Ryan Spooner

NHL Draft Lottery: What Blackhawks, Rangers gained; what Kings, Avalanche lost

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On Tuesday night 15 NHL teams had a significant part of their future come down to a couple of ping pong balls.

In the end, it was the New Jersey Devils getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft for the second time in three years, going from the third spot in the lottery up to the top spot. It is there that they will have the opportunity to select prized prospect Jack Hughes and add him to their core alongside Nico Hischier (the No. 1 overall pick two years ago) and, hopefully, Taylor Hall assuming they can work out a long-term contract extension.

It was a great night for the Devils and their fans, but they were not the only team to win big.

Others, however, lost big.

It’s not an earth-shattering revelation to point out that there is a significant difference between picking first versus picking fourth, or picking third instead of 12th. You can find good players at any pick in any round, and there are always good players available, it’s just that your odds drop dramatically with each spot.

Obviously the higher you pick in the draft, the better chance you have to land an impact player that can change the long-term outlook of your franchise.

You expect to get, at the bare minimum, a consistent All-Star with the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick. You might get a good first-or second-liner with the 10th pick. You hope to just find someone that will make the NHL and have a nice career as you get toward the bottom half of the first round and beyond.

[Related: Devils win draft lottery, will get No. 1 overall pick]

But what exactly does that look like from a numbers and production perspective, and how does that impact the big winners and losers from Tuesday night?

The Colorado Avalanche were big losers

The Avalanche entered the night with the best odds of winning the No. 1 overall pick (18.3 percent) due to the fact they have the Ottawa Senators’ top pick as a result of the 2017-18 Matt Duchene trade. It could have been a PR disaster for the Senators, especially after they passed on the opportunity to send their 2018 pick to Colorado and hang on to this pick to complete the trade. Had the Avalanche won there would have been a ton of second guessing going on in Ottawa.

But the Avalanche not only did not win the top pick, they fell as far as they could have possibly fallen and ended up with the No. 4 overall pick. That is still a great position for a playoff to be in, but it is probably not going to be as franchise-changing as it could have been.

The table below shows the past 20 players to go No. 1 and No. 4 overall, their career totals, and the average games played and total production from each slot.

Obviously this is not the most scientific way to do this, but it does at least give us a little bit of a baseline of what to expect from each spot.

Look at how big the drop off is, not only in terms of the star power each side has, but also in the overall careers. There are some outstanding players on the right side (Andrew Ladd, Ryan Johansen, Evander Kane, Seth Jones, Mitch Marner, Alex Pietrangelo) and a likely Hall of Famer (Nicklas Backstrom). There are also quite a few busts, or players that did not quite fulfill expectations.

Then look at over the left side. You have two clear busts in Patrik Stefan and Nail Yakupov, a couple of really players in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Aaron Ekblad, and Erik Johnson, an injury ravaged career in Rick Dipietro … and then every other player is either a superstar or has the potential to be one day be one. There is a massive difference in value, and we are only talking about three spots in draft position, while they are both considered prime draft picks.

This is a tough break for the Avalanche.

The Los Angeles Kings were even bigger losers, while the New York Rangers were huge winners

At least if you are an Avalanche fan you have a playoff team to watch this season, while you still have your own first-round draft pick to go with a top-four pick. That is a huge bonus and can still land you a really good young player to add to your core. Not getting the No. 1 overall pick might stink, but your team is still in a great position.

The Kings, however, had some rotten luck because this is not the way they wanted their rebuild to start.

Entering the night with the second-best odds to win the top pick, the Kings fell all the way back to the No. 5 overall pick. And if you thought the gap from No. 1 to No. 4 was big, the gap from No. 2 to No. 5 might be even bigger.

The No. 5 spot has produced some legitimately great players (Phil Kessel, Blake Wheeler, Carey Price, Thomas VanekElias Pettersson is certainly trending in that direction) and some really good ones, but other than Ryan Murray, whose career has been sabotaged by injuries, and probably Kari Lehtonen, just about every player at the No. 2 spot has had an impact career as either a top-liner or franchise player.

At No. 2 the Kings probably would have been guaranteed to get a star in either Hughes or Kaapo Kakko. They could still get a star, or at least a really good player, at No. 5, but history suggests their odds of doing so dramatically drop.

Their fall down the draft board coincided with the Rangers going from the sixth spot to the No. 2 spot, where their rebuild now gets accelerated as they will be the ones getting the opportunity to select Hughes or Kakko.

It is a huge win for them, and it all happened because of Ryan Strome‘s overtime goal against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the regular season finale. If the Rangers do not win that game, it is the Edmonton Oilers in the lottery spot that would have moved to the second pick. The Oilers, of course, traded Strome to the Rangers mid-season for Ryan Spooner.

Luck is a funny thing sometimes.

The Blackhawks were HUGE winners

The Devils were the biggest winner of the night simply because they received the No. 1 overall pick. But the Chicago Blackhawks were not far behind them, and if you wanted you could probably build a convincing argument the Blackhawks were the biggest winners just because of how much they stand to gain by going from the No. 12 pick all the way up to the No. 3 overall pick.

That is a massive jump in games, goals, points, production … everything. It should — should — help the Blackhawks land another young building block, and maybe even a potential star, to go with Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, and their core of veterans that are still around. The ping pong balls falling the way they did may have helped keep the Blackhawks’ championship window open a little bit longer in the near future.

The 2019 NHL Draft will take place at Rogers Arena in Vancouver. The first round will be held Friday, June 21. Rounds 2-7 will take place Saturday, June 22.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

 

Pro Hockey Talk’s 2019 NHL Trade Deadline Tracker

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The PHT NHL Trade Deadline Tracker is your one-stop shop for all completed deals. The 2019 NHL trade deadline is Monday, Feb. 25 at 3 p.m. ET.

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Alex Broadhurst
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Future considerations

Feb. 25, 2019
Pittsburgh Penguins:
Chris Wideman
Florida Panthers:
Jean-Sebastien Dea

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Nic Petan
Toronto Maple Leafs:
Par Lindholm

Feb. 25, 2019
Vancouver Canucks:
Linus Karlsson
San Jose Sharks:
Jonathan Dahlen

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Bogdan Kiselevich
Florida Panthers:
 2021 seventh-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Nathan Beaulieu
Buffalo Sabres:
2019 sixth-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Pittsburgh Penguins:
Erik Gudbranson
Vancouver Canucks:
Tanner Pearson

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Matt Hendricks
Minnesota Wild:
 2020 seventh-round pick

[Winners and losers of the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline]

Feb. 25, 2019
Anaheim Ducks: 2019 sixth-round pick
St. Louis Blues:
Michael Del Zotto

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Boston Bruins:
Marcus Johansson
New Jersey Devils:
2019 second-round pick, 2020 fourth-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Philadelphia Flyers:
Ryan Hartman, conditional 2020 fourth-round pick
Nashville Predators:
Wayne Simmonds

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Vegas Golden Knights: Mark Stone, Tobias Lindberg
Ottawa Senators: Erik Brannstrom, Oscar Lindberg, 2020 second-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Minnesota Wild:
Kevin Fiala
Nashville Predators:
Mikael Granlund

Feb. 25, 2019
Los Angeles Kings: Conditional 2020 fourth-round pick
Calgary Flames:
Oscar Fantenberg

Feb. 25, 2019
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Adam McQuaid
New York Rangers:
Julius Bergman, 2019 fourth-round pick, 2019 seventh-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Colorado Avalanche:
Derick Brassard, 2020 conditional sixth-round pick
Florida Panthers:
2020 third-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019
Florida Panthers:
Cliff Pu, future considerations
Carolina Hurricanes:
Tomas Jurco, future considerations

Feb. 25, 2019
Montreal Canadiens: Jordan Weal
Arizona Coyotes:
Michael Chaput

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
New York Rangers:
Brendan Lemieux, 2019 first-round pick, 2022 conditional fourth-round pick
Winnipeg Jets:
 Kevin Hayes

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
New Jersey Devils:
2022 fifth-round pick
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Keith Kinkaid

