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Beyond Karlsson: Five players who could be dealt this summer

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The hockey world is collectively holding its breath at the moment.

Erik Karlsson‘s future certainly doesn’t seem to lie in Ottawa with the Senators, and much of the past week(s) has been dubbed #KarlssonWatch as such.

But while Karlsson is obviously the biggest commodity on the trade block, there are several other players with pretty good pedigrees that could be on the move as well.

Let’s take a look at five prime candidates to still switch teams this summer, in no particular order.

Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes

Here’s how a solid defenseman gets his name on the trading block:

1. New owner arrives
2. New owner appoints new front office pieces
3. New front office pieces see team in shambles
4. Team in shambles hasn’t made playoffs in nine years
5. Team in shambles that hasn’t made playoffs in nine years doesn’t have a starting goalie
6. Team in shambles that hasn’t made playoffs in nine years doesn’t have a starting goalie already traded away prospects for another good defenseman
6. Trade good players to help rectify bad situation

The Hurricanes are rebuilding and already made a good trade to get Dougie Hamilton from Calgary. Faulk had a down year, sure, but the Hurricanes weren’t a very good team.

And they need to address Scott Darling and his inability to be a starting goalie in the NHL if they want to compete this year. They’ve found a backup in Petr Mrazek, but missed out on Philipp Grubauer and now need to try and pry something away from a team willing to give up a potential starter.

It’s either that, or they need to find a way to get better in front of Darling.

Max Pacioretty, Montreal Canadiens

This one is pretty much set in stone, right?

When your general manager reportedly comes out and says there’s not going to be any contract negotiations regarding an extension, that’s a good a sign as any that it’s game over in Montreal.

That same report even suggested that Pacioretty might even look at re-signing with the Canadiens, the NHL’s brightest-burning tire fire at the moment.

Sure, the Canadiens are rebuilding and Pacioretty likely will command a decent return given his friendly salary, but any rebuild requires some veterans to stick around, and Pacioretty is the guy they should be wooing instead of bringing back Tomas Plekanec.

Oh, Marc Bergevin.

Corey Perry, Anaheim Ducks

The days of Hart trophies and Art Ross’ are long gone for the aging Perry, who has begun the descent in his career arc.

Perry carries with him a salary cap hit of nearly $9 million a season and that doesn’t run out for another three seasons, so moving the former ‘Rocket’ Richard winner won’t be easy.

Salary retention would likely be a must in any trade the Ducks pull off, but the Ducks need to sign a few players, including Ondrej Kase, who is quickly becoming Perry’s replacement at right wing.

This one seems unlikely given what Perry makes, but some teams need to hit the cap floor and some teams are willing to give a player of Perry’s stature a fresh lease on life hoping to extract some end-of-career heroics.

Milan Lucic, Edmonton Oilers

It goes without saying, but this is a brutal contract for the Edmonton Oilers.

Lucic hasn’t fit and isn’t adapting to the game that’s getting faster around him, leading many observers calling for the bruiser power forward to be traded.

It’s not easy.

Perhaps we could see a Karlsson-lite sort of deal, where Lucic is packaged with a better player to shed his salary, similar to what Ottawa is trying to do to rid themselves of Bobby Ryan‘s contract.

It’s a bit of mess for Peter Chiarelli, who got himself into it in the first place. He loves himself some Lucic after winning the Stanley Cup with him in 2011.

But Chiarelli’s job isn’t getting easier after missing the playoffs with arguably the world’s best player. This isn’t about loyalty anymore for Chiarelli, it’s about his job security.

Artemi Panarin, Columbus Blue Jackets

When a player is on the fence about committing his long-term future to a team, it usually means he doesn’t want to commit his long-term future that certain team.

This is devastating for the Blue Jackets, who have one of the better teams in the NHL.

From our own James O’Brien:

He set a new career in total points. He averaged more shots on goal per game. His possession numbers jumped to an elite level. He was Columbus’ best and most impactful player for the entire season. When he was on the ice during 5-on-5 play the Blue Jackets controlled 57 percent of the total shot attempts. They outscored teams by a 61-37 margin. Without him on the ice the Blue Jackets were outshot (49 percent shot attempt) and outscored (108-111).

