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Fantasy Hockey: Goalies and other risky picks for 2018-19

So far, PHT highlighted sleepers and players due for rebounds in fantasy hockey. Between those two lists, you’ll find quite a few strong value propositions.

Pushing people up the ladder naturally means that someone must go down a few rungs, and that’s where this post comes in.

Before we dive in, please note: none of this is to say that these players are “bad.” Fantasy hockey is ultimately about value, which means making educated guesses about players who are being drafted too soon or being passed up by too many people.

Such a list, then, could be even more vulnerable to changes than the more optimistic sleepers and bounce-back years. After all, “reaching” for a goalie is a lot more reasonable if, say, there are five skater stats and five goalie stats in your league.

[More Fantasy: Pick up the Rotoworld Draft Guide]

Hopefully these general guidelines can help you in just about any format. At worst, it’s a good idea to question things rather than just defaulting to whoever is ranked higher in your draft app.

Reasonable choices, but just too high for goalies

Look, if you make a couple of picks and then decide you just CANNOT DEAL with a lack of goalies, I understand. Just realize that, ultimately, I personally only view there being two semi-reliable “premium” netminders: Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky.

There’s a lot to like with those choices, yet there are issues. Rinne’s struggled many times during his career, and now he must fend off a fantastic backup/goalie-of-the-future in Juuse Saros. Hellebuyck was fantastic, yet has a limited track record, and no longer enjoys contract year motivation. Rask stumbled last season, Andersen plays behind an up-and-down defense, and Gibson’s dealt with injuries and might need to overcome a dicey Ducks team.

Personally, I’d feel comfortable going with a skater in that range, instead. As two examples, Rinne’s ADP lands him right before Blake Wheeler and Brent Burns, while you can grab Johnny Gaudreau, Vladimir Tarasenko, or Artemi Panarin instead of, say, Hellebuyck.

[More Fantasy: Rotoworld’s DFS Toolkit]

I like Martin Jones’ situation, and he’s fine, but I’m not blown away by him, either. If you’re considering a goalie with such a prominent pick, you need to think that he could very well win the Vezina.

Sound the alarms

In a way, it’s comforting that hockey fans still hold Price in a high regard, as it resists some of the “What have you done for me lately?” culture of sports. There’s also the chance that Montreal could exceed expectations amid another dour offseason of dismal moves by Marc Bergevin.

The overall picture of Price is too risky for a top-50 pick, as Price hasn’t performed that well and/or has dealt with striking injury concerns lately.

Quick had a great season in 2017-18, and if healthy, should provide volume, if nothing else. Still, this Kings team could regress out of the playoffs, and Quick’s track record of providing quality along with all that quantity is suspect at best. At least when we’re talking about premium picks. You could get a premium center like Jack Eichel or Mark Scheifele in that range.

“MAF” was absolutely dazzling last season, carrying over an honestly incredible regular season to an almost uniformly impeccable playoff run. (Sure, he struggled a bit against Washington, but Fleury was outstanding overall. As close to heroic as you can get … you know, stopping pucks.)

Still, MAF is 33, rounding out a group of older goalies (Quick is 32, Price is 31). With increased age comes increased risks for injuries and physical decline. Also, the Golden Knights could stink like they were expected to last season, for all we know.

Goalies are already dangerous to draft early, but this trio worries me the most of the top 50 ADP.

Skaters, maybe another goalie or two

In Yahoo formats, Nashville’s first-line forward seems to settle into the 30 range (36 ADP), which seems more or less fine. I’d be a bit more excited about the ceiling of, say, Eichel or Scheifele, but we’re talking slight difference here.

The sticker shock happens in ESPN, however, as I’ve seen him ranked 16th. Sorry, but I’d much rather have Jamie Benn, Steven Stamkos, or Taylor Hall in that range.

At this point, people bash “Wild Bill” for being overrated so often, I now believe that he’s underrated. Karlsson has talent, and if he can stick with Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith, a 20-goal season is reasonable.

But he’s being drafted as if he can at least parallel his breakout(of nowhere) 43-goal, 78-point campaign, as his ADP is 61.3. Judging by other players drafted around him, instead of rolling the dice in true Vegas fashion, I’d recommend that you make sure you get at least one elite defenseman in this range, if you haven’t already. I wouldn’t be stunned if Shayne Gostisbehere (67.6) or John Klingberg (69.1) ended up being the top fantasy hockey defensemen of 2018-19, honestly, and they’d be much safer bets than Karlsson. Just saying.

I don’t totally dismiss the possibility that Talbot and the Edmonton Oilers are due for positive regression this season. The problem is that, much like with Carey Price, too-large bets are being made that Talbot will rebound, as his ADP is 75.

My guess is that a lot of people witness a rush on goalies, panic, and settle upon Talbot. Honestly, I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if Antti Raanta (a sleeper pick) has a better season, and his ADP is 135.7.

Now, if you’re confident about the Oilers and Talbot’s available around pick, say, 100? Sure, why not.

