PHT Power Rankings: Why your team won’t win the Stanley Cup

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There can only be one team lifting the Stanley Cup at the end of the season, and that means the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against your favorite team going into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Chances are, your team is going to lose at some point over the next two months.

In this week’s PHT Power Rankings we keep that in mind and, just as we did at the start of the playoffs a year ago, take a look at why your team can not win it all this season.

Teams are ranked in order their ability to overcome whatever weakness it is they may have.

[NBC 2019 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB]

1. Tampa Bay Lightning — They have to actually finish a big series. In the past four years they have lost two Eastern Conference Finals where they had 3-2 leads and a Cup Final where they had a 2-1 lead. In all three situations their offense was completely shut down at the worst possible time. A fluke? An unfortunate, poorly timed coincidence? Some kind of mental block? All of the above? Whatever it is, until they actually do it that question is going to keep following them around.

2. Washington Capitals — The defending champs have started to play like champions since the trade deadline. The concern here: They are still not a great defensive team and the loss of Michal Kempny will only make that worse. What they do have, however, are a couple of Hall of Fame forwards and a goalie that, even though he didn’t have a great regular season, always seems to play his best hockey in the playoffs. That recipe worked a year ago.

3.  Vegas Golden Knights — They have been a dominant possession team in the second half and can roll three quality lines that can all beat you. Their struggles down the stretch were mainly related to the fact Malcolm Subban isn’t Marc-Andre Fleury. With Fleury back and healthy, and assuming the bad version of him does not show up, this is going to be a brutal team to deal with. That is the big concern, though: Which Fleury will they get. No goalie in the league has been more hot and cold than him this season. He has been great in games, and awful in others.

4. Boston Bruins — One of the best teams in the NHL this season despite some brutal injury luck that robbed them of some of their best, most important players for extended periods of time. The biggest concern I see here, other than still wondering if they are deep enough beyond their top forwards, is the same thing every team in the Atlantic Division bracket has … they are the best teams in the league, they all have to play each other, and somebody has to lose.

5. St. Louis Blues — They have been one of the hottest teams in the league for months now and have some of the best underlying numbers in the NHL since Craig Berube took over behind the bench. It’s easy to write their turnaround off as them simply catching lightning in a bottle with Jordan Binnington, but since Jan. 1 the Blues have been one of the best 5-on-5 teams in hockey. They don’t really have a glaring weakness and the two top teams in their bracket are there for the taking. If you wanted to look for an issue it is probably concern over how long Binnington can keep playing at this level or if he will eventually turn into a pumpkin at midnight.

6. Nashville Predators — I want to say a lot of their struggles at times this season, especially as it relates to their offense, have been because of all the games players like Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson missed. They still have what might be the best defense in hockey and two really good goalies, but their offense — both at even-strength and on the power play — has been a struggle this season.

7. Calgary Flames — I love everything about this team except for the fact I don’t entirely trust David Rittich or Mike Smith. That is the wrong position to have questions about.

8. Pittsburgh Penguins — They could win the Cup or they could lose Round 1 in five games. Nobody really knows what this team will do or what it is capable of, and that is kind of the problem here. They are just too inconsistent. There are only a handful of teams in the NHL that can match the star power they have at the top of the lineup, and Matt Murray has been better than anybody gives him credit for being this season, but their defensive play is severely lacking at times and I don’t know that you can trust their second and third pairs on the blue line.

9. Toronto Maple Leafs — They are really good, and their struggles are probably magnified more than the struggles of other teams because of where they play and the expectations around them. I just don’t know if they are good enough to beat Boston and Tampa Bay in the first two rounds should it come to that. There might be six teams in the entire league better than them, and two of them will probably be standing directly in front of them in the first two rounds.

10. Carolina Hurricanes — Since January 1 the Hurricanes have been kind of outstanding. Their points percentage since then? Fourth best in the NHL. Shot attempt and scoring chance numbers at even-strength? All among the top-10. Sebastian Aho is a star, Teuvo Teravainen has had a great year, Nino Niederreiter gave them another finisher they desperately needed, and Andrei Svechnikov‘s rookie season is better than you realize. Love the way they play and love their approach to the game. My big concern is how long Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney can maintain their current level of play.

[Related: Hurricanes’ long road back to the playoffs]

11. San Jose Sharks — Goaltending matters in the playoffs and history is not kind to playoff teams that have goaltending like this, no matter how good their regular season record is or how good their roster looks on paper. This is a real problem and it might cost them the Stanley Cup.

