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Is Matt Dumba’s five-year, $30M deal good for Wild?

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Matt Dumba‘s been enjoying a meteoric rise up the rankings of the Minnesota Wild’s most important players. Now he’s getting paid as such.

The Wild confirmed that the 23-year-old defenseman signed what should be a fascinating contract to ponder over the years: five years, $30 million (so a $6M cap hit). With that, Dumba becomes the Wild’s third-highest paid player, trailing only the twin monster contracts for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter.

It’s really remarkable to look at how much Dumba’s numbers leapt during the last three seasons. In 2015-16, he generated 10 goals and 26 points in 81 games despite modest ice time (16:50 per game). Dumba then saw a better role in 2016-17, collecting 11 goals and 34 points while averaging 20:20 minutes per night. Last season is when his numbers went from good to great; he generated an impressive 14 goals and 50 points while logging 23:49 per contest.

While the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs were generally frustrating for the Wild, Dumba’s work provided a tantalizing argument that the best may still be to come. Ryan Suter was on the shelf, so Dumba took charge, averaging a whopping 26:58 per playoff game against the Winnipeg Jets, and not really looking out of place in the process.

That said, Dumba’s possession numbers have generally been pretty run-of-the-mill, so this contract is far from unanimously approved. Wild GM Paul Fenton made some interesting comparisons between Dumba and P.K. Subban, as The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports (sub required).

“The risk has certainly allowed him to score in double-digit goals, for one,” Fenton said. “It’s hard to find right defensemen who have the ability to game-break, if you will. He’s got a bomb. You look at how guys have molded themselves over the years, there’s a risk-reward factor. P.K. Subban basically does the same thing in a lot of lights. You’re looking at him and saying, ‘Oh my god. He tried that in that particular point in the game or that position in the game.’ As he matures and goes forward, I think it will smooth itself out.”

The dream scenario is for the hockey world to look at the value of Dumba’s contract as an extension of Fenton’s days with the Predators, as Nashville’s knack for signing blooming defensive stars to team-friendly deals can be seen in the bargains for Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, and Mattias Ekholm. (Subban, as Norris-worthy as he tends to be, isn’t cheap at $9M per year.)

Paying Dumba $6M per season might seem steep today, yet considering the gold rush on defensemen now that Drew Doughty/Oliver Ekman-Larsson signed and Erik Karlsson‘s eventually awaiting a Brinks truck, this could very well be the sort of pact that ages very well.

Then again, it’s no doubt that people are making jokes about other long-term Wild commitments that haven’t exactly aged like fine wine.

During the past three seasons, Dumba’s tied with Ellis for 15th place among NHL defensemen in goals scored with 35. His 110 points during that frame tie him with Jake Muzzin for 29th. When in doubt, you pay young defensemen who can generate offense, and Dumba certainly fits that bill.

(This also allows the Wild and Dumba to avoid salary arbitration.)

Minnesota stands in an odd spot as far as the future goes, as you can notice from all the mockery related to the Parise and Suter deals. As a team that’s been consistently good but rarely able to find the next gear to great, some will be queasy about another player receiving another meaty contract.

That’s not Dumba’s fault, nor is it on Fenton, who is still just beginning his run as Wild GM. If Minnesota’s taking the next step anytime soon, it will be on the back of strong play from young pieces, and Dumba ranks among their most important talents.

For the most part, this is a very fair example of “the cost of doing business,” as Dumba brings a lot to the table. Still, if he remains mixed at best defensively and the Wild struggle overall, the heat could turn up on the player and his team for this contract. So, again, this one will be fascinating to look back on once we gain hindsight.

(Personally, it seems more than reasonable, but time will tell if that inkling is correct.)

This summer stands to get even costlier for the Wild, as Jason Zucker needs a new contract after a breakthrough of his own. His salary arbitration hearing is currently set for July 28, so expect movement on that front in the next week.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Max Domi ejected after punching, bloodying Aaron Ekblad

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Max Domi didn’t take long to make an impact with the Montreal Canadiens, but it might earn him a suspension for when the games actually start to matter.

Domi was ejected from tonight’s 5-2 exhibition loss to the Florida Panthers after landing what many call a sucker-punch on defenseman Aaron Ekblad. As you can see, Ekblad fell and was bloodied by the blow, and did not return to the contest.

