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Ryan Murray’s odd tale continues in Columbus

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Ryan Murray accepted the Columbus Blue Jackets’ qualifying offer today, so he’ll register a $2.825 million cap hit for 2018-19. It says a lot about his middling development that this counts as such a minor transaction, and arguably a poor value.

Murray would have had to be a pretty sensational presence for his on-ice play to be more interesting than his draft-day backstory. There’s still time – albeit not much – for him to change that narrative, but as of today, Murray’s “What if?” scenarios bring more intrigue than his potential to boost the Columbus Blue Jackets.

It’s not just that Murray, 24, was the second pick of the 2012 NHL Draft.

Heck, it’s not just that the top of that 2012 NHL Draft was remarkably star-crossed.*

No, the most interesting thing is what could have happened.

To jog your memory, in pursuing the chance to select Murray, then-Islanders GM Garth Snow channeled Mike Ditka mortgaging basically an entire Saints draft year to land Ricky Williams. As Elliotte Friedman noted for a CBC piece that’s especially interesting to read with hindsight, the offer to move up – most likely for Murray – was as such:

Islanders sought: Second pick, which would have been Murray.

Blue Jackets would have received: Fourth pick (Islanders selected Griffin Reinhart), plus picks 34, 65, 103, 125, 155 and 185.

Wild stuff, right? As it turns out, the Islanders ended up selecting two players in 2012 who’ve seen NHL action so far: Reinhart, and Adam Pelech, who they chose in the third round (65th overall).

Of course, the most significant takeaway for the Islanders came from trading Reinhart for the picks that became Mathew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier, which is another post (if not a “30 for 30”) for another day.

The Blue Jackets still ended up enjoying a better draft than the Islanders, nabbing intriguing goalie Joonas Korpisalo (third round, 62nd pick) and solid winger Josh Anderson (fourth round, 95th pick). All things considered, they might have found another gem if they landed that bucket of picks from Snow.

Murray’s also a “What if?” question because his early career was derailed by injuries, and we’ll never know how his development might have turned out if he was healthier.

But, as is, the 24-year-old’s a pretty marginal NHL defenseman. His best years were his rookie campaign (21 points in 66 games in 2013-14) and 2015-16, when he scored a career-high 25 points and logged an average of 22:51 TOI.

During the past two seasons, he’s been just under 18-and-a-half minutes per game, scoring 11 and 12 points. His possession stats were pretty appalling in 2016-17 and quite bad last season.

Murray’s draft pedigree probably makes him lucky to accept Columbus’ qualifying offer of blank, but it’s not all bad. It’s likely that he’ll bring similar value to the Blue Jackets as they may have received from Jack Johnson, judging from metrics such as CJ Turturo’s comparison tool (which uses Corey Sznajder’s painstaking entry/exit data).

Not exactly … inspiring.

That said, it’s not outrageous to imagine Murray being worth another shot. The one-year term limits the risk, and while he’s not likely to drop jaws with his skills, his puck-moving profile at least falls in line with what works best in the modern NHL.

Far from spectacular stuff, but hey, the guy drafted before him will be plying his trade in the KHL next season, so it could be worse.

* – To review:

1. Nail Yakupov has, uh, not been too great.

2. Ryan Murray – turns out he wasn’t worth a whole draft, even a bad one?

3. Alex Galchenyuk – a good player who was seemingly condemned for years by Montreal, and eventually traded.

4. Griffin Reinhart – Eventually a kindred spirit for Murray, in that he’s most interesting for the picks he netted the Islanders (and as one of many cruel punchlines regarding Peter Chiarelli and the Islanders).

Things started getting a lot better from 5 on, as Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm, Mathew Dumba, and Jacob Trouba are quality NHL defensemen.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Latest Pacioretty rumors seem ominous for Habs

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Times like these make it tough to give Marc Bergevin and the Montreal Canadiens the benefit of the doubt.

On one hand, the Max Pacioretty situation isn’t necessarily an easy one. The Habs masterfully signed him to a deal that carries a scant $4.5 million cap hit, but that bargain expires after 2018-19, when “Patches” will already be 30. There are very legitimate arguments for why Montreal would be better off trading him rather than signing him to a contract extension, even if you plug your nose and ignore the Dumpster fire that is their current situation.

[It’s time for Montreal to rebuild.]

