Jets might need to pay Trouba like a star, and that’s OK

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It’s been nearly two years since Jacob Trouba’s agent released a statement that shook the Winnipeg Jets and its fanbase.

Kurt Overhardt, Trouba’s agent at KO Sports, needed just four paragraphs to send Jets fans into hysteria. He began telling the hockey world that his client wouldn’t be heading to training camp that fall and that both he and the Jets had been working on finding an appropriate trade since that May, not long after the Jets missed the playoffs four the fourth time in five years since relocating to Winnipeg from Atlanta.

Overhardt wrote that it wasn’t about the money. Instead, he relayed that his client only wanted to realize his potential as a right-shot defenseman in the NHL. The Jets had been playing him on the left side, one part necessity given the team’s lack of depth on that side at the time, and another part, well, necessity, because the right side had all of the talent, Trouba was too good to be wasting away on the third pairing on the right and wasn’t happy with being more than serviceable and getting big minutes on the left.

By November, Trouba gave in, just days before he would have had to sit out the season.

He had no leverage at the time, and after missing 15 games, he signed a two-year bridge deal, rescinded his trade request, and went about his business.

The Jets, in turn, gave him what he wanted: a spot on the right side. And in the two seasons since being a wantaway, Trouba has realized his potential as one-half of one of the best shutdown pairings in the NHL with Josh Morrissey and the Jets.

Time, coupled with his wishes being granted and playing on a team with a window of opportunity open to take a run at Lord Stanley a couple times has seemingly offered Trouba a new lease on the outlook of his career.

This summer is about the money for Trouba. It’s time he gets paid, and with a July 20 arbitration date set, the term and the dollar amount could be public knowledge sometime in the next few days.

The only question at this point, barring the Jets trading him or letting it get to arbitration, is how much and for how long. The latter is likely obvious. Trouba will likely get the max eight years.

The question of what Trouba is worth, what he should make, etc., has been the talk of the town in Winnipeg. Everything from low-ball numbers that would surely get Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff locked up for grand larceny to numbers that rival the league’s top paid rearguards.

Sniffing around the surface isn’t going to turn up a good argument for P.K. Subban money. But put those paws to work, do a little digging, and what’s underneath starts to get quite interesting.

Despite playing just 55 games due to injury in the regular season, Trouba put up his third best point total (24) during his five-year NHL career. Keep digging and you’ll see that Trouba’s production numbers are in an elite category among NHL defenseman.

Trouba set career highs in assists/60 at 1.03, first assists/60 at 0.64 and was just short of his career-high in point/60 at 1.22. Trouba also averaged more shots/60 (7.31) than he had in his previous four seasons.

And he did all of this averaging 17:01 time-on-ice at five-on-five.

Compare this to, say, Victor Hedman, the league’s Norris Trophy winner this past season, and you see Trouba is keeping the same company.

Hedman had a higher goals/60 but trailed in assists/60 at 0.67 and first assists/60 at 0.34. Hedman edged out Trouba in points/60 at 1.25, but also consider that Hedman also played 1:29 more per game at 5-on-5 than Trouba.

The story is consistent when comparing Trouba to Drew Doughty, who played nearly 2:30 more per game, and P.K. Subban, who played a similar number of minutes as Trouba.

Here’s a handy-dandy spreadsheet:

Those are the three finalists for the 2017-18 Norris Trophy. Trouba may not have received a single vote for the NHL’s best defenseman award, but his name is in the conversation with the league’s best regardless of it being engraved on a piece of hardware.

Doughty is making $11 million a year on his new deal with the Los Angeles Kings.

Eleven. Million. Dollars.

Subban is hitting the Nashville Predators for $9 million per annum after the Montreal Canadiens went over the top to reward him, while Hedman’s taking home $7.875 million from the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The argument that Trouba’s numbers are suppressed can also be made. He’s not a focal point on the Jets power play, and sees half the ice time his contemporaries do with the man advantage.

• Hedman 3:24/G
• Doughty 3:09/G
• Subban 3:05/G
• Trouba 1:28/G

Trouba might not have the Norris nominations or other accolades at this stage in his career, but he has the stats to prove he’s worthy of them. And if he’s able to keep pace with the elite while being elite himself, why wouldn’t he get paid like his fellow elite counterparts?

Perhaps the most curious case for Trouba making bank in Winnipeg would be when you compare his numbers to that of Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg’s bruising d-man whose cap hit comes in at $7.6 million.

The same trend continue when comparing the two, with Trouba doing more with less than his aging teammate.

Of course, Trouba isn’t without fault.

Durability may be his biggest question mark.

Trouba has never played a full 82 games, and outside of one 81-game season, he’s never suited up for more than 65 in any of his five NHL seasons. It’s worth mentioning, given that per/ 60 numbers can be skewed by fewer games played, and teams pay their big-name defenseman big money to play big minutes (and the majority of games).

He’s not a prolific goal scorer on the back end either and he’s been criticized for his puck management skills.

Trouba has hit double digits in that category just once, scoring 10 times in his rookie season with the Jets. The argument can be made that if he played a full 82-game season, he could get there again, but that would mean, well, playing a full 82-game season.

What Trouba signs for, financially speaking, is going to be of interest across the league. He’s a premier defenseman in many categories even if the goal totals don’t reflect that.

He’s coming off a career-year in several departments and this brief glimpse seems to suggest that anything less than $8 million per season might be a steal for Cheveldayoff.

— stats via NaturalStatTrick


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck