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Will Predators prove that trading P.K. Subban is worth it?

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The Nashville Predators made a bold move in trading P.K. Subban to the New Jersey Devils during draft weekend. While the initial package is downright pitiful, the logic is that it opens up space for future moves, with all signs pointing toward serious flirtation with Matt Duchene.

Which brings us to the $9M questions: will the Predators actually be a better team in 2019-20, and in the long term?

With Matt Duchene reportedly slated to visit the Predators on this very Thursday (according to Pierre LeBrun), it only seems fitting to dive into the situation right now. There’s a lot to chew on here, so like Subban during the 2017 Stanley Cup Final, you might feel the need to grab some Listerine.

The theme seems to be the word “over,” and not just because it could take Predators fans a long time to get over their team trading P.K.

Overreacting to Subban’s struggles?

As much as I roll my eyes at people going a little over-the-top while discussing Subban’s decline (plenty of wiser people are with me in expecting Subban to deliver value to the Devils), there actually is some argument to trading Subban.

Injuries hindered Subban, and it’s possible that they might linger, especially since he’s 30. If you follow the Bill Belichick model of getting rid of players “a year early, not a year late,” then maybe the Predators simply bit the bullet.

That’s tougher to stomach when you consider how poor the return was for P.K., though. Honestly, even if the Predators wanted to eventually trade Subban, they almost certainly would have received more in a trade if they merely gave P.K. a chance to climb back up in public perception. Again, it’s not that hard to fathom a rebound season for Subban, so the only reason you’d panic-trade Subban now is because you absolutely must have a free agent like Matt Duchene.

Such a plan is dubious, but beyond that, was a putrid P.K. trade the only way to clear space? From bribing someone to take Kyle Turris and/or Nick Bonino, or possibly something more reasonable in parting ways with Craig Smith or Mikael Granlund, it’s tough to digest the idea that the only way forward was surgery at the scale of getting so little for Subban.

Putting a ton of trust in Dante Fabbro, an admittedly promising 21-year-old defenseman who nonetheless only played 10 NHL games so far, seems dubious. Maybe this is as much about soothing concerns about trading Subban by plucking at the dulcet strings of potential. Nonetheless, GM David Poile himself said that Fabbro’s play affected the Subban trade decision, as The Athletic’s Adam Vingan reported (sub required).

“The makeup of our defense is still very good,” Poile said. “I probably would not have made this trade if Dante Fabbro hadn’t signed with the Predators and hadn’t played at the end of the year and hadn’t played as well as he did. That gave me good confidence that … we could still have a good defense and trade somebody like P.K.”

The key, of course, isn’t for Fabbro to be better, or even close to, Subban. Instead, it’s about a net gain. Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee that the Predators are likely to get what they pay for.

Soon to overpay Duchene?

Look, if the Predators were opening up all of this money to bring in Artemi Panarin, then I’d be sold. He’s a true superstar, he’s younger than Subban, and he’d give Nashville a gamebreaker.

Instead, virtually every sign points to Duchene being the Predators’ target, and while I really like Duchene, I like Duchene a whole lot more at his expiring price ($6M) than the massive raise he is expected to receive. TSN’s Darren Dreger spoke about $9.5M, and that maybe being conservative. LeBrun also points to $9.5M, while his Athletic colleague Craig Custance places Duchene in the $8-$10M tier.

From viewpoints that are more traditionally minded, to those with a more analytics bent, just about no one values Duchene at that level. It’s one thing if Duchene received a slight raise as Evolving Wild’s projections would indicate, but at up to eight figures, a potential Duchene deal approaches an albatross level.

As much as Subban’s $9M is scary at age 30, it also runs out after 2021-22, really mitigating the risks. Duchene is 28 with a January birthday, and chances are, he’ll cost as much as Subban per season, and for more term.

Yes, there’s the chance that the tax breaks and country music might lure Duchene to sign a deal that’s friendlier than he would in, say, Montreal. The Predators have developed a knack for swinging bargain deals, after all.

Still, with the way Kevin Hayes and others have raised the earnings bar, and with this possibly being Duchene’s best stab at big bucks, can we really expect huge savings for Nashville or any other suitor?

With Ryan Johansen coming in at $8M, Turris getting $6M, and Nick Bonino at $4M, a massive Duchene deal could leave the Predators with an expensive center group, but not necessarily great bang for the buck.

