Alternate NHL history: If the Penguins won the Ovechkin lottery

By Adam GretzApr 19, 2020, 5:45 PM EDT

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With 2019-20 NHL season on pause we are going to take an occasional look back at some of the alternate timelines that could have existed throughout the history of the league. Here, we contemplate what would have happened had the Pittsburgh Penguins, and not the Washington Capitals, had won the 2004 NHL draft lottery for Alex Ovechkin.

Even before the arrivals of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals had developed a fierce rivalry throughout the 1990s.

They were old Patrick Division foes. They met in the playoffs seven times between 1991 and 2000 and had some absolutely epic games, including the Petr Nedved four overtime playoff game, the night Jaromir Jagr received a 10-game suspension for making contact with a referee, and the night two coaches nearly climbed over the glass to fight each other, and a bizarre postseason scheduling conflict that infuriated former Capitals coach Ron Wilson.

The two teams were also surprise trade partners in the summer of 2001 when the Penguins sent Jaromir Jagr to Washington for Kris Beech, Michal Sivek, and Ross Lupaschuk.

In short: The two franchise already had a bitter history with each other.

During the 2003-04 season they were involved in a different kind of race. The race to the bottom of the league. The results would forever change the course of the NHL.

Following the trade of Jagr, the Penguins had completely stalled as a franchise and were a couple of years deep into a massive rebuild.

The Capitals, meanwhile, were off to a terribly disappointing start, were unable to get the best out of Jagr, and were preparing to start their own rebuild that would get kicked off with the in-season trade of Jagr to the New York Rangers and several over high profile moves.

Both teams were now in desperate need of a franchise-changing player.

That player was going to be Alex Ovechkin.

Everyone knew Ovechkin was going to be the top pick in the draft, and even though Evgeni Malkin (the eventual No. 2 overall pick) had started to become a favorite of scouts and hockey people there was still a gap between the two players, and it was a slam dunk that Ovechkin was going to be the player. He was so sought after that the Florida Panthers tried — on more than one occasion — to draft him in the 2003 class by arguing that when leap years were taken into account he would have been eligible for that draft (he missed the cut-off for the 2003 draft by four days).

The 2003-04 season ended with the Penguins finishing with the league’s worst record with 58 points, one point back of the Chicago Blackhawks and Capitals. That gave the Penguins the best odds (25 percent) of winning the 2004 draft lottery, while also guaranteeing they would pick no lower than second, meaning they were going to get one of Ovechkin or Malkin. The Blackhawks had the second-best lottery odds (they had fewer wins than Washington), with the Capitals entering the lottery with the third-best odds.

When it came time to draw the ping pong balls to determine the top pick, it ended up being the Capitals that won it, moving from third to first, pushing Pittsburgh to second and Chicago down to third.

The Capitals selected Ovechkin, the Penguins ended up getting one of the best draft consolation prizes ever in Malkin, and the Blackhawks selected … Cam Barker. Ovechkin and Malkin have gone to have Hall of Fame careers and collect a truckload of team and individual honors, while Barker just 200 mostly forgettable games in Chicago.

There are a lot of significant “what ifs” at play here.

Among them…

The 2005 Draft

Those results would have a significant impact on the next draft that would also be headlined by another Hall of Fame talent — Sidney Crosby.

With the 2004-05 regular season wiped out by a lockout, the league needed a way to handle the 2005 lottery and draft with no games producing results.

The solution was a weighted lottery that involved all 30 teams.

The odds were weighted by playoff appearances in the previous three seasons and first overall picks in the previous four drafts. Teams that had no playoff appearances and no first overall picks in those time frames were awarded three lottery balls. Those teams were the Penguins, Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, and New York Rangers. The Penguins *did* have a No. 1 pick during that time-frame, but it was via trade … not a draft lottery win.

Teams that had only one playoff appearance or one top pick were given two lottery balls.

Every other team was given one lottery ball.

This matters because if the Penguins had won the Ovechkin lottery they would have only had two lottery balls in the 2005 class and a lesser chance of selecting Crosby. It is not a guarantee that they wouldn’t have won, but they would have a lesser chance.

