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John Gibson deserves to be Vezina candidate, if not the winner

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If there’s one travesty come June when the NHL’s awards are handed out, it’s that John Gibson won’t be up on stage receiving the Vezina Trophy for the NHL’s best goaltender.

Yes. John Gibson. An NHL goaltender on one of the worst teams in the league, a team that’s fighting for the right to pick first overall rather than raise a second Stanley Cup banner in Anaheim.

It might seem like insanity. Maybe it is.

The Vezina’s three finalists will probably look something like this: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Ben Bishop and Frederik Andersen.

Vasilevskiy, of course, because he’s an incredible goaltender playing on perhaps the best regular-season team in NHL history in the Tampa Bay Lightning. There’s a solid case to be made for a guy with six shutouts, a .927 save percentage and 37 wins entering Friday.

Bishop, because he leads the league with a .933 save percentage and has given a low-scoring Dallas Stars team every opportunity to be in the playoff position they’re in.

Andersen, because despite the milk carton defense in Toronto, has put together an impressive season sans help from his Maple Leafs teammates.

Their numbers are the shiny ones you see when you Google goalie statistics. Their names are atop the rankings of basic goaltending statistics.

They’re all elite goalies, don’t get me wrong, and this is taking nothing away from what they’ve accomplished.

But what John Gibson has done trumps them all.

Gibson’s numbers, on a surface level, look pedestrian. He’s posted a .915 save percentage and a 2.89 goals-against average in 56 appearances this season. There are several guys ahead of him in that category and likely where the wheels begin to fall off in his Vezina case.

Are the NHL’s 31 general managers, who vote on the Vezina, going to dig much deeper? Probably not, and that’s where Gibson’s case comes to a screeching halt.

Here’s some truth: Gibson has saved more goals above the league average than any other goalie in the NHL this season. His goals-saved above average is 17.8, nearly a full goal and a half above Jaroslav Halak and more than a goal and a half more than Bishop. Andersen? Gibson’s got him beat by over 10 goals. Vasilevskiy? 16.

More truth: Among the 37 goalies this season that have played 1,500 minutes or more, Gibson ranks lowest with an expected save percentage of .913 in 5v5 situations when you factor in the type of shot quality he’s faced. His adjusted save percentage when look at the difference in his actual save percentage of .927 and the expect numbers, you arrive a 1.37, fourth best in the NHL, meaning that Gibson is well above the average of what he should be given the quality of shots he’s faced.

Speaking of quality and the number of shots faced, Gibson has seen more high-danger shots fired his way (299) than any other goalie in the league, and despite this, he’s managed a .823 save percentage, good for ninth best — higher than Andersen and Vasilevskiy. Bishop (.854, 207 shots against) is third, but has seen 92 less high-danger shots.

One more thing: Gibson has seen the fifth-most shots against per 60 minutes played, just slightly behind Andersen, both of whom are well ahead of Bishop and Vasilevskiy.

All these numbers aren’t just for show. They’re important statistics that show just how incredible Gibson’s season has been with the Ducks.

Recency bias won’t help his cause. People will say his season was front-loaded as the Ducks surprised a lot of people with their playoff positioning early on. Does Andersen get the same treatment? Does Vasilevskiy get dinged for the fact he’s blessed by an offensive and defensive juggernaut in front of him?

But don’t blame Gibson because his back broke from carrying the team so hard. Without him, the lowest scoring team in the NHL might be giving the 1974-75 Washington Capitals a run for their money for worst record ever.

Look, all four of these goalies deserve Vezina recognition. There are others, too. Robin Lehner on Long Island, Pekka Rinne in country music’s capital, Marc-Andre Fleury in Sin City.

The point of this exercise is this: often we write off great players on bad teams. Connor McDavid not deserving the Hart Trophy because he plays for the Edmonton Oilers is just one example. The problem with this mindset is we miss the exceptional that gets neglected because of it.

People will brush off a season like Gibson is having, saying his surface statistics are nothing to write home about and will continue along their merry way.

And that’s a shame, because if the Vezina is truly an award for the best goalie in NHL, then Gibson deserves to be, at the very least, in the room in Las Vegas later this June, if not on the stage saying his thank yous.

