Jonathan Quick

Stunning numbers from first month of NHL season

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During the 2019-20 NHL season we will take an occasional look at some stunning numbers from around the league. Here is what stood out to us throughout the month of October. 

Carrying the offense, Edmonton edition: Let’s start with Edmonton’s insanely dominant duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl because right now there is nobody — NOBODY — in the NHL better than them.

Not only are they both among the top-five point producers in the league individually (again), they have (again) completely driven almost all of the offense for the Oilers. And when I say “all” that is not meant to be an exaggeration. There is almost no offense in Edmonton when these players are not on the ice. So far this season the Oilers have scored 42 goals. At least one of McDavid or Draisaitl has been on the ice for 33 of those goals, while they have both been on the ice for 31 of them. That means one of them has been on the ice for 79 percent of the team’s goals, while at least one of them has scored or assisted on every one of those goals they have been on the ice for. This is somehow even more top-heavy than last year’s team.

On this same date last year One of McDavid or Draisaitl was on the ice for 75 percent of the team’s goals, while one of them scored or assisted on “only” 68 percent of them.

Carrying the offense, Boston edition: The Bruins have their own dominant top line with David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and Patrice Bergeron carrying their offense. The Pastrnak-Marchand duo is the big one here, having been on the ice for 28 of Boston’s 42 goals (66 percent) while at least one of them has scored or assisted on every goal with them on the ice.

Carlson’s start among the all-time best: With 23 points in the Capitals’ first 14 games John Carlson is off to one of the best offensive starts we have ever seen from a defensemen. Since the start of the 1979-80 season the only defenders with more points through their team’s first 14 games are Al MacInnis (27 in 1990-91) and Paul Coffey (24 in 1988-89). He is one of just 12 player to have at least 20 points through their team’s first 14 games, with the other 11 all doing it between 1980 and 1991 when the league was a goal-scorer’s dream.

No puck luck for Simmonds, Barrie: Toronto’s Tyson Barrie and New Jersey’s Wayne Simmonds currently hold the league for “most shots without scoring a goal.” Entering play on Friday Barrie has put 36 shots on goal without scoring, while Simmonds is still searching for his first goal after 34 shots for the Devils. No other player in the league has more than 28 shots without a goal, while Simmonds is the only forward with more than 25 without a goal.

Jonathan Quick‘s struggles are concerning: He is tied for the league lead in goals against with 36 entering Friday alongside Sergei Bobrovsky and David Rittich. For as much as the other two have struggled they have played in 11 and 12 games respectively. Quick has given up his 36 goals in only eight games. He has played 100 fewer minutes than Bobrovsky and more than 250 fewer minutes than Rittich.

Still the power play specialist: Buffalo’s Victor Olofsson still has one of the league’s most bizarre stat lines through the early part of his career, having scored eight goals in the first 19 games of his career (including six in 13 games this season). Every single one of those goals has come on the power play. Zero even-strength goals.

A very one-sided trade: Let’s check in on that James Neal for Milan Lucic swap. Neal has scored 12 goals in 14 games for the  Oilers. Lucic has zero goals and 18 shots on goal in 15 games for the Flames.

No lead is safe in New Jersey: Expectations were high for the Devils after a massive offseason, but with just two wins in their first 10 games they have been a pretty big disappointment. Things might be different if they could actually finish a game. Four of their losses this season have come in games where they held a two-goal lead at some point in the game, including a couple of third period leads. They can start the game, they just can not finish it.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

 

PHT Morning Skate: On Josi’s contract; Kings’ contracts and Quick

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Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

• Why Roman Josi’s eight-year extension will be like a fine wine and get better with age. [A to Z Sports Nashville]

Bobby Ryan, unlike Roberto Luongo back in the day, doesn’t think his contract “sucks”: “I think my contract is OK. It works for me. Everybody’s got agents. They did their job. You can laugh about it all you want. Everything gets magnified because of it and I understand that. And have I lived up to it? At portions of the contract, yes. At portions of the contract, absolutely not. And I understand what comes with that.” [Ottawa Citizen]

• How do the large contracts for Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar fit into the Kings’ rebuild? [TSN]

• Can Jonathan Quick fix the issues he’s dealing with? [ESPN]

• With Vladimir Tarasenko out five months, the Blues are better off avoiding making a trade to fill that hole in the lineup. [Bleedin’ Blue]

• How the trade to the Canadiens reignited Max Domi’s passion for hockey. [Sportsnet]

• Dainius Zubrus on how hockey in Lithuania is improving. [IIHF]

• The Penguins’ top line of Dominik Simon, Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel is working. [Pensburgh]

• A good read about Crosby surprising a young fan from Ireland who battles Duchenne muscular dystrophy. [Penguins]

• Hockey Hall of Famer Ray Bourque talks Bruins-Rangers, his biggest NHL regret and more. [Sporting News]

Kevin Shattenkirk’s start with the Lightning shows poor asset management by the Rangers. [Blueshirt Banter]

• On offensive defensemen and killing penalties. [RotoWorld]

• How Ken Holland landed in a good situation with the Oilers. [Freep]

• Looking back at how Carey Price and Marc-Andre Fleury began their careers, Carter Hart’s early struggles are nothing to worry about. [The Hockey News]

• It’s getting late early for the Sharks. [NBC Sports Bay Area]

• How the NHL and its corporate partners work together to pull off big events like the annual outdoor games. [Forbes]

• The goaltending issue is getting better for the Devils, but it will remain a problem. [All About the Jersey]

• Finally, the trade was one for one:

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

How worried should Panthers be about Bobrovsky’s bad start?

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After a summer full of splashy spending, the Florida Panthers find themselves in the murky middle, with a strange (and frustrating) record of 5-3-4.

For a franchise ranked only 14th in shootout wins (68) despite leading the league in shootouts since the format began in 2005-06 (162, losing 94, 10 more shootout losses than any other team), seeing four in that last category has to be frustrating.

But, really, the Panthers should probably find relief in the fact that, if the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs began before Wednesday’s games, they’d be the second wild-card team. That’s an accomplishment because, frankly, it’s been a terrible start for their $10 million goalie Sergei Bobrovsky.

What’s this about, Bob?

You don’t have to dig too deep to see how rocky the start has been for “Bob.” It’s remarkable that he’s managed even a mediocre 4-2-3 record considering an abysmal .870 save percentage.

Things don’t get a lot better when you look at deeper stats. While discussing the hottest goalie starts to 2019-20, PHT frequently pointed to GSAA (goals saved above average), a metric that attempts to compare how a goalie performs compared to other goalies facing similar chances and situations. The flipside to over-performing goalies in that stat is goalies who’ve seemingly underachieved, and things look glum for Bobrovsky there.

By Hockey Reference’s standards, Bobrovsky’s GSAA is -9.71, the second-worst mark in the NHL behind only free-falling Kings goalie Jonathan Quick (-12.13). Things don’t really get better based on Emmanuel Perry’s measurements at Corsica Hockey, and you can see that Bob falls low on this Hockey Viz graph as well.

Less than half of Bobrovsky’s starts (.444 percent) are considered “quality starts,” according to Hockey Reference. Looking at Bob’s game logs, he’s been at or above a .914 save percentage in four appearances, and at .878 or below (sometimes drastically below) during his other six with Florida so far.

It’s important to remember that this is a small sample size, and it’s not as though Bob hasn’t managed the occasional wonderful save:

… But yes, it’s been a rough start.

Bumpy beginner?

It’s fair to wonder if Bobrovsky is simply one of those goalies who gets off to slow starts, like a bear making a big yawn (do bears yawn?) after hibernating through the winter.

Looking at Bobrovsky’s career split stats, you could advance an argument, scientific or not. During his career in October, his save percentage has been on average .903 (or .908 if you take out the disastrous month of October 2019), which would be his worse average of any month, though he’s struggled a bit in Februaries (.909).

If Bob’s past patterns hold, November could present a big turnaround, as that month is his second strongest (.924 career average, March is the highest at .933, and is the largest sample with 97GP).

Bobrovsky certainly got off to a slow start in 2018-19, with a .904 save percentage before the All-Star Break and then a .924 mark afterward. The Panthers have to hope that November wakeup call happens.

Nature vs. nurture

So, how much of Bob’s bad start is on him, and how much of this comes down to Florida struggling?

Looking at team numbers at Natural Stat Trick, we can see that the Panthers have been a strong team in puck possession measures like Corsi and Fenwick, along with simpler stats like shots and scoring chances for.

… But there’s a catch.

The Panthers have allowed almost 10 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes (9.97) while creating a bit less than eight of their own (7.94). Generating only 44.32 of the high-danger chances in their games makes for the fourth-worst discrepancy in the NHL.

