The good and bad of Maple Leafs’ hot start

The good and bad of Maple Leafs' hot start
Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Remember (the latest instance) when the sky was falling for the Toronto Maple Leafs?

In late October, the Maple Leafs were 2-4-1, mired in a four-game losing streak. In losses to the behemoth Hurricanes and beat-up Penguins, the Maple Leafs were outscored 11-2. Fans who pledged to only care about the playoffs suddenly got quite worried about the regular season.

After a few hot weeks, the Maple Leafs backed up requests for fans to stay calm. Now those fans can go back to worrying about the playoffs, because the Maple Leafs’ regular season’s back on track.

By squeezing past the Rangers, the Maple Leafs pushed their winning streak to five games. Over their past 11 games, they’ve only lost once (10-1-0). The Maple Leafs enter the weekend with a 12-5-1 record, tentatively ranked second in the top-heavy Atlantic Division.

So, which forces are driving Toronto’s hot streak? What could continue, and where are the red flags?

And, most importantly, why might the Maple Leafs break through in the playoffs — and what could once again hold them back?

Let’s get crackling like a fallen leaf under a winter boot.

The mostly good of the Maple Leafs so far

By just about every measure, the Maple Leafs look like a very strong team so far this season. You have to dig pretty deep to nitpick.

Mostly positives at even-strength

Whether you prefer sheer shot volume, or quality stats like high-danger chances, the Maple Leafs generally rank seventh-best or better.

Peel things back, and the flaw may be that the Maple Leafs are a “high-event” team whose style might not translate well enough to the playoffs. So far, the Maple Leafs blend dominant offense (via Hockey Viz):

The good and bad of Maple Leafs' hot start 5v5 offense Viz
via Hockey Viz

With defense that looks vulnerable, but not quite terrible:

Good bad Maple Leafs defense Hockey Viz
via Hockey Viz

The lazy temptation would be to call the Maple Leafs “soft.” If that were true, would they be so overwhelming in the most dangerous areas of the ice? After all, those spots aren’t just where you get the best chances; they’re also where you risk the most peril.

All things considered, it’s surprising that this team’s only averaging 2.67 goals per game, 10th-worst in the NHL. If they continue doing what they’re doing, the offense is almost bound to come. Probably in buckets.

Campbell’s been Vezina-level, which is good and bad

If you want to credit any single player for the Maple Leafs’ hot start, it’s undoubtedly Jack Campbell.

Campbell leads the league in Hockey Reference’s version of Goals Saved Against Average, with 12.95. Calgary’s shutout machine Jacob Markstrom is the only other goalie above double digits this season (10.99).

Overall, Campbell’s 10-3-1 with a fantastic .944 save percentage. For a team lambasted for salary cap management, his contract is the gift that keeps giving. (At least, for now. His $1.65M cap hit expires after this season.)

That’s all great stuff — inspiring, even. But let’s get to the worrying part.

[No surprise, Maple Leafs look strong in PHT’s Power Rankings]

As a first-rounder-turned-journeyman, Campbell’s never played more than 31 NHL games in a single season. Meanwhile, Campbell’s played in 15 of the Maple Leafs’ 18 games in 2021-22. Glance at the other goalies’ work (no one else’s save percentage is above .877), and it’s easy to understand why the Maple Leafs lean so heavily on Campbell.

At some point, they need to ease up. Maybe that means Petr Mrazek finally getting healthy. Or, as unpleasant as it may be, the Maple Leafs might want to punt a few games to keep Campbell as fresh as possible.

(When pressed, that offense might outscore a few problem nights.)

So, as great as Campbell’s been the past two seasons, there are some questions in net.

Then again, you could extend those worries to plenty of teams. What if Andrei Vasilevskiy gets hurt? Thus far, Campbell’s been brilliant, and that’s a positive (and fortunate) development for the Maple Leafs.

(Note: many of these stats come from the indispensible Natural Stat Trick.)

Strong special teams

So far, the Maple Leafs boast the NHL’s fifth-ranked power play (26.5-percent) and fourth-most-efficient penalty kill (87.8). That said, we’re not quite a quarter through the 2021-22 season, so are those units legit?

