Each day in the month of August we’ll be examining a different NHL team — from looking back at last season to discussing a player under pressure to focusing on a player coming off a breakthrough year to asking questions about the future. Today we look at the Dallas Stars.
In the case of Radek Faksa, you can probably argue this as a bit of a cheat, as there’s a case to be made that his breakthrough happened in 2016-17. His numbers, both in the simplest terms and if you get into the woods with analytics, are quite comparable. In some cases, he took a step back last season.
That’s actually the point the Stars should consider, though: there’s a chance that Faksa could have taken yet another step in 2017-18. If Faksa and the Stars want to go further, they might both benefit from taking a long, hard look at how they’re using the 13th pick of the 2012 NHL Draft.
To put things mildly, Faksa was used in a heavy defensive role these past two seasons, but that went to an extreme during Ken Hitchcock’s lone season (version 2.0) with Dallas. Faksa began a whopping 66.6 percent of his shifts in the defensive zone, up from an already hearty 59.3 percent the previous year. The 24-year-old also topped all Stars forwards by averaging 1:59 in penalty kill time per game.
It’s no surprise, then, that Faksa received more underground Selke hype than ever.
To summarize what all of these numbers mean: Despite constantly starting shifts in his own zone against tough competition, Faksa is astonishingly good at stopping the other team from producing shots and scoring goals. Opposing teams simply don’t generate offense when they have to go through Faksa’s line to make it happen.
That’s good stuff, and if you tend to fall down rabbit holes in Hockey Twitter (meekly raises hand), you’ve probably heard some praise – maybe couched in “give my guy attention” – for Faksa during the past year or so.
The tantalizing question, however, is: will Jim Montgomery do a better job getting the most out of Faksa?
It’s understandable that Ken Hitchcock would want to lean so heavily on Faksa. As progressive as Hitch is, he’s probably a bit more rooted in players specializing with certain roles, hence Faksa experiencing an even more extreme defensive burden.
Still, for a Stars team that’s desperately needed help outside of an all-world top line, it’s baffling that Faksa wasn’t given more opportunities.
Most directly, it’s head-scratching stuff that Faksa went from averaging 16:10 TOI per game in 2016-17 to just 15:16 in 2017-18. It’s impressive that Faksa has been able to score 30+ points these past seasons, considering context, but especially so as he scored 17 goals last season.
It’s pretty much impossible – for me, anyway – to avoid a best-case scenario comparison, then: what if the Stars make Radek Faksa their answer to Sean Couturier?
Now, it’s true that Couturier still carried a considerable defensive workload in 2017-18, yet the Flyers frequently surrounded him with better teammates and also gave him way, way more ice time. For three seasons, Couturier had averaged about 18-and-a-half minutes per contest; last season, his ice time skyrocketed to 21:36 per game.
The Stars should absolutely experiment with different ways to get Faksa on the ice more often, ideally rewarding him for doing all of that dirty work by giving him better chances to score. While Faksa would probably struggle to land on Dallas’ top power play unit, it’s probably not outrageous to give him more than last season’s paltry average of 14 seconds of PP time per game.
For years, the Stars have failed to convert “winning the off-season” into regular-season and playoff successes.
Part of those failings can be chalked up to roster issues – they’ve rarely provided Benn, Seguin, and John Klingberg with strong supporting cast members – but you can also argue that the cooks on hand haven’t made the best use of the ingredients on hand.
It’s quite plausible that Faksa could be even better than the already-quite-effective defensive player he is. He’s managed to score in tough circumstances. Why not give him a chance to take off in 2018-19?
Here’s a hypothetical hockey scenario you won’t encounter very often: “What if the Dallas Stars didn’t drop the ball when Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn were dirt-cheap.”
Consider this. From 2013-14 (Seguin’s first season in Dallas) through 2016-17 (the final year of Jamie Benn’s second-most-recent contract), the Stars allocated just $5.25 million in cap space to Benn and a mere $5.75M to Seguin. You could very fairly argue that Benn and Seguin were worth $11M apiece during that span, yet for four seasons, the Stars essentially deployed them at a buy-one, get-one-free rate.
Despite those incredible bargains, the Stars missed the playoffs twice and only won one playoff series during those four seasons. They squandered another bargain Seguin season in 2017-18, too, as they missed the postseason once again.
From here, Nill touched on what should be some good advice for Seguin: he’s probably better off waiting to see if this team will finally put things together. Nill provided that comment when asked if an extension might happen before the season begins.
“I hope so. But I think I have mentioned from Day 1 that I don’t want people to panic if he is not signed when the season starts,” Nill said. “I think the biggest thing is we need to have a good season — get off to a good start. I hope he is signed by then, but I know if he isn’t, we’ll get a good year out of him and go from there. But like I said, I am hopeful we can get it done. We’ll have to see.”
Look, few would credibly question Seguin if he just decided to ink an extension this summer.
The threat of injuries makes an early extension very appealing, and the 26-year-old starring Star should make a bundle of money even if he leaves a healthy chunk on the table, which has to be a concern for a player who’s been sorely underpaid for his entire NHL career.
Seguin is presented with some undeniably relevant peripheral reasons to ink an extension beyond “wanting to swim in gold coins like Scrooge McDuck.” While the Stars have been disappointing during his stay relative to the ceiling many would picture, they have some fantastic supporting cast members, particularly Jamie Benn and John Klingberg. It’s almost certainly not lost on Seguin that Dallas features tax-related perks associated with “non-traditional hockey markets,” and also boasts a more easy-going media atmosphere than one he’d experience in, well, a “traditional hockey market.”
So don’t be surprised if he shrugs his shoulders and votes for the certainty and security that would come from a long-term contract.
It would be far more interesting if he waited things out, though, especially if Seguin values a chance at the Stanley Cup more than anything else. Let’s ponder some of the thoughts that might go through the splendidly talented forward’s head if he was assessing the Stars’ efforts and chances.
This isn’t exactly a “budget” situation – As great as Dallas has been at landing splashy trades and free agent signings, they’ve also made some big blunders. They’ve moved away from more modern-style defensemen (Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers), instead pursuing old-school types (Marc Methot, Roman Polak) who clash with the style that left opponents gasping for air during Dallas’ best moments. The struggles seem to continue regarding finding answers in net; Ben Bishop seems more stable than Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen, yet would the Stars be as excited to sign his risky deal in 2018 as they were merely in 2017?
So, yes, there’ve been some mistakes, but as much as the strikeouts sting, it’s better to swing for the fences than to walk away from possible solutions. It’d be far more dire if Seguin was pondering, say, the Senators’ outlook.
Seguin can confidently state that the Stars tried to leverage bargains like his deal, despite the lack of success. Some of those moves do work out, too, like the signing of Alex Radulov, so that would have to be a pretty big plus.
Testing out the new coach – Hey, it probably helps the Stars’ chances to move on from Ken Hitchcock. As wise as Hitch is, and even if he’s mellowed a bit with old age, he’d probably fall short of “players’ coach” status.
Jim Montgomery could end up being a taskmaster, too, yet there’s a strong chance he will – at minimum – lean toward a faster style, which would almost certainly appeal to a superbly talented player such as Seguin.
Some reasons to be optimistic – The Stars have a few players who might nudge them toward the sort of supporting cast that can finally give them sorely missing depth.
That’s true if Miro Heiskanen can make good on his potential as the third pick of the 2017 NHL Draft. Valeri Nichushkin‘s been a big disappointment, yet with the goal posts moved to a different position during his next Stars tour, he’d be a great find if he can merely fit in nicely on a prominent line. Some other young players may flourish under Montgomery, with Julius Honka standing out as a plausible beneficiary.
(There’s also the Erik Karlsson possibility, though those rumblings have died down for not just the Stars, but everyone else. Then again, the notion that the Stars are willing to spend money to make money might come back into focus there.)
Joyless division – I’d venture a guess that, as tuned-in as NHL players are these days, Tyler Seguin probably doesn’t factor the toughness of the Central Division much – or at all – into his future decision. Such a thought would likely be silly when considering a long-term contract, as things change fast in sports.
That said, the ruggedness of the Central Division might hurt his viewpoint of Dallas’ chances as a contender if Seguin decided to really wait things out. The Stars could conceivably make big gains in 2018-19 and still fizzle out in the postseason simply because just about everyone’s likely to struggle against the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets. It’s conceivable that the Stars leap yet still end up with the third seed, fall in the first round despite a good effort, and still seem disappointing.
If that happens and Seguin hasn’t signed an extension, well, who knows? We could see a John Tavares-type situation, even in an arguably superior situation than the one the Islanders offered.