The long-term direction of the Penguins, Capitals, and Blackhawks

All of these teams ended up going on greatness over the decade-and-a-half that followed, combining to win seven of the 14 Stanley Cups between 2005 and 2019, while also combining for four Presidents’ Trophies and only a handful of non-playoff seasons. They have been the elite of the elite in the NHL.

But had the 2004 draft lottery gone in a different direction there is no telling where all of these teams end up.

If the Penguins had won the the 2004 draft lottery and selected Ovechkin, that means the Blackhawks would have had the No. 2 overall pick and been able to select Malkin, while the Capitals would have picked third and ended up with neither.

Maybe they do not select Barker in that spot like Chicago did, but the rest of the top-10 was Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler, Al Montoya, Rostislav Olesz, Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, and Boris Valabik. Other than Wheeler, there is not a top-line or top-pairing player in that group.

It would have given the Capitals a second lottery ball in the Crosby lottery, but that is still no guarantee of getting him. It would have been entirely possible — if not likely — that they would have ended up with none of Crosby, Ovechkin, or Malkin.

Given Ovechkin’s importance to the franchise and hockey in the nation’s capital, it could have been crushing. Would they have remained bad enough to get a top pick in a future year (like a Patrick Kane or Steven Stamkos)? Or would they have settled into long-term mediocrity?

The Blackhawks would have also gone down an entirely different path. Instead of having Barker, they would have a true franchise player and an immediate jumpstart to their rebuild. Malkin would have been an absolute game-changer from the very start and rapidly improved their short-term outlook. But that, also, could have had a long-lasting impact. Would they have been in a position to win the 2007 draft lottery and select Kane No. 1 overall? Would they have been in a position to get Jonathan Toews in 2006?

The Penguins would have almost certainly been able to build a contender around Ovechkin, but the strong likelihood of not having Crosby makes it difficult to believe they would have put three more Stanley Cup banners in the rafters.

Then there is the matter of where Crosby would have potentially ended up. New York, Columbus, and Buffalo would have been the only teams with three lottery balls in the 2005 class, all of which would have been desperate for a talent like him. Would he have turned around the Blue Jackets or Sabres? Would an extra lottery ball in the 2005 draft produced a better result for the Capitals and sent Crosby there? The possibilities are endless.

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In the end the Capitals began the 2003-04 season coming off of a 92-point, playoff season the year before and were expected to be back in the postseason. But their season going in the tank and some lottery balls bouncing their way ended up having a profound impact on them, the Penguins, the Blackhawks, and the entire NHL as a whole.

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Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Golden Knights reach second Stanley Cup Final after Game 6 win over Stars

Associated PressMay 30, 2023, 1:20 AM EDT

Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

DALLAS – William Karlsson, William Carrier and Jonathan Marchessault are finally getting another chance in the Stanley Cup Final, after the first one that came so quick for the Vegas Golden Knights.

They are going back after making sure they didn’t need another game against the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final.

Karlsson scored two goals and had an assist while Carrier and Marchessault also scored for the Knights in a 6-0 rout Monday night over the Stars, who had extended the West final to six games after losing the first three.

“We’ve worked hard as a group. That was the goal since year one, to come back here,” Marchessault said. “Our best game is yet to come. That’s the mentality we need to have.”

Reilly Smith, Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore were also part of that inaugural 2017-18 Knights season that ended in a Cup Final, when they won Game 1 against the Washington Capitals before losing four in a row.

“That first year was a whirlwind and we maybe took it for granted,” said Karlsson, who like Marchessault and Smith has played in all 83 playoff games for the franchise.

Keegan Kolesar and Michael Amadio each had a goal and an assist for Vegas, which hosts Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final against Florida on Saturday night.

The Knights led the Western Conference in the regular season with 51 wins and 111 points. The Panthers completed a four-game sweep of Carolina in the East final last Wednesday, but their 40 wins and 92 points in the regular season were the fewest among the 16 teams that began these NHL playoffs.

Adin Hill stopped 23 shots for his second career playoff shutout – both against the Stars. The other was 4-0 in Game 3 last Tuesday, when the Knights were already within one win of clinching the series before Dallas overcame 1-0 and 2-1 deficits in both Games 4 and 5.

