How good is Coyotes trade rumor magnet Oliver Ekman-Larsson, really?

By James O'BrienOct 2, 2020, 5:36 PM EDT

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For those who at least know who Coyotes defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson is, the next question is: “How good is OEL?” Is OEL worth all the fuss amid rumors that teams like the Bruins and Canucks might be interested?

That might depend upon who you ask.

Let’s go over Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s contract, stats (both fancy and traditional), and the perceptions about his game. Will they make it any easier to decide if OEL is worth all of the trade rumors and attention? Well, hopefully … but as important as NHL defensemen are, they can also be tough nuts to crack.

The inherent risks of trading for an aging defenseman on a big contract

Oliver Ekman-Larsson turned 29 on July 17. The Swedish defenseman played in 723 regular-season games with the Coyotes, while appearing in only 25 career playoff contests.

That 29-year-old age will scare you or produce a shoulder shrug depending upon your view of the aging curve. (For me? Yeah, I’d be frightened. Hockey Graphs noted in 2017 that NHL players peak between ages 23-27, and things can start to get ugly when they enter their 30’s.)

However you feel about OEL’s age, his contract isn’t cheap. Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s contract carries a robust $8.25M cap hit through 2026-27, with no-movement clauses throughout. Whether it’s the Coyotes or a team like the Bruins or Canucks, chances are, it could be very hard to trade OEL as time goes on.

The current NHL economic climate makes trading for OEL even riskier

And the NHL’s current economic realities make OEL’s contract an even bigger risk. Mostly.

A contending team trading for Oliver Ekman-Larsson would need to cross its fingers that most of the worst COVID-related money impacts end up being contained to 2020-21. The Coyotes (eventually) already paid OEL’s $4M signing bonus, so his team would only be on the hook for $4M for 2020-21. Unfortunately, that’s the only short-term good news about the contract.

The very bad news is that extremely expensive days are coming up.

OEL’s total annual salary is slated at $10.5M from 2021-22 through 2023-24. In 2024-25, it’s also pricey at $8M. Then, it gets quite trade-friendly, as his salary ($5.25M) is much lower than that $8.25M cap hit.

So, Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s biggest paydays come during periods of serious financial uncertainty for the NHL. Maybe a big market team like the Boston Bruins don’t care, but what if the global pandemic throws all sorts of revenues for a loop, and for multiple seasons?

Teams have to ask themselves that question about any move going forward, yet especially with a premium-priced defenseman like OEL. Especially since, well, it’s fair to wonder if OEL is still a premium defenseman.

Most stats point to a troubling decline for Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Whether you look at traditional stats or “fancy,” advanced ones, it’s clear that OEL’s numbers slipped.

Granted, it’s easier to talk yourself into trading for Oliver Ekman-Larsson if you look at the usual offensive numbers. While he may never flirt with a legitimately Norris-caliber 2015-16 season (21 goals, 55 points, bonkers possession numbers), OEL still scores, generating nine goals and 30 points in 66 games. That point-every-other-game-or-so pace doesn’t scream “$8.25M defenseman,” but it’s likely more soothing to old-school types. Consider that, since 2013-14, Ekman-Larsson ranked 16th among defensemen in points (297) and third in goals (108). You won’t find a ton of defensemen with two 20+ goal seasons to their name, but OEL is one of them.

Again, though, you’re paying and/or trading for what Oliver Ekman-Larsson will do, not what he already accomplished. That’s where recent slippage is worrisome.

Taking a more complete look at his game, consider how Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s RAPM chart for his lofty 2013-2016 years look (via Evolving Hockey):

Oliver Ekman-Larsson RAPM 1 — *RAPM chart via Evolving Hockey*

Compared to his more modest recent seasons:

Oliver Ekman-Larsson RAPM 2 — *RAPM Chart via Evolving Hockey*

For the most part, people aren’t condemning Oliver Ekman-Larsson as a “bad” defenseman who no team should trade for.

Instead, the questions revolve around whether he’s worth giving up real assets for in a trade, and just how toxic OEL’s contract looks. It’s tough to beat up on the Coyotes too much for signing a player closer to when he was legitimately elite, but it’s possible that those elite days are in his past.

It’s slightly puzzling that the Bruins would give up assets and pay big money for OEL, and not just use that money to bring back Torey Krug:

SKATR OEL - Krug — *SKATR chart via Bill Comeau*

Unless the Coyotes retained OEL’s contract, or took on someone else’s (cheaper) problem(s), I’m not sure that trading for Oliver Ekman-Larsson is worth the risk. Some do, though.

NHL staffers seem on board with trading for Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Arizona Coyotes Insider’s Craig Morgan provided a great look at how people around the NHL view trading for Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Broadly speaking, the “eight independent voices” didn’t seem overly concerned about OEL’s age.

“I don’t think life stops at 29 and 30,” A league source told Morgan. “We’ve got this narrative that once you’re 27 you’re on the downside of your career. Not everybody is the same. It depends how much hockey you have played, what’s your injury history and how hard have the miles been, but I don’t necessarily subscribe to theory that once you turn 30 the hourglass starts on the end of your career. I still think there’s lot of hockey left in Oliver.”

[MORE: Trade market “intensifying” for Oliver Ekman-Larsson]

There’s optimism about how a change of scenery may benefit OEL’s game. Indeed, there does seem to be some fire to go with all the smoke about Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s style not mixing well with Rick Tocchet’s coaching.

All of that said, it’s pretty dangerous to project improvement on a player when you’re trading for them, at least when that player a) carries a huge contract and b) will probably cost you significant assets. What if Oliver Ekman-Larsson is what he is?

Which, lately, has been: a good defenseman (sometimes quite good, sometimes just OK) making the money of a truly elite one? Should you really talking yourself into trading for a player whose top contract comparables are John Carlson, Roman Josi, and Victor Hedman?

Closing thoughts on Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s trade value

For every person wondering if trading for Oliver Ekman-Larsson would be worth the risk, there are some who are empathic about it. That goes for both sides of analytics vs. old-school debates. The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis warmed up to the idea (sub required), while Brian Burke didn’t seem too keen on the Canucks adding him.

Personally, it boils down to mitigating risks.

Will the Coyotes, as cash-challenged as they are, be willing to retain some of OEL’s contract in a trade? If not, would they take on a smaller contract, particularly one that also has some term? What kind of trade package would the Coyotes accept, realizing that their partner likely knows that Arizona needs to shed salary as much as possible?

It all sounds very risky, but could be a lot of fun to watch. Hey, at least we’re not the ones signing the checks, right? (Unless you’re an NHL owner. *waves*)

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Rangers sign Filip Chytil to 4-year extension

Associated PressMar 30, 2023, 7:53 PM EDT

Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports

NEW YORK — The New York Rangers have signed forward Filip Chytil to a four-year contract extension worth $17.75 million, locking up another member of their core long term.

The team announced the deal Wednesday night. Chytil will count just under $4.44 million annually against the salary cap through the 2026-27 season.

Chytil, 23, is in the midst of a career year. He has set career highs with 22 goals, 20 assists and 42 points in 66 games for the playoff-bound Rangers.

The Czech native is the team’s sixth-leading scorer and ranks fourth on the roster in goals. The 2017 first-round pick has 144 points in 342 NHL regular-season and playoff games. He was set to be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this summer.

New York already had top center Mika Zibanejad signed through 2030, No. 1 defenseman Adam Fox through 2029, veteran Chris Kreider through 2027, winger Artemi Panarin through 2026 and reigning Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender Igor Shesterkin through 2025.

General manager Chris Drury’s next order of business is an extension for 2020 top pick Alexis Lafrenière, who is only signed through the remainder of this season and can be a restricted free agent.

Blackhawks’ Jonathan Toews returns to ice, hints at retirement

Associated PressMar 29, 2023, 9:51 AM EDT

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

CHICAGO — Longtime Chicago Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews returned to the ice but hinted his stellar NHL career could be winding down after 15 years.

Toews, 34, skated with teammates prior to Chicago’s game with the Dallas Stars. It was his first time practicing with them since a game in Edmonton on Jan. 28.

He made a statement through the team on Feb. 19 saying he would be stepping away because of the effects of Chronic Immune Response Syndrome and “long COVID.”

In meeting with reporters, Toews stopped short of saying he hoped to play in any of last-place Chicago’s nine remaining games. His eight-year, $84 million contract is set to expire at the end of the season.

Toews said he’s feeling stronger, but isn’t sure if he’ll be able to play again for the Blackhawks or another team.

“Both if I’m being fully honest,” Toews said. “I feel like I’ve said it already, that I’ve gotten to the point where my health is more important.

“When you’re young and you’re playing for a Stanley Cup and everyone’s playing through something, that means something and it’s worthwhile. But I’m at that point where it feels like more damage is being done than is a good thing.”

Toews, the Blackhawks’ first-round draft pick (third overall) in 2006, joined the team in 2007 and was a pillar of Stanley Cup championship clubs in 2010, 2013 and 2015.

At the peak of his career, he was one of the NHL’s top two-way centers, winning the Selke Trophy as the league’s top defensive forward in 2013.

In 1,060 regular-season games, Toews has 371 goals and 509 assists. In 139 playoff games, he’s posted 45 goals and 74 assists, and he won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in 2010.

Toews missed the entire 2020-21 season with Chronic Immune Response System, which caused debilitating inflammation and fatigue.

He appeared in 71 games in 2021-22, then started this season with renewed energy before slowing and eventually shutting himself down.

Entering this season, it looked as if Chicago might deal him, as it did fellow star Patrick Kane, before the March trade deadline. But Kane went to the New York Rangers and Toews to injured reserve.

Toews believed he was progressing before a relapse in January left him so sore and tired that he could barely “put on my skates or roll out of bed to come to the rink.”

Toews said his progress over the past month has been “pretty encouraging” and he’s delighted to be back among his teammates. He has no timetable beyond that.

“We’re just going to go day by day here,” Chicago coach Luke Richardson said. He deserves anything he wants to try to achieve here.”

Richardson hoped Toews “can take that next step later in the week and hopefully (he) gives us the green light to go in a game.”

But Toews emphasized his long-term health and ability to lead a “normal life” is most important. He wants to go out on a positive note and not hit the ice for a game playing through excessive pain and dysfunction.

“It’s definitely on my mind that this could be my last few weeks here as a Blackhawk in Chicago,” Toews said. “It’s definitely very important for me to go out there and enjoy the game and just kind of soak it in and just really appreciate everything I’ve been able to be part of here in Chicago.”

Budding Wild star Matt Boldy more willing to shoot, and it shows

Associated PressMar 29, 2023, 9:48 AM EDT

Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Matt Boldy was unable to resist a smile in the aftermath of his second hat trick in five games for the Minnesota Wild, a young right wing and reluctant star trying to make sense of a remarkable hot streak.

Does the puck feel as if it’s automatically going in the net these days each time he shoots?

“Yeah, it does,” Boldy said in the locker room after leading the first-place Wild to a 5-1 win over Seattle. “My linemates are playing great. Hopefully you guys are giving them a lot of credit. You look at some of those goals – just putting it on a tee for me.”

This non-attention-seeker has found himself squarely in the NHL spotlight. Boldy has 11 goals in nine games since Wild superstar Kirill Kaprizov was sidelined with a lower-body injury to raise his goal total to 28, in part because he’s been more willing to shoot. With vision and stickhandling as strengths and the humility of being a second-year player, it’s easy to be in a pass-first mindset.

“Everybody kind of took turns talking to him. But it’s not that he didn’t want to. A lot of times a situation like that where a guy’s got that skillset, it’s a real unselfish quality, right?” coach Dean Evason said. “But I think he gets now that he helps the team a lot when he scores goals.”

The Wild were confident enough in Boldy’s scoring ability to commit a seven-year, $49 million contract extension to him earlier this winter, after all.

“I think I’ve always had that mentality, but sometimes you just get into spots and it comes off your stick good,” Boldy said. “When things are going well, the puck goes in the net.”’

The Wild are 6-1-2 without Kaprizov. Boldy is a big reason why.

“You go through the slumps, you learn what you need to do to score. I think he’s found a good way to be in the right spot and shoot the puck when he had a good opportunity,” center Joel Eriksson Ek said.

The Wild have only won one division title in 22 years, the five-team Northwest Division in 2007-08. They’re leading the eight-team Central Division with eight games to go, with both Colorado and Dallas too close for comfort. They haven’t won a playoff series since 2015.

With Kaprizov due back before the postseason and Boldy on this heater, a Wild team that ranks just 23rd in the league in goals per game (2.93) ought to have a better chance to advance. Eriksson Ek and Marcus Johansson have been ideal linemates for the Boston College product and Massachusetts native.

