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Significant changes could be coming to Ducks roster

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After losing in the Western Conference Final to the Nashville Predators in 2017, many expected the Anaheim Ducks to go on another run this year. The Ducks had an up-and-down regular season, but did enough to finish second in the Pacific Division. Unfortunately for them, that’s as good as it got.

Once the playoffs kicked off, all they did was make a quick appearance. They had home-ice advantage going into their first-round series against the Sharks, but they still failed to win a single game during the series. They packed their bags for the summer after a 4-0 sweep at the hands of their California rivals.

Veteran teams that get swept in the first round are rarely spared of major changes the following off-season. So what changes might be coming in Anaheim this summer?

Corey Perry

When looking at the Ducks roster, the first name that jumps out as a possible trade candidate is Corey Perry.

Perry has won everything there is to win at the highest levels of hockey, but there’s no denying that his production has dried up over the last few years. Since 2013-14, his goal totals have been 43, 33, 34, 19 and 17. That’s a significant drop off for a guy who’s about to earn$8.625 per year for the next three years. If the Ducks can find a taker, they’d pull the trigger on a deal.

There’s a couple of issues though. First, he’s expensive. Second, we’ve already talked about his dip in production. And lastly, he also has a no-movement clause. Finding a team willing to take Perry and finding a squad he’s willing to go to won’t be easy for GM Bob Murray.

Oh, and by the way, Perry also added a zero points during Anaheim’s first-round sweep at the hands of the Sharks.

Taking a look at the 33-year-old’s advanced stats (via Natural Stat Trick), you can see the regression jump off the page. His CF% (47.46), FF% (46.70), SF% (46.70) and SF% (48.9) are some of the lowest numbers he’s posted in his career. This comes one year after he had already posted a bunch of new lows.

Ryan Kesler

Another veteran that might not be available for totally different reasons, is Ryan Kesler. The veteran has had injury troubles the last couple of years and his aching hips could cause him to miss all of 2018-19.

The Ducks only had him for 44 games in 2017-18, but it’s clear that he’s an important part of their team. He’s able to contribute offensively while playing a sound defensive game, too.

Again, unlike the Perry situation, this one is injury related, but it still affects their depth down the middle in a negative way.

Depth forwards

As of right now, the Ducks only have nine forwards under contract if you count Troy Terry, who played two regular season games at the end of last season. Depth players like Derek Grant, Antoine Vermette, Chris Kelly, Jason Chimera and J.T. Brown are all scheduled to become unrestricted free agents on July 1st. Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie are restricted free agents and both are expected back.

Murray has the benefit of being able to add some fresh new bodies to his lineup. There’s no need to bring back many (if any) of those depth forwards, so they could look at signing quality depth once the market opens.

As of right now, Anaheim has $65 million committed to next year’s team (the cap is expected to be between $78 million and $82 million next season). They’ll have a little wiggle room, but it’s important to note that Kase, Ritchie and defenseman Brandon Montour will all need to get raises this summer. Also, Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg and John Gibson will all need new contracts next off-season, so the Ducks can’t spend foolishly right now.

Defense

There probably won’t be too many changes on the back end in terms of veterans coming in and out of the lineup, as the Ducks already traded Sami Vatanen in-season. Expect them to roll with Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, Montour and Korbinian Holzer. The biggest changes might come in the form of rookies Jacob Larsson and Marcus Pettersson, who could be ready to take on a regular shift with the Ducks next season. Both are highly-regarded prospects that should be around for many years to come.

One familiar face that will likely be gone is Kevin Bieksa, whose two-year, $8 million contract has finally come to an end. He served as a healthy scratch a few times last season, so don’t expect them to bring him back into the fold for another stint.

Goaltending 

Things probably won’t be much different between the pipes. Both Gibson and veteran backup Ryan Miller have one year remaining on their current contracts. Gibson will be an RFA next summer, while Miller will be free to test the open market if he chooses to do so.

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

PHT Morning Skate: Pastrnak’s emergence; Sharks can’t get complacent

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Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

• Not having Cam Fowler has been a significant issue for the Ducks through the first two games of their first-round series against the Sharks. (OC Register)

• San Jose owns a 2-0 lead over the Ducks, so avoiding complacency is their biggest challenge heading into Game 3. (NBC Sports Bay Area)

• A lot of people believe Brad Marchand is the most dangerous player in the NHL, but Nazem Kadri is giving him a run for his money. (Stanley Cup of Chowder)

• During a dominant Game 2 performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs, David Pastrnak showed that he’s ready for prime time. (Bruins Daily)

• The city of Humboldt has been changed forever by a bus crash on a Friday afternoon. The lives lost on that day will never be forgotten, but the people there will have to find a way to continue living. (SI.com)

• ‘Hawks captain Jonathan Toews not only donated game-worn jerseys to the Humboldt Broncos, he also went to visit them. (Chicago Sun-Times)

• Now that Ken Hitchcock has retired, the Stars should look internally for their next head coaching candidate. (Defending Big D)

• There’s no way the Canucks will be able to replace what Daniel and Henrik Sedin did for them, but they need their young players to start contributing offensively now that the twins are gone. (Vancourier)

• The Hockey News ranked each fan base’s level of misery. It’s safe to say that fans of the Blues and Sabres have been tortured the most. Life’s good if you’re a Penguins fan though. (The Hockey News)

• Now that Ilya Kovalchuk has turned 35 years old, he’s officially an unrestricted free agent. He still can’t sign with anyone until July 1st. (The Score)

• ESPN looks at which teams have the most playoff experience on their roster and how that can or can’t help them going forward. (ESPN)

• Black Aces rarely get to participate (on the ice) in their team’s playoff run, but that doesn’t mean that the title is meaningless to them. (Eliteprospects.com)

Kyle Okposo‘s on-ice performance has been disappointing since he joined the Sabres. He knows that he’ll have to spend a lot of time in the gym this summer. (Buffalo Hockey Beat)

• College hockey referee Dan Dreger was on the hook for a portion of his medical bills after taking a slap shot to the face that caused a lot of damage. (Grand Forks Herald)

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

Ducks vs. Sharks: PHT 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff Preview

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This all-California battle seems to be flying under the radar, but this one should be a physical, back-and-forth series between two good teams.

After dropping three games in a row to Nashville, Dallas and St. Louis in early March, the Ducks managed to turn their game and their season around. That loss to the Blues came on Mar. 12, but they responded by winning five of their next six contests (5-0-1). The Ducks had a let-down game against a horrible Vancouver team on Mar. 27, but again, they were able to rattle off five wins in a row to close out the year.

Anaheim ended up finishing the season with fewer wins than San Jose, but their 44-25-13 record (101 points) was good enough to put them in second place in the Pacific Division, which means they’ll have home-ice advantage in the series. That’s good news for the Ducks, as they had a solid 26-10-5 record at the Honda Center.

Even though the Ducks finished with one more point than the Sharks, who had a 45-27-10 record (100 points), Anaheim came away with just one win during the four games between these two teams in 2017-18. San Jose may have won three of the four clashes, but most of these games were extremely close. Three of those four games were decided in a shootout. Only once did a team get blown out, and that was Anaheim when they fell 6-2 at home on Jan. 21.

[NBC’s Stanley Cup Playoff Hub]

A few of San Jose’s top players got off to really rocky starts this season. Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns and Martin Jones struggled early on. Pavelski had just four goals and eight points in his first 19 games, but the 33-year-old still managed to finish with 22 goals and 66 points. Burns failed to score in his first 20 games and he racked up only seven points in his first 19 outings. Like Pavelski, Burns finished strong, as he had 67 points when it was all said and done. As for Jones, he lost his starting gig to Aaron Dell for a while, but he managed to get his game back together.

