Push for the Playoffs: Blue Jackets look to lock down postseason berth

Push for the Playoffs will run every morning through the end of the 2018-19 NHL season. We’ll highlight the current playoff picture in both conferences, take a look at what the first-round matchups might look like, see who’s leading the race for the best odds in the draft lottery and more.

This is it.

There’s only one playoff spot left and it looks like the Columbus Blue Jackets are going to bring it home. All they have to do is win tonight at Madison Square Garden against the New York Rangers. Even if they fail to do so, a win in Ottawa tomorrow night will also get the job done.

The Blue Jackets got a lot of help from their division rival, the Washington Capitals, last night, after the Caps took down the Montreal Canadiens, 2-1.

So the Habs and Jackets are tied for the final Wild Card spot in the East, but Montreal has just one game left and Columbus leads them in ROW by three victories. It would basically take an epic collapse for them not to get into the playoffs this year.

They’ll be looking for a bounce-back performance after dropping a 6-2 decision to the Boston Bruins on Tuesday night.

“This is playoff hockey,” captain Nick Foligno said after the loss to Boston, per NHL.com. “This is what wins it this time of the year. The team that does it better than the other is going to win. They didn’t do anything special defensewise. They just checked better, which led to offense. We’ve been doing it that way the past five games here, so I’m not going to dwell on this one.”

General manager Jarmo Kekalainen was clearly the most aggressive GM at the trade deadline. He added Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzlingel, Adam McQuaid and Keith Kinkaid to his roster, and although it didn’t seem to be working out for the team at first, they’ve a way to put it all together.

Whether or not those moves will help them win their first playoff round in franchise history is a different story. But for now, all they have to worry about is claiming that last playoff spot.

It’s probably a good idea for them to get the job done tonight, because a do-or-die game against the Ottawa Senators will bring a ton of pressure for a few reasons. Yes, the Sens are the worst team in the league, but that team will want to spoil the party for former teammates Duchene and Dzingel. Also, Anthony Duclair, who was 19 goals by the way, was called out by John Tortorella before he was shipped off to Ottawa. You think he wants to ruin the fun for Columbus? No doubt about it. There’s no reason to think the Blue Jackets can’t beat the Senators in a one-off, but why risk it? The Jackets need to take care of business tonight so that they can rest players in the second half of a back-to-back situation.

TODAY’S GAMES WITH PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
Blue Jackets at Rangers, 7 p.m. ET
Stars at Blackhawks, 8:30 p.m. ET

TODAY’S CLINCHING SCENARIOS
The Blue Jackets will clinch a playoff spot…

• If they defeat the New York Rangers in any fashion

The Stars will clinch the first wild card from the Western Conference and the Avalanche will clinch the second wild card from the Western Conference…
• If Dallas earns at least one point against the Chicago Blackhawks.

PLAYOFF PERCENTAGES (via Hockey Reference)
Lightning — Clinched
Bruins — Clinched
Capitals — Clinched
Islanders —  Clinched
Maple Leafs — Clinched
Penguins — Clinched
Hurricanes — Clinched
Blue Jackets — 88.1 percent
Canadiens — 11.9 percent
Flyers — Eliminated
Panthers — Eliminated
Sabres — Eliminated
Rangers — Eliminated
Devils — Eliminated
Red Wings — Eliminated
Senators — Eliminated

PLAYOFF PERCENTAGES (via Hockey Reference)
Flames — Clinched
Jets — Clinched
Sharks — Clinched
Predators — Clinched
Blues — Clinched
Golden Knights — Clinched
Stars — Clinched
Avalanche — Clinched
Coyotes — Eliminated
Wild — Eliminated
Blackhawks — Eliminated
Oilers — Eliminated
Canucks — Eliminated
Ducks — Eliminated
Kings — Eliminated

JACK OR KAAPO? THE DRAFT LOTTERY PICTURE
Senators — 18.5 percent*
Kings — 13.5 percent
Devils — 11.5 percent
Sabres — 9.5 percent
Red Wings — 8.5 percent
Rangers — 7.5 percent
Oilers — 6.5 percent
Ducks– 6 percent
Canucks — 5 percent
Flyers — 3.5 percent
Wild — 3 percent
Blackhawks — 2.5 percent
Panthers — 2 percent
Coyotes — 1.5 percent
Canadiens — 1 percent
(*COL owns OTT’s 2019 first-round pick)

ART ROSS RACE
Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning — 126 points
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers — 116 points
Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks — 107 points
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers — 104 points
Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins — 100 points

ROCKET RICHARD RACE
Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals — 51 goals
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers — 49 goals
John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs — 47 goals
Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning — 44 goals
Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks — 42 goals

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

Winners and losers of the 2019 NHL trade deadline

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Well, that was fun. The 2019 NHL trade deadline is over and 20 deals involving 32 players were made on Monday featuring plenty of buyers and sellers. There were a number of of trades in the weeks and days leading up to the deadline, which has some teams strengthening for a Stanley Cup run and others eyeing the future as they hope they are in the midst of building a contender.

