Matthew Tkachuk

PHT Morning Skate: Laine off to Switzerland; Who will play with Crosby?

By Joey AlfieriSep 16, 2019, 8:15 AM EDT

Could Marner signing open floodgates for Laine, other star RFAs?

Getty Images

By James O'BrienSep 13, 2019, 8:45 PM EDT

As people anxiously awaited the RFA logjam to finally collapse, the belief was that the dominoes might start to fall whenever Mitch Marner signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs — at least if that impasse would clear up before the season.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Maple Leafs signed Marner for a hefty sum just as training camps began (Friday, to be exact), so now we must wonder if Patrik Laine, Mikko Rantanen, Brayden Point, Kyle Connor, and other key RFAs will start following like dominoes.

We’ve already enjoyed a taste of that with RFA defensemen. The Blue Jackets really got things rolling with a bridge for Zach Werenski, while the Flyers locked up Ivan Provorov long-term and the Jets got a proactive extension done with Josh Morrissey.

Of course, every situation is different. The Bruins haven’t inked Charlie McAvoy yet, for instance. With that in mind, let’s enjoy a quick refresher on some of the most important RFA situations that may speed up now that Marner got paid.

[MORE: Maple Leafs sign Mitch Marner to big six-year deal]

Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor

Cap Friendly estimates the Jets’ cap room at about $15.45M, and even if Laine and Connor ask for less than Marner’s reported $10.893M, it’s tough to imagine them combining for less than $16M. Perhaps Winnipeg will gain newfound momentum to move a contract, such as Mathieu Perreault ($4.125M AAV for two more seasons)?

TSN’s Frank Seravalli details why the Jets have extra incentive to sort out the Connor and Laine situations before the regular season begins. Winnipeg’s already faced a tough offseason, but this can’t be easy. Maybe Kevin Cheveldayoff could turn lemons to lemonade by convincing both to come in at a reasonable cap hit, though?

Brayden Point

Entering the summer, it seemed like Point joined Mitch Marner as one of the most logical offer sheet targets, being that, like Toronto, Tampa Bay already has a lot of commitments to big-name, big-money players.

Of course, the Lightning also have those Florida tax breaks, that Florida climate, and a heck of a roster (playoff sweep or not), so the rumor is that Point brushed off any offer sheet interest quickly, and may be the latest Bolt to take less money than he’s truly worth.

Still … you wonder if Tampa Bay might want to take this down a notch or five.

Now let’s see how the Marner contract impacts other negotiations. It’s believed Tampa’s last offer to Brayden Point was around three years and $5.7 M AAV… both sides far apart.

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) September 14, 2019

Cap Friendly estimates Tampa Bay’s cap room at a bit less than $8.5M.

Mikko Rantanen

Frankly, there are quite a few analyses that put Point and Rantanen in Marner’s neighborhood.

In both Point’s case and that of Rantanen, their respective teams have one argument that the Maple Leafs lacked with Auston Matthews and John Tavares: “Hey, you can’t make more/too much more than Star Teammate X!”

Elliotte Friedman made a point along those lines regarding Rantanen versus Nathan MacKinnon, stating that the Avalanche would rather Rantanen not make $4M more than MacKinnon’s insultingly low $6.3M. The thing is, Colorado has about $15.6M in cap space, so Rantanen could certainly argue for about $4M more than MacKinnon, especially since that would still be less than Marner’s $10.893M.

Matthew Tkachuk

Tkachuk is a rung or two lower on the ladder than some of these bigger stars (he’s probably there with Connor, but we’ll see come negotiating time), but he still might want more than Calgary’s estimated $7M-ish in space. That could be a decent neighborhood for a compromise, however, as Johnny Gaudreau carries a $6.75M AAV.

Brock Boeser

With the Roberto Luongo weirdness costing them for about $3M and expensive additions like J.T. Miller and Tyler Myers, the Canucks only have about $4.1M in cap space. That could get … awkward, huh?

Travis Konency

Considering the money Chuck Fletcher threw around in making over the Flyers, you’d think Konency would want his piece of the pie. It’s not as high stakes as situations like Laine, but getting good value is crucial in this league. Cap Friendly puts Philly’s cap space at about $6.67M.

