It’s the NHL All-Star break, so it’s probably a good time to reflect back on the first three-and-a-half months of the season and take a sneak peek at who’s in the awards conversation. There’s been plenty of surprises, disappointments, coaching changes, general manager changes and we still have lots more hockey left to play.
As we get set for the All-Star Skills and All-Star Game, let’s take a look at who we think is deserving of the Hart, Norris, Vezina, Adams, Calder and Selke Trophies, along with some first-half surprises and disappointments.
Biggest surprise (team)
Biggest disappointment (team)
SEAN: Even among a team of stars and budding stars (Brayden Point), Kucherov has set himself apart from the pack. The current scoring leader is ahead in a race that could change drastically in the second half. If the Oilers somehow find a way to make the playoffs, does that help McDavid’s chances? What about Gibson if the Ducks manage a turnaround?
JAMES: With scoring growing like Super Mario post-mushroom, there’s a positively dizzying number of great options this year. When in doubt – and I’m very much in doubt – I ask myself the schoolyard sports question of “If I were picking teams, which player would be my first choice?” and McDavid comes up without a thought. He’s the best player in the world, and he’s producing at that level even as the Oilers let him down at every turn. Kucherov’s ridiculous in his own right, and Gibson is the clear No. 1 at the most game-changing position in the sport, so he deserves kudos in his own right.
ADAM: Kucherov has been the best offensive player in the league on the best offensive team, and Gaudreau is just behind him for a Calgary team that is the best team in the Western Conference. Both are among the games best and most exciting players and are as dominant as it gets. As for Gibson, well, it goes without saying: He is taking what should be a lottery team, maybe a bottom-five team, and keeping it in the playoff race.
JOEY: I realize that the Lightning are loaded with talent, but it’s important to note that Kucherov has five more points than any other player in the league right now. He led the league in scoring for a good chunk of last season, before he slowed down a little bit in the second of the year. We’ll see if he can keep this up. As for Gaudreau, no one expected the Flames to be this good this year and he’s a big reason why they’ve been able to exceed expectations. And what more can I say about Ovechkin? After winning the Stanley Cup last June, the Caps captain has managed to score 36 goals in just 40 games. That’s insane.
SCOTT: Would the Flames be where the Flames are if Gaudreau wasn’t playing there? I think not. Gaudreau isn’t far off Kucherov’s point pace and he’s not playing with Steven Stamkos or Brayden Point. Gaudreau has turned into a superstar this season and has done the most for his team. Wheeler, meanwhile, has been the gas that fuels Winnipeg’s power play, and he’s just behind the top spot in terms of assists.
SEAN: If he hadn’t been injured in the past, Giordano may have one, maybe two Norris Trophies in his cabinet. He’s having his best offensive season at age 35 with 52 points in 49 games. His career high is 56 set back in 2015-16. He’s again a strong driver of possession and has posted a strong relative Corsi (5.23). With the play of Karlsson, Rielly and Brent Burns, the final voting come April could leave for a handful of worthy candidates.
JAMES: All three of these players just jump off the charts, along with a few other worthy defensemen (including John Carlson, whose defensive game is catching up to his prolific offense in exciting ways this season). Giordano somehow has more than a point-per-game in 2018-19 (52 points in 49 games heading into Wednesday), and remains an elite two-way presence. Letang’s somewhat quietly having an absolutely stellar year in his own right, and even a “slow start” for Karlsson keeps him in the discussion as a defensive demigod.
ADAM: These three have been pretty much in a class all to themselves this season. They are all elite scorers, they are all elite possession drivers, they are all elite when it comes to scoring chances for and against. The big omission here is probably Rielly, and he would probably be a very close fourth for me. Just think these three have been far and away the best all-around defenders in the league this season. I thought Karlsson’s early season struggles were a bit overblown because the underlying numbers were always there. Just took some time to get the points to go with it. Letang has had an amazing bounce back year and is back to being elite, and Giordano has just been sensational.
JOEY: Giordano is putting together a career-year at 35 years old. The Flames defender has 52 points in 49 games and he’s managed to put up a CF% of 55.66 percent, which is remarkable. Burns leads all defensemen in points, with 55, and he’s also a strong CF % of over 55 percent. Letang has had to overcome a lengthy injury history, but he’s put together quite the season for the Penguins. Hopefully he can continue to stay healthy.