Lightning round of misgivings and worthy notes

  • Patrik Laine (6.8) – Is there some Winnipeg edict to try to get value out of players while also keeping opportunities down while they’re not under long-term contracts? If so, that’s cagey, kind of evil, and sort of impressive.

Laine is awesome, and he could easily justify being a top-10 pick, but the Jets give him limited ice time (his reps actually went down from his rookie workload by about a minute-and-a-half per night). Yes, Winnipeg boasts a bounty of talented forwards, yet it still feels weird that Laine gets the short straw.

Anyway, when you’re talking about your top picks, being sure is pretty important. Maybe he’ll take off CURIOUSLY after signing an extension? Hmmm …

  • Evgeni Malkin (13.9) – Strictly an injury concern here.
  • Patrice Bergeron (41.5) – Like Malkin, Bergeron was snubbed from “The NHL 100” list, in my opinion. Both are great players, yet they’ve taken their lumps. Bergeron missed 18 games last season and already enters 2018-19 with lingering issues.
  • Brock Boeser, Mikko Rantanen, Mathew Barzal – All three are very, very good young players. Dazzling even. Still, they’re going very high in drafts, and there are slight concerns about them stumbling in encore performances.

I’m not saying don’t draft either one of the three, but maybe wait a little while.

  • Ilya Kovalchuk (77.8) – If you’re like me, you’re jazzed that Kovalchuk is back. It’s like a good friend moving back into town, only without those glances at your larger belly.

That said, Kovalchuk is 35. I’d rather let someone else fit the bill in case he doesn’t really “have it” as much any longer, at least in such a lofty range. Otherwise, you might get the same feeling with Kovalchuk as you do when you realize that you’ve grown apart from your old pal.

(Sheesh, this got sad all of a sudden.)

  • Corey Perry, Seth Jones, other recent injury worries – As always, be careful about injuries. Sometimes a player can have a Yahoo note next to their name that amounts to them having a broken nail. Other times, they could miss a ton of time. How much of a loss does Jones suffer for missing at least one month? That’s up to you to decide, but my feeling is “quite a bit,” especially since he might be nagged by the injury even once he plays.

***

Anyway, that’s enough mild negativity for now. Are there any “reaches” that really stand out to you in fantasy drafts, or rankings? Feel free to share your tidbits in the comments.

MORE:
Sleepers, bargains for 2018-19
2018-19 bounce back candidates

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Hurricanes’ Brind’Amour latest coach to put his team on blast

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Sure, you can have a high-up team executive call you out and compare you to horse excrement.

That’s one thing.

But when your coach, who is nearly a decade removed from playing his last NHL game, contemplates dressing because his team is that bad, that’s another.

And then to top it all off, that coach then apologies to a newly-acquired player on behalf of the team that he coaches.

That stings.

We’ve seen a couple of outbursts this year that haven’t been seen in some time — if ever.

Carolina Hurricanes legend Rod Brind’Amour is the latest to eviscerate his team publicly in what seems to be the in-fashion way to get the message across these days.

Who can forget Jim Lites’ tirade in Dallas?

Or Bruce Boudreau’s rant?

Or David Quinn putting his team on blast earlier this week?

Now you can add Brind’Amour to the list.

“We were so bad, I almost dressed and got out there,” Brind’Amour said after the Hurricanes fell 4-1 to the Ottawa Senators on Friday. “I might have been as good as what we were throwing out there. We just didn’t want to play the way we were supposed to. I didn’t know what I was watching. That’s the first time all year I can say that.”

If that wasn’t the kill shot, Brind’Amour then feeling the need to apologize to Nino Niederreiter certainly was.

The latter was picked up in a trade earlier this week for Victor Rask. In his first game, his new teammates crapped the proverbial bed.

“Good. I thought he was fine,” Brind’Amour said about Niederreiter’s debut. “He had a couple chances. I think the first shift he almost had a breakaway. … I apologized to him for that effort. That’s not our team, and that’s his first game.”

It’s not often you hear about that sort of thing.

The Hurricanes had won seven-of-eight before dropping a 6-2 decision to the New York Rangers and Friday’s loss to the visiting Senators.

The Hurricanes are now nine points adrift from the final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference.


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

Devils’ Palmieri replaces injured Hall at NHL All-Star Game

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New Jersey Devils forward Taylor Hall is going to take the team’s upcoming bye week to heal, and that will include missing the 2019 NHL All-Star Game.

The Devils made the announcement on Saturday, with Jersey boy Kyle Palmieri set to take his spot at SAP Center in San Jose next weekend.

“It’s a pretty cool honor,” Palmieri told reporters prior to the Devils game against the Anaheim Ducks on Saturday “Obviously, it will be my first one so looking forward to that. I’d easily trade it to have [Hall] backs in the lineup and be healthy but it’s a cool opportunity for me and I’m looking forward to it.”

Palmieri has had a solid season for the lowly Devils, posting 22 goals and 16 assists in 47 games.