12. Winnipeg Jets — I don’t know what to make of this team. A couple of weeks ago they looked to be getting into playoff mode and playing some of their best hockey of the season, but for two months now they have been getting obliterated in shot attempts and scoring chances and have only been a very mediocre even-strength team all season. They do have great talent up front that could always carry them on a run, but something is missing this season.

13. New York Islanders — Mathew Barzal is developing into a star, but this roster lacks the type of impact talent after him that every Cup winner needs to have. Since February 1 they are 24th in the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempt differential, 16th in scoring chance differential, and are only 6-7-1 against playoff teams during that stretch. I could see them winning a round with their goaltending, and then giving somebody a scare in Round 2. But I just don’t see the high-end talent here to win it all this season.

14. Columbus Blue Jackets — They were a mess in that first month after the trade deadline, but the Blue Jackets are kind of quietly heading into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league winning seven of their past eight. That is the good news. The bad news is they are stuck in the divisional bracket from hell and have to have face the Lightning in Round 1, and if they get through that, have to play the winner of Boston-Toronto in Round 2. And as much I hate to be that person to mention a narrative built entirely around small sample sizes, because I usually loathe that person, but Sergei Bobrovsky in the playoffs … yeah … it has been a problem.

15. Dallas Stars — Their goaltending gives them a chance every single night, but eventually Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov are going to get shut down for a couple of games. Once that happens there is nobody else on this team that is a threat to score.

16. Colorado Avalanche — They have the same depth concerns as the Stars without the great goaltending to back it all up.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Islanders sign Bo Horvat to 8-year deal after trading for him

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The New York Islanders signed center Bo Horvat to an eight-year contract less than a week after acquiring him in a trade with the Vancouver Canucks.

The team announced the contract Sunday, after their first practice following the All-Star break. Horvat’s deal is worth $68 million and carries a $8.5 million salary cap hit through the 2030-31 season.

General manager Lou Lamoriello joked to reporters at practice on Long Island that Horvat’s contract was “too long and it’s too much money.”

The Islanders sent forward Anthony Beauvillier, prospect Aatu Raty and a protected first-round pick to the Canucks for Horvat on Monday. He was set to be an unrestricted free agent after the season, and the trade was a result of Vancouver and Horvat’s camp being unable to reach a deal last summer.

Lamoriello and Horvat expressed confidence about getting a deal done after the trade. The 27-year-old has scored more than 30 goals for a second consecutive season.

Horvat was chosen as an All-Star and played for the Pacific Division on Saturday despite the trade. He played with longtime Canucks teammate Elias Pettersson and combined on one last goal together before parting ways.

“I want to get going,” Horvat said Saturday after the All-Star 3-on-3 tournament. “That’s enough. Let’s start playing some games and getting to know the guys. I just want to start playing hockey again.”

Horvat was on vacation with his family in Orlando when he was traded. He said coach Lane Lambert wanted him to enjoy All-Star festivities before getting rolling with the Islanders, who play at the Philadelphia Flyers on Monday.

“Obviously getting my legs under me is going to be No. 1 and getting systems down and obviously chemistry with the new linemates and stuff like that,” Horvat said.

After facing the Flyers and Seattle, Horvat will play against his former team when Vancouver visits UBS Arena on Thursday.

Bruins rolling, rest of NHL making final push for playoffs

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SUNRISE, Fla. — Bruce Cassidy’s Vegas Golden Knights lost eight of 10 games going into the All-Star break after leading the Pacific Division at the midway point of the NHL season.

They’re still safely in a playoff spot in the Western Conference, but they can’t keep it up.

“We’re still in a good position – that’s the way we look at it,” Cassidy said. “There’s not too many teams that can cruise home the last 30 games in this league, and we’re certainly not one of them.”

Cassidy’s old team, the Boston Bruins, probably could. They’re atop the NHL and running away with the Atlantic Division.

With 39 wins and 83 points through 51 games, Boston is on pace to break the record for the best regular season in NHL history. The Carolina Hurricanes, who beat Boston in seven games in the first round last year, are next in the standings at 76 points.

“Top to bottom, there’s no weaknesses,” Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour said.

The Bruins are in a class of their own, but the playoff races behind them in the East and West should be hot down the stretch with roughly 30 games to go before the chase for the Stanley Cup begins.

METROPOLITAN DIVISION

The Hurricanes rode a seven-game winning streak into the break, putting some fear into the Bruins in the race for the Presidents’ Trophy and home-ice advantage through the postseason. Winger Max Pacioretty re-tearing his right Achilles tendon five games into his return didn’t slow them down, and if their goaltending holds up, Carolina stands a good chance of reaching the East final.