“We kept them to the outside almost all night,” Hill said. “It was probably my easiest game of the playoffs so far tonight.”

Instead of having to face a do-or-die Game 7 at home against the Stars, coach Bruce Cassidy and the Knights got off to another fast start and never left any doubt about the outcome of this series that included three overtime games. They already had 16 of their 29 shots and a 3-0 lead after the first period.

“It was definitely our best game of the playoffs and it came at the right time,” Cassidy said. “You don’t want to let a team off the mat. After getting a 3-0 lead, there was some chatter about that.”

It was the most lopsided playoff loss for the Stars since the franchise moved south from Minnesota before the 1993-94 season.

“You just expect more from yourself in a game like this,” said Stars forward Joe Pavelski, the 38-year-old veteran still without a Stanley Cup after 17 seasons.

The Stars got captain Jamie Benn back after his two-game suspension for a cross-check to the neck area of Vegas captain Mark Stone early in Game 3. But Benn got only one shot on net in his 12 1/2 minutes and was on the ice for two of Vegas’ first three goals.

The Knights led for good when Carrier scored 3:41 into the game after a puck poked from behind the net in the vicinity of three Dallas players. Carrier skated across the front of the crease and put a backhander in the net, the ninth time this postseason the Knights scored in the first five minutes of a game.

Karlsson’s power-play goal came midway through the first period made it 2-0, and after a penalty that likely had prevented him from scoring.

Nicolas Roy took a shot that deflected off Jake Oettinger’s glove and popped up in the air behind the goalie. Karlsson was charging into the crease when Stars defenseman Esa Lindell raised his stick and swatted the puck out of play, drawing a delay of game penalty.

With the man advantage, Smith took a shot from the circle to the left, which was deflected in front by Roy and then off Oettinger’s extended skate before Karlsson knocked in the rebound. Karlsson’s franchise record 10th goal for a playoff series extended the lead to 5-0 only two minutes into the third period.

“Real disappointed for our group for the way our season ended,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said. “It was a case of Vegas going to another level.”

Notes: Oettinger had been 3-0 when the Stars were facing elimination this postseason, including Game 7 in the second round against Seattle before stopping 64 of 68 shots the past two games against the Knights. That was after Vegas had scored three goals on five shots in the first 7:10 to chase him from Game 3. … Dallas was only the fifth team to force a Game 6 in an conference final or NHL semifinal after being down 0-3, and the first since the Stars lost to Detroit in a sixth game in 2008. Only two teams got to a Game 7, which both lost – the New York Islanders to Philadelphia in 1975; and the New York Rangers to Boston in 1939.

Dellandrea scores twice in 3rd, Stars stay alive with 4-2 victory over Golden Knights

Associated PressMay 28, 2023, 9:33 AM EDT

Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

LAS VEGAS — With Dallas’ season on the line, the Stars got two critical goals from a player who was a healthy scratch the first two games of the Western Conference Final.

Ty Dellandrea‘s goals came within a 1:27 span midway through the third period, and the Stars beat the Vegas Golden Knights 4-2 to keep alive their hopes of advancing to the Stanley Cup Final to face the Florida Panthers.

“He’s one of the best guys I’ve ever played with,” said Stars goalie Jake Oettinger, who made 27 saves. “He deserves every opportunity he gets, and there’s no one happier for him than the guys in this room. It shows how special you are when you get taken out. He didn’t make it about him. He needed the opportunity to step up, and that’s what he did.”

The Stars escaped elimination for the second game in a row and head to Dallas for Game 6 down 3-2. Dallas is attempting to become the fifth team in NHL history to win a series after being down 3-0.

And look who’s back for the Stars? Captain Jamie Benn returns after a two-game suspension for his cross-check to the neck of Vegas captain Mark Stone in Game 3. That was the only game in this series that was decided early, and the Stars hadn’t even had a multigoal lead.

“I know our group, and we weren’t happy about being in the hole we were in, and they decided to do something about it,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said. “And now we’re rolling.”