Ultimately, this could end up being a pretty simple situation for Seguin. Maybe he has a sweet spot in mind for term and/or AAV, or merely just some no-trade-type provisions. It would be silly to lampoon him for any of that, especially when he’s cashing checks, playing on what should be a competitive team, and not shivering during the winter.
On the other hand, the Stars haven’t enjoyed a ton of success since braining the Bruins in that Seguin trade, and the second pick of the 2010 NHL Draft might just want to explore the free agent market.
Summer summary: A last place finish in the Central Division meant a very early start to the off-season for general manager Stan Bowman. There was a desire for some change, but their salary cap situation prevented any big free agent pursuits. Earlier this month, Marian Hossa’s contract was off-loaded to the Arizona Coyotes along with Vinnie Hinostroza and Jordan Oesterle. As part of the package coming to Chicago, Marcus Kruger, who had been dealt from Carolina to Arizona in May, returns to the Windy City after a season to forget with the Hurricanes in 2017-18.
The draft would bring Swedish defenseman Adam Boqvist at No. 8 overall and free agency would see Bowman acquire some depth in all three areas of the ice. Veteran forward Chris Kunitz joined on a one-year deal; defenseman Brandon Manning signed on for two seasons; and Corey Crawford will have a new backup in net with the addition of Cam Ward.
More to do? Bowman didn’t move Hossa’s $5.25 million cap hit to stand pat. Bolstering the blue line and adding a winger could certainly be in the plans, if the price is right, of course. Some rumored names that may be of interest include Justin Faulk and Jeff Skinner of the Hurricanes and Max Pacioretty of the Canadiens. Given how many deals the Hurricanes and Blackhawks have completed over the years, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see something else happen this summer between the two teams.
Where they stand? The Blackhawks’ summer feels like it deserves an “Incomplete” grade knowing that Bowman probably isn’t finished reshaping his roster. A lot of their success in 2018-19 depends on the health of Corey Crawford, who was a Vezina Trophy candidate before an upper-body injury suffered just before Christmas ended his season. The team has said they’re expecting him to be ready for training camp, but there’s so much of a mystery around his injury that it’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Free agency didn’t see any earth-shaking moves as GM Joe Sakic brought in Matt Calvert and Ian Cole on three-year deals. Both players are familiar with head coach Jared Bednar after having played for him in the AHL.
More to do? Sakic still has $14 million in cap space to play with, per Cap Friendly, but they appear to be done unless something interesting comes on the horizon. The Avs had a great bounce-back year, lead by a MVP performance out of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, one of the league’s most underrated young players.
Where they stand? Ready for their youth to provide support. Outside of Mackinnon, Rantanen and Landeskog, Alex Kerfloot had a solid rookie season, and the expectations are that Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher can build off good years to aid their stars. The health of Varlamov, who’s entering the final year of his deal, is a hanging question, but Grubauer showed last season that he’s capable of taking on the reins of the No. 1 job.
More to do? Nill has to be weary about his cap space going forward seeing as how Tyler Seguin is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer and an extension for the 26-year-old won’t come cheap.
Jason Spezza enters the final year of his deal carrying a $7.5 million cap hit and declining production. There was talk of him potentially being a buy out candidate, but it looks like he’s staying with the hope his shooting percentage can go back to normal.
Where they stand? It’s a big season for the Stars. They’ve facedexpectations the last few years and fallen short. Another disappointing season and it could be a change in the GMs chair that happens next spring. A lack of big additions to the roster after losing out in the John Tavares sweepstakes means Nill is betting on improvements from many of his players.
If Fenton can sell high on Staal, who’s coming off a 42-goal year, that will go a long way to alleviating a bit of a cap crunch the Wild are in. They currently have nearly $2 million in cap space left, per Cap Friendly, so any big move(s) would have to see money moving out.
Where they stand? Three straight first round exits and a new boss means head coach Bruce Boudreau is probably feeling some heat for 2018-19. The Wild were middle of the pack offensively and defensively last season, and the health of Parise and Suter are of big concerns on both ends of the ice.
Summer summary: You won’t see much change on the Predators’ roster come October. GM David Poile spent the summer re-stocking their AHL side, retaining Juuse Saros and Ryan Hartman and bringing back old friend Dan Hamhuis.