SCHEDULE:

FORWARDS: 

Anaheim: Rickard Rakell led the Ducks in scoring this season, as he had 34 goals and 69 points in 77 games. He had a great year, but the biggest reason why he led the team in the points department is because Ryan Getzlaf missed time due to injury. The Ducks captain had 61 points in just 56 contests. It was another disappointing season for Corey Perry, who failed to hit the 20-goal mark for the second year in a row (17 goals, 49 points in 71 games). Outside of Rakell, the other two Ducks that hit the 20-goal mark were Ondrej Kase and Adam Henrique. You all know about Ryan Kesler and how he’s capable of getting under the opposition’s skin. He has to stay healthy.

San Jose: Pavelski and Logan Couture (34 goals and 61 points) were the Sharks forwards that finished with the highest amount of points in 2017-18. San Jose also got valuable contributions from Tomas Hertl (22 goals and 46 points), Timo Meier (21 goals and 36 points) and Joonas Donskoi (32 points in 66 games). But the deadline acquisition of Evander Kane changed the game for them. Kane had nine goals and 14 points in 17 games after being traded from Buffalo on Feb. 26.

Advantage: A slight edge to the Sharks. The forward depth these two teams possess is fairly close. Getzlaf is probably the best forward on either side, but the Sharks have slightly more high-end options in Pavelski, Couture and Kane.

DEFENSE:

Anaheim: The Ducks have one of the deepest blue lines in the NHL, but they’re currently dealing with a significant injury. Cam Fowler suffered a shoulder injury earlier this moth. He’s expected to miss anywhere between two-to-six weeks, so it’s entirely possible that he misses the entire first round. Even without Fowler, Anaheim still has Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson and Brandon Montour. Veteran Kevin Bieksa, who isn’t as effective as he once was, is considered questionable with a hand injury.

San Jose: Burns is obviously the key piece of the blue line for the Sharks. He led the team in points and he averaged over 25 minutes of ice time per game during the regular season. Justin Braun (33 points) and Marc-Edouard Vlasic (32 points) are the other important defensemen on the team. San Jose’s group of blue liners have the ability to move the puck as efficiently as any other team in the league.

Advantage: Sharks. If Fowler was healthy, this wouldn’t even be a discussion, but with him sidelined the gap has been closed. Burns, Vlasic and Braun have an edge over Linholm, Manson and Montour, but it isn’t as far as some may think. Again, things change on the blue line because of the Fowler injury.

GOALTENDING: 

Anaheim: John Gibson missed the final three games of the regular season because of an upper-body injury. Veteran backup Ryan Miller stepped in and did a solid job, but there’s no denying that Gibson is the best option for Anaheim. The 24-year-old was really good for the Ducks this season. He didn’t grab as many headlines as some of the other star goalies in the East, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that he was Anaheim’s MVP in 2017-18 (he had a 31-18-7 record with a 2.43 goals-against-average and a .926 save percentage). It sounds like he could be ready for Game 1.

San Jose: As we mentioned earlier in this story, Jones had a tough start to the year but he bounced back down the stretch. The 28-year-old finished the season with a 30-22-6 record with a 2.55 goals-against-average and a .915 save percentage. He’s capable of playing solid games in the postseason (he had a 1.75 GAA and a .935 save percentage during last year’s playoffs), but that still wasn’t enough to get them out of the first round.

Advantage: Anaheim. Gibson has the ability to be the difference maker in this series. If he stays healthy and he continues to play like he did at times this season, he can propel the Ducks to the second round.

SPECIAL TEAMS:

Anaheim: The Ducks weren’t so hot on the man-advantage this season, as they ranked 23rd in the league in that category. Of all the teams in the playoffs, only the Blue Jackets converted on the man-advantage less often than the Ducks. On the PK, things were a lot better for them. Anaheim had the fifth-best penalty-kill at 83.2 percent. Only Los Angeles, San Jose, Boston and Colorado were better in that category.

San Jose: As we just mentioned, the Sharks had the second-best PK unit in the entire NHL at 84.8 percent (they were just 0.2 percent away from matching the Kings). The Sharks were slightly better than the Ducks on the power play, but they still finished with the 16th ranked unit on the man-advantage (20.6 percent). Burns is the straw that stirs the drink on the power play.

Advantage: Sharks. They have a better penalty kill and power play. That’s significant, but there isn’t a huge gap between these two teams when it comes to special teams.

X-FACTOR:

Anaheim: Corey Perry can be a game-changer for the Ducks, but they need him to score more goals than he did during the regular season. If he regains that scoring touch, he could change things for the better. Perry had four goals and 11 points in 17 games during Anaheim’s run to the Western Conference Final last season.

San Jose: As we saw after the trade deadline, Kane made a huge difference for the Sharks. He was engaged, productive and he was one of their better players. He hasn’t played any playoff hockey in the NHL, so it’ll be interesting to see how he adapts to the postseason. The pending unrestricted free agent should be motivated to keep the ball rolling this spring.

PREDICTION:

Ducks in six games. These two teams are as evenly matched as any of the opponents going head-to-head in the first round. San Jose may have a slight edge up front, on defense (with now Fowler) and on special teams, but the Ducks have similar quality. They aren’t too far behind the Sharks in those categories. Anaheim has a net advantage between the pipes and they also have experience on their side. They managed to get to the Western Conference Final last season, and they have the ability to do that again this year.

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

Crunching the numbers for the Stanley Cup playoffs

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DENVER (AP) — Pittsburgh Penguins right winger Josh Jooris wears No. 16. That happens to be the total wins necessary for the team to retain the Stanley Cup for a third straight season.

There are lots of relevant numbers to be crunched heading into the playoffs, which begin Wednesday night. For instance, zero comes to mind, which is the number of expansion teams that have hoisted the Cup after starting from scratch. That’s a figure the upstart Vegas Golden Knights are aiming to update.

Or Sweet 16 – the amount of teams that still have a shot at that coveted trophy. Here is a by-the-numbers glance at a postseason that will last two action-packed months. Welcome to beard-growing season:

16 – Game-winning playoff goals for Toronto forward Patrick Marleau .

15 – Times Claude Giroux of Philadelphia had at least two assists in a game this season. He and Blake Wheeler of Winnipeg tied for the league lead with 68.

14 – Career playoff goals in 55 games for Winnipeg forward Paul Stastny , who was acquired from St. Louis in February.

13 – Age of New Jersey forward Nico Hischier the last time the Devils made the postseason in 2011-12.

12 – Spot where Anaheim defenseman Cam Fowler was picked in the 2010 entry draft . He’s played the third-most NHL regular season games of anyone in that draft class.

11 – :45 p.m. The time Game 2 of the 1951 semifinal series between Boston and Toronto – who meet in the first round this season – was halted at 1-1. Maple Leaf Gardens needed to clear patrons by midnight because of a Toronto ordinance in effect, according to the Bruins website .

[NBC’s Stanley Cup Playoff Hub]

10 – Postseason shutouts by Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury in his career.

9 – Uniform number of Artemi Panarin , who led Columbus with 82 points. No. 9 Filip Forsberg also led his Nashville team in scoring with 64, and No. 9 Taylor Hall led New Jersey with 93. Cloud Nine for sure.

8 – Overtime playoff goals scored by Avalanche Hall of Famer-turned-executive Joe Sakic , the most for a career. Maurice ”Rocket” Richard is next with six.

7 – New teams that weren’t in the playoffs a season ago, matching the biggest year-to-year change. It includes Colorado, Los Angeles, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Vegas and Winnipeg.

6 – Approximate length, in inches – or maybe in feet – of the impressive beard grown by Brent Burns of San Jose. The gold standard of whiskers.

5.9 – Goals averaged per game this season, an increase of 7 percent from a year ago. There were 7,552 regular-season goals.

5 – Combined playoff hat tricks for Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby (2) and Evgeni Malkin (2), along with Washington’s Alex Ovechkin (1). Wayne Gretzky had 10.

4a – Number of times a team has rallied from a 0-3 playoff deficit to win a series. The last occurrence was the Kings over the Sharks during the first round in 2014.

4b – Times since the conference format was introduced in ’74-75 the last-place team from each side earned a playoff spot the next season. New Jersey and Colorado had the distinction in 2017-18, joining the Red Wings/Rockies (finished last in ’76-77), Bruins/Sharks (last in ’96-97) and Maple Leafs/Oilers (last in ’15-16).

3 – Draft picks Vegas surrendered to Detroit at the trade deadline to acquire forward Tomas Tatar , who has three goals and four assists in 17 playoff games.

2 – Number of Canadian teams in the postseason, which is less than California (three).

1.95 – Career goals-against average for Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray in the playoffs.

1a – Number of players born in France in these playoffs (Pierre-Edouard Bellemare of Vegas).

1b – Number of players born in Nebraska in these playoffs (Jake Guentzel of Pittsburgh).

0 – Times Minnesota and Winnipeg have faced each other in the playoffs. The two first-round foes never met in the NHL playoffs when Minnesota had the North Stars (now in Dallas) or Winnipeg had the original Jets (now in Arizona).

More NHL hockey: https://apnews.com/tag/NHLhockey

PHT Power Rankings: Why your team won’t win the Stanley Cup

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Winning the Stanley Cup is a daunting task that requires a talented team playing its best hockey at the right time of year, staying reasonably healthy, and perhaps most importantly getting a little bit of luck along the way.

Getting through four best-of-seven series against the best teams in the league over a two-month stretch with all of that going right, and without running into some team that has a ridiculously goalie playing out of his mind for two weeks, is a huge challenge.

Only one team does it every year. That means from a simple mathematical standpoint your team only has a six percent chance of being the one that is standing at the top of the mountain when the playoffs end in mid-June.

[NBC’s Stanley Cup Playoff Hub]

Every team in the field has some sort of a flaw or a question mark that will probably be their ultimate undoing.

In this week’s edition of the PHT Power Rankings we get you ready for the playoffs by looking at all of them, ranked in order of the team most likely to overcome their flaws, to the team least likely to do it.

Here we go.

1. Nashville Predators — On paper they are the most complete team in the league and that resulted in the league’s best record. Deep group of forwards? Check. Great defense? Check. Goalie having an amazing season? Check. Speaking of which, Pekka Rinne has been awesome this season, but can he maintain that level of play throughout the playoffs? His performance this season is a bit of an outlier when compared to recent seasons and he’s had some rough postseason showings over the years. He wasn’t great in the Stanley Cup Final a year ago, getting pulled in two of the six games.

2. Winnipeg Jets — This team has been around for 18 years, in two different cities, with two different names, and is playing in the playoffs for just the third time. It is an organization that, as of this posting, has yet to win a single playoff game in its existence. Forget winning a series, their next playoff win will be their first. They should finally get one this year. But will they be able to get 16 of them? They have a scary offense and Connor Hellebuyck has put together a season that should get him some Vezina Trophy votes, but there is also the possibility that he reverts back to being the Hellebuyck he was before this season. There’s also the fact that if they do get through Minnesota in round one their reward is (probably) going to be a series with the Presidents’ Trophy winning Nashville Predators. The playoff format might be their biggest undoing.

3. Boston Bruins — No matter how many injuries they had this season they just kept rolling along and have been incredible since the start of November. So what is a concern? Will Zdeno Chara be able to keep logging the minutes he has been at his age and playing the way he has or will he wear down a bit? Will they be able to stay healthy? Will Brad Marchand do something dumb and get himself suspended?

4. Tampa Bay Lightning — On paper the Lightning don’t have a lot of flaws, and they were one of the best teams in the league for most of the season. But they kind of limped down the stretch by winning just six of their final 13 games and generally not looking great over the past month. There is also this nightmare that Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi are going to end up on the ice at the same time, a scenario that has been dreadful for them in the limited time they’ve been on the team together this year (outscored 6-2 in 120 5-on-5 minutes together). Just as it was during their Rangers days.

5. Vegas Golden Knights — The team nobody expected to be here. It has been a pretty incredible season where almost everything they have put their hands on has turned into a success. Eventually some of that luck has to run out … right? Also worth noting that Marc-Andre Fleury has a .908 career playoff save percentage in 115 games and has finished seven of his 11 playoff appearances with a save percentage below .908, including six under .900.