The best news is that, so far, it sounds like Ekblad is OK. Being bloodied by such an exchange would already be a concern, but that was especially worrisome since the 22-year-old has a history of concussion issues.

Panthers coach Bob Boughner said that team doctors determined that Ekblad didn’t suffer a concussion or a broken nose, according to The Athletic‘s Arpon Basu. Now, it’s worth noting that sometimes concussion symptoms don’t truly surface until after the adrenaline wears off, so there’s a chance that an additional update about Ekblad could be less positive. Either way, it’s positive that the early word is optimistic.

Whether you think it’s a fair course or not, Ekblad’s relative health could be good news for Domi and the Canadiens, as the Department of Player Safety factors injuries into possible suspension decisions.

Domi, 23, received a one-game suspension back in March 2016 for instigating this fight with Ryan Garbutt:

Whether he’s suspended or not, this isn’t a great start for Domi, although some Habs fans will be happy to see Tie’s son assert himself. So there’s that.

In case you’re wondering, Alex Galchenyuk is making a positive first impression with the Arizona Coyotes, including scoring two goals in a recent exhibition. The hits just keep coming for Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin, but at least they aren’t in the literal form of Domi’s fists.

Did you note that these two teams are division rivals? They’ll take on each other four teams in 2018-19, so we’ll see if Luongo’s warning holds up.

“Bit of a gutless play,” Luongo said, via TSN’s John Lu. ” … We definitely won’t forget about it.”

The Panthers will have a chance to forget about it, or at least let the anger simmer down, as the two teams don’t meet in the regular season until a Dec. 28 contest in Florida.

UPDATE:

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Sabres are remarkably expensive, but relief is coming

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After finally hammering out a bridge deal with rising forward Sam Reinhart, the Buffalo Sabres’ roster seems more or less set for 2018-19.

There’s plenty of debate regarding whether this team will improve, take a step back after a minor step forward, or idle in the same mediocre position they were last season. But one thing is clear once you peruse their Cap Friendly page and other listings of their salary structure, even if it might sneak up on you: this team is expensive.

Following the addition of Reinhart’s new $3.65 million cap hit, the Sabres have committed $76,684,524 to the cap this coming season, leaving them with about $2.815M in cap space.

That’s staggering stuff, especially considering: a) their moribund lack of success in recent seasons and b) the profound savings they’ll enjoy from prominent players (Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt) competing on entry-level contracts.

Let’s take a look at the Sabres’ somewhat puzzling salary structure to try to see warning signs, reasons for optimism, and situations that could go either way.

Long-term commitments

Three contracts stand out the most for Buffalo, and they’re a mixed bag:

Jack Eichel, 21: $10M cap hit through 2025-26
Kyle Okposo, 30: $6M through 2022-23
Rasmus Ristolainen, 23: $5.4M through 2021-22

It would be wise to throw in two other deals, too:

Patrik Berglund, 30: $3.85M through 2021-22
Carter Hutton, 32: $2.75M through 2020-21

Plenty of people criticized (and still criticize) the Eichel deal. Personally, I think he’s worth it. Even if you make an impassioned argument that Eichel’s only worth, say, $8.5M, Buffalo would have gained little in playing hardball there.

Considering the impact of the aging curve, Okposo’s contract looks like a real problem right now.

That said, Okposo absolutely faced extenuating circumstances considering how closely the 2017-18 season followed profound health scares, so maybe things improve in 2018-19? Consider that, even last season, Okposo generated 35 points over 51 games from November through February, which would prorate to about 56 points during a full season. That’s not world-beating stuff, yet if Okposo could generate 55-60 points while producing positive possession, the $6M wouldn’t seem so outrageous.

Okposo is just one of those intriguing pivotal considerations for Buffalo, as we’ll get to Ristolainen soon.

The nice thing, again, for Buffalo’s salary structure is that young players give them some default bargains. While bonuses can cloud matters, they’ll be paying Mittelstadt below market value for two seasons, while Dahlin’s primed to begin his three-year rookie contract. Such considerations – not to mention the dream of Alex Nylander “figuring things out” and giving them another bargain – could make those riskier deals easier to stomach.

Passing the torch?

