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Trading Huberdeau could go very, very wrong for Panthers

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History is already repeating itself in an unpleasant way for the Florida Panthers, as they look all but certain to miss the playoffs for the 16th time in 18 seasons. You almost have to try to fail enough not to win a playoff series since 1995-96.

The good news is that the Panthers have amassed a tantalizingly talented group, and they can supplement that core with the right mix of luck and skill. You know, as long as they don’t keep making the same mistakes, over and over again.

GM Dale Tallon probably cringes at any mention of sending Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith out of town, but Panthers management sorely needs to think of those blunders if there’s any validity to rumors about Jonathan Huberdeau being shopped around.

TSN’s Frank Seravalli added Huberdeau to his trade bait list on Monday, citing the Panthers’ pursuit of pending Columbus free agents Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. While Elliotte Friedman reported in 31 Thoughts on Wednesday that there are mixed messages about whether Florida would actually consider moving Huberdeau, the Panthers winger addressed said rumors to The Athletic’s George Richards on Tuesday (sub required), so they’ve at least registered to the forward.

“It’s a rumor, we don’t know if it’s true,” Huberdeau said on Tuesday. “I’m just going to play here for now. We’re trying to make a push for the playoffs and I am going to do everything I can. We’ll see what happens.”

Let’s dig into Huberdeau’s underrated value, the many questions Florida faces during a pivotal crossroads moment for the franchise, and the other, wiser routes they should take.

Huberdeau is a crucial building block

If the Maple Leafs have shown us anything with William Nylander and Auston Matthews (and soon Mitch Marner), it’s that young, high-end players aren’t going to be cheap on second contracts much longer. With that in mind, teams that do have high-end players locked up on bargain contracts should guard them as jealously as a child with ice cream.

Huberdeau is just 25, and his bargain cap hit is $5.9 million. That’s the same as Aleksander Barkov‘s deal, but Huberdeau’s contract runs one extra year (through 2022-23) than Barkov’s does (2021-22). Considering Vincent Trocheck‘s deal ($4.75M cap hit through 2021-22), the Panthers boast one of the most enviable cores in hockey because they could very well afford more pieces.

Not only that, but Huberdeau’s having a fantastic season while suffering from fairly bad luck.

His shooting percentage of 9.4 percent is his lowest since 2014-15, and his on-ice shooting percentage is 6.9 percent, the second-worst mark of his career. Despite not getting bounces, Huberdeau’s had a great season, generating 13 goals and 52 points in 55 games.

Honestly, if every GM made rules like “don’t trade a player when they’re experiencing some of their worst shooting percentages of their careers,” then a boatload of the NHL’s dumbest trades would never happen.

Yes, Panarin is better than Huberdeau, but the gap isn’t as big as you might expect, and who knows how many million more Panarin will cost than Huberdeau’s $5.9M? Will it be $10M per year, or $11M? Maybe more?

Huberdeau compares fairly well to Panarin, a full-fledged star. The Panthers shouldn’t move Huberdeau to get Panarin; instead, they should explore every avenue to get both on their team.

Check out this comparison of the two over multiple easons via Bill Comeau’s eye-catching SKATR charts, which use data from Corsica:

via Bill Comeau/Corsica

Looking at Panarin from a wide variety of angles, it’s resounding just how clearly he’s worth the hype. To an extent, it makes sense that some might see moving Huberdeau as a the price of doing business.

It’s just that the Panthers would be far wiser to pay a different price, as Huberdeau’s a gem.

This situation is especially dangerous if, say, Tallon is looking far too much at (gulp) plus/minus … which might have been a problem with Marchessault and Smith, too. Yikes.

What about Bob?

If the thinking is that the Panthers need to trade away Huberdeau to secure Panarin and Bob, the Panthers should do some soul-searching about Bobrovsky.

Don’t get me wrong. Goaltending has been the Panthers’ achilles heel, and while Bobrovsky’s .903 save percentage this season is troubling, Bob has a credible argument that he’s been the best goalie in the NHL since he joined the Blue Jackets.

Still, Bobrovsky is 30 and will turn 31 in September, and the Panthers already have almost $8M in cap space tied up in Roberto Luongo (39, $4.53M cap hit through 2021-22) and James Reimer (30, $3.4M through 2022-23). Yes, there are ways to alleviate some of the pressures; Luongo’s health might credibly land him on LTIR at some point in the semi-near future, and Reimer could be a buyout target.

This Panthers team might have a budget, though, and what if Bobrovsky trends closer to the backup-level goalie he’s been this season than the two-time Vezina-winner from the past?

Florida might be better off trying to find the next Robin Lehner, rather than risking Bobrovsky having a contract as scary as that of Carey Price or … well, their other two goalies.