Since the Wild entered the league in the 2000-01 season, only five NHL players have had more hat tricks at age 21 or younger than Boldy with three: Patrik Laine (eight), Marian Gaborik (five), Steven Stamkos (five), Alex DeBrincat (four) and Connor McDavid (four). Boldy turns 22 next week, so there’s still time for one or two more.

“He’s big. He controls the puck a lot. He’s got a good shot, good release. He’s smart. He switches it up. He’s got good moves on breakaways. He’s a total player,” goalie Marc-Andre Fleury said. ”Fun to watch him grow this year.”

Pezzetta scores shootout winner; Canadiens beat Sabres 4-3

Associated PressMar 27, 2023, 11:57 PM EDT

Timothy T. Ludwig/USA TODAY Sports

BUFFALO, N.Y. ⁠— Brendan Gallagher and the Montreal Canadiens rallied back to avoid playoff elimination with less than three weeks left in their season. The Buffalo Sabres, meanwhile, are running out of chances to stay in the Eastern Conference wild-card hunt.

Gallagher forced overtime by scoring his 200th career goal, and Michael Pezzetta scored the decisive shootout goal in a 4-3 win over the Sabres on Monday night.

“It’s one of those things I think we earned that chance. We weren’t fantastic but we did enough on the road tonight to get a win,” Gallagher said. “Smiles all around.”

The Canadiens could laugh, especially after Pezzetta celebrated his goal by putting his stick between his legs and riding it like a wooden horse — much like former NHL tough guy Dave “Tiger” Williams did during his 14-year NHL career spanning the 1970s and 80s.

“I’m not sure we’ll see that again. One of a kind,” said Gallagher. “I’d be worried about falling over.”

Pezzetta scored by driving in from the right circle to beat Eric Comrie inside the far post. Buffalo’s Jack Quinn scored in the fourth shootout round, but was matched by Montreal’s Jesse Ylonen, whose shot from in tight managed to trickle in through Comrie.

Jordan Harris and Alex Belzile also scored for Montreal, and Jake Allen stopped 30 shots through overtime, while allowing one goal on six shootout attempts.

Montreal would have been eliminated from playoff contention for a second straight season – and two years removed from reaching the Stanley Cup Final – with any type of loss.

The Sabres squandered a 3-2 third-period lead to drop to 3-6-3 in their past 12. Buffalo also blew a chance to move to within four points of idle Pittsburgh, which holds the eighth and final playoff spot.

“Just a little hesitation,” forward JJ Peterka said of the Sabres third-period lapse. “We didn’t play with much energy and we didn’t play that aggressive as we played the two periods before. I think that was the difference.”

Buffalo’s Lukas Rousek scored a goal and added an assist while filling in for leading scorer Tage Thompson, who did not play due to an upper body injury. Peterka and defenseman Riley Stillman also scored, and Comrie stopped 38 shots through overtime, and allowed two goals on six shootout attempts.

Montreal blew two one-goal leads to fall behind 3-2 on Stillman’s goal at the 8:31 mark of the second period.

Gallagher scored on the fly by using Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin as a screen to snap in a shot inside the far left post. With the goal, Gallagher tied Bobby Rousseau for 24th on the Canadiens career scoring list.

“I liked the way we corrected ourselves, it’s a sign of maturity, in the way we stayed on task,” Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis said, in recalling how the Canadiens recently unraveled in an 8-4 loss two weeks ago to Colorado, which plays a similar up-tempo style as Buffalo.

PRIDE NIGHT

The Sabres hosted their third Pride Night, with Russian D Ilya Lyubushkin electing not to participate in warmups by citing an anti-gay Kremlin law and fears of retribution at home in Moscow, where he has family and visits in the offseason. The remainder of the team wore dark blue jerseys with the Sabres logo on the front encircled by a rainbow-colored outline.

During the first intermission, the Sabres broadcast a video in which GM Kevyn Adams said: “This is about recognizing someone’s humanity and true identity. We know there are people out there struggling with who they are, and we want them to know that they have an ally in the Buffalo Sabres.”

UP NEXT

Canadiens: At the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday night.

Sabres: Host the New York Rangers on Friday night.