Panarin has a year remaining on his current contract and will turn into an unrestricted free agent next July. The return on him would be pretty good if perhaps slightly muted given the situation at this point.

It’s a lose-lose for Columbus, unless they want to give him a two-year deal and hopefully convince him to sign a longer-term contract later down the road.

The Blue Jackets aren’t far off from competing for the Stanley Cup. They have a lot of talent on their roster, including a world-class goaltender.

But you can’t lose Panarin, your best player, for nothing in a year’s time. If he isn’t willing to re-sign and meet your criteria, then you’re forced to move him, and that’s the situation, at least it appears, the Blue Jackets find themselves in.

Think someone else is likely to get moved?

Have your say in the comments.

Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

Five logical landing spots for Erik Karlsson

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The fire’s been turned up on Erik Karlsson trade speculation in the last few days. After the Sens made their franchise defenseman a contract offer on Sunday, the team allowed interested teams to speak to him about a potential trade/extension, too.

Assuming they trade him, the Senators should be able to get a strong return for Karlsson, but who’s going to give them the best offer? And who is the 28-year-old willing to sign an extension with?

Let’s take a look at the five logical landing spots for the Sens captain. There are more than five, but these are the teams that stand out for various reasons:

• Vegas Golden Knights

It’s been reported over and over again that the Golden Knights made a strong push to acquire the Swedish blueliner at the trade deadline, but that didn’t end up working out. Now, they’ve got more time to get something done. GM George McPhee still has to sign RFAs William Karlsson, Colin Miller and Shea Theodore, but he has over $18 million at his disposal.

Looking at what Vegas has to offer, it would seem logical to think that the Sens would want Cody Glass, who was the sixth overall pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. The Golden Knights aren’t loaded with high-end prospects, so they probably won’t want to part ways with Glass, especially after he posted a 102-point season in the WHL. Will the Sens be willing to accept a Glass-less package?

• Tampa Bay Lightning

The Bolts would have to create some cap space to make this happen because they only have $4.446 million left to spend, but that shouldn’t be a problem if the Sens are willing to ship them Karlsson.

Things could get really tricky if the Sens insist on Tampa Bay taking Bobby Ryan‘s $7.25 million cap hit as part of the deal, too.

The Lightning have some good prospects like Cal Foote, Taylor Raddysh and a few others, but the Sens will likely want immediate help, too. Would the Lightning give up a Brayden Point or a Mikhail Sergachev? Probably not. So is there enough there for these two sides to make a deal? It’ll be up to GM Steve Yzerman to get creative.

• San Jose Sharks

The Sharks whiffed on their attempt to land John Tavares, so they can now shift their focus to Karlsson. This summer, general manager Doug Wilson has proved that he’s capable of thinking outside the box when it comes to acquiring players and creating cap space. If he can pull this off, it would be huge for the organization.

San Jose already has Brent Burns, so a one-two punch with him and Karlsson would be devastating to face for the rest of the league.

Wilson has over $8 million to spend and he only has one RFA (Chris Tierney) to lock up. One of the issues though, is that the Sharks don’t have a first-rounder, as they traded it to Buffalo for Evander Kane (the Sharks could keep their pick if they finish in the bottom 10 of the league).

• Philadelphia Flyers

Here’s a team that hasn’t necessarily been linked to Karlsson in the mainstream media, but they could be a fit for his services.

The Flyers have money to spend right now, as they have $14.7 million in cap space. Yes, they’ll have to start paying Ivan Provorov big money next season, but you can worry about that later. Talents like Karlsson aren’t made available very often, so you have to make it work.

Philadelphia has plenty of quality prospects at their disposal and the roster is young enough that they can afford to move some of them away.

A blue line of Provorov, Shayne Gostisbere and Karlsson would be one of the best in the entire NHL. Now they only need to find a goalie.

• Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche and Senators made a blockbuster deal last season when Matt Duchene moved to Ottawa, so we know that they’ve worked together before.

The Avs have just under $14.5 million to spend on the cap and they don’t really have any significant players to re-sign this summer. There’s plenty of room for them to fit Karlsson under the cap. Would they be willing to take Ryan, too?

