Ryan Murray

NHL Draft Lottery: What Blackhawks, Rangers gained; what Kings, Avalanche lost

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On Tuesday night 15 NHL teams had a significant part of their future come down to a couple of ping pong balls.

In the end, it was the New Jersey Devils getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft for the second time in three years, going from the third spot in the lottery up to the top spot. It is there that they will have the opportunity to select prized prospect Jack Hughes and add him to their core alongside Nico Hischier (the No. 1 overall pick two years ago) and, hopefully, Taylor Hall assuming they can work out a long-term contract extension.

It was a great night for the Devils and their fans, but they were not the only team to win big.

Others, however, lost big.

It’s not an earth-shattering revelation to point out that there is a significant difference between picking first versus picking fourth, or picking third instead of 12th. You can find good players at any pick in any round, and there are always good players available, it’s just that your odds drop dramatically with each spot.

Obviously the higher you pick in the draft, the better chance you have to land an impact player that can change the long-term outlook of your franchise.

You expect to get, at the bare minimum, a consistent All-Star with the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick. You might get a good first-or second-liner with the 10th pick. You hope to just find someone that will make the NHL and have a nice career as you get toward the bottom half of the first round and beyond.

[Related: Devils win draft lottery, will get No. 1 overall pick]

But what exactly does that look like from a numbers and production perspective, and how does that impact the big winners and losers from Tuesday night?

The Colorado Avalanche were big losers

The Avalanche entered the night with the best odds of winning the No. 1 overall pick (18.3 percent) due to the fact they have the Ottawa Senators’ top pick as a result of the 2017-18 Matt Duchene trade. It could have been a PR disaster for the Senators, especially after they passed on the opportunity to send their 2018 pick to Colorado and hang on to this pick to complete the trade. Had the Avalanche won there would have been a ton of second guessing going on in Ottawa.

But the Avalanche not only did not win the top pick, they fell as far as they could have possibly fallen and ended up with the No. 4 overall pick. That is still a great position for a playoff to be in, but it is probably not going to be as franchise-changing as it could have been.

The table below shows the past 20 players to go No. 1 and No. 4 overall, their career totals, and the average games played and total production from each slot.

Obviously this is not the most scientific way to do this, but it does at least give us a little bit of a baseline of what to expect from each spot.

Look at how big the drop off is, not only in terms of the star power each side has, but also in the overall careers. There are some outstanding players on the right side (Andrew Ladd, Ryan Johansen, Evander Kane, Seth Jones, Mitch Marner, Alex Pietrangelo) and a likely Hall of Famer (Nicklas Backstrom). There are also quite a few busts, or players that did not quite fulfill expectations.

Then look at over the left side. You have two clear busts in Patrik Stefan and Nail Yakupov, a couple of really players in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Aaron Ekblad, and Erik Johnson, an injury ravaged career in Rick Dipietro … and then every other player is either a superstar or has the potential to be one day be one. There is a massive difference in value, and we are only talking about three spots in draft position, while they are both considered prime draft picks.

This is a tough break for the Avalanche.

The Los Angeles Kings were even bigger losers, while the New York Rangers were huge winners

At least if you are an Avalanche fan you have a playoff team to watch this season, while you still have your own first-round draft pick to go with a top-four pick. That is a huge bonus and can still land you a really good young player to add to your core. Not getting the No. 1 overall pick might stink, but your team is still in a great position.

The Kings, however, had some rotten luck because this is not the way they wanted their rebuild to start.

Entering the night with the second-best odds to win the top pick, the Kings fell all the way back to the No. 5 overall pick. And if you thought the gap from No. 1 to No. 4 was big, the gap from No. 2 to No. 5 might be even bigger.

The No. 5 spot has produced some legitimately great players (Phil Kessel, Blake Wheeler, Carey Price, Thomas VanekElias Pettersson is certainly trending in that direction) and some really good ones, but other than Ryan Murray, whose career has been sabotaged by injuries, and probably Kari Lehtonen, just about every player at the No. 2 spot has had an impact career as either a top-liner or franchise player.

