Getty

How worried should Avs be about five-game skid?

2 Comments

The biggest story of the Winnipeg Jets’ 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche was the dominant play of Blake Wheeler, who generated a career-high five points. (Stay tuned for more on Wheeler in tonight’s Buzzer.)

Five was a sobering number for the Avalanche beyond Wheeler’s tremendous game, though. With this loss, the Avalanche have now dropped five straight defeats, slipping to 7-6-3.

Once again, it seems like the Avalanche are mirroring their Eastern Conference cousins (and long-ago Stanley Cup Final opponents) in the New Jersey Devils.

Both teams rode MVP-quality performances from Taylor Hall and Nathan MacKinnon, managing to shock the hockey world with appearances in the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Each squad were expected to come back down to reality in 2018-19, yet stormed off to strong starts. And now it seems like gravity is pulling each team down.

[Read up about New Jersey’s tough stretch here.]

Perhaps taking a deeper look at the Avalanche’s season will give us sense of how worried they should be.

The top line and everyone else

While the deadly trio of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog failed to generate a point in Friday’s loss to the Jets, this bumpy stretch isn’t on them. Granted, Wheeler did accomplish the rare task of making MacKinnon look silly in collecting his 400th assist:

Regardless, it’s telling that there are only two other skaters who are in the double digits in points (Tyson Barrie with 12, Alexander Kerfoot with 11), and Barrie is a defenseman who is frequently on the ice with that big three.

Breaking up that top line might be too much to ask of Jared Bednar, but one way or another, the Avalanche could really use more secondary scoring.

Goalies becoming human

The Avalanche’s hot start didn’t just come down to that outrageous first line.

Semyon Varlamov began his contract year on a tear, only allowing 13 goals during eight October appearances, sporting an elite .950 save percentage. While Varlamov made some tough stops before ultimately succumbing to the Jets’ deadly attack on Friday, allowing four goals against Winnipeg means that he’s given up 13 goals in three November contests, the same total he yielded during that unsustainable start.

Speaking of unsustainable, quite a few numbers seemed to indicate that the Avalanche were due for regression. Heading into this loss, Natural Stat Trick listed Colorado’s 9.6 shooting percentage at even-strength as the sixth-highest in the NHL, while their PDO (a stat that’s helpful shorthand for luck) ranking fifth at 1.021.

Calming context

To be fair to the Avalanche, they haven’t been getting routed in the same way that the Devils have.

Even Friday’s 5-2 loss was close at times, as Colorado decreased Winnipeg’s leads to 2-1 and 3-2 in the third period before the Jets pulled away.

Four of this young team’s five consecutive losses have come on the road, and the Avalanche have played eight of their last 11 games away from home. Their opponents haven’t been cupcakes, either. While the Flames and Wild have talent but have been hit-or-miss, Colorado fell to a surprisingly feisty Canucks squad, lost to the red-hot Predators, and then those imposing Jets.

A harsher critic would wave away all of those details as mere excuses, and it’s not such a tough schedule that the Avs deserve a free pass. Nonetheless, it provides some context and solidifies the notion that Colorado shouldn’t get too bent out of shape about this stretch.

***

Long story short, the Avalanche weren’t as strong as their 6-1-2 start indicated, nor are they as rudderless as a five-game losing streak might imply.

The truth is somewhere in the middle, and that should be fine for a very young, fast team that played way beyond expectations last season (not to mention a franchise that owns the Ottawa Senators’ potentially lucrative 2019 first-round pick).

Now, will the Avalanche be competitive enough to earn a playoff spot despite playing in the loaded Central Division and the unfriendly West? Check back after a few more cold and hot streaks.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Sissons’ hat trick, coach’s challenges lift Predators to another win

A Colton Sissons hat trick and two successful coach’s challenges were the difference for the Nashville Predators on Wednesday night as they picked up a 4-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche, winning their fourth game in a row and improving to a league-best 12-3-0 to start the season.

Sissons was the offensive star for the Predators as he not only ended what had been a 13-game goal drought, but recorded the second regular season hat trick of his career.

Ryan Hartman added an empty net goal in the final minutes to help put the game away for the Predators.