6. Washington Capitals — Deeper and better Capitals teams than this one failed to win the Stanley Cup in each of the past two years, so why would this one be any different? Plus, there were times this season they didn’t look as good as their record would seem to indicate. We don’t really know who their goalie is and the one that has been a rock the past few years — Braden Holtby — had an uncharacteristically bad year. Seems like a concern.

7. Pittsburgh Penguins — They can be a mess at times defensively, their penalty kill has been lousy for a few weeks, and they are not getting great goaltending. They had the some of the same flaws going into the playoffs a year ago and still managed to win another Stanley Cup because they could outscore everyone and, perhaps most importantly, received sensational goaltending from Fleury and Matt Murray. That is a concern going into the playoffs this season because Fleury is playing in Vegas, Murray has been hit-and-miss at times this year, and they do not really have a reliable backup behind him.

8. Toronto Maple Leafs — They are going to score a lot of goals and they are going to give up a lot of chances. No team in the playoffs gives up more shots on goal than them. If Frederik Andersen is not on top of his game the latter will cause a lot of problems. They also have the misfortune of drawing one of the NHL’s best teams in the first round.

9. Anaheim Ducks — They are the “hot team” heading into the playoffs, but they are also one of the teams dealing with some significant injuries (as they have all year). Cam Fowler is a big loss and John Gibson, for as great as he is, can’t seem to stay on the ice consistently.

10. Columbus Blue Jackets —  Artemi Panarin is the difference-maker they needed in their lineup and they have an outstanding duo on defense with Zach Werenski and Seth Jones, but how many teams win the Stanley Cup without a No. 1 center that topped 50 points? Pierre Luc-Dubois had a great rookie year and looks like he’s going to be a really good player in the NHL, but the lack of depth down the middle is going to be a problem. And that doesn’t even get into the question mark that is the playoff version of Sergei Bobrovsky.

11. San Jose Sharks — They very quietly put together a 100-point season (their best season in four years) and did it after losing Patrick Marleau in free agency and without Joe Thornton for half of the season. They are good, but that seems to be the ceiling. There is nothing really special about them, especially if Thornton isn’t able to return.

12. Philadelphia Flyers — Goaltending is a big question, as it always seems to be with the Flyers, but they also have a big problem when their top line is not on the ice. When Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier were on the ice during 5-on-5 play this season the Flyers outscored teams by a 70-40 margin and controlled 55 percent of the total shot attempts. When neither player was on the ice: They were outscored 76-96 and only controlled 48 percent of the total shot attempts. Their first-round opponent is going to roll out Sidney Crosby on one line, Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist on another line, and Derick Brassard and Phil Kessel on another line.

13. Los Angeles Kings — They have been a different team with Jeff Carter in the lineup and he gives them a great 1-2 punch down the middle with Anze Kopitar, but they still have some issues. They are not the dominant possession team they have been in recent years and it’s still a top-heavy team that doesn’t have a lot of scoring depth beyond its top four or five players.

14. Minnesota Wild — The Pittsburgh Penguins were able to win a championship a year ago without their No. 1 defenseman. That might give the Wild, who will not have Ryan Suter in the postseason due to an ankle injury, a little bit of hope that it can be done. The problem for the Wild is going to be the fact they don’t have the firepower the Penguins had, and probably will not be fortunate enough to get the level of goaltending the Penguins did. Their potential path to the Conference Final would also probably have to include going through the top two teams in the NHL. Literally, the top two teams. No. 1 and 2 in the league in total points. Good luck, everybody.

15. Colorado Avalanche — Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are great, but it’s not a particularly deep team around and they also have some injury issues with Semyon Varlamov and Erik Johnson on the shelf going into the playoffs. Great success story this season to go from the absolute worst team in hockey to the playoffs in one year. It is a nice stepping stone in the development of the team. It probably ends there this season.

16. New Jersey Devils — Taylor Hall almost single handedly dragged this team to the playoffs, and it was an incredible accomplishment. He probably will not be leading them to 16 more. Like the Avalanche this was a wildly successful year and perhaps the most encouraging thing is the development of some of their young players. But it is not a Stanley Cup team. Yet.

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Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.