Feb. 25, 2019
Anaheim Ducks: Patrick Sieloff
Ottawa Senators:
Brian Gibbons

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
San Jose Sharks: Gustav Nyquist
Detroit Red Wings: 2019 second-round pick, 2020 conditional third-round pick

Feb. 24, 2019
Toronto Maple Leafs: Nic Baptiste
Nashville Predators: Future considerations

Feb. 24, 2019
Los Angeles Kings: Matheson Iacopelli
Blackhawks: Spencer Watson

Feb. 24, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Buffalo Sabres: Brandon Montour
Anaheim Ducks: Brendan Guhle, conditional 2019 first-round pick

Feb. 23, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Ryan Dzingel, 2019 seventh-round pick
Ottawa Senators: Anthony Duclair, 2020 second-round pick, 2021 second-round pick

Feb. 23, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Dallas Stars:
Mats Zuccarello
New York Rangers: Conditional picks – 2019 second-round pick, 2020 third-round pick. Both can become first-round picks.

Feb. 23, 2019
New Jersey Devils
: Connor Carrick, 2019 third-round pick
Dallas Stars: Ben Lovejoy

Feb. 22, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Washington Capitals: Nick Jensen, 2019 fifth-round pick
Detroit Red Wings: Madison Bowey, 2020 second-round pick

Feb. 22, 2019
Florida Panthers:
Vincent Praplan
San Jose Sharks: 
Future considerations

Feb. 22, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Columbus Blue Jackets: Matt Duchene, Julius Bergman
Ottawa Senators:
Vitaly Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, 2019 lottery-protected first-round pick, 2020 conditional first-round pick.

Feb. 21, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Washington Capitals:
Carl Hagelin
Los Angeles Kings: 2019 third-round pick, 2020 conditional sixth-round pick. LA retains 50 percent of Hagelin’s cap hit.

Feb. 20, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Boston Bruins:
Charlie Coyle
Minnesota Wild:
Ryan Donato, conditional 2019 fifth-round pick

Feb. 18, 2019
New York Rangers: Darren Raddysh
Chicago Blackhawks:
Peter Holland

Feb. 16, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Edmonton Oilers: Sam Gagner
Vancouver Canucks: 
Ryan Spooner

Feb. 15, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Philadelphia Flyers:
Cam Talbot
Edmonton Oilers:
Anthony Stolarz

Feb. 12, 2019
New York Rangers: 2020 seventh-round pick
Vancouver Canucks: 
Marek Mazanec

Feb. 11, 2019
Columbus Blue Jackets: conditional seventh-round 2019 pick
Pittsburgh Penguins: Blake Siebenaler

Feb. 11, 2019
Montreal Canadiens: Nate Thompson, 2019 fifth-round pick
Los Angeles Kings: 2019 fourth-round pick

Feb. 9, 2019 (PHT Analysis)
Philadelphia Flyers: Dave Schlemko, Byron Froese
Montreal Canadiens: Dale Weise, Christian Folin

Feb. 8, 2019
Arizona Coyotes: Emil Pettersson
Nashville Predators: Laurent Dauphin, Adam Helewka

Feb. 6, 2019
Nashville Predators:
Cody McLeod
New York Rangers:
2020 seventh-round pick

Feb. 6, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Nashville Predators
: Brian Boyle
New Jersey Devils: 2019 second-round pick

Feb. 6, 2019
Ottawa Senators: Jean-Christophe Beaudin
Colorado Avalanche: Max McCormick

Feb. 1, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Pittsburgh Penguins: Nick Bjugstad, Jared McCann
Florida Panthers: Derick Brassard, Riley Sheahan, 2019 second-round picks and two 2019 fourth-round picks

Jan. 30, 2019
New Jersey Devils
: Ryan Murphy
Minnesota Wild: Michael Kapla

Jan. 28, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Toronto Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin
Los Angeles Kings: Carl Grundstrom, Sean Durzi, 2019 first-round pick

Jan. 28, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Pittsburgh Penguins
: 2019 fourth-round pick
Dallas Stars: Jamie Oleksiak

Jan. 24, 2019
Chicago Blackhawks: Dominik Kubalik
Los Angeles Kings: 2019 fifth-round pick

Jan. 21, 2019
Minnesota Wild
: Brad Hunt, 2019 sixth-round pick
Vegas Golden Knights: 2019 conditional fifth-round pick

Jan. 17, 2019
Buffalo Sabres
: Taylor Leier
Philadelphia Flyers: Justin Bailey

Jan. 17, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Minnesota Wild
: Victor Rask
Carolina Hurricanes: Nino Niederreiter

Jan. 16, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Anaheim Ducks
: Michael Del Zotto
Vancouver Canucks: Luke Schenn, 2020 seventh-round pick

Jan. 16, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Anaheim Ducks
: Derek Grant
Pittsburgh Penguins: Joseph Blandisi

Jan. 16, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Minnesota Wild
: Pontus Aberg
Anaheim Ducks: Justin Kloos

Jan. 14, 2019
New York Rangers
: Connor Brickley
Nashville Predators: Cole Schneider

Jan. 14, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Anaheim Ducks
: Devin Shore
Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

Jan. 11, 2019
Chicago Blackhawks
: Slater Koekkoek, 2019 fifth-round pick
Tampa Bay Lightning: Jan Rutta, 2019 seventh-round pick

Jan. 11, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Arizona Coyotes: Jordan Weal
Philadelphia Flyers: 2019 sixth-round pick

Jan. 11, 2019
Ottawa Senators: Cody Goloubef
Boston Bruins: Paul Carey

Jan. 11, 2019
Ottawa Senators
: Morgan Klimchuk
Toronto Maple Leafs: Gabriel Gagne

Jan. 3, 2019
Winnipeg Jets: Jimmy Oligny
Vegas Golden Knights: Futures

Jan. 3, 2019
St. Louis Blues
: Jared Coreau
Anaheim Ducks: Futures

Jan. 2, 2019
Ottawa Senators:
Anders Nilsson, Darren Archibald
Vancouver Canucks: Mike McKenna, Tom Pyatt, 2019 sixth-round pick

Sam Gagner headed back to Oilers after trade with Canucks

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The Edmonton Oilers continued shaking up their roster by shipping Ryan Spooner to the Vancouver Canucks for Sam Gagner.

A day after moving Cam Talbot to the Philadelphia Flyers for Anthony Stolarz, the Oilers made the one-for-one swap hoping  the 29-year-old Gagner can rekindle his scoring touch from his early days in Edmonton.

Gagner spent the first seven seasons of his NHL with the Oilers where he posted five consecutive 40-point seasons to start his career and was a big contributor on the power play. He did hit 18 goals and 50 points two years ago in Columbus, but was slowly phased out after moving on to th Canucks last season. He’s only played seven games in Vancouver this season, spending most of his time on loan to the AHL Toronto Marlies where he scored 12 goals and recorded 37 points in 45 games. The team is hoping to get him to Brooklyn in time for Saturday night’s game against the Islanders.

Spooner’s travels continue as he’s now joins his third NHL team of the season. After signing a two-year deal with the New York Rangers in the summer, they then shipped him to the Oilers for Ryan Strome in November. (The Rangers retained $900K of Spooner’s salary in the deal.)

It’s one of those “change of scenery” deals we see often in the NHL. In this case, the scenery is familar for Gagner and the Oilers are hoping he can be a beneficial presence as they try to salvage the mess that is this season.

MORE: PHT NHL Trade Tracker

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

WATCH LIVE: Red Wings at Oilers

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NBCSN’s coverage of the 2018-19 NHL season continues with Tuesday’s matchup between the Detroit Red Wings and Edmonton Oilers. Coverage begins at 8 p.m. ET on NBCSN. You can watch the game online and on the NBC Sports app by clicking here.

Off the ice, it feels like there’s never a dull moment for the Edmonton Oilers.

Connor McDavid is admonishing anonymous teammates for a perceived lack of buy-in. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli continues to make … interesting moves, with Mikko Koskinen‘s extension being an eyebrow-raiser, and Ryan Spooner being a tragicomic waiver addition.

It’s almost easy to miss the actual on-ice product of a team fighting for a spot in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

[WATCH LIVE – COVERAGE BEGINS AT 8 P.M. ET – NBCSN]

The Oilers risk heading into the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak, as they fell 5-2 to the Flames on Saturday and 7-4 to the Hurricanes on Sunday.