At No. 2 the Kings probably would have been guaranteed to get a star in either Hughes or Kaapo Kakko. They could still get a star, or at least a really good player, at No. 5, but history suggests their odds of doing so dramatically drop.

Their fall down the draft board coincided with the Rangers going from the sixth spot to the No. 2 spot, where their rebuild now gets accelerated as they will be the ones getting the opportunity to select Hughes or Kakko.

It is a huge win for them, and it all happened because of Ryan Strome‘s overtime goal against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the regular season finale. If the Rangers do not win that game, it is the Edmonton Oilers in the lottery spot that would have moved to the second pick. The Oilers, of course, traded Strome to the Rangers mid-season for Ryan Spooner.

Luck is a funny thing sometimes.

The Blackhawks were HUGE winners

The Devils were the biggest winner of the night simply because they received the No. 1 overall pick. But the Chicago Blackhawks were not far behind them, and if you wanted you could probably build a convincing argument the Blackhawks were the biggest winners just because of how much they stand to gain by going from the No. 12 pick all the way up to the No. 3 overall pick.

That is a massive jump in games, goals, points, production … everything. It should — should — help the Blackhawks land another young building block, and maybe even a potential star, to go with Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, and their core of veterans that are still around. The ping pong balls falling the way they did may have helped keep the Blackhawks’ championship window open a little bit longer in the near future.

The 2019 NHL Draft will take place at Rogers Arena in Vancouver. The first round will be held Friday, June 21. Rounds 2-7 will take place Saturday, June 22.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

 

Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: PHT 2019 Stanley Cup Playoff Preview

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Sometimes you can’t help but think that we’re all just writing off the Columbus Blue Jackets without one puck being dropped in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

But then you give your head a smack, recompose yourself and realize that (insert deity here) might struggle against the behemoth that the Tampa Lightning have become.

Tampa is simply that good, and the reason why the secondary race (other than making the playoffs) was to finish in the first wildcard and avoid the unstoppable force in the first round. Sure, there might be that immovable object later down the line for Tampa, but Columbus certainly isn’t it. And that’s a bit of a shame given everything Jarmo Kekalainen did to improve his team (despite giving up nearly a full draft and a couple of nice farm pieces).

You see, John Tortorella can exclaim it from the top of Mount Everest that his team is up for the challenge. One, he has to. Two, well, he has to. But even then it’s a stretch.

There are levels to this, and Tampa is one that’s two or three floors above Columbus.

I mean, we’re talking about the far-and-away best offense in the NHL this year. We’re talking about a team with top point producer, a team with three guys with 40-plus goals, and a goalie that eats shooters for breakfast and snacks on the league’s best snipers.

Columbus needed to mortgage their future and take on massive risk by not trading pending unrestricted free agents in Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky at the trade deadline.

Tampa didn’t set an alarm that day.

Oh, and Tampa won 62 games, tying for the most ever in an NHL season. They never lost more than two in a row all season, and that only happened twice itself. There might not be a taller order in sports at the moment than the one that lies before Columbus.

[NBC 2019 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB]

SCHEDULE
Wednesday, April 10, 7 p.m.: Columbus @ Tampa Bay | USA, SN360, TVAS
Friday, April 12, 7 p.m.: Columbus @ Tampa Bay | CNBC, SN360, TVAS
Sunday, April 14, 7 p.m.: Tampa Bay @ Columbus | NBCSN, SN360, TVAS
Tuesday, April 16, 7 p.m.: Tampa Bay @ Columbus | CNBC, SN360, TVAS
*Friday, April 19, TBD: Columbus @Tampa Bay | TBD
*Sunday, April 21, TBD: Tampa Bay @ Columbus | TBD
*Tuesday, April 23, TBD: Columbus @ Tampa Bay | TBD

FORWARDS

BLUE JACKETS: It seems almost unfair to compare the two.