It’s tough not to look at recent reports as worrisome omens that they won’t be able to patch the Pacioretty situation up, especially when you consider the ominous-to-error scenarios that surrounded ill-fated trades involving P.K. Subban, Mikhail Sergachev, and Alex Galchenyuk.

The parallels between Pacioretty’s uncomfortable situation and those other mishaps comes to mind after a report surfaced from Marc Andre Godin of The Athletic (sub required). Godin cites “an NHL source” who said that the Canadiens told Pacioretty that (gulp):

A) “There will be no contract negotiation” regarding an extension.

B) Bergevin intends to trade Pacioretty “as soon as possible.”

Uh oh.

One of the fascinating elements of Godin’s report is that his source indicates that Pacioretty has been at least open-minded about signing an extension with Montreal. That would happen even though, as a captain and even before that, the American-born winger often served as a scapegoat for his team’s failings.

This despite Pacioretty’s contract ranking among the best steals outside of rookie deals.

You’d understand if such experiences might make Pacioretty the one pushing for a move, rather than Bergevin, but the implication (or spin?) is that the shoe’s on the other foot.

Considering how things shook out with Subban and Galchenyuk, it sure fits into a narrative about many skill players’ efforts seemingly being taken for granted.

Circling back to a previous point, it’s not necessarily wrong for the Canadiens to determine that they’d be better off moving on from a winger who will be 30 when his next contract kicks in.

Considering that Pacioretty was savagely underpaid and went so far as to change his agent during draft weekend, it’s clear that it means a lot to him to get fair value on his next deal. There were more than a few rumors that failed extension talks scuttled a possible trade to the Los Angeles Kings before that change in reps happened.

So this is challenging where moving Subban and Galchenyuk (both locked up for decent term, with Subban signed longer and Galchenyuk being quite affordable) felt like unforced errors. The unforced error here, though, would come down to word leaking that Montreal reportedly isn’t even seeking an extension.

Simply put, Bergevin and the Canadiens badly need to “win” a trade. If even cabin-dwelling, Bermuda-shirt wearing execs know full well that the Habs are about as eager to trade Pacioretty as the Ottawa Senators are desperate to move Erik Karlsson‘s expiring contract, then Bergevin faces an even steeper challenge to land acceptable value for Pacioretty.

[Habs gradually bleed away talent under Bergevin.]

And, again, recent history doesn’t smile on Bergevin’s aptitude in that area. Yet, if he doesn’t get something done, there’s even more risk that Pacioretty will leave the Canadiens for nothing but cap space and an empty roster spot, much like John Tavares did with the Islanders. (Of course, the Islanders did what they could to keep Tavares, while the perception could end up being that the Habs are basically shoving Pacioretty out the door.)

***

Yes, there are certain advantages that come with sticking by a GM, even one who’s struggling.

Sometimes that executive shows that patience pays off, such as Kevin Cheveldayoff with the Jets. Maybe just as crucially, you don’t have a new guy coming into town to “put his own stamp” on a team by merely throwing away useful players. If you look at the NHL’s least successful franchises, you’ll often see front offices frequently thrown into disarray thanks to changes at the top.

On the other hand, the Canadiens could end up being a cautionary tale for the Canucks, Oilers, and other teams who’ve stood by polarizing GMs.

Instead of bringing in fresh eyes after seeing Montreal suffer bad-to-awful asset management (consider Shea Weber‘s outlook, Carey Price‘s scary contract, and the Karl Alzner blunder if you need more examples), the Habs stuck with Bergevin heading into this off-season. They’ll need some luck for Galchenyuk – Max Domi not to look like another one for the “L” column, and this Pacioretty situation seems foreboding at best right now.

It’s getting to the point where, if Bergevin gets canned, the next GM might need years to dig Montreal out of this hole.

Bergevin’s surprised us many times before, although the gawking has mostly been akin to rubbernecking at an accident lately. Sometimes it feels like the noted prankster is actually playing an elaborate trick on the Habs franchise, but maybe he’ll finally win a trade, against all odds, by landing an excellent return for Pacioretty?

Perhaps, but at the moment, it feels like we’re heading toward yet another big mistake.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Six NHL teams that made themselves worse this summer (so far)

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A good rule of thumb in sports is that if you are not doing anything to make your team better, you are actively making it worse.

Earlier this week we looked at six teams that have done the most to make themselves better this summer (so far) and it’s only natural to take a look the other side of that spectrum with a few teams that have managed, one way or another, to make themselves worse.

We still have a few months to go before the season begins so none of these rosters are complete or final and there is still time for all of them to find ways to improve.