Well, they could both slip, but there’s a lot to like when you look under the hood.

On the power play, the Maple Leafs mix quantity (top Corsi For) with quality (second only to the Oilers in expected goals for [per 60 minutes]). There’s even room to grow, as their power-play shooting percentage is middle-of-the-pack.

Promisingly, the Maple Leafs’ penalty kill isn’t just the Jack Campbell show. They rank second only to Carolina in shot volume stats, and are a top-10 unit in limiting high-danger chances and expected goals on the PK.

It’s early, but both the Maple Leafs’ power play and penalty kill look improved compared to last season. Arguably significantly improved.

The $10.9 – $11.64M question: can Maple Leafs deliver in playoffs?

Overall, there’s a lot to like about the 2021-22 Maple Leafs as of mid-November. Of course, there was plenty to like about last year’s team, which in some ways was better.

To break through in the playoffs, the Maple Leafs need the obvious: their best players to be at their best.

No doubt, depth is valuable, especially as the playoffs grind on. Yet, sometimes it can get a bit overstated. While the Lightning repeated as champions with a versatile lineup, they also depended upon a select group of players to do the heaviest lifting.

So, the Maple Leafs will need Auston Matthews to score goals, Mitch Marner to stay confident and crafty, and John Tavares to stay healthy. Beyond William Nylander, they’ll need points from the Alexander Kerfoots here and there. (And it’s certainly promising that Ondrej Kase‘s heating up.)

Yes, health can “be a skill,” but there’s absolutely a luck element, too. Maybe the Maple Leafs will need the right opening opponent, too?

Truly, the Maple Leafs could fire on all cylinders and still lose to a very good team in the Panthers, Bruins, or Lightning.

Fair or not, few will have much mercy for the Maple Leafs if they once again fail to win a playoff series. Plenty of signs point toward success or failure. Even with a talented roster, it sure doesn’t look like it will be easy.

But maybe they can pull it off?

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Scroll Down For:

    Stars expect to open camp without unsigned scorer Jason Robertson

    Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

    FRISCO, Texas — Young 40-goal scorer Jason Robertson is expected to miss the start of training camp for the Dallas Stars because the team and the restricted free agent haven’t agreed on a new contract.

    General manager Jim Nill said there’s been steady, ongoing negotiations over the last couple of weeks with Robertson and his representatives. Nill wouldn’t say what has kept the two sides from reaching a deal, adding there have been “very good discussions.”

    The Stars, with new coach Pete DeBoer, open camp Thursday in Cedar Park, Texas, at the home of their AHL team. They have three days of work there before returning to North Texas for their exhibition opener at home on Monday night. They open the regular season Oct. 13 at Nashville.

    “I think he’s disappointed he’s not at camp, we are too,” Nill said before the team departed for the Austin area. “I think it’s very important for a younger player and as you mentioned, the (new) coaching staff. … We do have some time on our side, but we wish he gets here as soon as he can.”

    Robertson had a base salary of $750,000 last season, the end of a $2.775 million, three-year contract. He still has five more years before he has the opportunity to become an unrestricted free agent.

    The left wing turned 23 soon after the end of last season, when he had 41 goals and 38 assists for 79 points in his 74 games. Robertson joined Hockey Hall of Famer Mike Modano, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin as the only 40-goal scorers since the franchise moved to Dallas in 1993.

    A second-round draft pick by the Stars in 2017, Robertson has 125 points (58 goals, 67 assists) in his 128 NHL games. He had one goal and three assists in his first postseason action last season, when Dallas lost its first-round playoff series in seven games against Calgary.

    DeBoer said he looks forward to coaching Robertson, but that the forward’s absence won’t change his plans for camp.

    “It doesn’t impact what I’m doing,” DeBoer said. “Listen, I laid awake at night with the excitement of coaching Jason Robertson, 40-plus goals, but he’s not here. So, you know, until he gets here, I can’t spend any energy on that.”

    Nill said the Stars are open to a long-term extension or a bridge contract for Robertson, who was part of the team’s top line last season with veteran Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz. They combined for 232 points, the second-most in franchise history for a trio.

    “We’re open to anything. But other than that … I’m not going to negotiate through the media,” Nill said. “As I said, we’ve had good conversations. We’ll see where it goes.”

    Training camps open around NHL after another short offseason

    Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

    Training camps open around the NHL after another short offseason, a third in a row squeezed by the pandemic. That doesn’t bother Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon one bit.

    For one of hockey’s best players and his teammates, it’s already time to get back on the ice and defend their Stanley Cup title, less than three months since they knocked off the back-to-back champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

    “I still feel like I just was playing,” MacKinnon said. “I took two weeks off, and then I started skating again. It’s just fun. I enjoy it, and I like the short summer. It feels like the season’s just kind of rolling over again.”

    The NHL rolls into fall coming off an entertaining playoffs and final with the chance to finally get back on a normal schedule. That means full camps for teams that got new coaches and the benefits of a regular routine.

    That means a mere 88 days between Game 6 of the final and the first-on ice practice sessions.

    “We’re kind of used to it now,” Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy said after he and the Lightning lost in the final for the first time in three consecutive trips. “It’s a little harder, of course, because you don’t have that much time to rest. It’s basically a few weeks and you have to get back at it. But, yeah, I can’t complain. You want your summers to be short every year.”

    It was a little longer for Connor McDavid and the Oilers after losing to Colorado in the West final. Despite the lack of downtime, McDavid “wouldn’t trade that in for anything” and aims to make it even further since Edmonton shored up its goaltending situation by adding Jack Campbell.

    A few spins of the goalie carousel ended with the Avalanche acquiring Alexandar Georgiev from the New York Rangers and Cup winner Darcy Kuemper landing with Washington. Joining new teammates, many of whom hoisted the Cup in 2018, Kuemper is not worried about less time off.

    “It was definitely a very unique summer,” Kuemper said. “With how short it was, you start getting back into the gym and you’re kind of a little bit worried that your training’s going to be so short. But you kind of felt like you weren’t getting back into shape. You were already there.”


    The Oilers are one of several teams settling in for training camp under a new coach. Jay Woodcroft took over as interim coach in February but has the full-time job now.

    “Looking forward to a camp with him,” McDavid said. “He did a great job coming in during the middle of the season, but it’s never easy on a coach, for sure. I’m sure there’s things that he wanted to touch on that you wasn’t able to kind of in the middle of the year, so he’ll be able to to touch on all of it this year.”

    The same goes for Bruce Boudreau in Vancouver, 11 months since being put in charge of the Canucks. Philadelphia’s John Tortorella, Boston’s Jim Montgomery, Vegas’ Bruce Cassidy, Dallas’ Peter DeBoer, Florida’s Paul Maurice, Chicago’s Luke Richardson, Detroit’s Derek Lalonde and the New York Islanders’ Lane Lambert are all starting the job fresh.


    Roughly 40 players are attending a camp on a professional tryout agreement with the chance to earn a contract for the season. James Neal has that opportunity with the Blue Jackets, and Derek Stepan returned to Carolina to seek a job with the Hurricanes.

    The most intriguing situation involves 37-year-old center Eric Staal, who agreed to the tryout with Florida the same time brother Marc signed a one-year contract. Younger brother Jordan was with Eric and Marc on the 18th green at Pebble Beach to witness the occasion.

    “They’re both just super pumped, as was I,” said Jordan Staal, who is the captain of the Hurricanes. “Eric is excited about the opportunity and Marc, as well. Really cool. Really cool thing.”


    Before the puck drops on the NHL season in North America on Oct. 11, the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks play twice in Prague on Oct. 7 and 8. And those are not exhibitions.

    “We still play two important games,” said Sharks forward Tomas Hertl, who is a native of Prague. “It’s not just preseason where you coming here to warm up.”

    Colorado and Columbus will also play two games in Tampere, Finland, on Nov. 4-5 as part of the NHL’s Global Series.