Overrating Josi

The Predators didn’t just move Subban to afford Duchene or a free agent addition; they also likely want to pave the way to extend captain Roman Josi.

Even Josi’s critics will admit that, in the grand scheme of things, he’s a huge steal at $4 million per season. The Predators won’t enjoy that luxury after 2018-19, however, and the Predators open themselves up to signing Josi for a similar contract to that of Subban, only it could end up being even riskier.

The analytics community has been debating Josi’s value for years, right down to now-Devils analytics lead Tyler Dellow breaking the Josi vs. Subban argument down for The Athletic back in 2017. While Josi puts up big points and is tremendous in transition, his possession stats often leave a lot to be desired.

Dellow summarized some of the Josi debate with the line:

What if he’s actually just a guy who puts up empty calorie points and doesn’t actually drive success in a meaningful way?

Honestly, with Josi at $4M, the debate seemed like little more than interesting “Who’s better?” fodder. Now the real bill is looming, though, and the Predators could really put themselves in a bind if they make the wrong calls.

The thing is, even if Josi is better, the Predators probably need to think that he’s a lot better than Subban, and that he’ll stay that way, or the risks will really start to stack up.

Josi is really just a year and change younger than Subban, as Josi turned 29 on June 1. He’s been savagely underpaid at that $4M since 2013-14, so even a “hometown discount” would probably at least meet Subban’s $9M per year. And, again, the risk level would likely be much higher. While Josi’s next deal would start in 2020-21, Subban’s would be just about finished, as his $9M expires after 2021-22.

Risky business.

Stating the possible scenario over again

So, to review:

  • The Predators were reasonable in trading Subban, but they probably chose the worst time to do so, landing very little beyond cap space.
  • If the Predators sign Matt Duchene, they’re almost certain to lock him down to a riskier contract than the one P.K. has. And Duchene might not even be more valuable than Subban.
  • If the Predators moved Subban in part to retain Roman Josi, then a Josi extension is highly likely to be riskier than the P.K. contract. There’s also a healthy debate about which defenseman is actually more valuable, especially since Josi would be 30 when his next contract kicks in.
  • Maybe Nashville goes the prudent route and doesn’t sign Duchene and/or Josi. But, if so, why trade Subban for dimes on the dollar? The lose-lose situations start to pile up a bit.

Yikes, right? This all sounds really bad to me. I don’t know about you.

An overview of a best-case scenario

To be fair, maybe this could work out.

  • Duchene takes the sort of discount that William Karlsson gave Vegas, and Duchene’s speed and shot make a big difference for the Predators.
  • Josi also takes a hometown discount. That’s not outrageous, although a hometown discount could still be enormously expensive. Yet, maybe Josi justifies the cost, at least in the early years of such a contract?

Even in that rather sunny scenario, the Predators might not make the strides they’re currently tripping over their feet to make. As much as this is all about Subban, Duchene, and Josi, it’s important to get other things right.

Overlooking the real problems?

Are the Predators treating symptoms rather than causes? It’s not like Duchene would be the first major addition Nashville’s made to try to fix their offensive struggles.

Obviously, Kyle Turris was a big part of the Matt Duchene trade involving Colorado and Ottawa, only to see his stock plummet. The Predators have also brought in Mikael Granlund, Nick Bonino, Wayne Simmonds, and others to try to boost their offense, and the results have largely been disappointing.

With that in mind, is it possible that this team is simply not being optimized by Peter Laviolette? Duchene is the type of scorer who may animate the corpse that is Nashville’s power play, but to what extent? Much of those issues could be systemic, and it’s unclear if Laviolette & Co. know how to solve those problems.

If the Predators sign Duchene, only to enjoy minimal results, it really must be asked: at what point are you just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic? Is it possible that the Predators should have given Turris, Granlund, and others more time to find their games before taking the drastic measure to trade away Subban?

For all this talk of overreacting, overpaying, and overrating, maybe they haven’t truly understood why the Predators’ offense is underachieving?

***

Look, I firmly believe that Subban, Duchene, and Josi are all very good players. There are scenarios where these moves work out extremely well for the Predators, even long term.

Considering the likelihood that Duchene and Josi will both sign expensive, risky contracts — ones that end up being bigger dice rolls than the Subban deal Nashville had to get rid of — I can’t help but shake the feeling that the Predators might be doing all of this work, only to end up in a similar spot for 2019-20, and potentially a far worse situation down the line.