(Stats courtesy of Corsica)

Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

WATCH LIVE: Predators vs. Blues on Hockey Day in America

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NBCSN’s coverage of the 2019-20 NHL season continues with Sunday’s matchup between the St. Louis Blues and Nashville Predators. Coverage begins at 6 p.m. ET on NBCSN. You can watch the game online and on the NBC Sports app by clicking here.

This game is the second of a back-to-back home-and-home between these clubs, with the Predators winning 4-3 on Saturday afternoon in St. Louis. Nashville led 2-0 after the first period and 3-1 in the second before the Blues came back to tie the game at 3-3. Mikael Granlund then scored the game- winner on the power play in the third period. Jake Allen started in goal for the Blues (23 saves on 27 shots).

The defending Stanley Cup champion Blues have hit their first major slump of the season, having lost four straight games and nine of their last 11 games (2-6-3). The Predators, on the other hand, have weathered a slow start to the season and are now very much in the playoff mix, just one point outside a Wild Card spot.

The Predators have won two straight games, beating the Islanders 5-0 on Thursday and the Blues 4-3 on Saturday. They have only won three straight games once this season with a four-game winning streak in October.

Despite leading Nashville to the playoffs in each of his first five seasons, the sluggish start to the 2019-20 season was enough for the Predators to move on from Peter Laviolette, their second-ever head coach, and bring in John Hynes, whose head coaching experience consisted of leading the Devils for four-plus seasons (2015-16 to 2019-20) before being fired on December third after New Jersey lost 17 of its first 26 games.

The Blues have been one of the league’s best home teams this season but have lost more than half of their road games (14-10-5). They have lost eight of their last nine road games, including each of the last three.

[COVERAGE BEGINS AT 6 P.M. ET ON NBCSN]

WHAT: St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators
WHERE: Bridgestone Arena
WHEN: Sunday, Feb. 16, 6 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
LIVE STREAM: You can watch the Blues-Predators stream on NBC Sports’ live stream page and the NBC Sports app.

PROJECTED LINEUPS

BLUES
Jaden SchwartzBrayden SchennTyler Bozak
Zach SanfordRyan O'ReillyDavid Perron
Alex SteenRobert ThomasJordan Kyrou
Mackenzie MacEachernIvan BarbashevSammy Blais

Carl GunnarssonAlex Pietrangelo
Colton ParaykoJustin Faulk
Vince DunnRobert Bortuzzo

Starting goalie: Jake Allen

PREDATORS
Mikael Granlund – Ryan JohansenViktor Arvidsson
Filip ForsbergMatt DucheneKyle Turris
Rocco GrimaldiNick BoninoCraig Smith
Calle JarnkrokColton SissonsAustin Watson

Roman JosiYannick Weber
Jarred TinordiMattias Ekholm
Dan HamhuisDante Fabbro

Starting goalie: Pekka Rinne

Host Liam McHugh and analysts Keith Jones, Anson Carter, and Brian Boucher will anchor pre-game, intermission, and post-game coverage throughout the day. Chris Cuthbert will call the action from Bridgestone Arena alongside Darren Pang.

Trade: Islanders land Devils captain Andy Greene

Islanders trade for Andy Greene Devils get pick, prospect
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The New Jersey Devils aren’t waiting until the trade deadline to start selling. The Islanders landed Devils captain Andy Greene in a trade on Sunday, and New Jersey may end up making more moves soon.

Islanders trade for Greene, Devils’ return highlighted by second-rounder

The Islanders treasure defense and grit under Barry Trotz. The Islanders got what they wanted, then, in a trade for Greene.

Chances are, Lou Lamoriello looks at Greene as a replacement for injured blueliner Adam Pelech.

The Devils? Well, they landed a pretty nice haul for a defenseman who wouldn’t make sense for their rebuild. That should soothe any discomfort that may come from sending Greene in a trade to the rival Islanders.