    And just as the league gets used to a regular schedule, work is ongoing between the league and NHL Players’ Association to stage a World Cup of Hockey in February 2024, which is popular among players even if it knocks the calendar off kilter again.

    “I think they missed out on a huge, huge portion of the international game that’s really going to be missed,” McDavid said. “We need to figure out a way to get an international tournament in as quickly as possible.”

    Matthew Tkachuk, Panthers ready for 1st training camp together

    Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

    CORAL SPRINGS, Fla. — Aleksander Barkov was sound asleep at his home in Finland when the trade that brought Matthew Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers was finalized, which isn’t surprising considering it was around 4 a.m. in that part of the world.

    He woke up and read texts from friends reacting to the deal.

    And it wasn’t too long before he got a message from Tkachuk.

    “The first message was `(expletive) right’ and how he was excited to come to Florida,” Barkov, the Panthers’ captain, said at Florida’s media day. “`Let’s take this next step, let’s be a winning team for many years to come.’ That’s who he is. He wants to win. He wants to bring that character to this organization. And I think he’s done some damage already.”

    With that, Barkov was sold.

    And after a few weeks of informally skating with one another, the Panthers start the process of officially seeing what they have in Tkachuk when the team’s training camp – the first under new coach Paul Maurice – opens.

    “We’ve basically had everybody here for a few weeks,” Tkachuk said. “I feel like I’ve been in training camp for a couple of weeks. So today doesn’t feel that new to me. I’ve gotten to know everybody … so let’s get these games going. I’m sick and tired of just practicing and working. I want to start playing some games. I think everybody feels the same way.”

    Maurice was hired over the summer as well, inheriting a team that won the Presidents’ Trophy last season and went to the second round of the playoffs — the first series win for Florida since the run to the Stanley Cup Final in 1996.

    He’s as eager as the players are for the first formal practice, calling it “our first Christmas.”

    “The house is bought. Most of the boxes are unpacked,” Maurice said. “I’ve got two kids that kind of came with me; one’s in Coral Gables, one’s in Estero. Their places are unpacked. They’re out of our house. Once you get down here, for me, you spend most of your days at the rink. So, experiencing all of South Florida, we haven’t gotten to that yet.”

    As part of the deal that went down on July 22, the 24-year-old Tkachuk signed a eight-year, $76 million contract. That’s not the only big cost that the Panthers had to agree to while executing the trade; they also sent Jonathan Huberdeau, the franchise’s all-time scoring leader, and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar to the Calgary Flames in exchange for a left wing who had career bests of 42 goals, 62 assists and 104 points last season.

    “I wish all the best to Huby and Weegs,” Barkov said. “They’re great. Everyone loved them. Only good things to say about them. It happens, and for sure, it was best for the team and organization to do this. We move on, and we’ll get ready for a new season.”


    Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is Russian, still makes his home in St. Petersburg, and went there for the bulk of his offseason.

    He said it was not logistically difficult to travel there (or return to the U.S.) this summer, even as the war that started when Russia invaded Ukraine continues. Bobrovsky said last season that he was not trying to focus on anything but hockey, and when asked if it was difficult to be back in Russia as war continues he kept the same approach.

    “I had a good summer,” Bobrovsky said. “I saw friends, I saw family. It’s all been fine. I don’t want to talk about what’s going on. I’m not involved in that stuff.”


    Florida is opening camp with 56 players – 31 forwards, 19 defensemen and six goalies. That group includes brothers Eric Staal and Marc Staal; Marc Staal signed as a free agent in July; Eric Staal is with Florida on a tryout contract.

    Coyotes sign Barrett Hayton right before training camp

    Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
    1 Comment

    SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — The Arizona Coyotes signed forward Barrett Hayton to a two-year contract right before the start of training camp.

    Terms of the deal were not released.

    The 22-year-old Hayton was a restricted free agent and not initially listed on Arizona’s roster for camp.

    Hayton had 10 goals and 14 assists in 60 games with the Coyotes last season, all career highs.

    Arizona drafted the Peterborough, Ontario native with the fifth overall pick of the 2018 NHL draft. He has 13 goals and 18 assists in 94 career games with the Coyotes.