Can Matthews, Maple Leafs finally make a big playoff run?

By Aug 21, 2021, 6:28 PM EDT
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In an ESPN interview partially promoting his NHL 22 cover role, Auston Matthews touched on recent Maple Leafs’ playoff torment. While Matthews admitted the Maple Leafs’ playoff disappointments keep hitting “harder,” he pictures the joy of getting over that hurdle.

“The only way is forward,” Matthews told Greg Wyshynski. “[The playoff loss] sucked. There’s no other way to put it. Extremely disappointing. But it’ll just feel that much better when we eventually get to the top.”

Following that up, Matthews seemed pleased to point out that, for the most part, Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas stuck with the core.

From a volume standpoint, the Maple Leafs will look different. The electrons changed instead of the neutrons, though.

A lot can change between Saturday, Aug. 21 and when the Maple Leafs hope to begin a run in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. There are even nightmare scenarios where the Maple Leafs miss the playoffs altogether.

But let’s (dangerously) assume that the Maple Leafs make it to the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Which factors are most likely to make-or-break a playoff run? Which external factors changed? Where do the Maple Leafs need to improve from within?

Let’s break down a number of factors. What needs to go right/could go wrong as the Maple Leafs hope to finally wake up from their long playoff nightmare?

Maple Leafs must shake off losses of Hyman, Andersen

Again, accounting for every Maple Leafs offseason addition and subtraction might feel dizzying.

It’s most likely to boil down to two factors: a key change in net, and ripple effects revolving around losing Zach Hyman.

Goalie change: Andersen out, Mrazek in

Considering how last season ended, it’s not surprising that Frederik Andersen is no longer with the Maple Leafs.

For years, Andersen was a remarkable workhorse for the Maple Leafs. Maybe that workload took its toll? From 2016-17 through 2018-19, Andersen tied Devan Dubnyk for the most games played (192), faced easily the most shots in the NHL (6,221), and delivered impressive results (107 wins [third overall] and a sturdy .918 save percentage).

Things slipped in 2019-20 (.909 save percentage, -0.4 Goals Saved Above Average), then the bottom really fell out last season (.895 save percentage, -8.5 GSAA, just 24 games played).

 

While Andersen went from reliable-and-sturdy to perhaps a steady decline, Mrazek’s trajectory is even harder to trace.

[2021 NHL Free Agency Tracker]

For years, it wasn’t even clear that Mrazek would truly find a steady NHL job. (At least as anything more than a backup.)

Mrazek flourished this past season with the Hurricanes, generating a .923 save percentage … albeit in just 12 regular-season games. The “book” on Mrazek is that he’s a goalie of extremes: his highs are high, yet his lows can be quite low. That might explain his career turbulence, and meshes reasonably with a solid-but-unspectacular career save percentage of .911 in 275 games.

Strangely, the Hurricanes and Maple Leafs essentially “traded” Mrazek and Andersen.

While it’s easy to understand Toronto moving on from Andersen, Mrazek’s contract (especially a three-year gamble) opens up more debate.

Neither Mrazek nor Jack Campbell have ever really put up No. 1 goalie numbers, at least when it comes to workload. The Maple Leafs’ goaltending hopes rest on a tandem with flashes of brilliance, but bumpy paths through the NHL. Toronto’s netminding duo is tough to forecast, even by the cloudy standards of NHL goalies.

Maple Leafs may struggle to replace Hyman

Did Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner boost Zach Hyman’s counting stats? Almost definitely, but Hyman also almost certainly made life easier for that dynamic (waits for “until the playoffs”) duo.

 

Between Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase, Michael Bunting, and maybe some other wild card (Josh Ho-Sang? Nicholas Robertson?), the Maple Leafs boast a lot of options, post-Hyman. None of them seem like seamless replacements, though.

Perhaps it would be best to accept a drop-off on that top line, while hoping for better things elsewhere?

