in several departments and this brief glimpse seems to suggest that anything less than $8 million per season might be a steal for Cheveldayoff.

— stats via NaturalStatTrick


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

Nikita Kucherov’s $76 million extension with Lightning is a bargain

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While we wait to see how the Erik Karlsson situation is figured out, Steve Yzerman and the Tampa Bay Lightning are going about their business. On Tuesday, it was announced that they’ve re-signed forward Nikita Kucherov to an eight-year, $76 million extension.

“I’m truly grateful to sign this contract extension to keep me in Tampa for the next eight seasons today,” Kucherov said in a statement. “I’d like to thank the Lightning organization and all of the fans for the support since making the Bay Area my home.”

Kucherov has one year left on his current deal, which will pay him $5.55 million this coming season. According to Joe Smith of The Athletic, the extension has a full no-trade claude in the first four years.

The max deal for Kucherov means he’s one of five Lightning players — with Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh — signed through the 2023-24 NHL season. The contract, which kicks in at the start of the 2019-20 season, will put him tied — for the moment — for the sixth-highest cap hit ($9.5 million average annual value) in the league, and yet it still seems like a bargain (not to mention Florida’s state tax situation).

Via the AP’s Stephen Whyno, here’s how the contract breaks down:

19-20: $1M salary/$11M bonus: $12M
20-21: $4M salary/$5M bonus: $9M
21-22: $3.5M salary/$8.5M bonus: $12M
22-23: $4M salary/$5M bonus: $9M
23-24: $5M salary/$5M bonus: $10M
24-25: $5M salary/$4M bonus: $9M
25-26: $5M salary/$3M bonus: $8M
26-27: $4M salary/$3M bonus: $7M

Over the last two seasons only Connor McDavid has more points (208) than Kucherov (185), and only Alex Ovechkin (82) and Patrik Laine (80) have more goals than the 25-year-old Russian (79) since the 2016-17 season.

With the ceiling continuing to rise, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see Kucherov land an extension carrying a double-digit AAV. Yzerman has done a masterful job in Tampa navigating the tricky cap waters tying up his core pieces, while making some additions and still keeping the Lightning not only a playoff team but a Stanley Cup contender.

Here’s where the fun starts: Currently, the Lightning have a little over $65 million tied up in 12 players for the ’19-20 season, per Cap Friendly. Some major salary will have to go out if they’re to land Karlsson and sign him to a max extension. But given his history, it’d be hard to doubt Yzerman’s ability to make it work. The championship window remains open for the Lightning and won’t be closing any time soon.

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

How Bolts could fit Erik Karlsson under cap

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Over the last few hours, it’s been reported that the Tampa Bay Lightning were one of the favorites to land franchise defenseman Erik Karlsson from the Ottawa Senators. For that to happen, Bolts GM Steve Yzerman would have to get creative because he has to find a way to create cap space.

As of right now, the Lightning only have $3.446 million in cap space. Even if we forget about Karlsson’s extension, which would start next year, they still have to find some money to make it work. If anyone can pull this off, it’s Yzerman. He’s managed to pull rabbits out of his hat before (see this year’s trade deadline).

So, how can Yzerman make this work? There’s a few different ways. Let’s take a look.

• Find a taker for Ryan Callahan

Trading Callahan is going to be easier said than done. The 33-year-old is currently the second-highest paid forward on the team at $5.8 million per year for the next two seasons. Callahan put up five goals and 18 points in 67 games last season and he also has a long injury history. To make matters worse, he underwent shoulder surgery in late May. He’s expected to be sidelined for five months.

Still, there are teams that won’t be competitive that could take on the final two years of this contract if the Lightning make it worth their while. The Montreal Canadiens were willing to take on Steve Mason‘s contract from Winnipeg (they eventually bought him out). The Habs still have cap space. Could they be part of a deal?

The one thing the Lightning can’t do is retain salary. They’ll need money next year to pay Karlsson and Nikita Kucherov and they already have Matthew Carle’s dead money ($1.83 million) on the cap.

• Unload Dan Girardi and Brayden Coburn

These two veteran defenseman combine to make $6.7 million (Coburn earns $3.7 million, Girardi earns $3 million). It’s not like the Lightning don’t have youngsters that can step into that role right away, either. Both Slater Koekkoek and Jake Dotchin were regularly scratched at the end of last season because there was no room for them.

Yes, losing Girardi and Coburn would hurt you in the leadership department, but it’s a small sacrifice to make if they’re going to add Karlsson to their current group of defensemen.

Even if they’re forced to give up Mikhail Sergachev to the Senators, they’d still have a top four of Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Anton Stralman. That’s as good of a top four as there is in the NHL right now.

• Get Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat or Alex Killorn to waive their NTC

This all depends on what their going to give up to get Karlsson. If they have to unload a center like Brayden Point, then they’ll want to keep Johnson because he’s a natural center. If Yzerman finds a way to keep point, Johnson could become expendable.

Of course, if they wanted to trade Johnson, it would have been easier to do so before July 1st when his no-trade clause kicked in. But maybe they didn’t realize how motivated Ottawa was to trade Karlsson in the summer.

Johnson has six years remaining on his contract at a cap hit of $5 million per season, while Palat has four years left on his deal at $5.3 million. Again, either player would have to accept to be moved, which might complicate matters. Maybe either one of these players could be headed to Ottawa in the trade. They’re still both just 27 years old, so the Sens could have an interest in them.

Moving Killorn’s deal may be a little more difficult. He has five years left at $4.45 million.

• Make Senators retain salary

As if this would ever happen.