While the final score ended up looking a little lopsided, this game could have been a lot closer had it not been for the NHL’s replay system that allowed Nashville to challenge two potential Colorado goals that were ultimately overturned.

Early in the second period Ian Cole thought he scored what would have been his second goal of the season only to have it overturned after replay showed that the puck had barely exited the zone as defender Samuel Girard tried to keep it in.

In the third period, and with the Predators leading 3-1, Colin Wilson thought he scored against his former team to cut the deficit to a single goal, only to again have the Predators challenge for offsides and again have the call overturned.

Avalanche forward Alexander Kerfoot was offside as Cole attempted to dump the puck in to the zone on the rush.

The two challenges by Nashville were bold calls by the coaching staff because had they not been overturned they would have not only given up the goal, but also been assessed a delay of game penalty for the failed offside challenge. Either way they were potential game-changing calls, and they both just so happened to go the Predators’ way.

When the Avalanche weren’t having goals overturned by review, Predators goalie Pekka Rinne was playing another spectacular game by turning aside 24 of the 25 shots he faced. In his first eight appearances in 2018-19 the reigning Vezina Trophy winner has a .948 save percentage on the season.

After a great start that saw the Avalanche go 6-1-2 in their first nine games they have now lost five of their past six games and each of the past four.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

WATCH LIVE: Predators visit Avalanche on Wednesday Night Hockey

Getty

NBC’s coverage of the 2018-19 NHL season continues with Wednesday night’s matchup between the Nashville Predators and Colorado Avalanche at 10 p.m. ET. You can watch the game online and on the NBC Sports App by clicking here.

This week’s Wednesday Night Hockey doubleheader wraps up with a rematch from the first-round of the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs when the Nashville Predators visit the Colorado Avalanche.

It is sure to be an exciting matchup between two top Central Division teams as the Predators roll into the game owning the league’s best points percentage (22 points in 14 game) and best goal differential (plus-17). After reaching the Stanley Cup Final two years ago and then coming back a year ago to win the Presidents’ Trophy the Predators are once again on track to be one of the best teams in the NHL and a top-tier Stanley Cup contender.

The Avalanche, meanwhile, are doing their best to show that their surprise playoff appearance (after completing an incredible one-year turnaround in the standings) was no fluke. They enter play on Wednesday in one of the two Wild Card spots in the Western Conference and just one point back of Minnesota for the second spot in the Central Division.

They boast the NHL’s third-best goal differential (plus-12) and one of the NHL’s top lines with the trio of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog leading the way. Rantanen entered Wednesday as the league’s leading scorer with 24 points, two points ahead of Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid. MacKinnon is third in the scoring race with 21 points while Landeskog is 12th with 18 total points. His 11 goals are tied for the second most.

Puck drop in Colorado is 10 p.m. ET.

[WATCH LIVE – 10 P.M. ET – NBCSN]

What: Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche
Where: Pepsi Center
When: Wednesday, November 7th, 10 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Live stream: You can watch the Predators-Avalanche stream on NBC Sports’ live stream page and the NBC Sports app.

PROJECTED LINEUPS

PREDATORS

Filip ForsbergRyan JohansenRyan Hartman
Calle JarnkrokKyle TurrisCraig Smith
Frederick GaudreauNick BoninoKevin Fiala
Zac RinaldoColton SissonsMiikka Salomaki

Roman JosiRyan Ellis
Mattias EkholmP.K. Subban
Anthony BitettoYannick Weber

Starting Goalie: Pekka Rinne

AVALANCHE
Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
Sheldon Dries – Alexander KerfootColin Wilson
Matt NietoCarl SoderbergMatt Calvert
Gabriel BourqueVladislav KamenevMarko Dano

Patrik NemethErik Johnson
Ian ColeSamuel Girard
Nikita ZadorovTyson Barrie

Starting goalie: Semyon Varlamov

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

WATCH LIVE: Lightning visit Avalanche on NBCSN

Getty

The NBCSN Wednesday night doubleheader continues with the Colorado Avalanche hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning at 9:30 p.m. ET. You can watch that game online by clicking here

The Lightning are no strangers to red-hot scoring lines, as they’ve deployed quite a few of their own.