The best news is that Buffalo’s ugliest deals are largely going away, whether they’re ending after 2018-19 or 2019-20.

Especially bad deals off the books after 2018-19:

Jason Pominville, 35: $5.6M
Matt Moulson, 34: $3.975M

Worst deal expiring after 2019-20:

Zach Bogosian, 28: $5.143M

With Jeff Skinner (26, $5.725M) entering a contract year, the Sabres would enjoy plenty of room to extend him – if they want to – considering the money freed up by those expiring Moulson and Pominville deals.

The Sabres see more than just Bogosian’s deal expire after two more seasons, and by then, they should know if Marco Scandella (28, $4M) was merely overwhelmed by a huge jump in useage (he logged almost exactly four more minutes per game in 2017-18 versus 2016-17, averaging a career-high TOI of 23:19). They’ll be able to gather more intel on forwards Vladimir Sobotka (31, $3.5M) and Conor Sheary (26, $3M) as well. Oh yeah, and they’d cross the bridge to a new deal with Reinhart.

Now, it’s not guaranteed that all that expiring money will mean that Buffalo will suddenly be cheap to run, as it’s conceivable that a lot of that liberated cash will simply go to Mittelstadt, Skinner, Sheary, Tage Thompson, and Linus Ullmark.

Of course, even if that’s the case, Buffalo would see more money going to younger players, which is generally a positive step in today’s NHL.

Ripple effects

You know how fans often depict Erik Karlsson and other defensemen (maybe Dougie Hamilton?) as players who bring offense yet are glaring liabilities in their own end? Such a criticism holds more weight with a player like Rasmus Ristolainen, who’s sometimes a whipping boy among analytics-minded hockey fans.

Painfully enough, Ristolainen might even be a little overrated on offense, as Bill Comeau’s SKATR comparison tool and other metrics suggest:

The Sabres’ defense has been a uniquely ugly beast, though, and it’s fair to wonder if the tide-changing addition of Rasmus Dahlin may very well – eventually? – produce a domino effect.

Basically, Dahlin’s ascent may gradually place Ristolainen and others (again, Scandella was leaned up far too often last season) in more comfortable situations. It’s unclear if Ristolainen will prove that he’s worth $5.4M per season, but he might at least be able to clean up his numbers if he goes from difficult zone start situations to being used as more of an offensive specialist.

At 23, it’s not outrageous to wonder if a) Ristolainen’s confidence has been shaken and b) there’s still time for him to improve.

As special as Dahlin appears to be, it’s a lot to ask for him to fix things overnight, or even quickly. Unfortunately, the Sabres have been asking their defensemen to do too much in recent years, already. Maybe Dahlin will be so outstanding, so quickly, that such missteps won’t matter so much?

Overall improvements may also help forwards and goalies to thrive at a higher level, too.

Eichel’s dealt with poor support at times during his Buffalo run, not to mention some rough injury luck here and there. While the Ryan O'Reilly trade stings, landing Skinner and Sheary while inserting Dahlin and Mittelstadt into the lineup could really raise the wider competence of this team. Bonus points if Hutton proves that he can be a true No. 1 goalie, or failing that, a good platoon member alongside Ullmark.

***

This Sabres team is prohibitively expensive, and faces a serious uphill battle in proving that they’re worth the money.

Ultimately, the franchise’s future may hinge on key fork-in-the-road moments, such as Eichel getting some offensive support, the goaltending situation panning out, and solutions emerging on defense.

Forecasting the future isn’t easy, but the Sabres should at least be fascinating to watch.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Highlight-reel plays from Pettersson, Talbot spice up preseason

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We’re two weeks away from real, meaningful hockey being played in the NHL, so for now we’ll have to deal with preseason games with rosters featuring 70-80 percent of players who won’t be regulars beginning in October.

But it’s still hockey and there are still highlights to be seen. For example, Tuesday night’s Edmonton Oilers 4-2 win over the Vancouver Canucks featured a save of the season candidate, a great goal and a pair of broken ankles, courtesy of uber-prospect Elias Pettersson.

First up, Cam Talbot is looking for a rebound season and started things off with this robbery on Canucks forward Nikolay Goldobin, fooling everyone in the building:

Goldobin would get his revenge later for the Canucks’ second goal.