The only problem for DeBoer was waiting two days to play Game 6.

“Drop the puck,” he said.

DeBoer said before the game if his team won, the pressure would shift to the Knights. Now it’s up to them to respond after twice being a period away from playing in the Stanley Cup Final and letting both opportunities slip away.

“I don’t think we brought our best the last two games,” Stone said. “We were still in a good spot to win the game. We’ve got to bring a little bit better effort and start playing a little more desperate.”

Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy said “it’s a very good question” why his team didn’t play with more desperation, but he also wasn’t thrilled with the Knights’ execution.

“We had 24 giveaways,” Cassidy said. “I’m not sure you’re beating the Arizona Coyotes in January with 24 giveaways. That’s no disrespect to Arizona, but it’s not the right way to play.”

Dellandrea found the right way to play and put together the first multigoal playoff game of his career. Jason Robertson and Luke Glendening also scored, and Thomas Harley had two assists.

Chandler Stephenson and Ivan Barbashev scored for the Knights, and Jonathan Marchessault had two assists to extend his points streak to four games. Adin Hill made 30 saves.

Dellandrea scored from the right circle to put Dallas ahead, the puck deflecting off Vegas defenseman Alex Pietrangelo with 9:25 left for a 3-2 lead. Then, Dellandrea scored from the slot with 7:58 remaining.

Dellandrea said the older players kept him motivated when he was temporarily sidelined.

“There’s no denying it’s hard,” he said. “I’m thankful for a good group of character guys, and you’ve just got to stay ready.”

The teams traded goals in the first two periods.

Jack Eichel battled two Stars players for the puck in Vegas’ offensive zone, and then Barbashev swooped in and made a fantastic move to glide past Oettinger and score with 6:24 left in the first period. The Stars wasted little time in answering when Glendening scored on a deflection less than two minutes later.

Dallas was robbed of what looked like a sure goal when Hill snagged a point-blank shot from Roope Hintz, who then threw his back in disbelief.

Like in the first period, the Knights had a goal in the second quickly answered by one from the Stars. Stephenson scored from the left circle at 16:40 of the period, and Robertson knocked his own rebounds 2:09 later to make it 2-2. Stephenson tied the Knights’ record with his eight playoff goal this year, and Robertson had his fifth of the series.

Sabres sign Minnesota defenseman Ryan Johnston to 2-year rookie contract

Associated PressMay 27, 2023, 12:17 PM EDT

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BUFFALO, N.Y. — The Buffalo Sabres ended a lengthy wait by signing Ryan Johnston to a two-year, entry level contract more than a month after the defenseman completed his senior college season at Minnesota.

Johnston will report immediately to the Sabres’ American Hockey League affiliate in Rochester, whose best-of-seven Eastern Conference final playoff series against Hershey is tied at 1.

From Southern California, Johnston is listed at 6-feet and 170 pounds and was selected 31st in 2019 draft.

His puck-moving skills fit Buffalo’s style of play, Johnston finished his college career with nine goals and 59 points in 143 career games, including four goals and 18 points in 40 games this year. He reached the NCAA’s Frozen Four in each of his final two seasons, with the Gophers losing in the semifinals last year, followed by a 3-2 overtime loss to Quinnipiac in the championship game last month.

He also had a goal and three assists in seven games representing the U.S. team that won gold at the 2021 world junior championships.

Johnston, who turns 22 in July, had the option to wait until August when he would’ve become an unrestricted free agent and eligible to sign with any team. Because Johnston was first-round pick, the Sabres would’ve been compensated with a 2024 second-round selection had he signed elsewhere.

Both sides are banking on the player’s age and college experience to enable Johnston to make the jump to the NHL within the next two seasons. The Sabres will still control Johnston’s rights as a restricted free agent once his entry-level contract expires.

Joe Pavelski scores on OT power play, Stars beat Golden Knights 3-2 to avoid West sweep

Associated PressMay 25, 2023, 11:52 PM EDT

Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports

DALLAS — Joe Pavelski admits that he probably appreciates the big playoff goals more the later he gets in his career. But they all still feel just as good, and his latest kept the season alive for the Dallas Stars.