There are some other names floating out there, but the above situations are the biggest. Feel free to discuss players like Andrew Mangiapane in the comments.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

—

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Blue Jackets’ Pierre-Luc Dubois on verge of huge season

Getty

By Adam GretzAug 9, 2019, 2:38 PM EDT

1 Comment

Each day in the month of August we’ll be examining a different NHL team — from looking back at last season to discussing a player under pressure to identifying X-factors to asking questions about the future. Today we look at the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The Columbus Blue Jackets raised some eyebrows at the top of the 2016 draft when they used the No. 3 overall pick to select Pierre-Luc Dubois, passing on winger Jesse Puljujarvi. It was a bit of a surprise because Puljujarvi was viewed as the consensus pick at that spot and was one of the big three in that class alongside Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine (even if the other two were a notch ahead of him).

So far, it is looking as if the Blue Jackets were correct in their assessment to select Dubois.

While Puljujarvi has been mishandled by the Edmonton Oilers and not yet established himself as an NHL regular, Dubois has quickly started to emerge as one of the top players on the Blue Jackets and a significant part of the team’s long-term core.

In his first two years in the NHL he has played in every single game while showing consistent improvement across the board offensively, already producing at a top-line level.

Based on what he has already produced there is reason to believe he could be on the verge of a monster season in 2019-20 for the Blue Jackets. How high is the ceiling for him this season? Let’s try to take a look.

[More: 2018-19 In Review | Under Pressure | Three Questions]

The table below looks at recent players with a similar start to their NHL careers and what they produced in year three. The criteria: Forwards since the start of the 2007-08 season that played their first two years in the NHL at ages 19 and 20, while also averaging at least 0.25 goals per game, 0.65 points per game, and a 51 percent Corsi percentage — all marks that Dubois has hit so far in his career.

It is a promising list of comparable players if you are Dubois and the Blue Jackets.

A couple things to consider here.

First is that the previous players in this group scored, on average, at a 31-goal, 81-point pace over 82 games, while only one player (Nylander) failed to scored at least 26 goals. Those are huge numbers.

If you wanted to look for a reason to lower you expectations for Dubois it might be that his per-game averages over the first two years are at the low-end of this group. While that is true, his year two performance was right in line with everyone else (0.33 goals per game, 0.74 points per game). The player whose path he most closely resembles is probably Calgary’s Matthew Tkachuk whose career and development skyrocketed this past season for the Flames.

Obviously there are no guarantees in professional sports, so Dubois still has to actually do it. But recent history suggests that players that have performed at the level he has demonstrated at this stage of his developmemt go on to become All-Star level players. If you are good enough to perform like that in your first two seasons, it is usually a strong sign that you are going to be good enough to keep getting better.

Given how much offense the Blue Jackets have lost this offseason they are going to need this sort of step from their best young forward.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

—

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Treliving needs to continue pushing right buttons for Flames

Getty

By Joey AlfieriAug 5, 2019, 10:17 AM EDT

1 Comment

Since taking over as general manager of the Flames in 2014, Brad Treliving has done a reasonably good job. His team hasn’t made the playoffs every year under his watch, but he managed to build a team that won the Pacific Division and the Western Conference last year.

Unfortunately for Calgary, they flamed out (sorry!) of the playoffs in the first round last spring. Now, the challenge for Treliving is to find a way for him to get even more out of his roster. Given the team’s cap situation, it was difficult for him to go out and really make this team better on paper. For the most part, the core you saw last year is the core they’ll roll with in 2019-20.

Unlike last year, everybody will see the Flames coming this time around. Again, they were the class of the Western Conference during the regular season, so the rest of the league knows what they’re capable of. It’s not like we didn’t know Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk and Mark Giordano were great players, but this was a team that missed the postseason by 11 points in 2018. They exceeded the pre-season expectations.

[MORE: 2018-19 review | 3 Questions |Talbot the X-Factor]

Now, it’s up to Treliving to continue pressing all the right buttons in order for this team to progress to the next level. He added Milan Lucic and Cam Talbot to the roster, but his work isn’t over just yet. In order for the Flames to be the class of the West, he’ll have to make sure he gets Tkachuk under contract. The restricted free agent had 77 points in 80 games and he brings that physical element that’s so key in the Western Conference.