Islanders receive in trade: Greene, 37, on an expiring contract ($5M AAV); no word yet if there was salary retention

Devils get: 2021 Islanders second-round pick, prospect David Quenneville

Greene doesn’t blow you away offensively, by any means, with two goals and 11 points in 53 games. Greene also isn’t an analytics darling.

The Islanders march to the beat of their own drum, though, so this Hockey Viz heat map won’t phase them:

Greene Viz trade to Islanders

Greene fits the Islanders’ M.O. of being an experienced, defense-first (second, and third) player.

One interesting part of the gamble is that it’s a 2021 second-rounder, rather than the Islanders’ 2020. Will the Islanders be a better team in 2020-21, or could recent stumbles indicate a bumpier future? The Devils will be rooting for the Islanders slip like the Senators watching the Sharks this season.

Quenneville, 21, was a seventh-round pick (200th overall) in 2016.

TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that Blake Coleman isn’t suiting up for Sunday’s game, inspiring new rumblings.

The Devils shot down a report that Coleman was headed to the Avalanche, but that doesn’t mean a Coleman trade won’t happen in some later form. Stay tuned.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Black Girl Hockey Club bolsters fan inclusivity

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NBC Sports celebrates Hockey Day in America this Sunday with an NHL tripleheader on NBC and NBCSN, as well as a collection of stories and features which explore hockey’s impact and influence across the U.S.

At the beginning of the 2018 NHL season, Renee Hess founded the Black Girl Hockey Club to create a comfortable atmosphere for black women to watch hockey games together.

Hess became interested in hockey years ago after running into a crowd of excited Penguins fans while she was working in Pittsburgh. The first game left Hess hooked, but she noticed that there weren’t a lot of people like her in the stands.

Hess found a handful of other black female hockey fans on Twitter and they created a group: the Black Girl Hockey Club. The must-follow group uses this platform to discuss the sport and meet in-person at games across the country. It looks they’re currently experiencing what the Carolina Hurricanes have to offer:

The Black Girl Hockey Club boasts a membership exceeding 200 people. Their story just seems to be beginning, yet they already rank as one of the best stories from “Hockey Day in America.”

You can follow their events and donate to Black Girl Hockey Club here.

(Oh, and Hess must have been happy to see the Penguins win on Sunday, too.)

NBC Hockey Day in America remaining schedule

Bruins at Rangers – NBC – 3 p.m. ET (Watch live) – Mike Tirico will call the matchup at Madison Square Garden alongside Pierre McGuire and Mike Milbury.

Blues at Predators – NBCSN –  6 p.m. ET (Watch live) – Chris Cuthbert will call the action from Bridgestone Arena alongside Darren Pang.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Penguins roll through Red Wings, gain ground in Metro race

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On paper, this seemed like it would be an easy win. Hockey is one of the more unpredictable sports, though, so credit the Penguins with taking care of business against the Red Wings. The Penguins won 5-1 to kick off “Hockey Day in America” on Sunday, improving their odds of taking the Metro crown.

Detroit got off to a 1-0 lead, but it ended up being short-lived. The Penguins tied it up 1-1 when Sam Lafferty (or was it Patric Hornqvist?) scored less than three minutes after Valtteri Filppula made it 1-0.

Hornqvist played a big role in the Penguins growing a 2-1 lead to a 5-1 rout during the second period. From there, it was automatic for Pittsburgh.

It turns out Hornqvist didn’t quite get a hat trick as it originally appeared, but he still had a big game. Sidney Crosby scored one goal and one assist, while Matt Murray stopped 26 out of 27 shots.

The Penguins set the stage for a potentially interesting race for the Metro Division title. They’ve been gaining quite a bit on the Washington Capitals:

  1. Capitals: 79 points in 58 games played (37-16-5)
  2. Penguins: 78 points in 57 GP (36-15-6)

NBC and NBCSN Hockey Day in America schedule

Bruins at Rangers – NBC – 3 p.m. ET (Watch live) – Mike Tirico will call the matchup at Madison Square Garden alongside Pierre McGuire and Mike Milbury.

Blues at Predators – NBCSN –  6 p.m. ET (Watch live) – Chris Cuthbert will call the action from Bridgestone Arena alongside Darren Pang.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.