“Just really living in the moment,” Pavelski said. “A tremendous feeling for sure, and glad we could play another game, and go from there and try to extend it.”

The 38-year-old Pavelski scored on a power play at 3:18 of overtime – a one-timer from the middle of the left circle to the far post – and the Stars avoided a sweep in the Western Conference Final with a 3-2 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights.

Jason Robertson scored twice for his first career multigoal playoff game for Dallas, which played without suspended captain Jamie Benn.

“We’re looking for goals and that’s kind of my responsibility I put on myself,” Robertson said. “I know these playoffs have been tough. … I was able to get the bounces that we needed tonight.”

Jake Oettinger had 37 saves, two nights after the 24-year-old Stars goalie was pulled 7:10 into Game 3 after allowing three goals on five shots.

The Stars had the man advantage in overtime after Brayden McNabb‘s high-sticking penalty on Ty Dellandrea. Fifty seconds into the power play, Pavelski scored on a pass from Miro Heiskanen. They won for the first time in their five OT games this postseason – Vegas won the first two games of this series past regulation.

It was only the second Vegas penalty of the game, both high-sticking calls against McNabb. His penalty on Pavelski late in the first period set up the power play when Robertson scored his first goal with some nifty stickwork.

Pavelski, in his 15th NHL season and still looking for his first Stanley Cup, scored his ninth goal in 12 games this postseason, but his first in five games. He has 73 career postseason goals – the most for U.S.-born players and the most among all active players.

“He’s ageless. … I’ve seen that movie over and over again. Never gets old,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said. “He lives for those moments and he wants to be in those situations. Always has, and delivers almost every time.”

Benn was suspended two games by the NHL on Wednesday for his cross-check with his stick landing near the neck of Vegas captain Mark Stone in the first two minutes of Game 3 on Tuesday night. Benn also will miss Game 5 on Saturday night in Las Vegas.

William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault scored for Vegas. Adin Hill had his five-game winning streak snapped. He made 39 saves, including a game-saver with his extended left leg without about two minutes left in regulation on rookie Fredrik Olofsson’s swiping try in his first career playoff game.

“Our effort wasn’t good enough. Closing a series is probably the hardest game in a series, right, so it just wasn’t good enough from our group,” Marchessault said. “It was still a one-goal game in overtime. It was right there for us.”

Karlsson and Marchessault are among six of the original Vegas players still on the team from the inaugural 2017-18 season that ended with the Knights playing for the Stanley Cup, though they lost in five games to the Washington Capitals after winning the first game.

Vegas missed a chance to complete a sweep, a night after the Florida Panthers finished off a sweep of the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final.

Vegas took a 2-1 lead midway through the second period when Marchessault, after whacking his stick on the back of Ryan Suter in front of the net, scored on a pass between the Stars defenseman’s legs from McNabb, another original Golden Knight.

Robertson’s tying goal late in that period came on a ricochet off the back board just seconds after he had another shot hit the post. That was the fourth goal of this series, and sixth in the playoffs, after this regular season becoming the first Dallas player with a 100-point season.

On his first goal late in the first that tied it 1-1, Robertson deflected Heiskanen’s shot from just inside the blue line up into the air. As Hill was trying to secure the puck into his glove, Robertson knocked it free and then reached around and swiped the puck into the net with his stick parallel to the ice.

With former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson and wrestling great Ric Flair both in the building wearing Stars jerseys Dallas was avoided being swept in the playoffs for the first time since 2001 against St. Louis in the second round. This was the Stars’ 21st playoff series since then.

The Golden Knights scored first again – though not like those three quick goals in Game 3 that led to the earliest exit ever for Oettinger.

Karlsson pushed the puck up and skated to the front of the net after passing to Nicolas Roy, whose pass through traffic went off a Dallas stick before Reilly Smith got it just inside the right circle and took a shot. Karlsson’s deflection past Oettinger only 4:17 into the game was his eighth goal this postseason.

“There were a lot of rush chances,” said Smith, also with Vegas since the beginning. “I don’t think we did a good enough job of making it difficult on them. So we get another opportunity in two days.”