How good is this year’s Flyers team?

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It has turned into a yearly question that never seems to have an easy answer. Just how good are the Flyers?

On any given night, during any given stretch, they can either look like the best team in the world, or a team that is steamrolling toward doom. They can win 10 games in a row just as easily as they can lose 10 in a row, and either outcome seems equally likely. We have seen it time and time again.

Once one of the most consistent franchises in the league, the Flyers have spent the past nine years alternating between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs in a decade long run of mediocrity.

It has been 10 seasons since they have put together consecutive playoff appearances. Will that change this season?

Entering the 2020-21 NHL season, there is reason to be both optimistic and concerned about what this season could bring.

Let’s start with the positives

They finished the 2019-20 season near the top of the league.

Their overall record was sixth best in the NHL at the time of the March pause, a finish that was driven by a 25-game stretch to end the season where they had the best record in hockey (18-6-1), had the best goal-differential (plus-31), scored the most goals (91), and allowed the second fewest goals (60).

They went into the playoffs as the hottest team in the league, won all three Round-Robin games to secure the top-seed in the Eastern Conference, then beat the Canadiens in six games. They were a Game 7 loss to the Islanders away from making their first trip to the Eastern Conference Final in more than 10 years.

• They have a nice mix of established top-line players, as well as young up-and-coming talent. Sean Couturier is one of the best two-way players in the league and while they are no longer elite scorers, Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek are still strong contributors. Travis Konecny, just now entering his prime, is turning into a sensational player, while Joel Farabee and Philippe Myers are coming off strong rookie seasons and should be ready to take big steps forward this season. Add in veterans like Kevin Hayes and James van Riemsdyk and there is a lot of talent here.

• Most importantly, they finally have a goalie in Carter Hart.

So what are the concerns?

• The late season success and playoff run produced fantastic results. But results are not always the best indicator of what is going to happen next. The process behind those results matters as well, and that is where there might be a little bit of concern.

While the Flyers were stacking up wins late in the season and in postseason, there is reason to believe that it was simply one of the Flyers’ patented hot streaks that may not be sustainable.

During that 25-game stretch to end the regular season they scored on more than 10 percent of their shots during 5-on-5 play and close to 12 percent of their shots in all situations. Both numbers led the league. That, simply, is not a sustainable number. No team — not even Tampa, or Toronto, or Washington, or Pittsburgh, or any other elite offensive team — scores on that many shots over a full season.

For example, only one team finished the 2019-20 with a shooting percentage of more than 11 percent (Tampa) in all situations, and no team finished with a mark higher than 9.7 percent during 5-on-5 play. Those numbers for the Flyers are going to regress.

While their skaters were shooting the lights out, they were also getting an insane level of goaltending from Hart and Brian Elliott.

Those two factors made up for the fact that the Flyers’ underlying numbers (shot attempts, scoring chances, expected goals) were only middle of the pack across the league. The process was not exactly matching the results.

[Related: ProHockeyTalk’s Free Agent Tracker]

In the playoffs, the underlying numbers became even worse. They were outshot, outchanced, and at times outplayed on a consistent basis even as the wins continued to pile up.

How did they keep winning and go as far as they did? Hart played his butt off in the playoffs.

The twist here being that after otherwise great Flyers teams were sabotaged by sub-par goaltending for two decades come playoff time, this team was almost certainly carried by its goalie.

At the moment the only significant change to the roster has been Erik Gustafsson coming in to replace the retired Matt Niskanen on defense. That is probably a downgrade, but it should allow for Myers to take on a bigger role. Which is promising based on his rookie season.

So what is the outlook?

You should be hesitant to put much stock into any team’s playoff results or process from this past season. It was a unique set of circumstances where teams had to come back after not playing for months and jump right into the most competitive games of the season in an unprecedented setting. Things were weird. Weird stuff happened.

It is probably far more worthwhile to look at how they finished the regular season and the way they were playing then. As mentioned above, the process was not exactly matching the result. It was necessarily bad, it simply was not what you would expect to see from a team that was putting together the best record in the league. That run may have been a small mirage.

The reality is this season seems to be setting up for another year of madness in Philadelphia. There is enough talent to make this a playoff team, and maybe even a very good one, especially if Hart keeps progressing and young players like Farabee and Myers take another big step forward. That does not even take into account the complete wild card that is Nolan Patrick.

But there are also enough variables (shooting regression; will the goaltending hold up; defense?) that could make things go in a completely different direction.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

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    Rangers sign Filip Chytil to 4-year extension

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    NEW YORK — The New York Rangers have signed forward Filip Chytil to a four-year contract extension worth $17.75 million, locking up another member of their core long term.

    The team announced the deal Wednesday night. Chytil will count just under $4.44 million annually against the salary cap through the 2026-27 season.

    Chytil, 23, is in the midst of a career year. He has set career highs with 22 goals, 20 assists and 42 points in 66 games for the playoff-bound Rangers.

    The Czech native is the team’s sixth-leading scorer and ranks fourth on the roster in goals. The 2017 first-round pick has 144 points in 342 NHL regular-season and playoff games. He was set to be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this summer.

    New York already had top center Mika Zibanejad signed through 2030, No. 1 defenseman Adam Fox through 2029, veteran Chris Kreider through 2027, winger Artemi Panarin through 2026 and reigning Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender Igor Shesterkin through 2025.

    General manager Chris Drury’s next order of business is an extension for 2020 top pick Alexis Lafrenière, who is only signed through the remainder of this season and can be a restricted free agent.

    Blackhawks’ Jonathan Toews returns to ice, hints at retirement

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    CHICAGO — Longtime Chicago Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews returned to the ice but hinted his stellar NHL career could be winding down after 15 years.

    Toews, 34, skated with teammates prior to Chicago’s game with the Dallas Stars. It was his first time practicing with them since a game in Edmonton on Jan. 28.

    He made a statement through the team on Feb. 19 saying he would be stepping away because of the effects of Chronic Immune Response Syndrome and “long COVID.”

    In meeting with reporters, Toews stopped short of saying he hoped to play in any of last-place Chicago’s nine remaining games. His eight-year, $84 million contract is set to expire at the end of the season.

    Toews said he’s feeling stronger, but isn’t sure if he’ll be able to play again for the Blackhawks or another team.

    “Both if I’m being fully honest,” Toews said. “I feel like I’ve said it already, that I’ve gotten to the point where my health is more important.

    “When you’re young and you’re playing for a Stanley Cup and everyone’s playing through something, that means something and it’s worthwhile. But I’m at that point where it feels like more damage is being done than is a good thing.”

    Toews, the Blackhawks’ first-round draft pick (third overall) in 2006, joined the team in 2007 and was a pillar of Stanley Cup championship clubs in 2010, 2013 and 2015.

    At the peak of his career, he was one of the NHL’s top two-way centers, winning the Selke Trophy as the league’s top defensive forward in 2013.

    In 1,060 regular-season games, Toews has 371 goals and 509 assists. In 139 playoff games, he’s posted 45 goals and 74 assists, and he won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in 2010.

    Toews missed the entire 2020-21 season with Chronic Immune Response System, which caused debilitating inflammation and fatigue.

    He appeared in 71 games in 2021-22, then started this season with renewed energy before slowing and eventually shutting himself down.

    Entering this season, it looked as if Chicago might deal him, as it did fellow star Patrick Kane, before the March trade deadline. But Kane went to the New York Rangers and Toews to injured reserve.

    Toews believed he was progressing before a relapse in January left him so sore and tired that he could barely “put on my skates or roll out of bed to come to the rink.”

    Toews said his progress over the past month has been “pretty encouraging” and he’s delighted to be back among his teammates. He has no timetable beyond that.

    “We’re just going to go day by day here,” Chicago coach Luke Richardson said. He deserves anything he wants to try to achieve here.”

    Richardson hoped Toews “can take that next step later in the week and hopefully (he) gives us the green light to go in a game.”

    But Toews emphasized his long-term health and ability to lead a “normal life” is most important. He wants to go out on a positive note and not hit the ice for a game playing through excessive pain and dysfunction.

    “It’s definitely on my mind that this could be my last few weeks here as a Blackhawk in Chicago,” Toews said. “It’s definitely very important for me to go out there and enjoy the game and just kind of soak it in and just really appreciate everything I’ve been able to be part of here in Chicago.”

    Budding Wild star Matt Boldy more willing to shoot, and it shows

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    ST. PAUL, Minn. — Matt Boldy was unable to resist a smile in the aftermath of his second hat trick in five games for the Minnesota Wild, a young right wing and reluctant star trying to make sense of a remarkable hot streak.

    Does the puck feel as if it’s automatically going in the net these days each time he shoots?

    “Yeah, it does,” Boldy said in the locker room after leading the first-place Wild to a 5-1 win over Seattle. “My linemates are playing great. Hopefully you guys are giving them a lot of credit. You look at some of those goals – just putting it on a tee for me.”

    This non-attention-seeker has found himself squarely in the NHL spotlight. Boldy has 11 goals in nine games since Wild superstar Kirill Kaprizov was sidelined with a lower-body injury to raise his goal total to 28, in part because he’s been more willing to shoot. With vision and stickhandling as strengths and the humility of being a second-year player, it’s easy to be in a pass-first mindset.

    “Everybody kind of took turns talking to him. But it’s not that he didn’t want to. A lot of times a situation like that where a guy’s got that skillset, it’s a real unselfish quality, right?” coach Dean Evason said. “But I think he gets now that he helps the team a lot when he scores goals.”

    The Wild were confident enough in Boldy’s scoring ability to commit a seven-year, $49 million contract extension to him earlier this winter, after all.

    “I think I’ve always had that mentality, but sometimes you just get into spots and it comes off your stick good,” Boldy said. “When things are going well, the puck goes in the net.”’

