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Long-term outlook for the Winnipeg Jets

By James O'BrienApr 30, 2020, 5:44 PM EDT

With the 2019-20 NHL season on hold we are going to review where each NHL team stands at this moment until the season resumes. Here we take a look at the long-term outlook for the Winnipeg Jets.

Pending Free Agents

The Core

With the exception of Patrik Laine — who they could theoretically extend during the offseason – the Jets locked down most of their core over the years.

Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck possess two of the “shorter” long-term contracts among that core group, and their affordable contracts run through 2023-24. (Blake Wheeler‘s does, as well, but that’s a little more troubling being that the often-underrated winger is now 33.)

Beyond that Wheeler worry, there’s a lot to like, especially since Wheeler is comfortably the highest paid at $8.25M AAV.

(Actually, Bryan Little‘s contract was troubling from day one, but sadly, he might go on LTIR quite credibly.)

If Kevin Cheveldayoff can extend Laine at a reasonable price, this group could be cost-conscious enough for Winnipeg to even take advantage of other teams possibly facing cap squeezes. It makes me wonder: could the Jets go after another core piece in free agency? Signing, say, Alex Pietrangelo would make them stronger and weaken Central Division rival St. Louis.

Even as a “budget” team, the possibilities are intriguing for the Jets to improve upon their long-term core. That said, improvements might be needed for the Jets to truly soar.

Long-term needs for Jets

It’s remarkable that Hellebuyck (and some star scorers) dragged Winnipeg to playoff contention, because that group was rough this season.

Neal Pionk turned out to be an extremely pleasant surprise, to the point that he might be able to join the core to an extent. And, for sure, Josh Morrissey is a steady presence. But things dry up quite a bit beyond that, and an ideal contender probably would ask less of both of them, particularly Morrissey.

So, can Ville Heinola eventually be a key defender? How will Sami Niku’s development go?

Getting steps in development, overall, is a long-term key for the Jets. Jack Roslovic strikes me as someone who can do more, but he needs opportunities. What, exactly, is Laine’s ceiling? Will the Jets actually boost him up to reach it?

The Jets have to hope that they can mitigate the eventual drop-off for Wheeler, who’s already sinking a bit at 33. (By his standards.)

They could also use some more depth. It’s probably not a coincidence that, year after year (Paul Stastny to Kevin Hayes to even Cody Eakin), they seem to need to burn assets to add 2C and/or 3C help. Laurent Brossoit had a tough season, casting some doubt on the backup position.

I’ll also endlessly wonder if Paul Maurice is all that far above your average coach. But, hey, give the dude credit for being a long-term bench presence even with … meh results more often than not.

Long-term strengths for Jets

The sheer youth of this team is something to get excited about. Laine just turned 22. Kyle Connor seems to be jumping another level at 23, while Nikolaj Ehlers is a transition menace at 24. Hellebuyck is 26, Mark Scheifele is only 27, and Morrissey is 25.

I mentioned possibly pitching a deal at Pietrangelo because the Jets see a lot of space opening up.

Losing Dustin Byfuglien hurts, but his age was making his contract risky anyway. The Jets signing Kulikov furrowed my brow, yet now they can use that money toward … uh, someone good? (Sorry, Kulikov.)

It’s not always easy to lure free agents to Winnipeg, but a) they’ve become a consistent winner and b) might be one of the only winners with cash to burn during the uncertain, upcoming offseason.

That mixture of prime-age talent, solid maneuverability, and a steady-and-solid front office should put the Jets in a solid position to compete for some time. They do need Cheveldayoff to make the right moves to get back at a high level again, as Hellebuyck camouflaged a steep decline — one that quietly brewed even toward the end of 2018-19.

MORE ON THE JETS:

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Looking at the 2019-20 Winnipeg Jets

By Sean LeahyApr 30, 2020, 10:00 AM EDT

With the 2019-20 NHL season on hold we are going to take a look at where each NHL team stands at this moment with a series of posts examining their season. Have they met expectations? Exceeded expectations? Who has been the surprise? All of that and more. Today we look at the Winnipeg Jets.

Record: 37-28-6 (71 games), fourth in the Central Division, sixth in the Western Conference.
Leading Scorer: Tie between Kyle Connor (38 goals, 73 points) and Mark Scheifele (29 goals, 73 points)

In-Season Roster Moves
• Claimed Luca Sbisa off waivers from Ducks.
• Claimed Nick Shore off waivers from Maple Leafs.
• Acquired Dylan DeMelo from Senators for a 2020 third-round pick.
• Acquired Cody Eakin from Golden Knights for 2021 conditional fourth-round pick.
• Reached agreement to mutually terminate Dustin Byfuglien‘s contract.

Season Overview

Before the Jets even played a 2019-20 preseason game, they lost a big piece. Dustin Byfuglien’s decision to take a leave of absence to contemplate his future ended seven months later with a mutual agreement to terminate the defenseman’s contract. Having already traded away Jacob Trouba and letting Ben Chiarot and Tyler Myers walk in free agency, the blue line took a hit before the puck even dropped.

There were also losses up front when Mark Letestu was ruled out for six months with heart muscle inflammation and Bryan Little suffered a perforated ear drum.

That set a tone for the season as the Jets streaked their way — good and bad — to the first Western Conference wild card spot  at the time of the NHL pause. How much of a roller coaster has it been? The Jets took 28 out of 36 points from November to early December, and then squandered that gained ground with a five-game losing streak and a 3-8-1 skid in January.

Their biggest weapons — Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers — have all led the way offensively. Neal Pionk, who was acquired from the Rangers in the Trouba trade, impressed on defense with positive possession numbers and 45 points. Then you have Connor Hellebuyck, a heavy Vezina Trophy frontrunner, who also deserves some Hart Trophy consideration. The netminder leads the league in shutouts (6), even strength save percentage (.927) and 5-on-5 shots against (1,530).

Entering the NHL break on a four-game winning streak gave the Jets hope that they were peaking at the right time. They’re two points behind the Stars (Dallas has two games in-hand) and were doing a good job of staving off teams like the Predators, Canucks, and Wild, who are right on their heels.

Highlight of the Season

A new extension and on the verge of 40 goals — it’s been a pretty good season for Kyle Connor:

MORE JETS:
• Biggest 2019-20 surprises, disappointments
• Long-term outlook

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

Biggest surprises, disappointments for 2019-20 Senators

By James O'BrienApr 16, 2020, 2:46 PM EDT

With the 2019-20 NHL season on hold we are going to review where each NHL team stands at this moment until the season resumes. Here we take a look at the surprises and disappointments for the Ottawa Senators.

Sharks’ staggering disappointments become big, positive surprises for Senators

The fallout of the Erik Karlsson trade remains hard to believe.

Sure, many of us expected the Sharks to eventually suffer with an aging group starring Karlsson and Brent Burns. But for that to happen in such a dramatic way in 2019-20? Few of us saw that coming.

So, remarkably, the Senators have almost as good of a chance to find the next face of their franchise with the Sharks’ 2020 first-round pick as Ottawa does with its own selection. Pretty mind-blowing stuff.

Senators resist the urge to buy high — so far

There were real fears that the Senators wouldn’t be able to resist the siren call with Jean-Gabriel Pageau‘s explosive contract year.

We see it plenty of times in the NHL. Whether it’s a contender or a team just trying to save face, a GM gets convinced to ignore red flags and sign a cap-clogging contract extension. Luckily, the Senators shook off such self-destructive instincts.

Now, one can wonder how much the Pageau trade has to do with, erm, “budgetary constraints.” But the result is what matters. Instead of possibly paying a good player too much money — one who, at 27, might be in decline by the time the Senators really can compete — Ottawa landed a bushel of quality picks from the Islanders.

Disappointments around the margins by Senators management

Trading away Pageau was a pretty progressive move, but beyond that, I wonder if GM Pierre Dorion left opportunities on the table.

Look, Anthony Duclair ended up being a great story this season, making an All-Star appearance. As someone who believed that Duclair could be a helpful player for some NHL team, it was nice to see that play out.

Frankly, I believe the Senators would have been wiser to try to sell high with a Duclair trade much like they did with Pageau. Sure, savvy teams likely saw through Duclair’s strong offensive numbers and noted that his defensive shortcomings push him closer to neutral …

Senators disappointments surprises GAR
Visualization by Charting Hockey; data via Evolving Hockey

… but someone probably would have coughed up a decent set of assets for a speedy, 24-year-old winger with just a $1.65M cap hit. Right?

Such moves aren’t the end of the world, especially if the Senators don’t go too wild with Duclair’s next contract. Making bigger calls with Karlsson and Pageau move the needle much more.

I do wonder if the Senators missed out on the margins, though, and have for a while.

Selling Tyler Ennis, Vladislav Namestnikov, and to a lesser extent Dylan DeMelo is pretty smart. Most of those assets merely making up for acquiring Namestnikov and Mike Reilly? A little bit curious for a team that’s in an obvious rebuild.

Ottawa’s season wasn’t pretty, but wasn’t the disaster many expected

Yes, the Senators ended up almost where we expected: near the bottom. Maybe credit first-year head coach D.J. Smith for keeping them hungry.

The “could have been worse” theme continues because, unlike some other teams that avoided total humiliation, the Senators didn’t ride on sheer luck. Their goalies were a bit below average, as was their shooting luck. Ottawa’s special teams were putrid, likely the most obvious sign of a glaring lack of talent.

Senators surprises disappointments xG
Visualization by Charting Hockey; data via Evolving Hockey

Falling a bit below average by various metrics? Not so bad.

No doubt about it, you’re grading on a curve when it comes to the Senators. When you adjust your expectations, you’d say Ottawa passed many of its tests. The question is, can the Senators graduate from the more remedial parts of this rebuild, or are these small surprises setting the stage for devastating disappointments?

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Looking at the 2019-20 Ottawa Senators

By James O'BrienApr 16, 2020, 10:54 AM EDT
1 Comment

With the 2019-20 NHL season on hold we are going to take a look at where each NHL team stands at this moment with a series of posts examining their season. Have they met expectations? Exceeded expectations? Who has been the surprise? All of that and more. Today we look at the 2019-20 Ottawa Senators.

2019-20 Ottawa Senators

Record: 25-34-12 (62 points in 71 games), second-worst in the East and in the NHL.
Leading Scorer: Brady Tkachuk – 44 points (21 goals and 23 assists)

In-Season Roster Moves

Season Overview

Heading into 2019-20, the question wasn’t if the Senators would be good or bad. It was how bad? Would the season be an eternal slog mixed with more groan-worthy headlines regarding owner Eugene Melnyk?

The answers: pretty bad, but maybe could have been worse, and … sure, there were bad Melnyk moments, yet 2019-20 wasn’t as drama-loaded as previous seasons.

Instead of the Senators being the kings of the cellar, the Red Wings were the ones who stunk up the joint quite royally. Sure, Ottawa sits second-worst in both the East and the NHL. They still showed some fight here and there, as the Sharks (63 points in 70 games) and Kings (64 in 70) weren’t that far ahead of the Sens.

Maybe most importantly, they didn’t overreact to, say, Jean-Gabriel Pageau playing over his head. As much as trading Pageau might have stung, Ottawa made the right decision.

With the Senators, you can’t always assume that they’ll make the correct judgments. As a franchise-altering 2020 NHL Draft looms, they’ll need to pair wise choices with lottery luck to make the light at the end of the tunnel shine brighter.

Highlight of the Season for 2019-20 Senators

Let’s be honest. It’s probably that the Sharks ended up almost as bad as the Senators.

It’s not yet clear how the 2020 NHL Draft’s lottery will work, but under the old parameters, the Senators hold the second and third-highest odds to land the top pick. Both of those picks have more than one-in-three odds of at least landing in the top three, according to Tankathon.

So, yeah, the biggest highlight or lowlight will probably boil down to whether or not Senators fans see their team’s logo on those prime real estate picks. That doesn’t mean that it’s a disaster if they don’t get the chance to pick Alexis Lafreniere, but the future would look far more promising if they did.

For a more immediate highlight, you won’t beat Bobby Ryan netting a hat trick in his return from dealing with alcohol issues.

MORE ON THE SENATORS:

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

NHL Power Rankings: Teams that improved the most at trade deadline

By Adam GretzFeb 25, 2020, 12:41 PM EST
4 Comments

In this week’s edition of the NHL Power Rankings we take a look at the teams that did the most to improve at the 2020 NHL trade deadline.

We have the teams ranked in a handful of tiers from the potential playoff teams that made significant moves, to the teams that got worse in the short-term to maybe get better in the long-term, to the teams that do not seem to have a plan.

This is not a ranking of current team ability or play. It is simply a ranking of how each team did at the NHL trade deadline.

How did your team do?

To the rankings!

Teams that made significant moves

1. Washington Capitals. Brenden Dillon is the practical addition and gives them exactly what they need. Ilya Kovalchuk might seem like a luxury but they could actually use a little help on the power play and he might still have something left to offer.

2. Vegas Golden Knights. It remains to be seen as to how much he will play, but Robin Lehner will do more to improve their playoff chances than the coaching change did. Now Marc-Andre Fleury has someone to give him a break and the Golden Knights have a safety net if they need it.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning. They paid a steep price in terms of draft picks Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, but neither first-round pick should be very high. Both players are signed through next season on cheap contracts and Coleman in particular is an outstanding player.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins. Still not sure about giving up Dominik Kahun, but they wanted to add depth at forward and they did exactly that. Jason Zucker will make the biggest impact, but Patrick Marleau, Conor Sheary, and Evan Rodrigues will greatly improve their bottom-six forwards.

5. Edmonton Oilers. They didn’t add a star, but they definitely made their lineup better. Connor McDavid and Andreas Athanasiou might be the fastest duo in the league if they play together.