The big thing Colorado has going for them, is that they currently own Ottawa’s first-rounder in 2019. The Sens can say whatever they want about being competitive in 2018-19, but if they lose Karlsson, their lottery odds will likely increase next season. Imagine finishing in the lottery and missing on a chance at Jack Hughes?

Right now, there’s pressure on the Sens to be good because they don’t have that draft pick. If they use Karlsson to get that pick (and other stuff), that would take away the pressure to be good. They could just opt for a quick rebuild because they’d own their own top selection, again.

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

Canucks lure Beagle, Roussel to Vancouver with plenty of term

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With a little over $18 million to play with, the Vancouver Canucks were willing to ‘weaponize’ their cap space and take on some bad deals in order to bring in some quality. Think taking on Bobby Ryan’s contract in order to acquire Erik Karlsson. That kind of mindset.

Well, as the NHL free agent market opened on Sunday, the Canucks certainly went about adding some bad deals, but their first two moves didn’t have any big time quality names attached to them.

Bottom-six forward Jay Beagle, 32, and Antoine Roussel, 28, are the newest Canucks after both signed identical four-year, $12 million deals. If general manager Jim Benning and head coach Travis Green wanted to add grit to the roster with Derek Dorsett retired, those are nice pickups as both can also provide a little offense. But four years? Have they not watched how the Matt Martin contract has played out in Toronto?

“Jay is a detailed player with championship experience, who can handle a big defensive workload,” said Benning. “He’s grown and developed his game with a core group of players and won at every level of pro hockey. We’re excited to add a player with his calibre of character and experience to our team.”

“Antoine is a competitor with a skill set that benefits our team,” said Benning. “He’s a physical player, hard-to-play against with the ability to contribute offensively. We’re pleased to welcome Antoine as a member of the Vancouver Canucks.”

The Canucks won’t be playoff bound next spring and that’s fine. They’ve got a number of young players who can contribute like Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson, Adam Gaudette, Bo Horvat and this year’s top pick, Quinn Hughes, if he doesn’t return to Michigan. If the idea here is to protect some of your future stars, you could probably find those types of guys in late July on cheap, one year deals.

Also, for a Canucks team that’s all about the future, one year deals for Beagle and Roussel and then flipping them at the trade deadline for draft picks would have been the ideal play. But this is the NHL, and with how some GMs think, the pair likely had multi-year offers on the table. Benning was the one willing to really extend the term to fill that coveted “grit” category.

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

The Penguins’ reported interest in Jack Johnson is baffling

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On Wednesday the Pittsburgh Penguins cleared a significant amount of salary cap space over the next two years by sending forward Conor Sheary and defenseman Matt Hunwick to the Buffalo Sabres for a draft pick.

That trade, combined with the bump to the league-wide cap ceiling for 2018, has given the Penguins more than $10 million in salary cap space to work with this summer. Only needing to re-sign Jamie Oleksiak and Riley Sheahan, that newfound cap space gives them plenty of options in free agency or the trade market and could make them contenders for a number of impact players. It also helped them correct what was a pretty significant mistake in last summer’s free agent signing period when gave Hunwick a three-year contract that paid him more than $2 million per season. It became apparent very early in the season that Hunwick and the Penguins were not a great match as the veteran struggled throughout much of the season and eventually found himself as a healthy scratch.

That signing not working out — and the ensuing trade — is just one of the reasons Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford is looking to upgrade the team’s blue line this summer.

[Related: Penguins ship Hunwick, Sheary to Buffalo in cap-clearing trade]

One player the team seems to be targeting in free agency: Former Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Jack Johnson.

Over the past couple of weeks there has been plenty of smoke surrounding the Penguins and Johnson with both Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reporting that the two sides could be a possible match. On Wednesday there seemed to be a little more fuel thrown on that fire when reports began to surface out of Pittsburgh that Johnson could be joining the Penguins on Sunday when the free agent signing period officially begins.

According to Mackey, the Penguins intend to sign Johnson to a five-year (five-year!) contract on Sunday for a dollar amount that could be in the $3-3.5 million range. Mark Madden of 105.9 the X, the Penguins’ flagship radio station, first reported the five-year term.

Assuming all of this plays out this would be a pretty bizarre series of events for the Penguins.