As the dust settles, let’s take a look at some winners and losers from the 2019 NHL trade deadline.

WINNER: Columbus Blue Jackets fans

Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky have given no indication they’ll re-sign and made it clear they want to test the market on July 1 as unrestricted free agents. So with that news GM Jarmo Kekalainen didn’t throw away the season and deal them off for futures. He kept them and loaded up to make a playoff run. Adding Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel in separate deals with the Senators showed that they’re all-in to make some noise in the postseason. They also picked up Adam McQuaid for depth on defense and Keith Kinkaid for some insurance in net. For a franchise that’s yet to win a playoff round, good for them. The value in creating some excitement in the market is greater than whatever futures some team would throw their way in exchange for a couple of rentals.

Blue Jackets power up for playoff run by adding Matt Duchene
Blue Jackets load up with Dzingel

LOSER: Columbus’ 2019 NHL draft plans

With Kekalainen’s flurry of moves before the deadline, the Blue Jackets currently only own two picks in June’s NHL draft: Round 3 and Round 7 (originally Calgary’s). They could add to that if they end up dealing Panarin’s and/or Bobrovsky’s negotiating rights, but for now the prospect cupboard won’t see many additions when the league gathers in Vancouver. They also don’t have a second- or third-round pick in 2020.

WINNER: Nashville’s power play

The Predators’ power play has been atrocious this season, checking in at an NHL-worst 12.6 percent. The unit was at 21.6 percent last season and in the high teens from 2015-17. Simmonds’ addition will help that and the team’s second line. Since 2013, the 30-year-old forward has scored 74 power play goals and recorded 119 points with the man advantage.

Predators go bold at trade deadline with Simmonds, Granlund

LOSER: Jim Rutherford

The Penguins’ blue line through the 2020-21 season will see Jack Johnson and Erik Gudbranson eating $7.25M in cap space. Not ideal! (Johnson is signed through 2022-23.) You knew they were going to try and add a defenseman with the Brian Dumoulin injury, but…

As our own Adam Gretz pointed out, trading Pearson is also another in long line of decisions by GM Jim Rutherford that he’s undone within a season. Pearson joins Antti Niemi, Ryan Reaves, Matt Hunwick, Jamie Oleksiak, Riley Sheahan, Derick Brassard, and Derek Grant as being acquired only to be shipped out again.

Rutherford has already brought in Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann to aid up front. But with the deadline in the rear-view mirror now, are the Penguins that much better to contend in the East?

Gudbranson – Pearson trade looks ugly for Penguins — on paper

WINNER: Nick Jensen

Not only does the 28-year-old blue liner go from one of the worst teams in the league to the defending Stanley Cup champions who are chasing a Metropolitan Division title, neither side wasted any time extending their relationship. Not long as the trade was announced, the Capitals signed Jensen to a four-year, $10M extension.

Capitals hope to land another defensive gem in Jensen

LOSER: Edmonton Oilers

No one wanted any of the pieces they may have been dangling, leaving interim GM Keith Gretzky with lots of work to do in the off-season.

Edmonton media has been talking up Alex Chiasson lately for some reason, thinking he could fetch a draft pick. The 28-year-old forward has one goal since Christmas and is still shooting 19.8 percent, which shows you how bad the regression monster has been affecting him since starting the season off strong with 16 goals in his first 30 games.

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WINNER AND LOSER: Ottawa Senators

We knew that Pierre Dorion was going to be active and in sell mode with Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel and Mark Stone on the market. Now that all three are gone, the Senators brought in a combined package of:

NHL players: Oscar Lindberg, Anthony Duclair
Prospects: Vitaly Abramoff, Jonathan Davidsson, Erik Brannstrom
Draft picks: Two 2020 second-round picks, 2021 second-round pick, 2019 and 2020 conditional picks

The Stone deal leaves something to be desired, especially since Dorion was unable to get a first-round pick for him. 