Just consider this as an offseason progress report through the draft and the initial free agency signing period where the biggest moves tend to get made.

1. New York Islanders — The New York Islanders hired the reigning Stanley Cup winning coach and a Hall of Fame, three-time Stanley Cup champion general manager and none of it is going to matter in the short-term.

John Tavares is gone. They lost Calvin de Haan. They acquired a bunch of fourth liners to go with the rest of their fourth-liners and are paying the entire group a ton of money. Robin Lehner should be a little bit of an upgrade in net, and they still have Mathew Barzal to build around, but you can not replace John Tavares with Leo Komarov, Matt Martin and Valterri Filppula and come away looking better.

Losing Tavares stinks, and given the circumstances there probably was not much else they could have done to keep him from going to the Maple Leafs, but that doesn’t mean you have to compound the problem by making all of the other corresponding roster moves.

2. Ottawa Senators — What is really scary here for the Senators is the fact they have not even traded Erik Karlsson yet.

This might be the worst situation of any team in the NHL given everything that is happening with this organization, on and off the ice.

They absolutely had to trade Mike Hoffman but even that made them look bad because they ended up getting a worse return for him than the team they traded him to did. When Karlsson is sent out this might be an early contender for worst team in hockey.

3. Montreal Canadiens — You can’t really blame them for Shea Weber being injured and missing the next five-to-six months following surgery.

You can blame them for trading P.K. Subban for an older player with a worse contract whose career already has a ton of miles on it and was likely to start breaking down physically before that contract expired.

You can also blame them for fumbling Alex Galchenyuk‘s career and then trading him, one-for-one, for a player that doesn’t address their biggest issue (goal-scoring) and has scored just 18 goals over his past 163 games. By comparison, Galchenyuk scored 19 this past season and the only time over the past four years he scored less was when he scored 17 in 2016-17 … in only 60 games.

They also brought back Tomas Plekanec on a one-year contract after he wasn’t particularly good for them a year ago and is now one year older.

It is going to be a lonely year for Carey Price, especially if they finally complete a Max Pacioretty trade.

4. Vancouver Canucks — I just … I just do not get it. I just do not get what is happening here or what the plan is or how the Canucks plan to get better and rebuild this team back into something that is worth watching. There is nothing wrong with adding Jay Beagle or Antoine Roussel to your team in a bottom-six role if you are contending team because they could probably help out and be useful in such a role.

But why — WHY!? — if you are the Vancouver Canucks, a team that has not made the playoffs in three years and has won fewer games than every team in the NHL (Vegas excluded) during that stretch, do you need to not only sign them, but sign them to matching four-year contracts?!

Do they necessarily make the Canucks worse? Probably not, because it’s not like the Canucks’ bottom six last year wasn’t a disaster, but how do long-term contracts to bottom-six players make the long-term situation here any better?

Combine that with the fact that Henrik and Daniel Sedin (still productive players a year ago) are retired and the fact that Brandon Sutter is probably going to have to take on an increased role as a result and it just looks like another bleak season on the horizon in Vancouver.

5. Chicago Blackhawks — The Blackhawks’ biggest issue in 2017-18 was goaltending thanks to the combination of Corey Crawford missing most of the season while none of his replacements were up to the challenge of filling that spot. As the 2018-19 season draws near we still have no real concrete update on Crawford’s status as he recovers form his mystery “upper-body injury” and their approach to improving the depth behind him was to sign, quite literally, the least productive goalie in the NHL (at least among goalies that have received regular or semi-regular playing time) over the past six years.

Chris Kunitz might still have a little something left in the tank as a depth player and the price is certainly right on him, but the addition of Ward and the uncertainty around Crawford is scary.

They have been mentioned as possible landing spot for Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Justin Faulk, and that would be a great way to improve a defense that has rapidly declined in recent years. Whether or not they can get it done remains to be seen, but the roster as constructed (as of this moment) looks similar to the one that disappointed a year ago.

6. Pittsburgh Penguins — With all due respect to Jim Rutherford, Mike Sullivan, and Sergei Gonchar and everything they have accomplished over the past three years I am going to need to see something from Jack Johnson to prove he will not drag their defense down the way he has literally dragged down every defense he has played on throughout his career.