SCOTT: Giordano is the other piece in the Flames’ puzzle that has been fantastic this season. Gaudreau is taking care of everything up front and Giordano, with his point-per-game pace, is getting business done on the blue line. Burns belongs here because the Norris often goes to the guy with the most points. Chabot belongs here because he’s making the most of playing on a bad team.
SEAN: Fourth in high-danger save percentage (.871), a .925 even strength save percentage, tops in goals saved above average (14.27) (a stat that shows many goals have been saved above a league-average netminder), and only one of two goaltenders who have faced at least 1,000 shots at 5-on-5. Imagine the Ducks without Gibson’s level of performance this season.
JAMES: Again, Gibson is incredible, and carrying the sort of workload that makes you worry that he might break down in the future. Lehner is the only goalie who matches Gibson’s outstanding 18 Goals Saved Against Average, and his case could get interesting as time goes on, especially if he works on his one relatively weak area (only 27 games played compared to Gibson’s 42), and Lehner has a ridiculous .931 save percentage. Andersen’s numbers are strong, and considering how often Toronto collapses defensively, he’s been an immensely valuable presence for Toronto. Could be some fascinating jockeying for finalist positions down the stretch.
ADAM: If you are a goalie that gets MVP consideration you are also probably in the Vezina discussion, or at the very top of it. This should be Gibson’s to lose at this point because he has clearly been the best goalie in the league this season. Andersen is the rare Toronto Maple Leafs player that is actually underrated. He plays a ton of minutes, has been mostly durable, and does it all at an above average level. There is a lot to be said for that. As for Lehner, well, he is one of the driving forces behind the Islanders climbing to first place.
JOEY: It’s a little strange to give my top Vezina vote to a goalie that lost 10 consecutive starts not too long ago, but Gibson has really been that good. He’s the only reason the Ducks are anywhere close to a playoff spot at this point. If they want to play deeper into April, they’ll need him to continue playing at a high level. Both Andersen and Vasilevskiy have missed some time with an injury, but they’ve been so consistent for most of the season.
SCOTT: Gibson, because the Ducks would be the worst team in the NHL without him. He’s just been spectacular despite very little run support. Fleury, meanwhile, is defying the laws of age as he puts up another ridiculous season. He leads the league in shutouts and is leading Vegas back to the promised land. Lehner could pip both of them if he continues as the hot hand in Long Island. He’s a huge reason why the Islanders are in first place in the Metropolitan.
SEAN: You knew there’d be some improvement with Trotz behind the bench, but this? Not a chance. The Metro leaders are better in all facets of the game this season.
JAMES: As much as I want to make a trendy/contrarian coaching pick, and as much of a red flag as the Isles’ goaltending is, how can we deny the work Trotz has done this year? It’s almost like the dude just won a Stanley Cup or something. Cooper’s team is loaded, but the Bolts are so far ahead of everyone else, it’s ridiculous, and that’s even with Andrei Vasilevskiy missing some time. It’s not just that the Canadiens are overachieving; the Habs are somehow a dominant possession team, and Julien has this group playing a relentless style that makes Montreal a headache many nights. You’d think Montreal’s only hope would be Carey Price wearing an S on his chest, but that S has really just stood for “solid” this season.
ADAM: I am probably the only person in hockey that does not have Trotz first, but I am taking a stand here. The Jack Adams is kind of a joke to me anymore because it never actually goes to the best coach or the best coaching job. It just gets given to the coach whose bad team from a year ago had the best goalie this season and surprisingly dragged them to a playoff spot. Now, that does not mean I am discounting the Trotz impact. He has been great and he is a great coach. He just is. He has been. He still is. He will continue to be. But here’s the thing: I think Peters has done a better job this season. Does he have more talent on his roster? Perhaps. But he is also coaching a team that was out of the playoffs last year and he has them playing at a level that is good enough to potentially compete for the Stanley Cup this season … with shaky goaltending. Are the Islanders, with great goaltending, at that level? Still not sure yet. But Peters and Trotz are the two top of this and Peters probably is not getting enough attention. Cooper just simply might be the best coach in hockey and will get punished in the voting because his team is *too* good.