“This team, it’s a special group of guys,” said Brind’Amour, who captained Carolina to the Cup in 2006 and is in his fifth year as coach. “We kind of show that nightly. It’s just very consistent, and they take their job real serious. They do it right.”

The second-place New Jersey Devils are contending for the first time since 2018. Bottoming out the next season helped them win the lottery for No. 1 pick Jack Hughes, a two-time All-Star who has them winning ahead of schedule.

“Much better than being out of the mix,” Hughes said. “We’re really excited because it’s going to be a lot of important hockey, and it’s going to be really competitive and we’re really pumped to be where we are.”

They’re followed by the New York Rangers, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders. All three New York-area teams could make it, which was the expectation for the Rangers after reaching the East final last year.

“I think the run last year really taught us a few things and stuff that we obviously could build on for the rest of this year,” 2021 Norris-Trophy winning defenseman Adam Fox said.

ATLANTIC

The Rangers lost to the Lightning in six games last spring, when two-time champion Tampa Bay reached the Stanley Cup Final for the third consecutive season before getting beat by the Colorado Avalanche.

The Lightning are almost certain to face the Toronto Maple Leafs – who haven’t won a playoff series since the NHL salary cap era began in 2005 – in the first round and remain a threat to the Bruins.

But Boston has separated itself despite starting the season without top left winger Brad Marchand and No. 1 defenseman Charlie McAvoy. The Bruins have lost only 12 games under new coach Jim Montgomery.

“You just keep winning,” said All-Star right winger David Pastrnak, who’s tied for third in the league in scoring. “Every single line and every single guy is going and it obviously builds our confidence. It’s funny sometimes what confidence can do in hockey.”

The Islanders should have some more confidence after acquiring 30-goal scorer Bo Horvat from Vancouver, but still need to make up ground to get in.

CENTRAL

Defending champion Colorado climbed in the standings – winning seven of eight going into the break despite an injury-riddled first half of the season. Captain Gabriel Landeskog still has not made his season debut since undergoing knee surgery. It would be foolish to bet against the Avs coming out of the West again.

“It’s up to us: We control our own fate,” All-Star center Nathan MacKinnon said. “We need to definitely keep playing the way we were before the break. No matter who’s in the lineup we were playing well, playing hard, so it would definitely help with healthy bodies.”

They still trail the Dallas Stars, Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild in the Central, and the Nashville Predators are on their heels. Only the Stars and Jets are essentially guaranteed a spot.

“Every point, you grind for it,” Stars leading scorer Jason Robertson said. “Every point’s going to be a dog fight, so it’s going to be a fun 30 games down the stretch.”

PACIFIC

Undisputed MVP favorite Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers, who were swept by Colorado in the West final, have a little bit of catching up to do in the Pacific Division.

The top spot is held by the Seattle Kraken, who surprisingly are on pace to make the playoffs in their second season but still need to fend off the Los Angeles Kings and the Vegas Golden Knights.

Edmonton – and the Battle of Alberta rival Calgary Flames – have the talent to not only get in but make a run. McDavid leads the league with 41 goals and 92 points, 16 more than No. 2 scorer and teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is producing unlike anyone since Hall of Famer Mario Lemieux in the mid-1990s.

Now he’ll try to carry the Oilers into the playoffs and beyond.

“It hasn’t been easy at all for our group. We’ve kind of had to battle for everything that we’ve got,” McDavid said. “We’ve always been a second-half team for whatever reason. Even since my first year, we’ve always been better in the second half, so we’ll definitely look to continue that. That being said, we’re not going to hang our hat on that and expect that to carry us to the playoffs. There’s a lot of work to be done.”

Capitals sign Sonny Milano to 3-year, $5.7 million extension

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ARLINGTON, Va. — The Washington Capitals signed winger Sonny Milano to a three-year extension worth $5.7 million.

General manager Brian MacLellan announced the contract, adding to an already busy All-Star break for taking care of future business. The Capitals extended forward Dylan Strome for five years, $25 million.

Like Strome, Milano has fit in as a new addition for Washington. He’s now set to count $1.9 million against the salary cap through the 2025-26 season.

The 26-year-old Milano has been a near-perfect bargain signing for the Capitals after joining them on an NHL veteran one-year deal after this season got underway. He has eight goals and 14 assists for 22 points in 40 games since getting called up from Hershey of the American Hockey League.