Matt Cullen was an incredible depth player on their past two Stanley Cup winning teams, is by all accounts a great locker room presence, and costs next to nothing against the salary cap. That is all great for the Penguins. But he is also going to turn 42 years old this season and father time eventually comes for everybody. You could argue that it started to get the best of Cullen in 2017-18 when the Minnesota Wild were absolutely caved in possession-wise when Cullen was on the ice. Are they really better than they were at the end of the season, even when taking into account the likelihood that Derick Brassard has more to offer than he showed in the playoffs? Not convinced.

Rutherford’s tenure in Pittsburgh has been a healthy mix of brilliance and head-scratching decisions. You can not argue with two championships in four years. But that does not mean he is above criticism or second-guessing because just last summer he had an offseason that made the roster worse and resulted in him jettisoning every player he acquired within a year. This summer so far does not look much better.

At the same time, also not convinced that he does not have another blockbuster up his sleeve that will turn the look of the offseason around. That is just how it goes with Trader Jim.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Time for Canadiens to embrace rebuild

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The Montreal Canadiens were a colossal disappointment in 2017-18. After winning the Atlantic Division two years ago, many expected them to at least make it back to the playoffs, but that didn’t happen. Now, it seems like the team has quietly embraced a different path.

Heading into last year, the Habs were trying to be good. There was no rebuild, reset, or whatever you want to call it. That’s what made the year such a disaster. But based on the offseason the Canadiens have had, it looks like this is going to be a rebuild after all.

GM Marc Bergevin wasn’t willing to use that word when addressing the media on Sunday, but there’s no denying that this is the situation the organization is in right now. The team clearly wasn’t good enough last year and it didn’t get a whole lot better this summer. Sure, they swapped Alex Galchenyuk for Max Domi, they added Joel Armia and Xavier Ouellet, but those aren’t moves that’ll put them over the top.

If anything, the fact that they decided to eat Steve Mason‘s cap hit in the trade they made with Winnipeg last week shows that they’re willing to spend cap dollars to acquire draft picks and young players.

This is totally the right decision for the franchise. They have too many holes to fill to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. They need a top four left-handed defenseman, they need a number one and number two center, and they could use some added scoring punch on the wings, too. But don’t give management too much credit for going in this direction because they simply had no choice.

They clearly wanted a chance to pitch John Tavares, but he wasn’t interested in hearing from them. They checked in with Paul Stastny, but that didn’t work out either, so here we are. They’ve got cap space, but there’s no one to give it to.

On a positive note, the Canadiens have addressed their long-term center needs by drafting Ryan Poehling in 2017 and Jesperi Kotkaniemi in 2018. Those players are likely a couple of years away, so there’s no rush for the Canadiens to be good right now.

Many have suggested that this isn’t a rebuild or re-tool until they get rid of Carey Price and Shea Weber, but you can still rebuild with veterans. Surround the young players on the roster with quality players that can lead through their experience and preparation.

Also, that doesn’t mean that those players can’t be traded a year or two from now.

The next few years should be interesting in Montreal. With most teams in the division seemingly getting better, it appears as though these next few seasons will be pretty lean for Habs nation, but that might not be such a bad thing in the long run.

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

Six NHL teams that improved the most this summer (so far)

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The start of the NHL season is still a few months away and there is obviously time for a lot to change between now and then when it comes to roster movement.

Erik Karlsson is still likely to get traded.

Artemi Panarin and Max Pacioretty could get traded.

There are still probably a handful of bargain bin free agents floating around that are capable of making some sort of an impact. There are still ways for the 31 general managers to improve their rosters before the puck drops on the 2018-19 regular season.

So while it is probably still a little early to officially determine the winners and losers of the offseason, we can at least take a look at which teams have done the most to improve themselves so far.

1. Toronto Maple Leafs — Uh, this one is pretty obvious, right? The Maple Leafs, already loaded with young impact talent at forward, added one of the best players in the league in John Tavares on the first day of free agency and that alone makes them better.

The Maple Leafs still have some work to do when it comes to solidifying their blue line, but you can’t fault them for adding Tavares. When you have a chance to add a player of that caliber (and it is rare that you do) you have to take advantage of that. Now they have a 1-2-3 center group of Auston Matthews, Tavares, and Nazem Kadri that is every bit as good as any other center trio in the league.

[Related: John Tavares signs with Maple Leafs]

2. Carolina Hurricanes — A lot here depends on whether or not they trade Jeff Skinner and/or Justin Faulk and what they might end up getting for them in return. Overall, though, this has been a strong offseason for the Hurricanes. Still not sold on their goaltending situation and until that gets fixed that is probably always going to be the thing that holds them back, but can Petr Mrazek really be any worse than Cam Ward was? And, hey, Scott Darling really has nowhere to go but up after a dismal debut with the team. So there is that.