“What we’ve tried to do a little bit this summer and even going into last year was the introduction of a lot of young players over the last year,” Treliving said, per NHL.com. “We think we’ve got some good young players here. A lot of them got their feet wet last year, and we’re looking for them to continue to grow.

“There’s young players that we feel still have room to grow. The bulk of our team is still a fairly young group. We want to give them the opportunity to continue to grab and grow their role.”

Treliving is right. His team is still young. The core forwards are all 25 or younger, so there’s room for them to grow but this is an important year for the entire team. In order for them to take the next step, Treliving will have to improve this roster throughout the season. The Flames have all their own draft picks except their fourth-rounder, which means they’ll have the ammo to make a significant deal during the season/before the trade deadline.

Can he add the right pieces as the season progresses?

The Flames’ biggest question mark is still between the pipes. Last year, the duo of David Rittich and Mike Smith helped the team collect 107 points. Now, Smith is gone and they replaced him with Cam Talbot. Is a Talbot-Rittich duo better than what they had last year? That’s very debatable. But we’ll find out soon enough.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

—

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

It’s Calgary Flames Day at PHT

By Joey AlfieriAug 5, 2019, 9:10 AM EDT

1 Comment

2018-19
50-25-7, 107 points (1st in Pacific Division, 1st in Western Conference)
Playoffs: Lost in the first round to Colorado in five games

IN
Milan Lucic
Brandon Davidson
Cam Talbot

OUT
Michael Stone
James Neal
Mike Smith
Curtis Lazar

RE-SIGNED
David Rittich
Sam Bennett
Rinat Valiev

2018-19 Season Summary

After not making the playoffs by 11 points in 2018, the Calgary Flames decided it was time to make some changes. They fired Glen Gulutzen and named Bill Peters as their head coach. After landing Peters, they decided to make a blockbuster deal with his old team, the Carolina Hurricanes. Calgary ended up getting Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin and the move ended up making a world of a difference. Lindholm was one of five Calgary Flames to collect at least 74 points in 2018-19, while Hanifin ended up averaging almost 21 minutes of ice time.

The added firepower and the solid group of players that were already on the roster combined to give the Flames a lethal team. Not only did they win the Pacific Division, they also finished in top spot in the Western Conference. That’s a pretty significant turnaround in just one year.

Johnny Gaudreau led the way with 99 points while Sean Monahan (82 points), Lindholm (78 points), Matthew Tkachuk (77 points) and Mark Giordano (74 points) helped make the Flames a dynamic attacking team.

The only clear weakness on the roster was between the pipes. Smith and Rittich held their own for most of the year, so that wasn’t really an issue between October and early April.

As you’d imagine, expectations were high in Calgary heading into the playoffs. Their first-round opponent, the Colorado Avalanche, were never going to be an easy out, but no one could’ve predicted how quickly the Flames’ Stanley Cup hopes would be extinguished.

Nothing went right for the playoffs for the Flames. Gaudreau couldn’t put the puck in the net, Mike Smith wasn’t coming up with key saves, and other contributors like Lindholm and Monahan just couldn’t create the same amount of offense they did during the regular season. It was bad. Calgary went down in five games and the joy of a great regular season quickly faded.

All the optimism surrounding the team for most of the year was gone. Brad Treliving went from GM genius to needing to find solutions in a hurry. He made some bold moves this off-season but it’s difficult to say if this edition of the team is better than the one that took to the ice last season.

[MORE: Under Pressure: Treliving | 3 Questions| Talbot the X-Factor]

They swapped Mike Smith for Cam Talbot. So they got younger in goal but the tandem of Talbot and Rittich will still have some question marks heading into the season. They sent free-agent flop James Neal to Edmonton for the ageless wonder, Milan Lucic, but that’s not a move that will make them better or worse.

The biggest question mark heading into the season is whether or not they will get Tkachuk signed to a new contract. The restricted free agent racked up a significant amount of points last year but his contributions are even more significant than that. He brings a level of physicality, nastiness and heart to the ice every game. The Flames will be missing a huge piece of their squad if this contract stalemate doesn’t get resolved before the start of the season.

Have the young veterans on this club learned from last year’s playoff disappointment? We’ll find out soon enough, but there’s no denying that this team is talented enough to do some damage in the Western Conference.

MORE:
• ProHockeyTalk’s 2019 NHL free agency tracker
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

—

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.