Other than Mike Fisher retiring again, there are no notable losses on the roster. Given the strength of the Predators, there wasn’t a need for Poile to made a bold move this summer. Heck, he usually saves that kind of thing for middle of the season. He still has plenty of cap room (about $8 million) and could find himself working with defenseman Ryan Ellis on an extension at some point this season.
More to do? Yeah, there’s money to spend, if needed, but after adding Hamhuis this week, the blue line is set and after re-signing Hartman they appear good up front as well. Plus, a full season of Eeli Tolvanen, who played only three games after coming over from Finland in the spring, will be like a new addition.
Where they stand? As Stanley Cup contenders, as they were a year ago. Poile’s never been one to shy away from making a big move where he sees the chance to strengthen an area. There doesn’t seem to be big any holes at the moment, and we’re probably going to be in for another battle between the Predators and Jets for the division crown and Western Conference supremacy.
Carter Hutton, who posted a .936 even strength save percentage in 32 appearances behind Jake Allen last season, left for a three-year deal in Buffalo. Replacing him, Armstrong went out and signed veteran Chad Johnson to a one-year deal.
More to do? With very little cap space, there’s not much to be done unless the right offer comes Armstrong’s way. The Blues were one of the NHL’s lowest scoring teams last season (226 goals for), which is where Bozak, Perron and O’Reilly come in.
Where they stand? The Blues missed out on the playoffs by a point last season. But as he did the previous season with Kevin Shattenkirk, Armstrong saw the signs and traded a star player with an expiring contract (Paul Stastny) and acquired assets for the future. Improvements were made, but it will all boil down to what kind of season Allen has in net. A .918 and .919 even strength save percentage in each of his last two seasons will put the pressure on him to help, not hinder, the team this coming season.
Summer summary: It was a summer about retaining talent, not adding for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff. His list of restricted free agents was long and he managed to keep his big names in Winnipeg, while one — Josh Morrissey — is still waiting for a new deal.
More to do? As mentioned, Morrissey’s the final big name left unsigned, but like their division rivals in Nashville, it’ll be a familiar roster on the ice in October — one that didn’t require much change given how strong it is. Cheveldayoff would certainly like to gain some clarity on Trouba’s future at some point this season to determine a path to either keep him in the fold or flip him for something that could either help them for a Cup run this coming spring or for the 2019-20 season.
Where they stand? There’s no reason to believe they won’t again be challenging to represent the West in the Cup Final. The roster is stacked and Hellebuyck took huge strides last season in showing he’s a true No. 1 in the NHL. As long as they remain healthy, it should be another successful season in the ‘Peg.
As people set off fireworks* and grill untold tons of meats today, it’s possible that the NHL’s grand tradition of explosive Fourth of July blockbusters could continue with an Erik Karlsson trade.
In 2013, the Dallas Stars pulled off quite the Declaration of Competence by fleecing the Boston Bruins for Tyler Seguin, a move the Dallas Morning News and others can chronicle on a yearly basis. Perhaps it’s fitting, then, that the Stars have been tabbed as the latest frontrunners to land Karlsson’s services … for whatever that’s worth.
Talks on going between Dallas and Senators … Senators focusing on Miro Heiskanen third overall to Dallas last year, one source suggested. Dallas would rather give up Julius Honka, 14th overall in 2014. Played 42 games with Stars last season. Stay tuned.
It’s difficult to gauge how likely Karlsson-to-Dallas really is. On the bright side, it’s opened the door for people to drop in some early analysis. One of the most interesting questions revolves around whether it would be worth it for the Stars to risk including Heiskanen (an intriguing Finnish defenseman who was the third pick in 2017) in the trade.
There are prospects, then there are 18 year olds who dominate adults for 26 minutes a night. Under no circumstances do you give up Heiskanen for anything. He's as untouchable as Benn, Seguin, and Klingberg. https://t.co/PF8GgOoVZq
Both Karlsson and Klingberg are right-handed defensemen, which might inspire the Stars to primarily rotate them rather than put them on the ice at the same time if Karlsson lands in Dallas.
Of course, there could be exceptions. Landing Karlsson would force some shifting as far as Dallas’ power play goes, and it would almost be silly not to have both of them on the ice when the Stars empty their net trying to score a late goal in a game.
Yet even under typical alignments, the Stars would enjoy the blissful luxury of rarely icing a defense that doesn’t include one of them.