Originally drafted by the Columbus Blue Jackets 16th in 2014, Milano split his first eight seasons in the league with them and the Anaheim Ducks. He went unsigned as an unrestricted free agent last summer despite putting up 34 points in 66 games with Anaheim.

Rivals Crosby and Ovechkin relish being All-Star teammates

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SUNRISE, Fla. — Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin have played dozens of regular-season and playoff games against each other since breaking into the NHL together in 2005.

The longtime rivals and respective captains of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals have also shared the ice at All-Star Games before. But with each superstar in his mid-30s, they know this trip could be their last together.

They took advantage of it, with Ovechkin setting up Crosby for two goals Saturday in the lone game of the All-Star 3-on-3 tournament their Metropolitan Division team got to play.

“I think we have fun to play together, not against each other,” Ovechkin said, flashing his gap-toothed smile. “Right now, we was on the same team, and it was pretty special, pretty good moment.”

Crosby, who also had the secondary assist on Ovechkin’s goal, did not expect to get the puck back. That’s not unreasonable given Ovechkin has built a career on scoring and is only 82 goals back of Wayne Gretzky’s NHL career record.

“I was thinking I just did my job: gave it to him,” said Crosby, whose career numbers are so close to Ovechkin’s that he has just five more points overall. “I thought he was just going finish it, but he was kind enough to send me a couple back. We had some nice goals there.”

Not enough to win the 3-on-3 semifinal against the Atlantic, which beat the Central in the final. Ovechkin lamented not scoring more and took some jabs at his goalie teammates for a day: fellow Russians Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers and Ilya Sorokin of the Islanders.

“Obviously goalie could play better,” Ovechkin said.

Crosby and Ovechkin being together at All-Star weekend for the first time since 2018 was one of the themes of the weekend, given how they shared the stage as faces of the NHL for much of their careers. But they don’t want this to be a Sid and Ovi swan song and could do this again as soon as next year when the festivities are in Toronto.

“You try to go out there have fun and stay in the moment,” Crosby said. “Hopefully, it’s not our last one. That’s the best way to approach it.”

HOMETOWN HEROICS

The introductions for Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk were saved for last.

And of course, the two Florida Panthers stars, representing the Atlantic Division, delivered in their home arena.

“We play regular-season and playoff games here, but with this event, it’s even more special to be here representing the Florida Panthers,” Barkov said.

Tkachuk was clearly comfortable playing in the same arena where has amassed 66 points (sixth in the NHL) this season with the Panthers. He had seven points (four goals, three assists) Saturday, including a goal and an assist in the Atlantic Division’s 7-5 win over the Central Division to take the All-Star game title.

Tkachuk had a hat trick and a pair of assists in the Atlantic squad’s semifinal game against the Metropolitan division – tying a single-game points record for the 3-on-3 All-Star format. Two of those goals were assisted by his Panthers teammate to give their squad a win 10-6 and advance to face the Central division the final.

By the time Barkov and Tkachuk came out for the All-Star game final, “Let’s go Panthers!” cheers were being belted throughout FLA Live Arena.

Barkov, the beloved Panther in his 10th season, has 14 goals this year and 33 assists. He has 234 career goals and 600 points.

BROTHERLY LOVE

Brothers Matthew Tkachuk and Brady Tkachuk have played against each other plenty over the years. But with both players starting for the Atlantic division, they got to experience playing together as the 11th set of brothers to be All-Star teammates.

The brothers each had a goal in Saturday’s semifinal game between the Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions. And Brady assisted on his brother’s goal in the final against the Central division.

Matthew, drafted in 2016 by the Calgary Flames, is a two-time All-Star with 177 career goals and 448 points.

Brady, the younger Tkachuk sibling, was drafted in 2018 by the Ottawa Senators and has 110 career goals and 243 points.

Both were All-Stars back in 2020 in their hometown St. Louis. Brady represented the Atlantic division, while Matthew represented the Pacific squad.

WEATHER WOES

It was 72 degrees Fahrenheit (22 Celsius) outside FLA Live Arena when the All-Star 3 on-3 tournament started – more than 50 degrees warmer than 2024 host Toronto. That doesn’t mean this year’s event didn’t have a weather issue.

The NHL All-Star Beach Festival – which had areas where fans could test their hockey skills, get a photo with the Stanley Cup and check out a Hockey Hall of Fame exhibit, among other things – couldn’t open on Saturday.

Rain in the morning delayed the opening on Fort Lauderdale Beach, and then 40 mph (64 kilometers per hour) wind gusts later in the day forced the NHL into keeping it closed and calling off a watch party for the All-Star Game.

It was open Thursday and Friday.