The real encouraging news comes from the fact they were fortunate enough to address probably their second biggest need (after goaltending) when they selected goal-scoring sniper Andrei Svechnikov with the No. 2 overall pick.

Then they went and traded for Dougie Hamilton (full trade here), a borderline elite defenseman, to strengthen their blue line.

Hamilton led all defenseman in goals last season, is a dominant possession player, is still only 25 years old, and is signed for three more seasons at $5.75 million per season, — a steal of a price given his production. Hamilton’s addition perhaps could give them some added flexibility to maybe trade Faulk for help elsewhere, or perhaps even better, simply keep him and continue to build what could be an outstanding defense around those two, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce.

Update: The Hurricanes continued to strengthen their defense on Tuesday by signing Calvin de Haan, formerly of the New York Islanders, to a four-year, $18 million contract in free agency.

3. Philadelphia Flyers — The Flyers seem like an intriguing possibility for Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson, given need, cap space, and perhaps even assets that could be traded. Will it actually happen? Well, probably not, but it sure is fun to think about. As far as actual moves the team has made, bringing back James van Riemsdyk was a strong addition in free agency as it gives the Flyers some much-needed secondary scoring punch.

Once you got below Tavares on the list of available free agents van Riemsdyk was probably the best pure offensive name available on the market and still at an age where a long-term contract (in this case five years) wasn’t a massive gamble.

He has scored at least 27 goals in four of the past five seasons, a stretch where he has been one of the best goal-scorers (both at even-strength and in all situations) in the entire league.

[Related: Five logical landing spots for Erik Karlsson]

4. St. Louis Blues — The immediate reaction to the Blues’ acquisition of Ryan O'Reilly from the Buffalo Sabres seemed to be one of shock because of the number of pieces going the other way. But that is just it. It was a quantity over quality package, and when you break down the assets that the Blues gave up how many of them were actually something that they might truly miss?

Prospect Tage Thompson and the first-round pick are obviously the key pieces. But what else are the Blues going to miss?

Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka turned into contracts that the Blues probably no longer wanted, and a second-round pick (probably one in the second half of that round) is nothing more than a lottery ticket with low odds of turning into anything impactful. At the end of the day the Blues still got what was by far the best player in the trade.

They also added Tyler Bozak and David Perron in free agency, two players that will probably end up outproducing what Berglund and Sobotka provided (or will provde). The Blues were 24th in the NHL in goals this past season and needed to do something to address that. They absolutely did address it.

[Related: Blues acquire Ryan O’Reilly from Sabres]

5. Arizona Coyotes — There is reason for optimism in Arizona. They kept their franchise player in Oliver Ekman-Larsson on a long-term contract, they have some outstanding young talent starting to emerge from their farm system, and after a miserable first half of the 2017-18 season they finished on a very strong note by going 17-10-2 over their final 29 games (that would be a 101-point pace over 82 games). How much that carries over to this upcoming season obviously remains to be seen, but for the second offseason in a row they made some big additions.

They landed a potential impact player in Alex Galchenyuk in a trade with the Montreal Canadiens for Max Domi, and then dipped into the free agent market by bringing in speedster Michael Grabner. Grabner has his flaws, but his speed can cause havoc during 5-on-5 play and the penalty kill while they have more than enough salary cap space to handle his three-year, $10 million contract. Those additions, combined with what will hopefully be a full year from Antti Raanta and perhaps the development of Dylan Strome could make Arizona a surprise team in the Western Conference. Especially in a Pacific Division that is completely wide open.

6. Los Angeles Kings — The Kings didn’t really do much to make themselves younger or faster, and there are some questions as to how much he has left in the tank given his age and the fact he spent the past five years playing in Russia, but Ilya Kovalchuk gives the Kings the type of offensive weapon they desperately needed this past season. I still don’t love the Kings’ long-term outlook, but Kovalchuk could be a pretty big addition and makes them better in the short-term even if he is not the 40-goal, point-per-game player he was during his prime years in the NHL.

[ProHockeyTalk’s NHL 2018 free agency tracker]

More NHL Free agency:
Paul Stastny smart addition for Golden Knights
Kings add Kovalchuk on three-year contract
Penguins make it official with Jack Johnson, bring back Matt Cullen

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.