Being that they’re all 25 years old, the Maple Leafs mostly went young with supporting cast tweaks in Ritchie, Kase, and Bunting. (Ho-Sang, intriguing despite a long stint in hockey purgatory, is also somehow just 25.)

That translates to a younger group, and with the addition of David Kampf, the Maple Leafs might be more versatile. As Jonas Siegel explained in great detail at The Athletic (sub required), the Maple Leafs may feel less-forced to wedge Alexander Kerfoot into a center spot. Players like Kase and Ritchie could fall into any number of alignments. Kase and Ritchie even often played on the same line during their Ducks days.

So, the Maple Leafs could weather the storm of losing Hyman, possibly by committee. Hyman will likely be missed, but Toronto hopes to limit that damage.

Could a Maple Leafs playoff push boil down to luck?

It’s human nature to want to control things. Enough talk of “random luck” might drive someone to existentialism and/or nihilism.

So, a lot of people won’t want to hear about luck, especially when it comes to the Maple Leafs’ playoff woes. But hockey is still a very fluke-friendly sport. Just look at the Lightning, who were shocked by a first-round sweep (including an unlikely Nikita Kucherov suspension, and an injured Victor Hedman) only to become repeat Stanley Cup champions.

Credit the Lightning for blocking out calls to panic. We’ve discussed Maple Leafs’ changes, but the big picture remains similar.

To some extent, they simply need more from Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in a potential playoff push. Some luck wouldn’t hurt, either, though.

  • For a top-heavy team, losing John Tavares was indeed pretty rough.

Yes, that exposes major flaws of the Maple Leafs’ structure. They weren’t able to dynamically change that during the offseason. That plan could look a lot better if Tavares’ line could take some of the heat off of Marner and Matthews, however.

  • Jake Muzzin‘s quietly been one of the Maple Leafs’ best defensemen since joining. Losing him during both playoff runs seems like extra-bad luck.

(That said, as an aging player, Muzzin isn’t immune to more injuries. Health isn’t always fair.)

One big factor: competition

When you can’t even win a playoff series, excuses only mean so much. The Maple Leafs’ playoff hopes might boil down to who they face, though.

  • After losing Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman, Tyler Johnson, and others, will the Lightning take a step back? (Their ability to endlessly unearth gems makes that a dangerous thing to count on.)
  • Yes, the Bruins brought back Taylor Hall. They lost David Krejci and will at least begin the season without Tuukka Rask, so they could be vulnerable.
  • Are the Canadiens and/or Panthers for real, or did one or both teams ride a wave of flukes?
  • It’s probably too early to expect big growth from other Atlantic Division teams … right?

On paper, the Atlantic Division looks daunting, at least at the top level. There’s a scenario where the Maple Leafs do a lot right, yet they fall to a strong team in a 2/3 seed first-round series, anyway. That scenario is as cruel as it is feasible.

Yet, there’s some room for luck to go Toronto’s way. The Lightning have piled up a lot of wear-and-tear, and much of their core is getting older. One can only imagine the groans of agony if the Maple Leafs draw the Bruins again … but slippage is possible for Boston.

[Bruins won’t have Krejci this season]

Even a tough scenario could be a blessing in disguise. What if the Maple Leafs fall to a wild-card spot, but one outside of the Atlantic bracket?

If that happened, they could test their offseason of changes in an especially dramatic way: maybe facing their pal Frederik Andersen and the Hurricanes?

Nothing about this Maple Leafs offseason is likely to drastically change how people feel about their playoff chances. There are plenty of reasons why things might work out, and just about as many counterpoints for continued agony.

It’s the sort of things that might make Maple Leafs fans prefer simulating it all in NHL 22 instead.

Top Posts at PHT

Vegas Golden Knights come back to beat Florida Panthers in Game 1 of Stanley...
Penguins name former Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas as director of hockey operations
Seattle Kraken sign GM Ron Francis to 3-year extension through 2026-27 season

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Vegas Golden Knights come back to beat Florida Panthers in Game 1 of Stanley Cup Final

Associated PressJun 4, 2023, 12:40 AM EDT
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
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LAS VEGAS – Back in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in five years and trailing the Florida Panthers less than 10 minutes into Game 1, the Vegas Golden Knights sent a very clear message.