The Canucks would finally breakthrough against Talbot in the second period as Sven Baertschi, with his back to the goal, went between-the-legs to end the shutout bid:

Now we move to Pettersson, who is already giving Canucks fans something to look forward to this season. The Calder Trophy candidate didn’t score or help create a goal here, but just absolutely ruined Ryan Stome:

“To be honest, I was thinking of when I was younger and playing [EA Sports NHL] video games and I was dreaming to play here,” Pettersson said afterward via Sportsnet. “To play my first game here in Vancouver, it was a dream come true.”

Pettersson will turn 20 in November, which means many, many more highlights like that are ahead for us to enjoy.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.

What ‘NHL 19’ is missing: An ‘NHL 20’ wish list

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On Tuesday, PHT broke down the biggest changes EA Sports’ “NHL 19” brings to the table. While we’re still not so sure about the death of poke-checks,* the gist is that those tweaks present a big upgrade over “NHL 18.”

If you’ve spent a moment on the Internet, or really with other humans, you know that there’s an urge for even more. It must be frustrating for the gang at EA Sports, or really anyone anywhere. We might as well have a little fun with it, though, right?

Considering the veritable bucket of modes and ways to play in “NHL 19,” it’s likely that people will have a slew of other changes/modes/etc. they’d love to see if there’s an “NHL 20.” So, feel free to add your own hopes in the comments, and don’t be shy about getting really specific.

* – For what it’s worth, it seems like EA is trying to address issues with tuner updates. Maybe they’ll find a perfect recipe for pokes?

Here are some of the things I’d like to see, or never see again:

Story Mode

The NBA2K series really set the tone, even getting Spike Lee to pen (an admittedly derided) story mode script, although a greed element has soiled the series. EA’s jumped into the fray, with Dan Marino giving your player guidance in a recent story mode.

So, it’s only natural for hockey fans to want their own version, even if you probably won’t ever get to limp over to a digital Herb Brooks and yell “I am a hockey player!”

Now, with a lot of requests for EA tweaking “NHL 20” – assuming, hopefully, that greedy hockey gamers continue to get the opportunity to play NHL games – one must understand that the team making these games doesn’t enjoy the same budget as those churning out yearly FIFA or Madden titles.

The good news is that it’s easy to picture a scenario where a story mode could be grafted on the creaky-but-still-fun Be a Pro Mode. As a team-building nerd, I wouldn’t mind seeing a “roleplaying” element come to the GM simulation that is Franchise Mode, but Be a Pro would be an easier transition. I could easily see them graft a story onto Be a Pro, while maybe pairing down the number of games you actually play in the well-executed third-person gameplay.

However they do it, a story mode would really freshen things up. They could even have a mini-game where you try to rack up experience points by filling your interviews with the maximum number of cliches and bland answers. That’s what we call a sim, folks.

Classic teams

One of the many things the NBA2K series does right is allowing you to play as nostalgia-heavy classic teams, including approximately 5 million iterations of Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls. (Still smarting over the lack of Charles Barkley Suns, though. Come on, Chuck.)

The NBA is uniquely suited for such a mode, as games are 5-on-5, and star players make an enormous impact on the game. Most teams only go so deep into their benches, so you can capture the vibe of a legendary team even if you only nab 8-10 players.

That’s tougher in sports like hockey, particularly when fans become enamored with bottom-six pluggers.

Here’s the thing, though: it might be worth the effort.

It wouldn’t be surprising if you’ve been engaged in a silly debate: would this year’s contenders be able to hang with the Gretzky Oilers, dynasty Islanders, or unparalleled vintage Habs? Allowing those debates to live out in digital form would be a blast.

Perhaps EA’s NHL team could focus on a small number of these classic teams, as to avoid some of the drudgery that would come with attempting to pump out as many retro squads as NBA2K regularly provides. Such a tweak could also get fans arguing about which versions of dynasty teams were the best, and maybe the ’91 Penguins could be in NHL 20, while the ’92 one could move to NHL 21?

(As someone who loves fantasy drafts in franchise modes, it would be that much more entertaining to put classic players in such situations. And not just because it would be endlessly amusing to create the Quebec Nordiques and force Eric Lindros to finally play for them.)