Don’t force it

Moving Huberdeau to try to proactively lock down Panarin and Bobrovsky has some logic to it, but it would be a massive overpay.

Most obviously, the Panthers could just wait and see if Panarin and Bobrovsky would come to them via free agency, without costing them a single asset. If they’d sign extensions with Florida, wouldn’t they sign with them in July?

But the concerns about Bob bring up another possibility: maybe a Plan B would work better, overall?

The free agent market is reasonably robust with forwards. Maybe Mark Stone or Matt Duchene would want to soak up the sun and give Florida a boost? Overextending for Panarin and especially Bobrovsky could be a rough value proposition.

Move someone else

The Panthers also have plenty of other pieces to work with.

They could still get at least something for Derick Brassard and/or Riley Sheahan. Jamie McGinn‘s $3.33M is about to come off the books, so that can help even if it just makes a splashy free agent more affordable.

(According to Cap Friendly, the Panthers currently have about $58.5M devoted to 13 players; if the cap goes to $83M, that would give them about $24.5M.)

Thanks to the Nick Bjugstad and Alex Petrovic trades, the Panthers have picks in every round again, including three fourth-rounders. Those picks might not be appealing to the Blue Jackets in a potential Panarin trade, but if the Senators decide to move Stone and/or Duchene, suddenly Florida could be in that mix.

If trading Huberdeau is as much about clearing money as anything else, then there are much better ways to ease financial tensions. Perhaps the Panthers could bribe someone to absorb the full cost of Reimer’s contract, even if costs a pick or two?

Status quo isn’t so bad

Trying to add a big player makes a lot of sense for Florida, but blowing up what they have by recklessly giving up Huberdeau in a sell-low situation isn’t the best way to get better.

And don’t forget, Florida could be on the verge of adding some other nice pieces.

Henrik Borgstrom isn’t setting the NHL on fire, but he’s just 21, and many believe the big forward has serious potential. Many scouts are also excited about Owen Tippett, who’s about to turn 20 on Feb. 16.

The prospect of those prospects making bigger jumps might prompt some to say “OK, then, trade Huberdeau; they can replace him.” Instead, it should inspire the Panthers to take a more zen-like approach.

If you’re going to move any fully formed forward, you’d be better off moving Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov, as both are only under contract through 2020-21. Yet, even in those cases, they’re both cost-effective, quality players.

Tallon should instead envision Barkov, Huberdeau, Trocheck, Hoffman, Dadonov, Borgstrom, Tippett, and a free agent giving the Panthers a mix of high-end skill and unusual-for-2019 depth.

Really, the Panthers’ biggest question might be: is Bob Boughner the right guy as head coach? Publicly speaking, Tallon at least seems to think so.

In summary: Don’t move Hubey

Overall, it makes sense that the Panthers want to add Panarin and Bobrovsky, or other big pieces. This team is getting impatient, and maybe doesn’t believe that it’s an option to sit idly by.

People make mistakes when they’re desperate, though, and the concept of a Huberdeau trade carries that stink. This doesn’t mean that there’s no scenario where it can work out for Florida … the odds are just higher that things would pay off if they did something else.

Decades of history argue that the Panthers won’t get this right, but they could very well build something special if they do. Good luck, Dale Tallon.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Stanley Cup Final: Blues vs. Bruins full schedule, TV info

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The St. Louis Blues have eliminated the San Jose Sharks in six games, and now the the 2019 Stanley Cup Final matchup is set.

Beginning with Game 1 on Monday, May 27 at TD Garden, the Blues will battle the Boston Bruins.

If a Game 7 is needed, it will take place on Wednesday, June 12, in Boston at 8 p.m. ET.

The Bruins are playing in their first Stanley Cup Final since 2013 and are trying to win it for the first time since 2011. The Blues went to the Cup Final in each of their first three years in the NHL, with their last appearance coming in 1970. They are looking for their first championship.

[NBC 2019 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB]

Here is the complete schedule for the entire series

(All times ET, subject to change).

GAME 1 
Monday, May 27: St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins | 8 p.m. ET, NBC

GAME 2

Wednesday, May 29: St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins | 8 p.m. ET,  NBCSN

GAME 3

Saturday, June 1: Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues | 8 p.m. ET, NBCSN

GAME 4

Monday, June 3: Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues | 8 p.m. ET, NBC

*GAME 5

Thursday, June 6: St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins | 8 p.m. ET, NBC

*GAME 6

Sunday, June 9: Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues | 8 p.m. ET, NBC

*GAME 7

Wednesday, June 12: St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins | 8 p.m. ET, NBC

*If necessary

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

What’s next for Karlsson, Pavelski, Thornton?

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The San Jose Sharks have had their share of heartbreak over the last decade, but their elimination loss to the St. Louis Blues in the Western Conference Final might sting a little more because it might force them into some significant roster changes.