Predators GM David Poile’s enjoyed some maestro moments, and maybe he’s saving his best for these challenging times.

Even so, there’s a strong chance that history will repeat itself, and the Predators will find themselves in a situation much like the Canadiens after trading P.K. Subban: feeling embarrassed, regretful, and overwhelmed with a bunch of extra invitations to golf.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

The Buzzer: Hutton shuts door for Sabres; Pastrnak’s pasta day

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Three Stars

1. Carter Hutton, Buffalo Sabres

Are the Sabres for real? Time will tell, but it’s clear that Hutton is on fire.

Buffalo fattened its lead to 3-0 just a few minutes into the second period, and were able to sit on that edge, even as the Kings fired a lot of biscuits at Hutton. The 33-year-old goalie generated a 47-save shutout on Thursday, giving him a two-game shutout streak after he stopped all 25 shots against the Stars on Oct. 14.

Hutton’s now 5-0-0 on the season, and only allowed seven goals so far.

There are some Sabres who are inevitably going to cool down. That’s not meant to be an insult; instead, it’s pretty much unavoidable because they’re playing at such a high level. Hutton is up there with the hottest skaters on that team.

2. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins

It honestly might be a little on-the-nose for Pastrnak to have such a great “National Pasta Day” by scoring two goals and one assist for Boston on Thursday.

Then again, it’s really just another day for Pastrnak.

After a quiet start to 2019-20 where he didn’t score any points in two games, Pastrnak’s been boiling lately, with 13 points in his last five contests, and seven points over his last two games.

The only thing that went a little stale for the 23-year-old was that the Bruins couldn’t win, as the Lightning ended up winning via a shootout.

3. Casey Mittelstadt, Buffalo Sabres

Normally, tiebreakers would go to players who are on different teams, but while there were plenty of other strong performances on Thursday, Mittelstadt and Pastrnak were the top scorers with three points.

Like Pastrnak, Mittelstadt managed two goals and one assist. You could definitely make a case that Mittelstadt deserves the second star, as one of his goals ended up being the game-winner for Buffalo.

Either way, it was quite the way for Mittelstadt to make the most of his modest ice time of 12:19 on Thursday. The sophomore has been a feast-or-famine scorer so far in 2019-20, collecting two assists to start the season, going six games without a point, and then managing three points on Thursday.

Most painful moment of the night

The Wild are a mess, but Joel Eriksson Ek showed that they’re still able to show courage. He blocked three shots from Shea Weber, which left Ek in a walking boot, but gained Weber’s respect, according to The Athletic’s Michael Russo.

Those moments were even more painful that these GIFs of unintentional comedy from the Kings.

Highlight of the Night

Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck robbed Islanders rookie Oliver Wahlstrom:

Factoids

 

Scores

TBL 4 – BOS 3 (SO)
MTL 4 – MIN 0
NJD 5 – NYR 2
VAN 4 – STL 3 (SO)
NYI 3 – WPG 1
CGY 5 – DET 1
ARI 5 – NSH 2
VGK 3 – OTT 2 (SO)
BUF 3 – LAK 0

MORE:
• Pro Hockey Talk’s Stanley Cup picks.
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Things are so bad for Wild, even Boudreau’s getting called out

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The Minnesota Wild suffered through a miserable and embarrassing offseason, and things really haven’t gotten much better through the first two weeks of 2019-20.

Thursday presented a buffet table of badness for the Wild:

  • They fell 4-0 to the Montreal Canadiens, and didn’t muster much of a fight. Carey Price only needed to make 17 saves for the shutout. You’d think there would have been more of a pushback being that Montreal went up 3-0 during the first period, yet the Habs generated an 18-11 SOG advantage through the final 40 minutes despite holding a chunky lead.
  • Minnesota is now 1-6-0. The Wild’s only win was a 2-0 snoozer against the lowly Ottawa Senators.
  • The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that the Wild held a 10-minute players-only meeting, often a telltale sign that tensions are mounting.
  • In a truly rare and juicy moment, Russo points out Jason Zucker is asking more from everyone … including head coach Bruce Boudreau.

“I think more than (a meeting’s) going to have to jumpstart us, to be honest with you,” Zucker said. “It’s going to be each individual guy from Bruce on down. Bruce has got to be better. We’ve got to be better. Everybody’s got to be better. That’s it.”