McDavid and the Oilers face a Red Wings team that’s currently tied for last place in the NHL with 43 standings points. There’s plenty on the line, including Koskinen playing in his first game since signing that extension, so we’ll see how Edmonton responds on Tuesday.

[GAME PREVIEW]

What: Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers
Where: Rogers Place
When: Tuesday, Jan. 22, 8 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Live stream: You can watch the Red Wings-Oilers stream on NBC Sports’ live stream page and the NBC Sports app.

PROJECTED LINEUPS

RED WINGS

Tyler BertuzziDylan LarkinGustav Nyquist
Thomas VanekFrans NielsenAnthony Mantha
Darren HelmLuke GlendeningAndreas Athanasiou
Jacob De La RoseChristoffer EhnJustin Abdelkader
Niklas KronwallMike Green
Dan DeKeyserNick Jensen
Jonathan EricssonFilip Hronek

Starting goalie: Jimmy Howard

OILERS

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Jesse Puljujarvi
Jujhar KhairaLeon DraisaitlAlex Chiasson
Ryan Spooner – Colby CaveKailer Yamamoto
Milan LucicKyle BrodziakZack Kassian
Darnell NurseAdam Larsson
Kris RussellMatt Benning
Brandon ManningAlex Petrovic

Starting goalie: Mikko Koskinen

Ken Daniels (play-by-play) and Ray Ferraro (‘Inside-the-Glass’ analyst) will have the call from Rogers Place in Edmonton.

MORE: Oilers bet on Koskinen with three-year extension

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

NHL on NBCSN: Oilers believe there’s still time to change fortunes

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NBCSN’s coverage of the 2018-19 NHL season continues with Tuesday’s matchup between the Detroit Red Wings and Edmonton Oilers. Coverage begins at 8 p.m. ET on NBCSN. You can watch the game online and on the NBC Sports app by clicking here.

If you only read the headlines, you’d think that the Edmonton Oilers were heading for another spring hoping the NHL Draft Lottery balls bounce their way yet again. That may be the conclusion come April, but as of Tuesday morning they sit just three points out of a Western Conference wild card spot, which, looking how the Pacific Division is going, will be their only hope of playoff entry.

Monday was an eventful day in Edmonton with the team waiving preseason darling Ty Rattie, as well as Ryan Spooner, whom they acquired in November for Ryan Strome. Captain Connor McDavid also called on his team to be better as a critical period for the team continues ahead of the Feb. 25 trade deadline.

“We hear the boos and we hear the stuff that’s going on, but we understand the fans are frustrated,” McDavid said. “We expect better out of ourselves and they obviously expect better of us. We need to be better. … The only people that seem to believe in us are the guys in the locker room and we need to rally behind that.”

“If you don’t believe in this group and you’re in the locker room, then you need to leave. I don’t get that sense, I don’t feel that way. I think that everyone in there believes in each other and believes we’ll get it done.”

[WATCH LIVE – COVERAGE BEGINS AT 8 P.M. ET – NBCSN]

The Oilers are 14-13-2 since dismissing Todd McLellan and bringing Ken Hitchcock back out of retirement. That’s 30 out of a possible 58 points that’s kept them in the playoff mix. As general manager Peter Chiarelli surveys his trade options to try and make a push over the final 33 games of the season, he’s also working with the pressure of his job being on the line. Another playoff-spring or a first-round embarrassment will likely lead to major changes in Edmonton and another wasted year for McDavid.

Tuesday’s first-half finale against the Red Wings is an opportunity to rebound following a poor weekend that saw back-to-back losses to Calgary and Carolina by a combined score of 12-6. Their playoff hopes may just be a mirage and a true roster carving should happen, but with the pressures on Chiarelli at the moment the Oilers aren’t approaching the next few weeks that way, which could be to their detriment.

Ken Daniels (play-by-play) and Ray Ferraro (‘Inside-the-Glass’ analyst) will have the call from Rogers Place in Edmonton.

MORE: Oilers bet on Koskinen with three-year extension

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.