Heading into the offseason, the Sharks have several players on expiring contracts. They include: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Gustav Nyquist, Joonas Donskoi and Erik Karlsson. That list doesn’t include restricted free agents like Kevin Labanc and Timo Meier.

The Sharks are also without their first, second and fourth round draft picks this year, so making a trade without subtracting from the current team will also be difficult.

So, how will things shake out between the team and three of their key leaders?

Let’s start with Pavelski, who will be 35 years old by the start of next season. The veteran scored an impressive 38 goals and 64 points in 75 games during the regular season and he added four goals and nine more points in 13 postseason games.

As his teammates pointed out on numerous occasions during the playoffs, he’s more than just a goalscorer. After he went down with an upper-body injury in Game 7 of San Jose’s first-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights, it became clear that he’s an important figure in that locker room. But given his age, can they afford to bring him back at any cost? And where does he rank on the list of players they want to bring back?

He’s coming off a five-year, $30 million contract. Would the Sharks be willing to increase the money and would Pavelski be willing to bring down the term? Those are the biggest questions. In fairness to him, he’s been very durable throughout his career. Over the last eight seasons, he’s missed eight games but seven of those came in 2018-19.

No matter what the offseason brings for the Sharks, it would just feel wrong for us to see him in another jersey. They have to find a way to get him under contract before he hits the market.

As for Joe Thornton, the decision to return or not may be one sided. Thornton signed a one-year deal with the Sharks last summer, so agreeing on term shouldn’t be an issue. The big decision will have to be made by Thornton. Does he want to play another year?

[NBC 2019 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB]

Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure Thornton would like to win a Stanley Cup before his career is over, but he also seems like a guy that’s come to terms with the fact that that might not happen.

Even though he’ll be 40 years old by the start of next season, he can still serve as an effective third-line center on this team. He just has to figure out if he’s up to it or not.

Now, let’s tackle the situation with Erik Karlsson.

Where to start?

Does he want to be back in San Jose? We don’t know. Details regarding his interest in re-signing have been few and far between. Assuming he’s open to returning, how much term and money would he be looking for? You’d have to think that he’d want maximum term. So if he goes back to San Jose that would be for eight years and if he hits the market he’ll be looking for a seven-year contract.

But the reality is, anyone giving Karlsson that kind of term is taking a huge risk. He’s only 28 years old, but his body has taken a pounding over the last few seasons. He played 82 games per season for three years between 2013 and 2016. Since then, he’s suited up in 77, 71 and 53 contests.

It was obvious during these playoffs that he was playing through an injury. He didn’t suit up in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final and there was no guarantee that he could’ve played in Game 7 had the Sharks been able to force one. Since Ottawa’s run to the Eastern Conference Final in 2017 (they made it to double overtime in Game 7 against the Pittsburgh Penguins) Karlsson has been playing banged up. He underwent a serious ankle procedure after that run and he’s been fighting through injuries ever since.

As of this moment, the Sharks have over $24 million in cap space. But as we mentioned before, there’s so many key players that need to be paid that it might not be possible for them to bring them all back. We know that Pavelski and Thornton would want to stick around, but there’s no guarantee Karlsson will be willing to take a discount.

It’s shaping up to be a very busy offseason for general manager Doug Wilson.

MORE: Stanley Cup Final: Blues vs. Bruins full schedule, TV info

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

Blues superfan Laila Anderson interviews Alex Steen after Game 6 win

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It’s been a pretty great week for 11-year-old Laila Anderson.

After getting the surprising news that her doctor allowed her to attend Game 3 of the Western Conference Final between her beloved St. Louis Blues and the San Jose Sharks, she was in attendance Tuesday night as the team clinched a spot in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final.

Laila has been battling a rare disease called Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocystosis (HLH), which, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine, affects the immune system and causes certain white blood cells to attack other blood cells and enlarges organs such as the spleen and liver. Since January, she had only been at home or at the hospital before her mom informed her she would be attending Game 3.

After the Blues eliminated the Sharks Tuesday night, Laila was one of the stars of the postgame celebration. She spent time with some of the players, which included Patrick Maroon telling her how much she inspires them.

Laila even got to interview her good buddy Alex Steen, hitting the forward with some good questions.

“It’s very special to do this in this town,” said Steen “To have you here was a little extra special for that.”

The Blues are playing in their first Cup Final since 1970 and are seeking their first win in the Cup Final after getting swept in their three other appearances. Steen told Anderson she might be the difference against the Boston Bruins.

“We’ve got you, our lucky charm there,” he said.