Walking off the ledge in a few ways

So, yeah, the Wild are pretty miserable right now. In falling to 1-6-0, the Wild have been outscored by 15 goals through this young season.

But it is early. The Wild have 74 games remaining on their regular season schedule. They’re not even really alone in the Central Division, either, as the Dallas Stars came into 2019-20 with bigger expectations (and more dollars spent) and find themselves sputtering to a 1-6-1 start.

There’s also the matter of it possibly being better, in the long-term, for the Wild to be really bad in the short-term.

You can also consider context. The Wild have played six of their first seven games on the road, and while they beat a bad team for their lone win, Minnesota’s faced stiff competition overall. Five of their sixth losses came against teams that made the playoffs in 2018-19, and the Canadiens weren’t that far from doing the same.

Those excuses might not do much for a team with frayed emotions. Boudreau and his players would probably roll their eyes at such comments.

Yet, for a team who would probably need some luck to be more than a bubble team, factors like quality of opponents and tough road trips could really make the difference. Especially when you stagger into the season after a bewildering and humiliating summer, and didn’t exactly gain a lot of confidence in the way 2018-19 ended, either.

Things are bleak for the Wild, and it’s possible that they stay that way.

It’s also early, though, so this is a good time for the Wild to gather themselves, and maybe get back on track.

There also still could be a lot of nights like these, although you won’t see Boudreau’s name mentioned like this very often — assuming he can survive the peaks and valleys of this season as Wild head coach, in general. In other words, feel free to break out your cringe-inducing puns about this being a “wild” ride.

MORE:
• Pro Hockey Talk’s Stanley Cup picks.
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Rangers point to power play struggles after loss to Devils

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The Rangers were ecstatic to get back on the ice after a four-day hiatus from game action, but the result was not what they had in mind.

Jack Hughes recorded his first point, P.K. Subban netted his first goal for the Devils and New Jersey snapped several droughts in its 5-2 victory over the Rangers on Thursday.

Tony DeAngelo and Jesper Fast both scored while Alexandar Georgiev made 33 saves in the Rangers’ second consecutive loss.

Rangers power play woes

The Rangers will need their power play to fire on all cylinders if they expect to contend for a playoff spot this season.

Over the past two games, the Rangers have failed on 10 consecutive man-advantage opportunities, including six missed chances against the Devils.

“That’s probably as sluggish as we looked on the power play all year,” Rangers coach David Quinn said. “You can’t alter your approach when you don’t score a goal. You can build momentum off a good power play if you don’t score. I just thought we started getting away from the things we have been doing during the exhibition season and the three games we played.”

Seemingly, the momentum can swing the other way, too. The Rangers’ power play failures began to pile up through the course of 60 minutes.

“As the game goes on, the more chances there are, the more the opponent knows what you are trying to do,” defenseman Jacob Trouba said after playing over seven minutes on the PP. It almost gets a little tougher as the game goes on and you have that many power plays.”

Four games and a handful of opportunities provide a small sample size in terms of power play production. But, without consistent offensive production on special teams, the Rangers are going to struggle to win games.

DeAngelo aims to carve out role

DeAngelo notched his first goal of the season to open the scoring at 6:02 of the first period. The offensive-minded defenseman sensed a scoring opportunity and cashed in on the rebound.

This past summer, DeAngelo was forced to sign a one-year contract due to lack of leverage during negotiations. The 23-year-old began the season knowing he would have to prove himself on a daily basis.

A right-handed defenseman with the ability to move the puck and potential to run a power play is a sought-after commodity in the NHL. Teams are often scrambling to fill that need or rearranging other pieces throughout their lineup to cover up an obvious hole.

However, DeAngelo is on a team that has multiple options at the position due to a busy summer. The Rangers acquired Jacob Trouba and added another offensive-minded defenseman in Adam Fox, essentially filling the role DeAngelo was supposed to play.

But the Rangers are doing their part to give DeAngelo an opportunity to dress consistently. In order to make it work, Brendan Smith has been playing as a fourth line forward to give the backend an extra penalty killer.

For DeAngelo, a goal is a step in the right direction, but he will need to continue to demonstrate to David Quinn and the coaching staff that he is worthy of a spot in the Rangers everyday lineup.

Strange schedule

In a game built off rhythm and tendencies, the Rangers have had to overcome a few strange schedule quirks to open up the 2019-20 NHL season.