“We were ready,” Jonathan Marchessault said.

Ready and dominant. Vegas rallied from an early deficit, got the go-ahead goal from Zach Whitecloud with just over 13 minutes left and arguably the best save of the playoffs from Adin Hill and beat Florida 5-2 Saturday night to take the lead in the best-of-seven series.

“We kept out composure, and it was good,” said Marchessault, one of six original Knights players left from the start of the franchise in 2017 who scored the tying goal in the first period. “We just wanted to play the right way and be disciplined, and tonight we were able to be the better team.”

Whitecloud put Vegas ahead, a crucial penalty kill followed and captain Mark Stone scored an insurance goal that was reviewed for a high stick and confirmed. Reilly Smith sealed it with an empty-netter to make the score look more lopsided than the game.

The combination of that offense and Hill’s 33 saves put Vegas up after a feisty opener between Sun Belt teams who wasted little time getting acquainted with big hits during play and plenty of post-whistle pushing and shoving.

“It’s exactly what we expected,” said Vegas defenseman Shea Theodore, who scored his first goal of the playoffs and ended a 27-game drought dating to March 7. “That’s how they wanted to play. We were just trying not to play into it.”

That stuff is just beginning. Game 2 is Monday in Las Vegas.

Before the Panthers even get a chance to respond, they ratcheted up the physical play late after falling behind by two. A handful of penalties resulting from a fracas with 4:24 remaining left the Florida bench well short.

The outcome was determined long before that.

After falling behind on a short-handed goal by Eric Staal that sucked the life out of the crowd of 18,432, the Golden Knights rallied for their ninth comeback win this playoffs. Marchessault – known since arriving in Las Vegas for scoring big goals – answered before the end of the first period.

Early in the second, Hill made a desperation stick save to rob Nick Cousins of what would have been a sure goal. The save was reminiscent of the one Washington’s Braden Holtby made against Vegas – in the same crease – five years ago.

“That’s an unreal save – it’s a game-changer,” coach Bruce Cassidy said. “You need those saves at key moments.”

Giving up a tying goal to Anthony Duclair with 10.2 seconds left in the second did not slow the Golden Knights’ momentum much. Whitecloud’s goal, with two-time Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky screened and unable to see, fired up fans once again.

Bobrovsky, in the final for the first time, downplayed any reason for concern after stopping 29 of 34 shots and losing for just the second time in 12 games this postseason.

“I played a good game,” Bobrovsky said. “I played a solid game. They created some good chances other than goals. They had lots of good scoring chances, and that was fun.”

Part of the fun came when play was stopped.

Less than 10 minutes in, Hill was none too happy about Nick Cousins crashing into his crease and gave the agitating Panthers winger a jab that incited a handful of scrums. During the second period, Matthew Tkachuk let Vegas’ Nic Hague know he wasn’t thrilled about a hit in the corner on Cousins and a collision with Brandon Montour after the whistle.

“If guys are going to come in my crease and try to push me around, I’m going to stand my own ground,” Hill said. “I’m not going to do anything too crazy or get too wild, but, yeah, I’ve got to stand up for myself.”

Florida coach Paul Maurice, back in the final for the first time since 2001, displayed a similarly calm demeanor as he did all the way back in the first round, when his team fell behind 1-0 then 3-1 to NHL-best Boston before winning in seven.

“It’s going to be tight,” Maurice said. “Everybody breathe.”

The Golden Knights are in the final for the second time in six years of existence, five years after making it in their inaugural season. Vegas won the opener in 2018 and lost the series to Washington in five games.

The Panthers are back playing for the Cup for the first time since 1996. Florida got swept by Colorado in that final 27 years ago, 18 months before Tkachuk, the team’s leading scorer this playoffs, was born.

It’s the 66th different matchup of teams in the Cup final in NHL history and the 46th since the expansion era began in 1967-68. This is the first time since Washington-Vegas and just the third time since the turn of the century in which the final features two teams who have never won the league’s championship.

Penguins name former Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas as director of hockey operations

Associated PressJun 1, 2023, 2:21 PM EDT
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PITTSBURGH (AP) Kyle Dubas wanted to take a breath and take a break after being fired as the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Then the Pittsburgh Penguins called.

The break ended shortly thereafter.

Dubas joined the Penguins as the team’s president of hockey operations, less than two weeks after a somewhat ugly exit from Toronto following a second-round playoff loss to Florida.

The 37-year-old Dubas goes from one type of hockey crucible to another. In Toronto, he was tasked with helping the Maple Leafs emerge from two decades of postseason futility. In Pittsburgh, his mission will be to prop open the Stanley Cup window for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang a little longer.

All three are 35 or older and haven’t won a playoff series since 2018. Yet Dubas believes strongly the issue isn’t the age of the franchise’s core but deficiencies elsewhere on the roster. Dubas replaces Brian Burke, who was fired along with general manager Ron Hextall in April after the Penguins failed to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2006.

“I heard a lot of people that were highly skeptical of the team’s ability to contend here and the way I view it, if the people want to bet against (Crosby, Letang and Malkin) they can go ahead and do so,” Dubas said. “But I’m going to bet on them and go with them here. I think it is a group that’s capable of contending to win a championship.”

Crosby and Malkin were excellent for much of last season and Letang showed remarkable resiliency while dealing with multiple setbacks, including a stroke and the death of his father. Yet save for a 14-2-2 stretch in November and December, the Penguins struggled to find consistency and ultimately stumbled down the stretch to snap the longest active playoff streak in major North American Sports.

While the Penguins do have $20 million in cap space and the 14th overall pick in this month’s NHL draft, significant changes or upgrades could be difficult in the short term.

Dubas inherits a team that was the oldest in the NHL last season and is littered with question marks, particularly in goal and the forward group outside of Crosby, Malkin and Jake Guentzel.

Two-time All-Star goaltender Tristan Jarry will become a free agent this summer and was beset by injuries over the second half of the season. Forward Jason Zucker, who served as the emotional sparkplug for long stretches, is also scheduled to hit the open market and may have priced himself out of town.

Pittsburgh also has several aging players with full or partial no-movement clauses, including 38-year-old forward Jeff Carter, 30-year-old Bryan Rust and 35-year-old defenseman Jeff Petry.

“I think that those are obviously very real situations, everyone knows that they exist,” Dubas said. “To me the effect on it … is what we can add in terms of depth pieces? What we can add in terms of younger players? That’ll be the real key.”

Dubas does plan to hire a general manager to fill the vacancy created when Hextall was let go after a short but largely unfruitful tenure. Dubas will serve as the GM on an interim basis until early July.

Dubas comes to Pittsburgh after nine seasons with the Maple Leafs, including the last five as general manager. Toronto won a postseason series for the first time since 2004 this spring before falling to the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference semifinals in five games.

Shortly after the Maple Leafs’ playoff exit, Dubas said that he wasn’t sure if he wanted to remain in Toronto. His contract was set to expire on June 30, but team president Kyle Shanahan opted to pre-emptively fire Dubas instead. Toronto hired former Calgary Flames general manager Brad Treliving as Dubas’ replacement.

Dubas helped build the Maple Leafs into a regular-season power during his tenure. Toronto set single-season records for wins and points, and went 221-109-42 in his tenure. Dubas also didn’t shy away from big moves – he fired Stanley Cup-winning coach Mike Babcock in November 2019 and replaced him with Sheldon Keefe – but struggled to find the right mix in the playoffs until this spring.

In the end, advancing beyond the first round for the first time since 2004 wasn’t enough for Dubas to remain in Toronto.