6. New York Islanders. Adam Pelech‘s injury made an Andy Greene type addition a must, and while I am hesitant to pay a player having a career year in a contract year, Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a good player and a strong pickup. Even if a costly one.

7. Boston Bruins. I love the idea of Ondrej Kase and the potential he brings both now and in the future. They just need him to be healthy and stay healthy.

8. Carolina Hurricanes. They did what they needed to do given the circumstances on defense. Sami Vatanen‘s health will determine how that trade works, but I do wonder where Brady Skjei fits when everyone is healthy in future seasons. Vincent Trocheck is the addition to be really excited about here.

9. Vancouver Canucks. On one hand I don’t know if the Canucks are in a position to give up significant assets for a rental. On the other hand, have you seen the Pacific Division? Why not try something?

Teams that made small improvements

10. St. Louis Blues. Marco Scandella‘s name won’t steal a lot of headlines, but he’s a solid addition to the Blues defense and for a decent price.

11. Colorado Avalanche. Little surprising to see the Avalanche not utilize all of their salary cap space and go for a blockbuster addition (that is not to say they did not try), but Vladislav Namestnikov brings some versatility and skill to the bottom of their lineup.

12. Toronto Maple Leafs. Adding a backup goalie like Jack Campbell was a must. Kyle Clifford and Denis Malgin are fine bottom of the lineup additions, but aren’t going to change much. And you know what? That’s fine. This situation isn’t as dire as Toronto is making it seem.

13. Calgary Flames. Erik Gustafsson‘s success or failure in Calgary will depend on how they use him. He will give you offense. He will not give you much defense.

14. Buffalo Sabres. Trading for Wayne Simmonds in their situation is weird, but it didn’t cost much. Kahun is a sneaky good pickup. 

15. Philadelphia Flyers. Derek Grant could be an okay pickup as long as he keeps scoring on 18 percent of his shots. I do not know if Derek Grant can do that.

You got worse now, but it might pay off in the future

16. New Jersey Devils. This season turned out to be a mess and they traded a ton of talent off the roster, but they at least positioned themselves well in terms of draft picks. They now have three first-round picks this summer.

17. Ottawa Senators. With Pageau now off to Long Island, the only players remaining on the roster that played in the 2017 Eastern Conference Final are Bobby Ryan and Craig Anderson. They do have a ton of draft picks. Good draft picks.

18. Minnesota Wild. That rumored Zach Parise trade would have been interesting to see, but they did do well in the Zucker trade. Cale Addison is a strong prospect.

19. New York Rangers. I don’t hate the Chris Kreider contract. They are on the right track and could be a playoff team as soon as next season, and Kreider will still be a part of that. I don’t know that Skjei was worth that contract and they not only dumped it, they picked up a first-round pick for it. That said, it still creates another hole on defense they have to fill.

20. San Jose Sharks. They managed to get a first-round pick back (they were without one due to the Erik Karlsson trade) for Goodrow and collected a second-round pick and two conditional thirds (one of which could become another second-round pick). Maybe they can flip some of those picks this summer for a goalie.

21. Los Angeles Kings. They traded the players they needed to trade and have 11 picks in the 2020 class, including eight in the first four rounds.

22. Detroit Red Wings. Pretty much a similar situation to the Kings. Did they what they needed to do and got some draft picks. They still have a massive undertaking ahead of them over the next several years.

23. Anaheim Ducks. There was a lot of deck chair shuffling here, but trading Kase was a big move. I just wonder if they got enough for a talented player and for taking on a bad contract (David Backes). If Kase excels in Boson it will not look good for Anaheim.

Teams that mostly stayed the same (teams 24-28 — rank them in any order)

Arizona Coyotes. They made their big trade deadline addition in December when they got Taylor Hall.

Dallas Stars. There was a brief rumor that might be in on Joe Thornton but nothing ever came of it.

Nashville Predators. Getting a healthy Ryan Ellis back will do more for them than any trade could have done.

Winnipeg Jets. They did add Dylan DeMelo and Cody Eakin, but their playoff chances will still rest on the pads of Conor Hellebuyck.

Columbus Blue Jackets. They had almost no draft pick capital to trade, so mostly standing pat makes sense. What they really need is for the injuries to stop.

What’s the plan here?

29. Chicago Blackhawks. I’m just having a hard time seeing how this team, as constructed, gets significantly better before it gets significantly worse.

30. Montreal Canadiens. Here is what should concern Canadiens fans: This team isn’t very good, and I am not sure Marc Bergevin is aware of that reality.

31. Florida Panthers. Why spend all that money to hire Joel Quenneville and sign Sergei Bobrovsky only to give them a crappy defense, do nothing to improve the defense, and then trade one of your core players at what might be his lowest value for a quantity over quality return? What are you doing? What. Are. You. Doing?

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Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.