The Blue Jackets accounted for 256 goals this season, 12th most in the NHL if you’re a glass-half-full type of person. Cam Atkinson had a lot to do with it as he tucked 41 himself. Artemi Panarin had 28, and Pierre-Luc Dubois and Josh Anderson each bagging 27 each. Oliver Bjorkstrand was fifth on the team and rounded out the 20-plus goal men with 23.

Columbus will continue to ride their top two lines (Panarin-Duchene-Atkinson and Dzingel-Dubois-Anderson) for consistent scoring, and they’ll likely have to produce even better to beat Columbus, and a lot of it may need to come five-on-five. Columbus had the 28th-ranked power play, which surprisingly isn’t the worst among playoff teams — it was better than both the New York Islanders and Nashville Predators.

LIGHTNING: Nikita. Kucherov. Say it with me now… Seriously though, Kucherov did things this season and no one had done in the salary cap era. Perhaps he felt snubbed that he didn’t get the Hart last season, and boy did he come with a vengeance. Kucherov scored 128 points to establish a new career mark, besting his previous total by 28 points in two more games played. He beat Connor McDavid by 12 points in the Art Ross race.

And we’ve only talked about one player so far

The Lightning had three players with 40-plus goals, with Kucherov and Brayden Point each scoring 41 and Steven Stamkos leading the pack with 45. Ten of their 12 forward had double-digit goals, with seven having more than 18 apiece. They led the league with 319 goals-for, 30 more than anyone else (and the only team to eclipse 300). They led the with a 12.2 percent shooting percentage. They led the league with a power play that ran at 28 percent. They just led the league. In everything that matters. It’s a brilliant offense.

ADVANTAGE: LIGHTNING. I mean, if there’s one series that this is most clear in, it’s this one. It’s the Lightning by miles upon miles. The best scorer, the best offense and the best power play. It almost seems unfair and barring something divine, the Lightning aren’t going to be held at bay.

DEFENSE

BLUE JACKETS: Seth Jones and Zach Werenski will be leaned upon heavily as they shoulder a massive task in trying to shut down Tampa. The pair are a formidable shutdown duo, for sure, but the depth starts to fall off after that.

Jones plays nearly 26 minutes a night, with Werenski at nearly 23. From there, every other defenseman on the team is under 20 minutes aside from the injured Ryan Murray.

Not having Murray stings. He’s missed the past 24 games with an upper-body injury and won’t be available for Game 1, at least. Murray had 29 points in 56 games prior to getting injured, so they’ll be missing some production back there, too.

LIGHTNING: Victor Hedman practiced on Monday and it appears he might be ready to play in Game 1 after suffering an injury on March 30, forcing him to miss the last week of action.

Hedman’s presence is crucial. His size, ability to play monster minutes and in all situations is a big key to this juggernaut of a team. But Tampa is deep, no doubt. They finished eighth in fewest goals-against and can also rely on some offensive production from their back end. If there’s a weakness, it might be in the third pairing of Mikhail Sergachev and Jan Rutta.

ADVANTAGE: LIGHTNING. They have better depth and better scoring from the back end, both things that are paramount in the playoffs.

GOALTENDING

BLUE JACKETS: This is where the series could be decided.

If Sergei Bobrovsky and play out of his mind, Columbus has a snowball’s chance in hell, which is an improvement. If struggles, shut off the lights and head home. It’s over.

Bob’s season one of the worst of his career, statistically, with a .913 save percentage — a number that was made to look respectable as he closed out the season with multiple shutouts. Those numbers just won’t cut it against an offense of Tampa’s ilk.

LIGHTNING: Vasilevskiy is in a league of his own.

Like it or not, Vasilevskiy is probably winning the Vezina this year and he’s simply an elite goaltender who got a lot more rest down the stretch than he did last year. That means a more fresh Vasilevskiy. A more sharp Vasilevskiy. A quicker Vasilevskiy. That’s a goalie that’s tough to beat.