These moves, however, leave the Senators with a little over $35M in cap space for next season, per Cap Friendly. They won’t spend to the limit just yet, but they will have to at least get to the projected floor of $58M, so they’ll be active before next season. Maybe that includes taking on a dead contract like, say, David Clarkson’s, which is a $5.25M cap hit through the end of the 2019-20 season.

While the draft picks and prospects could turn into something good in the future, right now there is no confidence from the fan base that the future holds anything positive for the team. The inability to extend Duchene, Dzingel or Stone did not sit well with fans and adds to their lack of belief that Eugene Melnyk will spearhead some huge spending spree in a couple of years as he said he plans to do.

Watching that trio leave has to make you wonder what will happen when it’s time for Thomas Chabot and Brady Tkachuk to re-sign?

“We’re rebuilding and hoping to bring a Stanley Cup very soon,” said Melnyk on Monday after the Stone trade. “That’s what we’re trying to do.”

WINNER: Mark Stone

Much like Jensen, Stone moves from a bottom team to a Cup contender and gets an extension to boot. Because of tagging issues, the contract won’t be official until March 1, but it will be eight years with an average annual value of $9.5M and a full no-move clause. Stone told TSN that an “ownership commitment to winning” was a big reason why he agreed to the extension with Vegas, which should tell you everything about why he never ended up putting pen to paper on a deal with the Senators.

Golden Knights win Mark Stone sweepstakes, agree to extension

LOSER: Those hoping for a big move from the Flames

As the Jets, Predators, Sharks, and Golden Knights loaded up, the Flames stayed quiet, only making a depth move on defense by picking up Oscar Fantenberg from the Kings and a conditional fourth-round pick in 2020. GM Brad Treliving had a maximum price in mind that he would pay to add a big name like Mark Stone. What Ottawa and other sellers were looking for was apparently too rich for his blood.

Treliving wasn’t going to part with prospect Juuso Valimaki, and is pleased to go into battle with his current lineup.

“Today, there is no mourning,” said Treliving Monday afternoon. “The hearse is not driving by, and none of us are climbing in. We’re pretty excited about our team. The fact that we wake up and I’m going to have a cold beer right now and still have guys like Valimaki in our organization, that’s a pretty good day. “So let’s all put it in perspective. We have a good hockey team.”

WINNER: Eric Staal

Owner of a modified no-trade clause, Staal said repeatedly he did not want to leave Minnesota. He wasn’t dealt and will be staying for at least two more seasons after inking a two-year, $6.5M extension.

LOSER: Mats Zuccarello/Dallas Stars

This has nothing to do with the deal, as it was a good addition by GM Jim Nill. But the Stars only got to enjoy Zuccarello for barely 40 minutes before he blocked a shot and suffered a broken arm that will keep him out of the lineup for at least four weeks.

Knowing their newest acquisition is out at least a month, Nill didn’t go out and add any pieces on Monday, making it a quiet day in Big D.

Stars land Zuccarello
Zuccarello injured during Stars debut, out at least four weeks

WINNER: Conditional draft picks

Since Oct. 1, 20 conditional picks have been part of deals. The New York Rangers lead the way with four conditional picks acquired, while the Senators picked up three and Los Angeles received two.

LOSER: Henrik Lundqvist

He took the trade of Zuccarello very hard, as shown after Sunday’s game:

We see it every trade deadline when beloved players move on and their former teams really feel the hole they’re leaving behind. Also, the trade deadline affects more than just the players:

WINNER: New York Rangers

The rebuild could take a turn this summer as GM Jeff Gorton will have five picks in the first two rounds of the 2019 draft to play with. He has said he’ll try to use those to acquire players who can step in and make an impact next season. Right now they could have over $20M in cap space this off-season.

Rangers’ sell-off continues as Kevin Hayes heads to Jets

WINNER: Thomas Vanek

For the first time in three years “Mr. Trade Deadline” stays put after the Red Wings did not deal the 35-year-old forward. Vanek has been dealt on three different NHL trade deadlines in his career.

LOSER: Jimmy Howard

There wasn’t much of a goalie market this trade deadline, and Howard, who can walk as a UFA this summer, stayed put. The price Detroit was seeking was reportedly high, but now GM Ken Holland will turn his sights into trying to re-sign the 34-year-old.

————

Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

Pro Hockey Talk’s 2019 NHL Trade Deadline Tracker

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The PHT NHL Trade Deadline Tracker is your one-stop shop for all completed deals. The 2019 NHL trade deadline is Monday, Feb. 25 at 3 p.m. ET.

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Alex Broadhurst
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Future considerations

Feb. 25, 2019
Pittsburgh Penguins:
Chris Wideman
Florida Panthers:
Jean-Sebastien Dea

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Nic Petan
Toronto Maple Leafs:
Par Lindholm

Feb. 25, 2019
Vancouver Canucks:
Linus Karlsson
San Jose Sharks:
Jonathan Dahlen

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Bogdan Kiselevich
Florida Panthers:
 2021 seventh-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Nathan Beaulieu
Buffalo Sabres:
2019 sixth-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Pittsburgh Penguins:
Erik Gudbranson
Vancouver Canucks:
Tanner Pearson

Feb. 25, 2019
Winnipeg Jets:
Matt Hendricks
Minnesota Wild:
 2020 seventh-round pick

[Winners and losers of the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline]

Feb. 25, 2019
Anaheim Ducks: 2019 sixth-round pick
St. Louis Blues:
Michael Del Zotto

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Boston Bruins:
Marcus Johansson
New Jersey Devils:
2019 second-round pick, 2020 fourth-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Philadelphia Flyers:
Ryan Hartman, conditional 2020 fourth-round pick
Nashville Predators:
Wayne Simmonds

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Vegas Golden Knights: Mark Stone, Tobias Lindberg
Ottawa Senators: Erik Brannstrom, Oscar Lindberg, 2020 second-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Minnesota Wild:
Kevin Fiala
Nashville Predators:
Mikael Granlund

Feb. 25, 2019
Los Angeles Kings: Conditional 2020 fourth-round pick
Calgary Flames:
Oscar Fantenberg

Feb. 25, 2019
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Adam McQuaid
New York Rangers:
Julius Bergman, 2019 fourth-round pick, 2019 seventh-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Colorado Avalanche:
Derick Brassard, 2020 conditional sixth-round pick
Florida Panthers:
2020 third-round pick

Feb. 25, 2019
Florida Panthers:
Cliff Pu, future considerations
Carolina Hurricanes:
Tomas Jurco, future considerations

Feb. 25, 2019
Montreal Canadiens: Jordan Weal
Arizona Coyotes:
Michael Chaput

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
New York Rangers:
Brendan Lemieux, 2019 first-round pick, 2022 conditional fourth-round pick
Winnipeg Jets:
 Kevin Hayes

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
New Jersey Devils:
2022 fifth-round pick
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Keith Kinkaid

Feb. 25, 2019
Anaheim Ducks: Patrick Sieloff
Ottawa Senators:
Brian Gibbons

Feb. 25, 2019 (PHT analysis)
San Jose Sharks: Gustav Nyquist
Detroit Red Wings: 2019 second-round pick, 2020 conditional third-round pick

Feb. 24, 2019
Toronto Maple Leafs: Nic Baptiste
Nashville Predators: Future considerations

Feb. 24, 2019
Los Angeles Kings: Matheson Iacopelli
Blackhawks: Spencer Watson

Feb. 24, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Buffalo Sabres: Brandon Montour
Anaheim Ducks: Brendan Guhle, conditional 2019 first-round pick

Feb. 23, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Ryan Dzingel, 2019 seventh-round pick
Ottawa Senators: Anthony Duclair, 2020 second-round pick, 2021 second-round pick

Feb. 23, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Dallas Stars:
Mats Zuccarello
New York Rangers: Conditional picks – 2019 second-round pick, 2020 third-round pick. Both can become first-round picks.

Feb. 23, 2019
New Jersey Devils
: Connor Carrick, 2019 third-round pick
Dallas Stars: Ben Lovejoy

Feb. 22, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Washington Capitals: Nick Jensen, 2019 fifth-round pick
Detroit Red Wings: Madison Bowey, 2020 second-round pick

Feb. 22, 2019
Florida Panthers:
Vincent Praplan
San Jose Sharks: 
Future considerations

Feb. 22, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Columbus Blue Jackets: Matt Duchene, Julius Bergman
Ottawa Senators:
Vitaly Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, 2019 lottery-protected first-round pick, 2020 conditional first-round pick.