The Blueshirts have only played in four games over the past 16 days and have had trouble fine-tuning the specific nuances of the sport.

“We have to understand situational hockey. The good news is we get to play more hockey and understand it better, Quinn said. “It’s tough to emulate it in practice. We are going to be able to draw from what happened today and be better for it tomorrow.”

It is not often a team looks forward to a back-to-back, but the Rangers are eager to play with more regularity. On Friday, they play against the Washington Capitals before beginning a five-game homestand.

“We want to play hockey games, it’s the only way you can really get better in this league,” Quinn said.

MORE: Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV Schedule

Scott Charles is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @ScottMCharles.

A night of ‘Finally’ for Devils in win vs. Rangers

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It wasn’t always pretty for the New Jersey Devils against the New York Rangers on Thursday night.

The Devils’ first win of 2019-20 wasn’t a work of art. Jack Hughes‘ first NHL point wasn’t all that aesthetically pleasing, either. But the Devils will take it. And being that this came against the Rangers, the sweet will outweigh the bitter even more.

After falling behind 1-0 early, New Jersey fired off three consecutive goals to eventually secure a 5-2 win in front of a mixture of Rangers and Devils fans in Newark. The “workmanlike” nature of the victory really could be summarized by Hughes’ first point not exactly coming as you’d draw it up: an assist that deflected off of Miles Wood‘s backside, essentially.

Let’s work through some of the storylines in this one.

Breaking some droughts, but still some work to do.

Again, the Devils really needed this win, as they came into Thursday at 0-4-2 (now 1-4-2). The Rangers likely felt a little rusty, as they last played on Saturday, and have only appeared in four games, slipping to 2-2-0.

Along with finally getting that first win, and Hughes getting his first point, the Devils finally scored on the power play. New Jersey went 0-for-18 through their first six games, so Kyle Palmieri‘s power-play marker is another source of relief.

Heck, with a long-distance empty-net goal, P.K. Subban also scored his first goal with the Devils.

A pessimist would argue that an empty-net goal only counts for so much, and that Hughes’ assist wasn’t impressive, but those also mean fewer annoying questions during interviews. Like Victor Mete after scoring his first NHL goal, the Devils can just play.

But, yeah, they need to be better. Sure, they finally scored on the power play, but they only went 1-for-7 on Thursday, so they still need to find some answers.

(I hate to say it, but they really need to explore the question of whether Wayne Simmonds is still a top power-play unit guy. He’s struggled in recent years, and while the effort still seems to be there, the “finish” might not be. He has zero goals and one assist through seven games. Maybe it would be better to replace him with Nikita Gusev, who didn’t need much space to score after Artemi Panarin broke a stick on Thursday? A group including Gusev, Hughes, Subban, Palmieri, and Taylor Hall could be lethal.)

An answer in net?

It’s nice to see Cory Schneider possibly being healthy, or healthier, as his free-fall from elite to poor goalie is likely due in part to injuries. The bottom line is that Schneider might just be a backup (or worse) at this point in his career, though. Schneider’s 0-3-0 record and putrid .876 save percentage provide little hope that he’s just going to turn back the clock.

So the Devils really don’t have much of a choice: they need to see how far Mackenzie Blackwood can bring them.

The 22-year-old was off to a rocky start of his own this season, but was sharp on Thursday, stopping 29 out of 31 shots, including six SOG from a Rangers PP that went 0-for-6. After one great stop via the scary one-timer combination of Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, Subban gave Blackwood a tap on the head in appreciation. Rightfully so, I’d say.

Last season, Blackwood generated a .918 save percentage over 23 games (21 of which were starts). That’s not a huge sample size, but being that he was a second-rounder (42nd overall in 2015) and Schneider looks shaky-at-best, the Devils have every incentive to send him out there and see if he can give them at least league-average goaltending.

No.1 vs. No. 2 isn’t there yet

There are moments where it’s already captivating to watch Hughes, right down to nerding out when he does some simple-but-impressive skating, such as using his edges or accelerating with impressive speed.

But if we want Hughes vs. Kaapo Kakko to become a rivalry worth watching, we will have to lean on stronger sequels.

Both the Rangers and Devils seem like works in progress, yet with all of the talent they’ve added, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more fireworks in future meetings.

MORE:
• Pro Hockey Talk’s Stanley Cup picks.
• Your 2019-20 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.