He joked he was maybe a little “too honest” during his season-ending press conference with the Maple Leafs when he expressed reservations about returning. Shanahan’s abrupt decision to move on came as a bit of a surprise, and Dubas planned to take some time to hit the reset button before looking for another job.

Yet the Penguins – who’d already been given clearance by the Maple Leafs to interview Dubas – provided a compelling reason to speed up the timetable. Dubas’ due diligence included speaking to Crosby and longtime coach Mike Sullivan to take the pulse of a leadership group that remains firmly in place.

Dubas called them “some of the best competitors” in hockey. Competitors that have – for one reason or another – been unable to recapture the magic of their runs to back-to-back Cups in 2016 and 2017.

Time is running out for Crosby to put his name on the Cup for a fourth time in a career that will almost certainly end in the Hall of Fame. Dubas knows he’ll be judged in part on whether he can make that happen. After taking more than six weeks of searching before landing on Dubas, Fenway Sports Group Chairman Tom Werner believes Dubas is up to the challenge.

“Our philosophy is giving Kyle and his associates the best possible resources to win,” Werner said. “Kyle’s been very articulate today about his path to success … we’re very confident that Kyle will execute the plan he’s articulated to us.”

Seattle Kraken sign GM Ron Francis to 3-year extension through 2026-27 season

Associated PressJun 1, 2023, 11:55 AM EDT
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SEATTLE — Ron Francis was initially approached about extending his stay as the general manager of the Seattle Kraken back in the winter, but putting finality to the decision took longer than expected.

The Kraken kept winning and pushed what was mostly a formality to a secondary need until after Seattle’s unexpected playoff run finally ended.

“At that point it was kind of verbally done, just kind of a few little small details. And then we get into the playoffs and busy and it kind of got put on the back burner and I didn’t want it to be a distraction with the team and where they were at,” Francis said.

That finality came when the Kraken announced Francis had signed a three-year extension through the 2026-27 season. Francis originally signed a five-year deal when he became the first GM in franchise history back in 2019 and the new contract will kick in starting with the 2024-25 season.

“I’ll never forget the day that he said, ‘Yes, I’m ready to do this,’” Kraken CEO Tod Leiweke said. “But today is another great day for our fans because not only did he come and build, he is going to stay here and continue to build this franchise.”

Seattle reached the second round of the NHL playoffs in its second year of existence, following a challenging first year where it underachieved and was among the worst teams in the league.

But Francis navigated through that difficult first season and helped land the pieces that turned Seattle into a playoff team in the second year without mortgaging future opportunities or putting the Kraken into challenging salary cap situations.

“He has been the leader that’s gotten us to where we are today. And he is the leader to take us to the next level,” Seattle co-owner Samantha Holloway said.

Seattle is the second stop for Francis as an executive after spending seven seasons in the front office of the Carolina Hurricanes. Francis started as director of hockey operations before becoming the general manager in 2014. Francis was let go by the Hurricanes after the 2018 season.

Seattle jumped at the chance to bring the Hall of Fame player in to lead the front office. Seattle’s expansion season was a major underachievement with the Kraken going 27-49-6 and finishing last in the Pacific Division with 60 points. But Francis was able to move veteran players to stockpile draft picks and left enough salary cap room to make some key moves entering the second season.

Seattle signed free agent forward Andre Burakovksy, traded for winger Oliver Bjorkstrand and inserted rookie Matty Beniers into the lineup on Seattle’s top line from the first day of the season. The results on the ice couldn’t be argued. Seattle went 46-28-8 and reached 100 points, knocked off defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado in the first round of the playoffs before falling to Dallas in seven games in the conference semifinals.

“It’s been a real team effort. I’m sitting up here today and they’re saying good things about me, but it’s a much bigger picture than just me,” Francis said. “I’m excited to be here for a few more years and hopefully everybody’s opinion doesn’t change, but we’re going to stick to the plan and continue building it the right way so we can be a great franchise for multiple years.”