ADVANTAGE: LIGHTNING. Vasilevskiy brings it every night and hardly has a bad day at the office. He’s comfortable taking a lot of shots and he’s not going to be facing down a great power play. And Bobrovsky is hit or miss these days. And even if he hits, can he really deal with everything the Lightning will throw at him?

ONE BIG QUESTION FOR EACH TEAM

Can the Blue Jackets outgun the Lightning?

That’s really what it will come down to here. The Blue Jackets need to take advantage of every single opportunity they’re afforded and then play defense (tight gap, high pressure) like they’ve never done before.

Can they keep the status quo?

Basically, if the regular season Lightning shows up, this one is over before it begins. The Lightning need to remain the same team in the playoffs. They have a lot of pressure on them. They’ve earned it, given their season, and now need to respond to it.

PREDICTION

LIGHTNING IN 5. It’s possible the Blue Jackets catch the Lightning daydreaming. Tampa is just too good though.

MORE PREVIEWS:
• Bruins vs. Maple Leafs
 Sharks vs. Golden Knights
Flames vs. Avalanche
Jets vs. Blues
Islanders vs. Penguins
Predators vs. Stars
Capitals vs Hurricanes


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

Babcock clears air about ‘depth’ comments, talks relationship with Dubas

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When Mike Babcock entered the NHL head coaching ranks with the Anaheim Ducks his general manager was Bryan Murray. The late GM imparted some wise words with his rookie head coach that have stuck with him 17 years later.

“As a coach and a general manager, never let anyone get in between you and if you do you’re going to be in trouble,” recalled Babcock after Friday’s practice. “That relationship is so important.”

Babcock was bringing up Murray’s advice on the heels of a week where speculation was rife that there was some brewing tension between him and Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas. The head coach’s comments earlier this week about a lack of depth on an injury-tested roster raised some eyebrows.

“All good players, let’s not kid yourself, you’re way better when you have all guys on deck,” Babcock said on Monday. “The thing about a team is you have 23 spots on it and you have a minor-league team, you’re supposed to build the best program you can to have as much depth so you don’t miss people. If you have enough, you don’t miss a beat and you just keep on going. There are other teams that have done a better job when different players are out than we have in keeping on going. That just tells you what state you’re at and you have to keep adding better players.”

That came two months after he said, “There’s no question about it: It’s not perfect, it’s what we got. It’s what was available and we’re going to make it work,” following the Maple Leafs’ acquisition of Jake Muzzin, adding another left-hand shot to their blue line.

The Maple Leafs are in a little rough patch having gone 8-7-2 in their last 17 games as they prepare for an inevitable Round 1 matchup against the Boston Bruins again. So when a team with such high-end talent and sky-high expectations falters, especially at this point in the season, the vultures are going to circle.

“Whatever people speculate or think, I don’t believe that’s the case,” said Babcock. “I know Dubie and I talk all the time, we’ve talked about this since this happened. If any of my comments in any way… I don’t read it [as others did], but if any of my comments in anyway hurt anybody… if anyone’s wife is reading it the next day, and they feel hurt, then you’ve done the wrong thing. That’s not my intent.

“One of the comments was about depth. Depth in the organization, we’ve got keep improving our depth, everybody knows it. … [W]e’re all trying to do it so that we can get to be like these teams. Tampa, to me, is just a model of what depth is. It doesn’t matter if you get guys hurt, not hurt… so if there was any slap at anyone, it sure wasn’t intended, that’s not what I meant to say.

“I go to the media, what, twice a day. Sometimes three times a day it seems like. There’s gonna be a s—-storm once in a while. There just is. You’d like to say everything perfect, and sometimes maybe you don’t.”

Babcock added that his relationship isn’t as good with Dubas “as it’s going to be four years from now,” noting that it was the same with Murray and in Detroit with Ken Holland and with Lou Lamoriello when he was hired by the Maple Leafs. This is the first season for the two in the GM/head coach relationship, so it’s going to be bumpy, especially in Toronto and especially where the team is in regards to Stanley Cup contender status.