“It’s nice to see Kyle really develop as an NHL player over the fours years since he’s been traded from Anaheim,” Devils coach John Hynes told reporters on Saturday. “He’s come in here. He’s played a big role. He’s improved his game. He’s a big, big part of our team and it’s nice to see him continue to develop. It’s certainly a nice honor.”

Hall remains sidelined with a lower-body injury and hasn’t skated since a game on Dec. 23.

The Devils sit in 26th place overall in the NHL standings and are fighting for better lottery odds at this point.


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

Concussion lawsuit settlement deadline for players extended

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By Stephen Whyno (AP Hockey Writer)

The deadline for retired players to opt in to the $18.9 million settlement of the concussion lawsuit against the NHL has been extended.

Players’ attorneys confirmed the extension to The Associated Press on Friday night. It was not immediately clear what the new deadline was.

The 318 former players who sued the league and accused it of failing to protect them from head injuries or warning them of the risks involved with playing initially had until the Friday to opt in to the settlement that was reached 75 days ago.

Each player who opts in would receive $22,000 and could be eligible for up to $75,000 in medical treatment. The settlement is significantly less than the billion-dollar agreement reached between the NFL and its former players on the same issue of head injuries.

Charles Zimmerman, a lead attorney for players, said earlier in the day participation is ”very good” so far, adding there were still some players who needed to be contacted for their decisions.

”The vast majority of eligible retired players have agreed to participate in the proposed NHL concussion settlement,” players’ lawyers said in a statement. ”Plaintiffs’ counsel, however, have encountered difficulties reaching some eligible retired players to discuss the settlement. Thus, at the request of plaintiffs’ counsel, the NHL has agreed to extend the participation deadline to allow completion of those communications.”

Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly referred the matter to plaintiffs’ lawyers and said the NHL would have no comment.

Daniel Carcillo, a vocal critic of the league and the settlement, said he would not be opting in and knew more 10-12 other former players who also were not. Carcillo said Friday he wanted his day in court with the league but didn’t begrudge anyone who wanted to opt in and take the $22,000.

Carcillo said he has fielded calls from more than 20 heads of individual teams’ alumni associations and that he has tried to tell any player who asks the facts of the lawsuit without injecting his opinion. Carcillo pointed to

”If 22’s enough for you and you need it, then go ahead,” said Carcillo, who played 474 regular-season and playoff games from 2007-2015. ”I won’t judge anybody who takes it. I don’t judge the guys who (played) five games and they saw an opportunity. But I also say this so that people understand why it’s such a disrespectful number because right now (the NHL doesn’t) feel that threatened.”

Reed Larson, who played 936 NHL regular-season and playoff games, said he signed on to be part of the settlement but understood why some players with serious health problems decided not to because the money wouldn’t cut it for them. There is a clause in the settlement that allows the NHL to terminate it if 100 percent of players don’t accept, but Larson said lawyers are not concerned.

”They think everything will go ahead and move ahead and they don’t see any reason why it won’t,” Larson said.

AP Hockey Writer John Wawrow contributed to this report.

Follow AP Hockey Writer Stephen Whyno on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SWhyno

More AP NHL: https://apnews.com/NHL and https://twitter.com/AP-Sports

The Buzzer: Greiss shutout gives Trotz win in return to Washington

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Three stars

1. Thomas Greiss, New York Islanders

There was probably a little pressure inside the Islanders dressing room prior to this one. Sure, it was just another game in the 82-game slog that is the regular season, but for their head coach, it was a bit more special than that.

Barry Trotz made his return to Washington for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup as the Capitals bench boss last June. They gave him a classy tribute and then he and his Islanders made sure they wouldn’t forget him in a 2-0 win.

Greiss was instrumental in that, stopping all 19 shots he faced as the Islanders leapfrogged both Washington and Columbus to move into first place in the Metropolitan Division.

John Tavares who?

2. Roberto Luongo, Florida Panthers

Sticking with goalies and their help in big wins… Luongo stopped 20 of the 21 shots he faced in a 3-1 win against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

It’s not a 40-save night, but consider that the Panthers came into the game with a seven-game losing streak as a heavy anchor. They needed something, and Luongo provided the near-perfect game to end the longest active streak in the NHL.

3. Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames

Bennett usually gets lost in the Johnny Gaudreaus and the Sean Monahans of the Calgary world.

Some nights the other two don’t light it up, allowing other Flames to shine. Bennett provided that spark, scoring twice and adding an assist in the game.

Bennett’s second of the came with under four minutes left and broke a 4-4 deadlock in a 6-4 Calgary win over the Detroit Red Wings.

Highlights of the night

Bennett’s winner came off a nice pick up on a not so nice pass:

Kuemper the keeper:

A nice tribute to Brooks Orpik, who played his 1,000th game on Friday:

When you celly too hard:

Factoids

Scores

Panthers 3, Maple Leafs 1
Canadiens 4, Blue Jackets 1
Islanders 2, Capitals 0
Senators 4, Hurricanes 1
Flames 6, Red Wings 4
Penguins 3, Coyotes 2 (OT)
Canucks 4, Sabres 3


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck