Matt Duchene’s monster season helping drive Predators’ playoff push

By Adam GretzMar 14, 2022, 4:22 PM EDT

John Russell, Getty Images

If the Nashville Predators were going to build on their surprising second half success from the 2020-21 regular season they were going to need two things to happen.

The obvious one was another big year from starting goalie Jusse Saros. Consider that box checked, as Saros is again one of the best goalies in the league.

They were also going to need some of their big-money players to play better than they had in recent seasons, specifically as it relates to Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen. That box is also checked, and in the case of Duchene, emphatically so.

Duchene has been one of the bigger surprises in the NHL this season with the way he has bounced back offensively and starting to produce the way Nashville hoped he would when they gave him a massive seven-year, $56 million contract in free agency prior to the 2019-20 season.

It was the latest in a long line of blockbuster additions that were supposed to help push Nashville over the top in the Western Conference only to ultimately disappoint. Kyle Turris was not that guy. Johansen has been hit and miss. And Duchene’s first two years were woefully underwhelming, resulting in just 19 goals and 55 total points in 104 games. He was one of the players (along with Johansen) that was left available to the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft, while it is not a stretch to believe that if Nashville could have found a taker for him they would have dumped that contract.

[NHL Power Rankings: Avalanche stay in first; Capitals, Predators improve]

In the end Seattle passed, Duchene remained in Nashville, and the Predators are being rewarded with one of the best seasons of his career.

As of Monday he already has 31 goals and 59 total points in 55 games, already surpassing his total offensive production from the previous two seasons combined. He is currently on track to do something no Predators player has ever done in franchise history — score 40 goals in a single season.

It is not empty offensive production, either. He has been one of their best possession and scoring chance drivers during 5-on-5 play, while his individual production has been second to only Filip Forsberg on a per 60 minute basis. He has been a legitimate top-line player at 5-on-5 this season and one of the most efficient power play players in the league. The latter has been a key development as the Predators have gone from one of the worst power play teams in the league (almost historically bad) to one of the best in the league this season.

The question for Nashville is whether or not this is what they can expect from Duchene going forward, or if this is just a random flash in the pan for a declining player.

But maybe we should have seen a bounce back coming for him this season. Even though his offensive production plummeted in his first two years, his underlying numbers were still extremely strong and among the best on the team. Few players on the roster (and especially forwards) did more to drive possession, expected goals, and chances than he did, while his ability to generate shots on goal had not really declined.

[Related: NHL Trade Deadline Primer: Filip Forsberg trade would not be easy]

What did decline was his finishing ability, at least based on percentages, as his all situations shooting percentage dropped all the way down to 9.6 and 8.2 percent respectively. Prior to the 2019-20 season he was consistently in the 12 to 18 percent range throughout his career in every stop, with an overall number of 13 percent. If he shoots at that level over the prior two years he adds another 10 goals to his total. If he shoots as high as 15 to 18 percent, which he had done multiple times in his career, it could have been another 14 to 18 goals. Things would have looked a lot different for him then.

This season all of the positive underlying numbers are still there, while the finishing numbers have increased significantly. While it is unlikely he continues to finish 19 percent of his shots, it is still more in line to the rest of his career than what he had done his first two years in Nashville. If nothing else, the fact the process behind his numbers is still strong is almost as encouraging as the results. He is playing well and getting rewarded for it. As are the Predators.

Combined with Saros’ continued excellence, another big year from Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg, and a bounce back from Ryan Johansen and the Predators suddenly have the fifth best points percentage in the Western Conference and look like a very formidable playoff team.

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Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Matthew Tkachuk returns from big hit in Stanley Cup Final, adds more playoff heroics

Associated PressJun 9, 2023, 9:59 AM EDT

James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Matthew Tkachuk was down, out briefly and then back with plenty of time to make a difference.

The Florida Panthers star left early in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final after a big hit from Vegas Golden Knights forward Keegan Kolesar, and he missed most of the first period and didn’t return immediately following intermission while being evaluated for a concussion. After looking as if he might be lost for the night, Tkachuk returned in the second and then came through with more of his now trademark playoff heroics.

Tkachuk scored the tying goal with 2:13 left in regulation, forcing overtime and giving the Panthers new life. He then provided the screen on Carter Verhaeghe‘s OT goal for a 3-2 victory that cut Florida’s series deficit to 2-1.

The 25-year-old said he knew he was coming back when he left the game, pulled by concussion spotters. That absence felt like a long time ago in the aftermath of another big win he was largely responsible for.