More specifically to Bobrovsky, he’s faced 55 high-danger shots (or 5.5 per night) at five-on-five, giving him a troubling save percentage of .745 in those situations. Natural Stat Trick’s various stats indicate that he’s struggling relative to what other goalies might be expected to produce in those scenarios.

It’s not all bad for the Panthers defense, as they’ve seemed to keep rush attempts under reasonable control, yet the bigger picture makes it clear that they could probably do more to insulate their struggling, big-money puckstopper.

***

The most important thing to realize is that it’s early.

Bobrovsky is on a new team, in a new city, and that new team is adjusting to a new system being installed by a new coach.

He’s also had a history of slow starts followed by hot streaks. The big picture of Bobrovsky’s career is elite more often than not.

Of course, patience will only last so long, especially at Bob’s price tag. The Panthers face the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday, so if Bobrovsky’s the starter, he could get another chance to prove himself in mere hours.

MORE:
• Pro Hockey Talk’s Stanley Cup picks.
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

NHL on NBCSN: Shattenkirk finds perfect fit in new role with Lightning

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NBCSN’s coverage of the 2019-20 NHL season continues with Tuesday’s matchup between the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning. Coverage begins at 6:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN. You can watch the game online and on the NBC Sports app by clicking here.

There were four days between the Rangers buying out the final two years of Kevin Shattenkirk’s contract and the Lightning signing the 30-year-old defenseman to a one-year deal. Despite how swift his fortunes changed, there was a period of anger and frustration at not being able to make the “hometown boy returns” story work out.

Shattenkirk hails from New Rochelle, N.Y., which is about 20 miles outside of New York City. When he became an unrestricted free agent in 2017, it was clear that the Rangers would be atop his preferred destinations list. He would sign a four-year, $26.6 million deal to head home, but nothing went right during his two-season stop in the Big Apple.

During training camp in 2017 Shattenkirk suffered a meniscus tear in his left knee, an injury that would bother him during his entire tenure in New York. He played only 46 games in 2017-18, with surgery ending his season that January. Last season he managed to get into 73 games, but it was clear he wasn’t himself. He scored only two goals and recorded 28 points and was healthy scratched while trying to fight through the knee issue.

When the Rangers made the buyout official on August 1, he felt plenty of emotions.

“On a personal level, for not being able to make it work from my end, and when a team makes that decision you want to prove them wrong,” Shattenkirk told NBC Sports on Monday. 

Shattenkirk was at a low point and began to question himself. But then the phone started to ring. Considering he’d been bought out, a team looking to add to its blue line wouldn’t need to shell out major bucks to sign him, and would be banking on a bounce-back season from the now-healthy defenseman. It was a rollercoaster few days, but the interest level from other NHL teams helped restore his confidence.

“All of a sudden you start to realize that there are a lot of teams out there that could use you and may value you,” he said. “In my mind, it was something I was able to move through pretty quickly and it allowed me to focus on the season again. I was pretty driven this summer to have a big bounce-back season regardless of where I was. I think being able to know I was coming to Tampa and being on this calibre of a team, I wanted to make sure I was ready to go when the time training camp started.”

The knee injury is in the past now and the results show it. Shattenkirk, who’s been mostly paired with Victor Hedman, is third on the Lightning in minutes played, averaging 20:30 a night, and he’s tied for fourth on the team in points with seven, which includes four goals. The pressures of having to perform in your hometown or having to play like a No. 1 defenseman and produce on a regular basis is absent now in Tampa.

“There’s a lot of guys who are above me in that role and it just allows me to fit in to my role perfectly,” he said. “It’s been comforting, it’s been nice to be here. Great group of guys, great fans, and I think they all appreciate for what I bring to the table. It’s up to me to not try to be more than they need me to be.”

Shattenkirk spent this past summer training in Connecticut with Ben Prentiss, who has worked with NHLers James van Riemsdyk, Jonathan Quick, Cam Atkinson, Charlie McAvoy, and Jack Eichel, among many others. He also focused on edge work in his skating with skills coach Erik Nates, whom Shattenkirk has used in the past.

“When you have an injury like [my knee], you tend to overcompensate and you don’t realize you’re losing a lot in your stride,” he said. “I had a lot of bad habits in there I needed to break. It helped me out tremendously.”

A healthy Shattenkirk returns to New York City Tuesday night for the first time as a member of the Lightning. Because Tampa’s games this week are at the Rangers, Devils, and Islanders, family and friends in the area won’t descend upon one specific game, they’ll instead spread out among the three, and others will be watching from Mustang Harry’s, a sports bar not far from Madison Square Garden.