Feb. 21, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Washington Capitals:
Carl Hagelin
Los Angeles Kings: 2019 third-round pick, 2020 conditional sixth-round pick. LA retains 50 percent of Hagelin’s cap hit.

Feb. 20, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Boston Bruins:
Charlie Coyle
Minnesota Wild:
Ryan Donato, conditional 2019 fifth-round pick

Feb. 18, 2019
New York Rangers: Darren Raddysh
Chicago Blackhawks:
Peter Holland

Feb. 16, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Edmonton Oilers: Sam Gagner
Vancouver Canucks: 
Ryan Spooner

Feb. 15, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Philadelphia Flyers:
Cam Talbot
Edmonton Oilers:
Anthony Stolarz

Feb. 12, 2019
New York Rangers: 2020 seventh-round pick
Vancouver Canucks: 
Marek Mazanec

Feb. 11, 2019
Columbus Blue Jackets: conditional seventh-round 2019 pick
Pittsburgh Penguins: Blake Siebenaler

Feb. 11, 2019
Montreal Canadiens: Nate Thompson, 2019 fifth-round pick
Los Angeles Kings: 2019 fourth-round pick

Feb. 9, 2019 (PHT Analysis)
Philadelphia Flyers: Dave Schlemko, Byron Froese
Montreal Canadiens: Dale Weise, Christian Folin

Feb. 8, 2019
Arizona Coyotes: Emil Pettersson
Nashville Predators: Laurent Dauphin, Adam Helewka

Feb. 6, 2019
Nashville Predators:
Cody McLeod
New York Rangers:
2020 seventh-round pick

Feb. 6, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Nashville Predators
: Brian Boyle
New Jersey Devils: 2019 second-round pick

Feb. 6, 2019
Ottawa Senators: Jean-Christophe Beaudin
Colorado Avalanche: Max McCormick

Feb. 1, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Pittsburgh Penguins: Nick Bjugstad, Jared McCann
Florida Panthers: Derick Brassard, Riley Sheahan, 2019 second-round picks and two 2019 fourth-round picks

Jan. 30, 2019
New Jersey Devils
: Ryan Murphy
Minnesota Wild: Michael Kapla

Jan. 28, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Toronto Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin
Los Angeles Kings: Carl Grundstrom, Sean Durzi, 2019 first-round pick

Jan. 28, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Pittsburgh Penguins
: 2019 fourth-round pick
Dallas Stars: Jamie Oleksiak

Jan. 24, 2019
Chicago Blackhawks: Dominik Kubalik
Los Angeles Kings: 2019 fifth-round pick

Jan. 21, 2019
Minnesota Wild
: Brad Hunt, 2019 sixth-round pick
Vegas Golden Knights: 2019 conditional fifth-round pick

Jan. 17, 2019
Buffalo Sabres
: Taylor Leier
Philadelphia Flyers: Justin Bailey

Jan. 17, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Minnesota Wild
: Victor Rask
Carolina Hurricanes: Nino Niederreiter

Jan. 16, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Anaheim Ducks
: Michael Del Zotto
Vancouver Canucks: Luke Schenn, 2020 seventh-round pick

Jan. 16, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Anaheim Ducks
: Derek Grant
Pittsburgh Penguins: Joseph Blandisi

Jan. 16, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Minnesota Wild
: Pontus Aberg
Anaheim Ducks: Justin Kloos

Jan. 14, 2019
New York Rangers
: Connor Brickley
Nashville Predators: Cole Schneider

Jan. 14, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Anaheim Ducks
: Devin Shore
Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

Jan. 11, 2019
Chicago Blackhawks
: Slater Koekkoek, 2019 fifth-round pick
Tampa Bay Lightning: Jan Rutta, 2019 seventh-round pick

Jan. 11, 2019 (PHT analysis)
Arizona Coyotes: Jordan Weal
Philadelphia Flyers: 2019 sixth-round pick

Jan. 11, 2019
Ottawa Senators: Cody Goloubef
Boston Bruins: Paul Carey

Jan. 11, 2019
Ottawa Senators
: Morgan Klimchuk
Toronto Maple Leafs: Gabriel Gagne

Jan. 3, 2019
Winnipeg Jets: Jimmy Oligny
Vegas Golden Knights: Futures

Jan. 3, 2019
St. Louis Blues
: Jared Coreau
Anaheim Ducks: Futures

Jan. 2, 2019
Ottawa Senators:
Anders Nilsson, Darren Archibald
Vancouver Canucks: Mike McKenna, Tom Pyatt, 2019 sixth-round pick

Trade: Blue Jackets load up with Dzingel; Senators load up on picks

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The Columbus Blue Jackets are eliminating any doubts that they’re going all-in this season. Meanwhile, the Ottawa Senators are going all-out … as in, trading everyone out.