    The Wild are 6-1-2 without Kaprizov. Boldy is a big reason why.

    “You go through the slumps, you learn what you need to do to score. I think he’s found a good way to be in the right spot and shoot the puck when he had a good opportunity,” center Joel Eriksson Ek said.

    The Wild have only won one division title in 22 years, the five-team Northwest Division in 2007-08. They’re leading the eight-team Central Division with eight games to go, with both Colorado and Dallas too close for comfort. They haven’t won a playoff series since 2015.

    With Kaprizov due back before the postseason and Boldy on this heater, a Wild team that ranks just 23rd in the league in goals per game (2.93) ought to have a better chance to advance. Eriksson Ek and Marcus Johansson have been ideal linemates for the Boston College product and Massachusetts native.

    Since the Wild entered the league in the 2000-01 season, only five NHL players have had more hat tricks at age 21 or younger than Boldy with three: Patrik Laine (eight), Marian Gaborik (five), Steven Stamkos (five), Alex DeBrincat (four) and Connor McDavid (four). Boldy turns 22 next week, so there’s still time for one or two more.

    “He’s big. He controls the puck a lot. He’s got a good shot, good release. He’s smart. He switches it up. He’s got good moves on breakaways. He’s a total player,” goalie Marc-Andre Fleury said. ”Fun to watch him grow this year.”

    Pezzetta scores shootout winner; Canadiens beat Sabres 4-3

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    Timothy T. Ludwig/USA TODAY Sports
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    BUFFALO, N.Y. ⁠— Brendan Gallagher and the Montreal Canadiens rallied back to avoid playoff elimination with less than three weeks left in their season. The Buffalo Sabres, meanwhile, are running out of chances to stay in the Eastern Conference wild-card hunt.

    Gallagher forced overtime by scoring his 200th career goal, and Michael Pezzetta scored the decisive shootout goal in a 4-3 win over the Sabres on Monday night.

    “It’s one of those things I think we earned that chance. We weren’t fantastic but we did enough on the road tonight to get a win,” Gallagher said. “Smiles all around.”

    The Canadiens could laugh, especially after Pezzetta celebrated his goal by putting his stick between his legs and riding it like a wooden horse — much like former NHL tough guy Dave “Tiger” Williams did during his 14-year NHL career spanning the 1970s and 80s.

    “I’m not sure we’ll see that again. One of a kind,” said Gallagher. “I’d be worried about falling over.”

    Pezzetta scored by driving in from the right circle to beat Eric Comrie inside the far post. Buffalo’s Jack Quinn scored in the fourth shootout round, but was matched by Montreal’s Jesse Ylonen, whose shot from in tight managed to trickle in through Comrie.

    Jordan Harris and Alex Belzile also scored for Montreal, and Jake Allen stopped 30 shots through overtime, while allowing one goal on six shootout attempts.

    Montreal would have been eliminated from playoff contention for a second straight season – and two years removed from reaching the Stanley Cup Final – with any type of loss.

    The Sabres squandered a 3-2 third-period lead to drop to 3-6-3 in their past 12. Buffalo also blew a chance to move to within four points of idle Pittsburgh, which holds the eighth and final playoff spot.

    “Just a little hesitation,” forward JJ Peterka said of the Sabres third-period lapse. “We didn’t play with much energy and we didn’t play that aggressive as we played the two periods before. I think that was the difference.”

    Buffalo’s Lukas Rousek scored a goal and added an assist while filling in for leading scorer Tage Thompson, who did not play due to an upper body injury. Peterka and defenseman Riley Stillman also scored, and Comrie stopped 38 shots through overtime, and allowed two goals on six shootout attempts.

    Montreal blew two one-goal leads to fall behind 3-2 on Stillman’s goal at the 8:31 mark of the second period.

    Gallagher scored on the fly by using Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin as a screen to snap in a shot inside the far left post. With the goal, Gallagher tied Bobby Rousseau for 24th on the Canadiens career scoring list.

    “I liked the way we corrected ourselves, it’s a sign of maturity, in the way we stayed on task,” Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis said, in recalling how the Canadiens recently unraveled in an 8-4 loss two weeks ago to Colorado, which plays a similar up-tempo style as Buffalo.

    PRIDE NIGHT

    The Sabres hosted their third Pride Night, with Russian D Ilya Lyubushkin electing not to participate in warmups by citing an anti-gay Kremlin law and fears of retribution at home in Moscow, where he has family and visits in the offseason. The remainder of the team wore dark blue jerseys with the Sabres logo on the front encircled by a rainbow-colored outline.

    During the first intermission, the Sabres broadcast a video in which GM Kevyn Adams said: “This is about recognizing someone’s humanity and true identity. We know there are people out there struggling with who they are, and we want them to know that they have an ally in the Buffalo Sabres.”

    UP NEXT

    Canadiens: At the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday night.

    Sabres: Host the New York Rangers on Friday night.