It remains to be seen what kind of salute the Rangers have in store for Shattenkirk. The defenseman said he wasn’t sure what kind of reception he would receive from the Garden faithful, but knowing the area as well as he does, he’s ready for anything.

“I had a great time playing there. They were very supportive of me and obviously knowing what I was going through,” he said. “But it’s New York, and if you don’t perform in New York they have something to say about it. I’m sure there’ll be a couple of boo birds out [Tuesday] night, but that’s New York, and that’s something I’m accustomed to growing up there and being a New York fan. In a way, it’ll probably make me laugh a little bit on the inside, but that’s how you’ve got to approach it and we’ll see how it goes.”

Brendan Burke and Pierre McGuire will call Lightning-Rangers from Madison Square Garden in New York, N.Y. Paul Burmeister will anchor tonight’s studio coverage with Jeremy Roenick and Patrick Sharp.

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

Sharks’ goaltending gamble isn’t paying off

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The San Jose Sharks had a major goaltending problem during 2018-19 season.

It was clearly the biggest Achilles Heel on an otherwise great team, and it was a testament to the dominance of the team itself that they were able to win as many games as they did and reach the Western Conference Final with a level of goaltending that typically sinks other teams.

Even with the struggles of Martin Jones and Aaron Dell, the Sharks remained committed to the duo through the trade deadline and were ready to roll into the Stanley Cup Playoffs with them as the last line of defense. And while their play itself may not have been the biggest reason their playoff run came to an end against the St. Louis Blues, it still was not good enough and was going to be a huge question mark going into the 2019-20 season.

Instead of doing anything to address the position in the offseason, the Sharks gambled that Jones and Dell could bounce-back and entered this season with the same goaltending duo in place that finished near the bottom of the league a year ago.

So far, the results for the two goalies are nearly identical to what they were a year ago. And with the team around them not playing well enough to mask the flaws they are taking a huge hit in the standings with just four wins in their first 12 games.

As of Monday the Sharks have the league’s fifth-worst all situations save percentage and the second-worst 5-on-5 save percentage (only the Los Angeles Kings are worse in that category), while neither Jones or Dell has an individual mark better than .892. In seven starts Jones has topped a .900 save percentage just twice, and has been at .886 or worse in every other start. Dell has not really been any better. Say what you want about team defense, or structure, or system, or the players around them, it is awfully difficult to compete in the NHL when your goalies are giving up that many goals on a regular basis.

Sometimes you need a save, even if there is a breakdown somewhere else on the ice, and the Sharks haven’t been consistently getting them for more than a year now. Going back to the start of last season, there have been 52 goalies that have appeared in at least 30 games — Jones and Dell rank 48th and 51st respectively in save percentage during that stretch. The other goalies in the bottom-10 are Mike Smith, Roberto Luongo, Cory Schneider, Cam Ward, Joonas Korpisalo, Cam Talbot, Keith Kinkaid, and Jonathan Quick. Two of those goalies (Luongo and Ward) are now retired, another (Kinkaid) is a backup, two others (Talbot and Korpisalo) are in platoon roles, while Smith, Schneider, and Quick have simply been three of the league’s worst regular starters. Not an ideal goaltending situation for a Stanley Cup contender to be in.

When it comes to Jones it is at least somewhat understandable as to why the Sharks may have been so willing to stick by him. For as tough as his 2018-19 performance was, it looked to be a pretty clear outlier in an otherwise solid career. He may have never been one of the league’s elite goalies, but he had given them at least three consecutive years of strong play with some random playoff brilliance thrown in. They also have a pretty significant financial commitment to him as he is under contract for another four years after this one. So far, though, there is little evidence to suggest such a bounce-back is on the horizon.

It’s enough to wonder if the Sharks will be as patient with their goalies as they were a year ago and what over moves could be made. Make no mistake, this is a team that is built to win the Stanley Cup right now and one that is still trying to capitalize on the window it has with its core of All-Stars. A bad start should not do anything to change that ultimate goal because there is still a championship caliber core here. And while not every team is capable of an in-season turnaround like the one the Blues experienced a year ago, the Sharks are one that could theoretically do it if their goaltending performance significantly changes for the better. But that might require some kind of move from outside the organization if the returning duo does not soon start showing some sort of progress.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.