Over the years, it’s been frustrating to watch the Stars land big-time players like Tyler Seguin only to surround them with mediocre-to-bad supporting cast members. That’s been especially irritating on the blueline, as the Stars have seen more modern-style defensemen leave (examples: Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers) while adding sluggish types such as Marc Methot and Roman Polak.
It might not matter a whole lot if the Stars win the Karlsson sweepstakes.
While it would be better if Karlsson didn’t need to lug Methot around like he did in Ottawa, it’s not as if he isn’t experienced in carrying lesser defense partners. Consider the bewildering fact that, via Natural Stat Trick, Karlsson’s most frequent pairing was with Johnny Oduya. In 2017-18.
Simply put, few players can make the impact Karlsson can, as he isn’t just great … he can also log a ton of ice time, keeping less-great players on the bench more often.
Win now, and win later?
Here’s something that might sneak up on you: the core of the Stars is getting a little older.
Jamie Benn is 28, and there was at least mild concern that he was slowing down – by his standards – last season. Alex Radulov was great in his debut season with Dallas, yet he’s also 31. Ben Bishop is 31 too, and sometimes that’s a scary thought, as injuries have been an issue at times for the towering goalie. Recent Stars additions are largely at risk of suffering age-related decline (Methot is 33, Blake Comeau and Polak are both 32).
Karlsson, 28, remains in the meat of his prime and would push a strangely middling Stars roster to a higher level. Dallas can’t wait forever to climb the ranks.
One potentially brilliant impact could be that, in landing Karlsson, the Stars might entice Tyler Seguin to stick around.
Seguin, 26, sees his absurdly low $5.75M cap hit expire after 2018-19. He’d be a UFA if the Stars couldn’t convince him to sign an extension, and while Dallas has had its highs, it would be easy to see why he might want to leave for a clearer contender if the growing pains continue. After all, that would be his first chance to really choose his team after being drafted by Boston and traded to the Stars.
Putting Karlsson in the mix could really inspire Seguin to just sign an extension. Don’t forget that NHL players have a ton of incentive to extend deals compared to, say, NBA players, as the injury risk must be a greater concern.
Such a risk might be worth taking if the Stars remain as a “bubble team,” but a future with Karlsson and Ben along with the security of an extension might be too sweet a bargain to pass up.
(Now, naturally, it would be a tight squeeze to fit Seguin and Karlsson under the cap, yet such struggles are easily worth the mental gymnastics.)
Few people outside of the Stars and Senators organizations know how close a Karlsson deal might be.
Even so, it’s entertaining to ponder the potential of adding another, well, star to the Stars. We’ll find out if Karlsson’s destination is revealed during this American holiday or if the hockey world will be forced to speculate deeper into the summer.
Montgomery, who played 122 NHL games, including nine with the Stars, has spent the last five seasons coaching in the college ranks with the Denver Pioneers, leading them to two Frozen Fours and the 2017 national title. He told Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman in March that “it would have to be a perfect opportunity” for him to uproot his family and leave his situation in Colorado.
The Stars are coming off a second straight season that ended without a playoff berth, but boast a roster with plenty of talent like Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Alex Radulov, Radek Faksa and John Klingberg. General manager Jim Nill will certainly be making more changes in the off-season, so Montgomery, who was also in the running for the New York Rangers’ job, can likely expect a refreshed roster when training camp opens in September.
“The process gives us a foundation of what our house should look like. If we tidy up those areas of our house, people are going to like what our house looks like on the ice.”
Montgomery likes “simple and boring.” He feels focusing on bigger things can make a team play nervously and not at their best, which is why he’ll likely be bringing “the process” to Dallas with him.
Inspired by Shawn Walsh, his head coach while at the University of Maine, the checklist for success in a game, as Montgomery wrote on The Coaches’ Site in 2016, includes winning 60 percent of face-offs, blocking shots, giving up at most three odd-man rushes, dishing out 50 hits, winning special teams and net front battles, and staying disciplined when it comes to committing penalties.
“If we’re four out of seven in a game, we’re probably going to win that game,” he wrote. “And if we’ve got five or six, the games actually become lopsided in our favour.”
The Stars won 52.5 percent of their face-offs, blocked 1,272 shots, delivered 1,861 hits, scored on 19.3 percent of their man advantages and killed off 80.8 percent of power plays faced last season. Implementing a new system and installing a new culture and approach will take time for any new head coach, but Montgomery’s Denver teams got better as their seasons went on. That kind of improvement is sorely needed in Dallas.