For the San Jose Sharks, priority No. 1 has been checked off their offseason to-do list.
That bit came on Monday morning when the Sharks re-signed defenseman Erik Karlsson to an eight-year deal worth what reports suggest will be $92 million once the team makes it official.
That’s a hefty chunk of change for one of the game’s premier rearguards, and rightly so. A two-time Norris Trophy winner, Karlsson has game-breaking capabilities from the back end. It’s not surprising that he’s one of the highest paid players in the NHL.
But behind the elation general manager Doug Wilson is feeling at the moment, there also has to be a bit of trepidation.
With Karlsson’s contract expected to be in the $11.5 million AAV region, that leaves the Sharks with roughly $13 million in cap space remaining and only 16 players signed, including 11 forwards.
It’s safe to assume that the end of an era is coming for someone in the Bay Area.
Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski are both unrestricted free agents come July 1. Thornton has signed one-year deals with the club for several years now. Pavelski enters the free agent arena for the first time in five seasons after completing the final year of a five-year, $30 million deal.
Both are integral parts of the Sharks. And the Sharks may have to let them walk this time.
At 39, Thornton’s on-ice play isn’t worth the $5 million he made last season. He’s the de facto leader of the team, but the Sharks simply can’t afford him at that price point again. If they want him back, a low-salary, bonus-laden contract could be an option.
Losing Pavelski, their captain, would also be a blow.
Despite being 34 (35 next season), Pavelski had 38 goals and 64 points in 75 games last season. Not bad for $6 million, and perhaps he goes the Thornton route for a few years and signs one-year deals that allow the Sharks some breathing room.
Does Pavelski deserve a longer-term commitment? Sure. But the Sharks are once again going all-in with the Karlsson signing and this might be Pavelski’s best shot at a Stanley Cup ring as a captain of the team.
Aside from the two superstars, the Sharks need to make sure they lock down some of their younger talent.
Nyquist is likely the odd-man out here. Going by Evolving Wild’s free agent model projection, Nyquist, 29, could earn a six-year deal in the $5.7 million range. That’s too rich if you’re planning on keeping Thornton and Pavelski around.
Donskoi, 27, is projected to get a three-year deal in the $3 million average annual value region.
And then there’s the restricted free agent crop.
Evolving Wild has Meier taking a six-year deal with a cap hit close to $6 million while Labanc is more affordable at three years and around $3.5 million.
Remember, the Sharks have $13 million to play with following the Karlsson extension.
For the sake of argument, let’s say Pavelski gets $7 million and Thornton gets $5 million. That’s $12 million and roughly $1 million left on the cap.
See the problem? And how many extensions do the Sharks want to give older players? Logan Couture‘s six-year, $8 million AAV deal kicks in next season. He’s 30. Brent Burns, 34, has six more years left on a deal that’s paying him the same amount as Couture per season.
The Sharks only need to look further down on a California state map to see Los Angeles and the devastating effects handing big contracts to old players can have.
Still, banners fly forever and the Kings have two of them and the Sharks have zero.
And the point of this exercise is that someone has to go.
The question now is, who?