Francis also stuck with coach Dave Hakstol after that difficult first season. He may be the next in line for a contract extension from the team after a season where he was recognized as a finalist for the Jack Adams Award for top coach in the league.

Maple Leafs hire Brad Treliving as team’s new general manager

Associated PressMay 31, 2023, 4:00 PM EDT
Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
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TORONTO — Brad Treliving has a new job.

And the Maple Leafs have a new plan.

Treliving was hired as Toronto’s general manager less than two weeks after firing Kyle Dubas.

The 53-year-old Treliving left the Calgary Flames in April following nine seasons that included five playoff appearances and two 100-point seasons.

“Brad brings a wealth of knowledge from his years of experience as a general manager and hockey executive in Calgary, Arizona and beyond,” Leafs president Brendan Shanahan said in a statement. “He has earned tremendous respect amongst his peers throughout his years in the NHL and has built excellent relationships at all levels within the game.”

Treliving joins the Leafs at a crucial juncture in the wake of Shanahan’s stunning dismissal of Dubas on May 19.

The Original Six franchise, whose Stanley Cup drought stands at 56 years, won a playoff series for the first time in nearly two decades with a victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning this spring, but then lost to the Eastern Conference champion Florida Panthers in five games.

Dubas, who had been Toronto’s GM since 2018 and didn’t have a contract beyond June 30, suggested at an end of season news conference May 15 he wasn’t sure he wanted to remain in the role – at least in part because of the stress on his young family.

A roller coaster five days followed, with Shanahan ultimately firing the 37-year-old Dubas despite previously wanting to keep his GM, and the now-unemployed executive eventually indicating to his boss he wished to stay.

Treliving is the third GM – joining Dubas and Hall of Famer Lou Lamoriello – hired in Toronto by Shanahan, whose so-called “Shanaplan” aimed at getting the storied franchise back on its feet when he came on board in 2014 has seen unparalleled regular-season success, but just that one series victory in eight attempts.

“I’m thrilled to join an Original Six team and recognize how much the Maple Leafs mean to this community,” Treliving said. “This is a very exciting day for my family and I.”

Treliving has a lot to deal with as he settles into his new office at Scotiabank Arena.

Treliving, who served in the Phoenix Coyotes’ front office for seven seasons before arriving in Calgary, will have to decide the future of head coach Sheldon Keefe, while stars Auston Matthews and William Nylander can sign contract extensions as of July 1.

Matthews and Mitch Marner have full no-movement clauses ready to kick in the same day. Nylander will have a 10-team list.

The NHL draft is also set for the end of June in Nashville, Tennessee, while the Leafs have 12 roster players primed to hit free agency at noon EDT on July 1.

The Flames, who missed the playoffs this season, won the Pacific Division in 2021-22 under Treliving before falling to the Edmonton Oilers in the second round.

Johnny Gaudreau then stunned the organization by leaving Calgary for the Columbus Blue Jackets in free agency last summer. Fellow star forward Matthew Tkachuk added another wrinkle by informing the team he didn’t plan to re-sign.

Treliving subsequently dealt the winger to Florida as part of a package that included forward Jonathan Huberdeau and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar heading to southern Alberta.

Huberdeau then signed an eight-year, $84 million contract extension with the Flames that kicks in next season.

Tkachuk, a Conn Smythe Trophy candidate as playoff MVP, and the Panthers open the Cup Final against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Despite the departures of Gaudreau and Tkachuk, the Flames looked like contenders ahead of the 2022-23 season.

The acquisition of Huberdeau and the signing of center Nazem Kadri was expected to fill the void left by Gaudreau and Tkachuk, but the mix wasn’t right for a group led by hard-nosed coach Darryl Sutter.

Huberdeau and Kadri finished well off their career-high points totals of the previous season – the former went from 115 with Florida to 55 in Calgary – while subpar goaltending was an issue much of the season.

Treliving now turns his attention to Toronto.

Just like last summer, he has lots of work to do.