MORE: Stanley Cup Final: Blues vs. Bruins full schedule, TV info

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

PHT Morning Skate: Is Patrick Roy good fit for Sens?; Flyers need a center

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Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

• Patrick Roy and Sens GM Pierre Dorion were spotted leaving a hotel in Montreal on Tuesday. (Ottawa Citizen)

• TSN’s Travis Yost breaks down whether or not Patrick Roy is a good fit for the Ottawa Senators. (TSN)

• Should women’s hockey align with the NHL? It may not be as good of an idea as you think. (The Hockey News)

Brandon Carlo‘s first Stanley Cup playoff has been pretty positive. (NHL)

• Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson is leaving the Boston Bruins to sign in the Swedish Hockey League. (Stanley Cup of Chowder)

Brett Kulak went from being a minor leaguer to a key contributor on the Canadiens’ blue line. (Habs Eyes on the Prize)

• Find out how soccer could be the key to fixing officiating in the NHL. (NBC Sports Washington)

• What should the Flyers expect from Sean Couturier next season? (Broad Street Hockey)

• The Flyers should also add a number two center this offseason so that they can move Nolan Patrick further down the depth chart. (Philly.com)

• Can the Tampa Bay Lightning find the cap space to bring Erik Karlsson into the fold. (Raw Charge)

• Pens forward Dominik Simon has been an offensive force for the Czech Republic at the Worlds. (Pensburgh)

• What should the Avalanche be targeting in free agency and how much money do they have to spend? (Mile High Hockey)

• Sportsnet breaks down seven teams that are in salary cap trouble. (Sportsnet)

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

Bruins, Blues meet in Stanley Cup Final 49 years in making

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Seeing the famous photo of Bobby Orr scoring the 1970 Stanley Cup-winning goal to beat his St. Louis Blues doesn’t bring back bad memories for Scotty Bowman.

”Not really,” the legendary coach said. ”Because we didn’t have a big opportunity to win that series.”

Orr and the big, bad Boston Bruins swept Bowman’s overmatched, expansion-era Blues in that series. Now 49 years later, Boston is in its third final in nine seasons and St. Louis is back for the first time since 1970, but this Bruins-Blues rematch is a showdown between two of the NHL’s best teams since Jan. 1.

”Now it’s more level,” Bowman said. ”(The Blues) don’t give a lot of room in their end, and of course their goalie’s been lights out.”

Coming off a sweep of Carolina in the Eastern Conference final, the Bruins are favored in the series that begins Monday in Boston. Goaltender Tuukka Rask is the front-runner to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. Brad Marchand is playing some of the best hockey of his career with 18 points in 17 games, and there’s a mix of veterans from the 2011 Stanley Cup-winning team and fresh players eager to get their names etched on the trophy.

”I think as you get older, you appreciate it even more, and you realize how hard it is to get to this point and advance and be thankful and stay in the moment,” center Patrice Bergeron said. ”But then it’s back to work, and there’s a lot of work in front of us.”

Unlike in 1970, when the Bruins essentially just had to step on the ice to take the final, these Blues won’t go away. They woke up last in the league on Jan. 3 before winning 30 of their final 45 games to roll into the playoffs, where they beat the Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars and San Jose Sharks.

Craig Berube, who replaced Mike Yeo as Blues coach in November, said teams would rather avoid those tough times. But they’ve made his players stronger.

”We were trying to get on the right track,” Berube said after the Western Conference final-clinching Game 6 victory Tuesday. ”Once we got going in January and February, I knew we had a good hockey team. Once you get in the playoffs, anything can happen. We’re here and we did. They believed they were going to make the playoffs, and we’re here.”

The Blues are still here in large part because of rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington, whose first start in January coincided with the turnaround. They adopted Laura Branigan’s catchy 1980s pop hit ”Gloria” as their victory song, rallied in the playoffs around young fan Laila Anderson, who has a life-threatening immune disease, and became the NHL’s latest surprise story.

”The last couple months in the city have been crazy,” star winger Vladimir Tarasenko said. ”The support is amazing. They give us a lot of power. Unbelievable.”

St. Louis is the oldest franchise not to win the Stanley Cup, and its drought is the second longest behind the Toronto Maple Leafs’. The Leafs won the season before the Blues came into the league. To finish this improbable run, the Blues have to go through the Bruins, who finished tied for the second-most points this season.

”They are a hard team to play against, a really skilled team,” Tarasenko said. ”But we have a hard team, too. It will be some interesting games.”

Bowman’s first thought about the series was that he couldn’t believe how long the Bruins will have to sit out. Boston will have a week and a half between finishing off Carolina and Game 1, and even St. Louis will go six days without playing.

One benefit for the Bruins is they should get captain Zdeno Chara back for the final after he missed Game 4 against Carolina.

Follow AP Hockey Writer Stephen Whyno on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SWhyno

More AP NHL: https://apnews.com/NHL and https://twitter.com/AP-Sports