One day after the Blue Jackets sent a bunch of assets to Ottawa for Matt Duchene, the two teams made another significant swap on Saturday. The Blue Jackets landed another Senators center in Ryan Dzingel, while picks are the biggest takeaways for the Senators.

The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman are among those who reported these full trade terms, which were later confirmed:

Blue Jackets receive: Ryan Dzingel, Calgary Flames’ 2019 seventh-round pick.

Senators get: Anthony Duclair, 2020 second-rounder, 2021 second-rounder.

Dzingel’s strange mix

Honestly, my intentional reaction was that the Senators won big here, and that Dzingel’s numbers have been pumped up by playing on a team that needed all the offensive help it can get. Yet, at the same time, it’s probably fair to excuse some of the minuses with Dzingel’s defensive game because the Senators have to be rough on most player’s possession numbers, right? Maybe?

That wicked shot might be the most curious thing about Dzingel, by the way.

Dzingel’s already generated a career-high of 44 points in just 57 games, blowing away last year’s previous career-high of 41 points in 79 contests. When you consider the disparity in those numbers, and Dzingel’s 16.5 shooting percentage this season, you’d think that every sign points to this being a mirage.

To some extent, maybe that’s true.

But, interestingly, Dzingel’s career shooting percentage is very high, too, at 14.9. That’s not through a small sample size, either, as it’s over 247 regular-season games.

With the 26-year-old (turning 27 on March 9) headed for free agency, Dzingel will have every incentive to keep his hot streak going. With that in mind, the two second-round picks is still a steep price, but maybe worth it for Columbus?

Dzingel’s soon-to-expire cap hit is at $1.8 million.

Duclair and a bunch of picks

Speaking of potentially misleading hot years, Duclair hasn’t been able to follow up an outstanding 2015-16 season, when he scored 20 goals and 44 points while riding a 19 shooting percentage alongside Max Domi in Arizona.

Duclair feels like a throw-in for this trade, but maybe he can at least work his way to earn a regular NHL gig? Ottawa marks his fifth team already.

He hasn’t always received steady opportunities in recent years, and really landed in John Tortorella’s doghouse as the 2018-19 season went along.

Ottawa has every reason to let Duclair show what he can do, assuming they bring the 23-year-old back. (He’s a pending RFA.)

But, no doubt, this trade is about Ottawa loading up on picks. Ottawa’s already stacked a ton of them between this Dzingel trade, the Duchene swap on Friday, and the Erik Karlsson trade before the season. The various conditions make it downright dizzying to try to keep track of all of those picks, honestly, and things could get even more complicated if the Senators trade Mark Stone as well.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Another Blue Jackets trade deadline riddle involves Duchene, Wennberg

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The Columbus Blue Jackets face the sort of conundrums that would stump “Good Will Hunting,” and that messy blackboard isn’t just filled with equations about Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Although, come to think of it, maybe the Blue Jackets might find a solution for this Panarin proof in an indirect way.

In discussing Columbus possibly going after Matt Duchene in the latest edition of 31 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman brought up a name many of us haven’t really pondered in a while: Alexander Wennberg. Specifically, Friedman wrote that he believes “Columbus’s offer for Duchene screams Alexander Wennberg as part of it.”

That’s a fascinating observation. Also fascinating, if frustrating, is the question: “What is going on with Wennberg?”

The 24-year-old is suffering through a downright disastrous 2018-19 season.

Yes, Wennberg’s clearly more of a passer, but two goals (none at even-strength) is still troubling, and totaling 23 points in 58 games is disappointing. After averaging at least 18:08 TOI during the past two seasons, Wennberg’s slipped to third-line center in Columbus, logging just 15:46 minutes per night, the second-worst average of his career.

The telltale sign of a miserable season is seen in his atrocious 3.6 shooting percentage, more than anything else.

It’s becoming almost a rule to wave NHL GMs off with the motto: “Simply don’t move prominent young players when their shooting percentages are way down,” but Wennberg’s situation is especially confounding. Allow me to rummage through the many ins and outs.

  • It’s not just bad puck luck.