For one, even though the reported contract numbers would represent a sharp reduction in salary from Johnson’s previous contract, that is still a significant amount of money for a team that is perpetually pressed against the league’s salary cap ceiling. Especially for a player that is 31 years old (and will turn 32 during the season), coming off of a career-worst year offensively, and whose season ended with him being a healthy scratch on a fringe playoff team that was bounced in the first round.

None of that should sound encouraging.

Johnson entered the NHL more than a decade ago with much fanfare. He was the third player selected in the Sidney Crosby draft (behind Crosby and Bobby Ryan) and that pre-draft hype has followed him around for most of his career, at least in the sense that hockey people seem to love him no matter how much evidence there is to suggest that he isn’t as good as they thought he was going to be.

Objectively speaking the numbers are ugly.

Since entering the NHL in 2006-07 Johnson’s minus-109 mark is the worst among all NHL players.

Flawed as plus/minus is, when you are talking about more than a decades worth of data, and also taking into account that Johnson has played on some pretty good teams during his career, there should be cause for concern that he has finished as a plus-player just once in his career. He has been minus-5 or worse in every other season. Six times he has finished as a minus-12 or worse.

From a shots perspective things are just as bad.

Since the start of the 2006-07 season (Johnson’s debut year) there have been more than 356 defensemen that have played at least 100 games in the NHL. Johnson’s 48 percent Corsi rating is 275th out of that group.

Just looking at the past five years his 47.9 mark is 204th out of 259 defenders.

In other words: When Jack Johnson is on the ice his team is getting badly outshot and badly outscored. That is a terrible combination.

So why in the world are the Penguins interested in this?

They obviously need some additional help on the blue line and definitely need some additional depth. But is this the best way to get it? Is this the best allocation of resources?

In recent years the Penguins have had some success taking on reclamation projects on defense and getting more out of them than other teams have been able to with the additions of Trevor Daley, Justin Schultz, and most recently Jamie Oleksiak.

But none of those players required the type of immediate commitment they would be giving Johnson. All of them were originally acquired for minimal assets (Daley was acquired for Rob Scuderi, while Schultz and Oleksiak were acquired for mid-round draft picks). The other factor: Schultz and Oleksiak were both in their age 25 seasons when they were acquired and had at least shown flashes that they had more to offer in the right setting. Johnson, again, will turn 32 years old this season. What we have seen from him at this point in his career is a pretty good indication that this is what he is as a player. And if you’re looking for a potential player to “fix,” that is a huge commitment for a question mark.

There is nothing wrong with a team wanting to sign Jack Johnson in free agency. Yes, his entire career he has been woefully miscast as a top-pairing defenseman and has consistently shown he is probably not suited for that role.

But in the right setting, on the right contract, in the right role, there might be some value for a team to find. Based on every piece of evidence we have to look at throughout Johnson’s career, the right contract and the right role is not a five-year commitment for an apparent top-four role on a cap-strapped team.

Rutherford is a three-time Stanley Cup champion and has made some fantastic trades/transactions during his time in Pittsburgh. But he is not invincible. He is not immune to mistakes, as evidence by the fact that literally every addition he made last summer has already been jettisoned by the Penguins. If they actually go through with a five-year, $16 million contract for Johnson with the hopes of playing him in a top-four role it would not be a shock to see them trying to get out of that contract before it expires as well.

More NHL Free Agency:
PHT Power Rankings: The top-20 NHL Free Agents
• Ilya Kovalchuk, Kings agree to terms on three-year deal
• John Carlson gets $64 million payday as Capitals lock up defenseman

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Why Senators should give Avalanche their first pick this year

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The Ottawa Senators hold the No. 4 overall pick in the 2018 NHL draft on Friday night.

In most situations this would be seen as a big opportunity for a struggling team to potentially find an impact player and perhaps a franchise building block.

This, however, is not most situations.

Before the Senators decide which prospect they might be adding to their mess of a franchise they have another pretty big decision to make; A decision that will not only impact the future of a teenage hockey player, but also the potential direction of two franchises.

They have to decide if they are actually going to keep the pick or send it to the Colorado Avalanche.