JOEY: I realize that I’m not giving Cooper any love, but the three coaches I listed above have done a remarkable job in 2018-19. Nobody expected the Islanders to be leading the Metropolitan Division by three points heading into the All-Star break. Nobody. Trotz and his staff have done a great job getting their team organized defensively. As of right now, there’s a huge gap between him and the rest of the coaches on the ballot.
SCOTT: Trotz has revitalized the Islanders in a year where most would have guessed they would have struggled. Instead, the Islanders have quickly forgotten about John Tavares and worked themselves into the first spot in the Metro. That’s remarkable. Peters has turned the Flames into what appears to be a Cup contender, as well. Cooper gets here by default. The Lightning are a very good team.
SEAN: A winger? Yep. Stone is starting more in the defensive zone (51.8 percent) than he has in the last five years and even on a mediocre Senators team he’s putting up positive possession numbers (52.4 percent Corsi) while also recording a 12.7 Corsi-Relative, meaning Ottawa is directing nearly 13 more shots on goal when he’s on the ice compared to when he’s off.
JAMES: Sidney Crosby‘s possession numbers are so bonkers, it was really tempting to give him more Hart Trophy love. Seriously, scroll down to his possession metrics and note the ridiculous Corsi Relative number of 10.3%. That’s get-your-glasses-fixed stuff. The Selke voting leans toward two-way prowess rather than pure defense (sorry Mikko Koivu), and Crosby’s tilting the ice on an epic level. Barkov and Stone are splendid choices if 87 is too bold for your blood.
ADAM: Tatar is not going to win the Selke for a variety of reasons. First, he is a winger and wingers never win unless they are Jere Lehtinen. Also I am not sure anyone realizes just how good he has been. Among forwards that have played at least 600 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey this season Tatar is first in Corsi Percentage, third in scoring chance differential, 14th in high-danger scoring chance differential, and seventh in goal differential. He has been an all-around outstanding player this season. Crosby is still an elite offensive player and I think his defensive game has caught up to it. His line is doing everything for the Penguins at the moment. As for Marchand, I still think he is one of the best all-around players in the league and has been great this season.
JOEY: This is very much a reputation award, but it’s tough to ignore the job Bergeron has done this season. Despite missing 15 games this season, the Bruins forward is on pace to score 83 points. Bergeron has controlled 56 percent of the shot attempts when he’s on the ice. Even at 33 years old, he’s still got it. It’s important to note that Crosby has also put up similar possession numbers this year. Both players could easily come away with the award this season.
SCOTT: Crosby is silly good again this season, which means he might finally win this award. He’s putting up his second-best season in terms of possession and his best season in terms of his relative Corsi at 10.64. That’s very good. Possession metrics and relative Corsi is also the reason why Tatar is on here. He’s having a splendid season in Montreal and deserves some recognition. Stone is just being Stone again. Even on a bad team, he continues to put up a point-per-game while suppressing offense from opponents.
SEAN: A couple of injuries haven’t slowed the Canucks’ rookie. His 1.13 points per game average crushes the competition, with Brady Tkachuk (0.61) trailing far behind.
JAMES: Oh, no big deal, Pettersson’s just restored hope for the Vancouver Canucks. Heiskanen and Dahlin are neck-and-neck in a battle of beyond-their-years defensemen, with Heiskanen’s logging more than 23 minutes per game and Dahlin carrying a significant workload (almost 21) and having more all-around success. Somehow, both Heiskanen and Dahlin are still teens. You can feel old now.
ADAM: Simply put, it is Pettterson’s award. Heiskanen and Dahlin have been outstanding as teenage defenders, but Pettersson changes the entire outlook of the Canucks when he is on the ice.
JOEY: Pettersson is clearly head-and-shoulders above the rest of this rookie class. Despite missing 11 games due to injury, the Canucks rookie still leads the league in rookie scoring by an 18-point margin over Ottawa’s Colin White. The 20-year-old is a huge reason why Vancouver finds themselves in the middle of a playoff race, when most people expected them to be one of the worst teams in the league. This one’s easy.
SCOTT: Out of all of the awards, this is the one that is already sewn up. It doesn’t matter who second or third is, although Heiskanen and Dahlin are having solid seasons in their own right. But it’s Pettersson, who despite missing time on two separate occasions this season because of injury, has lit the NHL on fire in his first season.