Graphics

Circling back to the point about limited budgets, I’m not sure how feasible it would be for the NHL games to convert to EA’s vaunted Frostbite engine.

I’d also like to state that, personally, the game playing well is infinitely more important than how the game looks, and the NHL games frequently look nice overall. But yes, there are some moments where individual players look, uh … US Gamer’s Kat Bailey put it well:

But the players themselves are just so ugly. Many of the NHL’s biggest stars are captured accurately, but many more look like weird Neanderthals with bulging foreheads and massive jawlines. NHL has leaned on the same tired character models going on four years now, and as a result it looks quite out of date when compared to basically every other sports game

Again, I sort of “get it” when it comes to the easier-said-than-done elements to improving graphics, but ignoring that beef would be like throwing a sheet over the elephant in the room for many who care more about that sort of thing.

Miscellaneous whining and nitpicks

OK, now let’s get to the granular stuff that still leaves many (OK, me) seething:

  • So, apparently EA’s finally implemented something I’ve been clamoring for: the ability to manually switch the player you’re controlling. The company line seemed to be that icon passing or switching ruined the presentation of games, but I’d often grumble at the title’s inability to easily let me control who I wanted. In especially tightly contested games, that’s the sort of thing that could make you wish you weren’t around other people so you could throw a fit.

You know, theoretically.

After a lucky Google search, apparently this was quietly added:

Huzzah. Now, I could quibble about maybe implementing the control scheme differently – this tweak is stealthy enough that I literally learned about this while constructing this post – but at least it’s, to steal an EA line, in the game.

  • Stay onside, computer teammates. *Glares*

Look, as a simulation, I get that you’d sometimes go offside in a game. That’s especially true when you’re obnoxiously dangling or deking while entering the attacking zone, as I’m wont to do. That’s fine.

Sometimes the AI can get a little ridiculous when it comes to prematurely entering the zone, however, to the point where you’re cursing your teammates like an NFL offensive lineman racking up false start penalties.

It’s to the point where I’d probably accept less aggressive computer teammates if it meant less teeth-gnashing offside infractions.

(There are also times when icing can be pretty ridiculous, but at least it’s reasonably straightforward.)

  • Menus – UI (user interface) has been a sore spot for the EA NHL games at least since they made the jump to the PS4/XBox One, and that remains the case in “NHL 19.” For all the areas of improvement (the slowdown in changing menus seems to be gone, or at least alleviated), there are a ton of other things that make it tedious to navigate the game.

That might sound like a minor quibble, and it’s not the end of the world, but when you consider how dense things get – particularly with Scouting and certain elements of Hockey Ultimate Team – it would be nice if EA pays some mind to the UI for future iterations.

  • Fancy stats, or more stats – This is simple enough. It would be nice if the NHL titles provided more stats, both from simulation and in-game readouts.
  • Partial sims – Back quite a few years ago, you could “intervene” in a game that was being simulated, taking over your team in, say, the third period.

This was a nice way of speeding up seasons if you didn’t want to play all 82 regular-season games, and wasn’t the worst way of adding a different type of difficulty to gameplay. Could you overcome a deficit in a limited amount of time?

I’m not certain which edition of the EA NHL games had this before – I’m guessing it was a feature from the XBox 360/PS3 era – but it was pretty nifty. It’s not as though EA is against the idea, either, as Madden recently featured a sped-up version of games where you’d sim games until there were key moments.

Either way, it was cool, and I’d love to see it again.

  • PC versions – It would be nice to see the NHL games on PCs.

Consider the mods that people could pump out. Granted, EA might not be as thrilled about people essentially warping the NHL games, yet it could allow a passionate community to add value to the titles.

As this PC Gamer article notes, such a possibility is at least being discussed. If so, it would break a decade-long absence for EA’s NHL titles.

***

In case the wave of words over the last two days didn’t make it clear, I’m generally pretty positive abou EA’s NHL series.

Are there issues, sometimes grating ones, with these games? Absolutely. Still, I can’t deny that I play these titles a lot, and get plenty of enjoyment out of them. Hockey has translated to video game forms in a pretty majestic way since the 8-bit era, and it remains that way today.

That doesn’t mean we can’t ask for more. Really, isn’t the half the point of the Internet?

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.