There was Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and a lucky guy (usually Vladislav Namestnikov or J.T. Miller) last season. Kucherov also headlined “The Triplets” with Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson.

Heading into Wednesday’s game, Stamkos and Kucherov are on different lines, yet the Lightning remain one of the most impressive teams in the NHL. Perhaps those past experiences – not to mention strong defensemen like Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh – will help them slow down an absolutely torrid Avs trio of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog?

That would be an impressive feat, as no one else has really had much luck doing that so far this season.

[MORE: Preview / Rantanen a driving force / MacKinnon among the best]

What: Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche
Where: Pepsi Center
When: Wednesday, October 24th, 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Live stream: You can watch the Avs-Lightning stream on NBC Sports’ live stream page and the NBC Sports app.

Projected Lineups

LIGHTNING

Yanni GourdeBrayden Point — Steven Stamkos

Ondrej Palat — Tyler Johnson — Nikita Kucherov

Alex KillornAnthony CirelliMathieu Joseph

J.T. Miller — Cedric PaquetteRyan Callahan

Victor Hedman — Dan Girardi

Ryan McDonagh — Anton Stralman

Braydon CoburnMikhail Sergachev

Starting goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy

AVALANCHE

Gabriel Landeskog — Nathan MacKinnon — Mikko Rantanen

Sven AndrighettoAlexander KerfootColin Wilson

Matt NietoCarl SoderbergMatt Calvert

Marko DanoTyson JostGabriel Bourque

Samuel GirardErik Johnson

Ian ColeTyson Barrie

Nikita ZadorovPatrik Nemeth

Starting goalie: Semyon Varlamov

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Under Pressure: Nathan MacKinnon

Getty Images

Each day in the month of August we’ll be examining a different NHL team — from looking back at last season to discussing a player under pressure to focusing on a player coming off a breakthrough year to asking questions about the future. Today we look at the Colorado Avalanche.

Usually when we look at players that are “under pressure” heading into a season we focus on players coming off of a down year, or a coach on the hot seat, or a goalie that needs to prove themselves and carry a team, or a player going for a new contract.

It is not usually a player coming off of an MVP-caliber season the way Nathan MacKinnon is in Colorado. Even so, we are still going to take a look at him for this section because it seems like now that he had the season he had in 2017-18 the level of expectation for him going forward is going to be at an entirely new level.

That, too, is a form of pressure.

Especially when the Avalanche’s success and turnaround this past season was largely dependent on MacKinnon’s performance.

[Avalanche Day: Looking back at 2017-18 | Building Off Breakthrough]

This past season he finished fifth in the scoring race with 97 points. His 1.31 points per game were second best in the NHL. He recorded at least three points in a game 13 different times, the second highest total in the league (behind only Connor McDavid). He had a direct in hand 38 percent of the team’s goals during the regular season and then he was great in their first-round playoff race with six points (including three goals) against the Nashville Predators. The difference in the Avalanche’s performance with him on the ice versus when he was not on the ice was striking. As he went, so went the team.

MacKinnon’s career has followed an interesting path to this point. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2013-14 and put together a sensational rookie year that saw him finish with 24 goals and 63 points as an 18-year-old, playing a significant role in what had been a bad Avalanche team the year before return to the playoffs. His play didn’t really regress after that season, but he also didn’t take the significant leap that was expected, instead settling in as a 20-goal, 50-point player. Very good, but not quite a superstar level. That leap finally happened this past season and ended with him finishing second in the MVP voting behind Taylor Hall.

The question now becomes can he do it — or at least something close to that — again, because that might be what the Avalanche need to get back in the playoffs.

The Avalanche a nice trio of impact forwards in MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog up front, as well as some intriguing young players on this roster (Tyson Jost, Alexander Kerfoot, Samuel Girard). Even with that core in place it is still a team with very suspect depth and question marks on the blue line and in goal. Their success or failure will depend largely on how the players at the top (specifically MacKinnon and Rantanen) perform. It is not entirely fair to those players to expect them to carry that much of the load, but that is the situation the current roster probably puts them in.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.