“I felt great – I feel great,” Tkachuk said. “I’m ready to go. Everybody’s excited that we’re in this position right now.”

Florida is in this position rather than facing elimination in Game 4 on Saturday thanks in large part to Tkachuk, who also set up Brandon Montour‘s goal that opened the scoring less than five minutes in.

Not long after, Tkachuk stumbled getting up after the hit from Kolesar and skated to the bench. He took a shift on Florida’s power play before going down the tunnel at the demand of concussion spotters mandated by NHL protocol.

At that point, there was zero clarity, even on the Florida bench.

“You’re not informed at all: It’s a complete shutdown,” coach Paul Maurice said. “You are completely in the dark on those. You don’t know when the player’s coming back. There’s not an update.”

Players insist they were not worried. Montour called it a no-brainer.

“He’s going to come back no matter what,” captain Aleksander Barkov said. “He’s really tough guy, and he’s going to battle through everything.”

Tkachuk rejoined his teammates on the bench a few minutes into the second. When he stepped back onto the ice for his first shift since leaving, fans cheered and chanted, “Chucky! Chucky!”

The crowd was even louder and threw rats when Tkachuk scored his biggest goal of many during this run to tie it. He didn’t get an assist on Verhaeghe’s goal but made it happen with a tape-to-tape pass in the neutral zone and was in front of Adin Hill when it happened.

Asked if he was happy Tkachuk returned, Maurice joked that it was after midnight.

“It was fine,” he quipped.

Panthers rally, top Golden Knights 3-2 in OT of Game 3 of Stanley Cup final

Associated PressJun 8, 2023, 11:48 PM EDT

Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports

SUNRISE, Fla. — Carter Verhaeghe scored 4:27 into overtime and the Florida Panthers pulled off some more postseason dramatics to beat the Vegas Golden Knights 3-2 in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final on Thursday night.

Matthew Tkachuk tied it with 2:13 left in the third period for the Panthers, who got the franchise’s first title-series game win in seven tries. Florida had to fend off a power play to start overtime, and Verhaeghe got the winner from the slot to get the Panthers within 2-1 in the series.

Game 4 is Saturday night.

Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 25 shots for Florida. Adin Hill made 20 saves for Vegas, but got beat on the only shot that came his way in overtime.

Brandon Montour also scored for Florida, which pulled Bobrovsky down 2-1 late in the third for the extra attacker and Tkachuk — who left for parts of the first and second periods after taking a big hit — made that move pay off when he tied the game.

His goal breathed life into a very nervous building. But the Panthers were furious — and replays showed they had a case — when Gustav Forsling was sent to the box with 11.2 seconds remaining for tripping. Florida survived that scare, and a few minutes later, had life in the series again.

The odds are still long, but the Panthers at least have a bit more statistical hope now. Of the previous 55 teams to trail 2-1 at this point of the Stanley Cup Final, 11 have actually rallied to hoist the trophy.

It’s improbable, sure. So are the Panthers, who were the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference, were down 3-1 to Boston in Round 1, were 133 seconds away from trailing this series 3-0 — and now have tons of reasons for optimism.

Jonathan Marchessault and Mark Stone each had power-play goals for Vegas.

Marchessault’s goal was his 13th in his last 13 playoff games, his fourth of this series and his third with the man advantage.

As if all that wasn’t enough, there was a little history in there as well. Vegas joined the 1980 New York Islanders as the only team with at least two power-play goals in three consecutive games in the Cup final. And Marchessault became the third player in the last 35 years to score in each of the first three games of a title series — joining Steve Yzerman in 1997 with Detroit and Jake Guentzel with Pittsburgh in 2017.

But it wasn’t enough to give Vegas a 3-0 lead in the series.

AROUND THE RINK

Before Thursday, Florida’s last home game in the title series was June 10, 1996, when Uwe Krupp scored in the third overtime for a 1-0 win as Colorado finished off a four-game sweep of the Panthers for the Cup. … Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was in the crowd, as was NBA great Charles Barkley, and former Dolphins star Dan Marino was the celebrity drummer to welcome the Panthers onto the ice.

Blackhawks, Athanasiou agree to 2-year, $8.5 million contract

Associated PressJun 8, 2023, 9:28 PM EDT

Sergei Belski/USA TODAY Sports

CHICAGO — The rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks locked in one of their top scorers, agreeing to a two-year, $8.5 million contract with forward Andreas Athanasiou on Thursday.