The Maple Leafs have eight games remaining to try and catch the Bruins for home ice in Round 1. They have a relatively soft schedule over the next week and building off of Wednesday’s win over Buffalo will go a long way in pushing the distractions aside.

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

PHT Morning Skate: Business trip for Panthers; Notre Dame, Michigan going outdoors

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Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

• It might be a trip to Finland, but it’s all business for the Florida Panthers. [NHL.com]

• Dallas Stars netminder Ben Bishop is no fan of goalie analytics. “When it’s some old hockey fan that doesn’t even get the shots right on the game, how are they going to get that right? You go to every different building, and sometimes they count the dump-ins as shots on goals. Well, half the buildings don’t count those, because they don’t know the rules. When you go to some buildings, and they don’t count it, and there are four or five shots that don’t count. … That’s what’s frustrating. That’s what you get paid on. That’s your job.” [ESPN]

• The Notre Dame and Michigan men’s teams will play outdoors at Notre Dame Stadium on Jan. 5 at 3:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN. [USCHO]

• An upper-body injury will keep Vancouver Canucks forward Brandon Sutter out “weeks.” [Sportsnet]

• When it rains, it pours for the Vancouver Canucks when it comes to injuries. [The Canuck Way]

• The Erik Karlsson-Marc Edouard Vlasic pairing isn’t breaking up anytime soon for the San Jose Sharks. [Mercury News]

• The Pittsburgh Penguins had a great road trip in Western Canada. What can they take away from it? [Pensburgh]

• A look at how puck luck in the NHL affects the standings. [TSN]

• It looks like Ryan Murray is finally starting to put it together for the Columbus Blue Jackets. [1st Ohio Battery]

• “We’re finding our way, we’re finding our identity as a team.” The San Jose Sharks are coming around after a slow start. [NBC Bay Area]

• Depth scoring is needed for the Tampa Bay Lightning. [Raw Charge]

• A look at the Chicago Blackhawks as the calendar is about to turn to November. [Faxes From Uncle Dale]

Michael Rasmussen will see his development continue at the NHL level with the Detroit Red Wings. [MLive]

• Why the Boston Bruins should let Jaroslav Halak take the No. 1 goalie job for a while and allow Tuukka Rask to rest. [Black and Gold Hockey]

• Will we ever see another offer sheet signed? [Spector’s Hockey]

• “John Ziegler Did More Harm Than Good for Hockey” [Puck Junk]

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

Blue Jackets limp into season as injury sidelines Seth Jones 4-6 weeks

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Considering all of the uncertainty surrounding Blue Jackets stars Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky, it must be comforting for Columbus to at least know that they still deploy a dynamic defensive duo in Seth Jones and Zach Werenski.

Columbus was already aware that Werenski’s outlook was fuzzy. Back in May, the 21-year-old wunderkind underwent shoulder surgery. The Blue Jackets would be foolish to rush him back, but at least the latest updates seem broadly optimistic.

Worries about Jones’ health only cropped up recently, as the probable Norris candidate suffered a lower-body injury during Tuesday night’s preseason game. After John Tortorella said the defenseman will be out “a little while,” the Blue Jackets announced that he suffered a second degree MCL sprain of his right knee and will miss the next 4-6 weeks.

It’s more injury news for a team entering a big year.

While he’s not of the importance of a Jones or Werenski, 1st Ohio Battery also notes that Ryan Murray is banged-up. With Ian Cole and Jack Johnson no longer with the team (Cole being most effective, Johnson being more … drama-heavy), the Blue Jackets enter 2018-19 with a lot of uncertainty on the blueline.

Still, there’s a concern that both Werenski and Jones may deal with lingering issues. It can take a while to recover from surgery, whether it comes down to lingering soreness or merely a lack of confidence that you can avoid a re-injury. With certain lower-body injuries, a player might be able to soldier on, yet at the same time struggle through nagging discomfort. Could one or two of those great players lose that extra gear to take over games, even just for a portion of 2018-19?

Of course, both players could just shake off these concerns as if they’re nothing, continuing their dual ascents up the charts as star players.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.