Karlsson is set to earn $6.5 million this year. Convincing the Sens to eat some of that contract would help the Lightning fit him under the cap this season, but again, it’s unlikely that the Senators will be interesting in going down that route for obvious reasons.

MORE: 

No prospect should hold up an Erik Karlsson deal

Five logical landing spots for Erik Karlsson

What would Erik Karlsson mean for Stars?

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

No prospect should hold up an Erik Karlsson trade

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Let’s play a little game.

Let’s pretend you — yes, you! — are one of the 30 general managers running an NHL team outside of Ottawa.

Out of that group of general managers, you are in charge of one of the teams that has the necessary salary cap space to acquire superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson, not only one of the best players in the NHL, but the most impactful and dominant defenseman of the modern era. Also one of the most impactful and dominant defenseman to probably ever play in the league.

You are also a team that Karlsson would have an interest in signing a long-term contract extension with, potentially keeping him on your roster for the next seven or eight years. That is a rare position to be in, and in the right situation it could help build a potential championship team. Players like Karlsson do not come around very often, and it is even rarer that you get the opportunity to actually acquire one in a trade.

When that opportunity presents itself there is one thing you should not do: Let a prospect get in the way of completing that deal.

[Related: What would Erik Karlsson mean to Stars?]

I mention this because it has been reported that the Dallas Stars, one of the apparent front-runners to acquire Karlsson in a trade, are not willing to part with defenseman Miro Heiskanen in a potential deal.

This comes after it was reported that Vegas’ unwillingness to part with 2017 first-round pick Cody Glass was one of the hold ups.

It is almost certain that every other team looking to acquire Karlsson has a prospect of their own that they are not willing to part with, essentially making them “untouchable” in trade talks. Every team has that one prospect they have high hopes and expectations for. A lot of times we — media, fans, teams — tend to overvalue that prospect.

Given the nature of a salary capped league it is understandable why prospects are so valuable. When they first hit the NHL they make peanuts compared to more established players and can provide immense value based on that — if they are as good as you hope. You do not want to trade them for just any random player. In Dallas’ case, a player like Heiskanen has immense potential and could be a foundational player for a long time if he develops as expected..

But do you know who would definitely be a foundational piece for a long time?

Erik Karlsson.

The reality is that a lot of times that prospect you are clutching on to and refusing to part with does not always turn out and develop the way you want them to. Karlsson is also not just any random player. He is a superstar. He is, when he is at his best and fully healthy, arguably one of the three best players in the NHL right now behind only Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid.

Maybe it is overstating things a bit, but there is probably a 95 percent chance that a team is still going to get more value out of Karlsson over the next seven years — even at this point in his career when he will be playing in his age 28 through 35 seasons — than any prospect in the league. Even if that prospect becomes the player you think and hope they can become. That is just how good Karlsson is. Especially if you put him on a team next to John Klingberg. Or next to Victor Hedman. Or next to anybody, really.

[Related: Five logical landing spots for Erik Karlsson]

This is not to say one of these teams should just give up their entire farm system or trade 20 pieces to get him. But if you are Jim Nill in Dallas and Pierre Dorion insists on Heiskanen being the centerpiece of a potential trade, is it smart to entirely leave him off the table and risk losing the opportunity to land a true superstar? If you are George McPhee and have a chance to give your expansion team its first superstar, a player you could still build around (especially with all of that salary cap space and the number of future draft picks you still have), how can you let Cody Glass get in the way of that? You do not trade prospects like that for some second-line center rental at the trade deadline. But when you have a chance to get an Erik Karlsson? You have to swing for the fences when you get that opportunity.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Lightning hand Ryan McDonagh giant extension

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The Tampa Bay Lightning announced a huge signing on free agent day, but it didn’t involve John Tavares.

Instead, to some surprise, the Lightning signed defenseman Ryan McDonagh to a seven-year, $47.25 million extension (which means it will be a $6.75M cap hit). The extension will kick in starting in 2019-20, as McDonagh still has a season remaining on his current deal, which only registers a $4.7M cap hit.

Here are a few additional reported details:

McDonagh turned 29 on June 13, so he’ll be 30 by the time his new contract kicks in. From that standpoint, the Lightning are taking an interesting risk. It also sheds some light on some moves that they might not make.

In the long run, GM Steve Yzerman is committing to a future that involves Victor Hedman (27, signed through 2024-25 at a $7.875M cap hit) and McDonagh on defense, with Mikhail Sergachev carrying two more years on his entry-level contract. Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, and Dan Girardi all enter contract years in 2018-19, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Lightning move on from all three (or only keep one) of those veteran blueliners.

It’s also worth noting that Yzerman has wasted little time in locking down the big pieces of the McDonagh trade from the New York Rangers. Mere days ago, the Lightning handed J.T. Miller a five-year, $26.25M contract that was also more than a bit surprising.

Time will tell if the Lightning made the right calls in locking up those former Rangers for such term, as Stevie Y & Co. still have some questions to answer. Nikita Kucherov is set for a massive raise after this season, while Brayden Point and Yanni Gourde could also become RFAs next summer. A bigger payday isn’t far away for Vezina finalist Andrei Vasilevskiy, either, as his $3.5M cap hit only runs through 2019-20.

While it sure seems like a cap crunch is coming, there’s no denying that the Lightning look like a juggernaut heading into 2018-19, even if the remainder of their moves end up being marginal. Keeping a high-end defenseman such as McDonagh in the fold highlights that point.

Do the Lightning have even more surprises waiting for the hockey world? We’ll find out soon enough.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.