For a passer such as Wennberg, it can be helpful to consider on-ice shooting percentage, not just his personal shooting luck. While Wennberg’ 8.3 on-ice shooting percentage is a big drop from last year’s career-high of 10.6, it’s not that far off from his career average of 8.9 percent.

When considering bounces, it’s tougher to let a player off the hook when they’re not creating a ton of them.

Wennberg hasn’t even generated a shot on goal per game this season, only managing 55 in 58 games, marking a career-low of .95 SOG per contest. He’s never been a volume-shooter, yet perhaps opposing defenders are so convinced that he won’t shoot, that it may also affect his ability to set up linemates? On Feb. 3, The Athletic’s Tom Reed wondered how much longer Columbus could wait through Wennberg’s offensive struggles (sub required), featuring this bummer of a quote from Wennberg.

“You gotta create your own luck and right now I don’t have any,” Wennberg said.

  • Opportunities

On one hand, Wennberg’s ice time is down. If John Tortorella has permanently soured on the Swede, then that’s a big concern.

Yet, it’s not as though Wennberg’s totally buried in the lineup. While he’s generally slotting in at 3C, Wennberg’s most frequent even-strength wingers have been Anthony Duclair and Oliver Bjorkstrand, according to Natural Stat Trick. Duclair’s speed and Bjorkstrand’s goal-scoring potential give Wennberg something to work with, if nothing else.

He’s also been on the second power-play unit, and it’s a group with reasonable talent, considering its secondary stature. You could do worse than lining up with the likes of Seth Jones, Bjorkstrand, Boone Jenner, and Josh Andersen, as Wennberg is currently slated to do.

It’s not a perfect situation, but Wennberg’s also not being healthy scratched and glued to the bench, either.

  • A few other notes

This in-depth breakdown from Jackets Cannon compares Wennberg to some other players like Max Domi, Dylan Larkin, and Jonathan Drouin, pointing to a potential future turnaround. At the same time, that profile also brings into question one area where Wennberg may still shine: his two-way game.

A few days ago, The Athletic’s Alison Lukan did point out ($) that Wennberg does bring decent under-the-radar attributes to the table, such as his ability to initiate an effective forecheck, and his acumen when it comes to exiting the defensive zone.

Columbus has seen better days from Wennberg, after all. He managed 40 points in just 69 games in 2015-16, then rattled off career-highs of 13 goals, 46 assists, and 59 points in 80 games in 2016-17 (the only season he’s exceeded 69 GP so far in an NHL season). There was a time when it seemed like Wennberg was on an upward trajectory, although those feelings have faded.

  • The Matt Duchene solution?

Trading for Duchene becomes immensely fascinating in at least one scenario: what if Columbus moves on from Panarin, but trades and then extends Duchene, instead?

On one hand, Panarin makes a bigger impact than Duchene by various measures, particularly if you zoom out beyond what’s been a fairly hot contract year for Duchene. On the other, it seems clear that Panarin is unlikely to return, so Columbus could avoid losing Panarin for nothing (except $6M in cap space) by pivoting to Duchene. Instead of the giant collapse that would be going from losing Panarin for nothing but that cap space, they could instead take the more palatable step back to Duchene, likely at a substantial increase from that $6M per year.

If Duchene was on board to sign an extension with Columbus, trading away Wennberg and his $4.9M cap hit through 2022-23 would make sense even if Wennberg does bounce back considerably from this slump. The Blue Jackets could also recoup some of the costs in landing Duchene if they decided to move on from Panarin.

Interestingly, there are quite a few ways that could work out. Maybe the Blue Jackets find a way to keep both Panarin and Duchene for a big push in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Perhaps they decide that renting Duchene and moving on from Wennberg would be the best move?

***

Consider one other amusing wrinkle to this situation. Reports indicate that Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen wasn’t on board with potential trade partners discussing possible extensions with Artemi Panarin (at least earlier, such as during the offseason, and before the trade deadline heated up). Now, it’s tougher to gauge the value of a potential Duchene-to-Columbus trade without knowing if the speedy center would sign an extension.

Whether a Duchene trade is likely or not, the Blue Jackets need to really dig to find out if Wennberg’s really worth keeping around, or if it’s best for everyone if he has a “change of scenery” — if some other team would even be on board with buying low on the playmaker.

“When or if to move Wennberg?” is not the toughest question Kekalainen faces, but it’s consistent with the Panarin and Bob conundrums in that it’s pretty complicated.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.