Part of the package the Senators sent to the Avalanche in this past season’s Matt Duchene trade was a conditional first-round draft pick. The Condition on the pick was simple. The Senators get to choose whether they send the Avalanche their 2018 first-round pick or their 2019 first-round pick. When the Senators made the trade they were just a few months removed from a trip to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals where they were a double overtime goal on the road from reaching the Stanley Cup Final.

They had every intention of making the playoffs again and were probably assuming their decision regarding the 2018 first-round pick would revolve around a pick that was much later in the draft. Instead, the bottom fell out on the Senators’ 2017 Cinderella story and the team finished what would turn out to be a disastrous campaign with one of the worst records in the league. Things have only managed to get much worse for the organization after the season ended.

At first glance, the easy answer here for the Senators might be to keep the guaranteed No. 4 overall pick and hope the 2018-19 season goes better, leaving the Avalanche with a later pick in the draft. After all, giving up a top-five pick is no small thing and is not an easy thing to sell to your players or fanbase. You should be planning on getting a potential All-Star there.

Every indication is that the Senators are going to do just that. Back in April general manager Pierre Dorion said they were keeping the pick, while Sportsnet’s Chris Johnson reported on Wednesday that still seems to be the case.

The Senators should not do this.

As difficult as it might be, the smart play here for Ottawa is to just take the painful hit that is giving up a top-five pick, send it to Colorado right now, and just get the entire thing over with.

The problem for the Senators is there is a very real possibility the 2018-19 season is going to go even worse than this past season did. That means the 2019 first-round pick could be even higher than fourth overall.

Let’s consider the big picture here.

First, there is nothing to indicate that the 2017-18 season struggles for the Senators were a fluke.

They were every bit as bad as their record would indicate and they earned that dismal 67-point output.

If anything, the outlier was the 2016-17 season when they went on their stunning run through the Eastern Conference playoffs. That team was consistently beaten in the possession game and was carried by great goaltending and a superhuman performance in the playoffs by Erik Karlsson. Anyone paying attention to the way that team played had to know that for as magical as their playoff run was, the whole thing was a house of cards always teetering on the edge of a collapse.

The collapse happened this past season.

The Senators not only finished with the second-worst record in the league, they were once again completely decimated when it came the possession game finishing as a 47.2 Corsi team, the third-worst mark in the NHL. Something to keep in mind about that number is that over the past five seasons there have been 23 teams that finished a season with a Corsi number of 47.2 or worse.  Out of that group, only six of them came back the next season and improved their point total, and one of them was the 2014-15 Sabres who quite literally had nowhere to go but up after finishing an 82-game season with only 52 points.

But it’s not just from a statistical standpoint that things look bleak for the Senators’ chances next season.

Consider what the roster could look like.

Derick Brassard is already gone having been traded at the deadline to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Mike Hoffman, one of their leading scorers from this past season, has already been traded this summer. It is entirely possible, if not likely, that Erik Karlsson, Bobby Ryan, and Zack Smith could also all be dealt in the coming days and weeks.

[Related: Senators trade Hoffman for underwhelming return]

Even if all three return there is not much reason for optimism that things are going to go better.

If any of them go (or even if just Karlsson goes) then the team could potentially bottom out this season.

The downside to giving up the pick is that it sends a message to the players still on the roster that management thinks they are going to be worse than they were a year ago.

But if Karlsson goes — on top of all of the other subtractions that have been made in recent months — they have to know that is a possible, if not likely, outcome anyway.

It also removes what could be a season-long distraction as the standings get watched on a nightly basis as everyone looks at what potential pick will be going to Colorado.

The reality with the Senators is this: The franchise has turned into a complete disaster and it is quite possible that it has yet to reach rock bottom on the ice.

It probably needs to go all in on a teardown right now and start from scratch (preferably with a new owner, too). If that happens the 2018-19 team is going to sink to Ted Murray “tank for McDavid” Sabres levels. That means potentially giving up would could truly be a franchise changing player in the long run if they put off the decision to send a first-round pick to Colorado until next year.

Take the hit. Give up the pick this year. Start the rebuild and hope that the lottery balls fall in your favor next season.

Related: Senators face long odds in ‘winning’ Erik Karlsson trade

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.