The 28-year-old Athanasiou tied for the team lead with 20 goals and ranked third with 40 points in his first season with Chicago. He matched career highs with four game-winning goals and three power-play goals.

The 6-foot-2, 190-pound Athanasiou has 125 goals and 111 assists in 459 games with the Detroit Red Wings (2015-20), Edmonton Oilers (2020), Los Angeles Kings (2020-22) and Blackhawks.

Chicago went 26-49-7 and finished last in the Central Division. The Blackhawks dealt Patrick Kane to the New York Rangers prior to the trade deadline and announced in April they would not re-sign Jonathan Toews, parting with two players who led them to Stanley Cups in 2010, 2013 and 2015.

Florida Panthers in familiar territory, backs to the wall once again down 0-2 in Stanley Cup Final

Associated PressJun 8, 2023, 12:42 AM EDT

Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sport

SUNRISE, Fla. — The Panthers need a miracle. Again.

Such is the story of Florida’s season, and it makes all the sense in the world that the plot has reappeared in the Stanley Cup Final. The Panthers needed a furious late-season push just to get into the playoffs as the lowest seed, then needed to win three consecutive elimination games to oust a record-setting Boston team in Round 1.

And now, another huge challenge awaits. Down 2-0 in the title series to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Panthers return to home ice on Thursday night looking to spark one more epic turnaround and get right back in the hunt for hockey’s biggest prize.

“Desperation and winning a game,” Florida veteran Marc Staal said. “We’ve approached every game in the playoffs the same way. We just try to take it – like everyone says – one at a time. But our backs are against the wall, obviously. We’re down by two. But we’re coming home. Love our team, love our resiliency. We’re going to go out and give our best effort and play our best game tomorrow and go from there.”

To say the odds are stacked high against the Panthers is a bit of an understatement.

– They’ve beaten Vegas in four of 12 all-time meetings between the franchises. And now they’ve got to beat them in four of the next five games to win the Cup.

– They’ve been outscored 10-2 in the last four periods against Vegas.

– Matthew Tkachuk has two more misconduct penalties (three) than he has points (one, a goal) in the series.

– Former Panthers Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith have as many goals so far in the series (four) as all the current Panthers do in the series, combined.

– Vegas hasn’t dropped four out of five games since going 1-2-2 to start a six-game road swing that began in late January.

– Teams that start a Stanley Cup Final with two home wins have won the Cup 38 times in 41 past instances.

But by now, Florida’s penchant for pulling off the improbable is well-known. Almost expected, really.

“Of course, we’ve had three really tough series,” Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov said. “Boston is a good example. We were down, we found a way, we started playing a little better, we found a way to come back and get out of there. Same thing here – we’ve just got to work a little harder, work a little smarter and find a way to win games.”

They’ve done it before.

There was the 6-0-1 stretch late in the season to hold off Pittsburgh for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot. The winning three elimination games against a Boston team that had the best regular season in NHL history in Round 1; Game 5 there was on the road in overtime, Game 6 required a rally late in the third period to erase a 5-4 deficit and Game 7 was another road OT victory. There was a four-overtime win at Carolina in the East final, setting the table for a sweep where the Panthers got four one-goal wins and allowed only six goals.

They’ve given up 12 goals in two games against Vegas. And it’s not all on Sergei Bobrovsky, either. Panthers coach Paul Maurice found it funny that it was considered a surprise to some that Bobrovsky – who carried Florida to the final round – will remain the starter for Game 3.

“He was outstanding in Game 1,” Maurice said. “And he was as good as our team was in Game 2.”

The message was simple: Everyone has to be better. The Panthers have a history of rising to those moments.

“We never lose doubt in this room,” Florida forward Ryan Lomberg said. “Obviously, they’re a good team. They got here for a reason. We knew it wasn’t going to be easy. It’s kind of the theme of our whole year is we make it tough. Whether we wanted it this way or not, it’s this way, so we’ve got to play the hand we’re dealt now.”

NOTES: Maurice said he expects D Radko Gudas, who left Game 2 injured, to play in Game 3. Forward Eetu Luostarinen will remain out. Maurice declined to offer specifics on Luostarinen’s injury, but quipped “he’s a good human.” … Thursday will be Florida’s first Stanley Cup Final game on home ice in FLA Live Arena. The Panthers’ 1996 final appearance was at a long-demolished arena in Miami.

[NHL Power Rankings: Avalanche stay in first; Capitals, Predators improve]

[Related: NHL Trade Deadline Primer: Filip Forsberg trade would not be easy]

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