Even during their best moments in 2017-18, the St. Louis Blues were top-heavy.
For a while, it really seemed like the combo of Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz, and Brayden Schenn might just be potent enough to propel St. Louis into a playoff spot. It ultimately didn’t work out, though.
If you want a snap shot of how much St. Louis depended upon a small handful of scorers, consider that a) Paul Stastny finished sixth on the team in points with 40 despite being traded and b) only six players (counting Stastny) ended up with 40+ points in 2017-18. Asking so much of a select group of standouts simply wasn’t sufficient for St. Louis.
The good news is that GM Doug Armstrong made bold moves to get the Blues back in the hunt.
Most clearly, Armstrong sold off a bucket of assets (whether you look at it as a great bounty or “quantity over quality”) to land a fantastic two-way center in Ryan O’Reilly. ROR’s 61 points would have ranked third on the Blues last season, and only Vladimir Tarasenko (331 points) generated more than O’Reilly’s 295 points since 2013-14. The addition only becomes more tantalizing once you realize that ROR’s value comes in more than his already-strong scoring.
And, hey, it sure sounds like he’s motivated. Maybe he’ll put up even bigger numbers with the Blues? The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford reports that O’Reilly spoke of bringing a Stanley Cup to St. Louis during his presser today, and he didn’t apologize for his comments about the toll losing took on him in Buffalo.
“I stand by (those comments),” O’Reilly said. “I feel like I have a spark in me now. There’s something different. I don’t regret anything that’s happened.”
While O’Reilly is the biggest addition, David Perron should provide another boost to the Blues’ offense as he returns to St. Louis once again.
It’s tough to picture Perron generating another impressive run like he did with Vegas in 2017-18. Despite being limited to 70 games, Perron produced more assists (50) than he scored points (46) in 82 games with the Blues in 2016-17.
One would probably pencil a reasonably healthy Perron into more of a 45-50 point range in 2018-19. The good news is that the Blues are essentially paying for that, as his $4M cap his is quite modest.
And, hey, maybe a versatile Blues attack might help him get a little closer to last season’s career-high of 66 points than some might expect?
Tyler Bozak ranks as the other noteworthy addition, actually landing a bigger cap hit but less term (three years, $5M cap hit) than Perron. Opinions vary on the former Maple Leafs center, yet he generated 43 points last season and is only one year removed from scoring 55. Slotting Bozak in as a third-line center makes it all a much easier sell.
Delightfully for the Blues, there are a few other potential boosts.
- Maybe they’ll enjoy some better injury luck?
It has to be frustrating for the Blues to see Jaden Schwartz stuck in a bit of a holding pattern thanks to poor breaks health-wise. This past season counted as such, as he was limited to 62 games played. If Schwartz can flirt with a full 82, more people will likely realize that he’s a very, very good player.
The dream scenario would be if Robby Fabbri enters 2018-19 healthy.
Fabbri’s 2017-18 campaign was derailed before it even started, as he needed surgery after re-injuring a knee that’s been giving him major issues. If the smaller player loses a step permanently, that would be a rough break for the Blues, and really a sad loss for fans, as a healthy Fabbri can be dazzling.
It’s dangerous to assume that he’ll be A-OK, yet if he’s at or near full-strength, the Blues would really be cooking. Despite receiving limited ice time so far during his career, Fabbri has generated about a point every other game (66 in 123) at the NHL level, including scoring 18 goals as a rookie in 2015-16.
- Dust off your Matchbox 20 jokes?
The Blues could see the graduation of some prospects to boost their offense, as well, with Robert Thomas standing out.
NHL.com’s Lou Korac passed along a rather fascinating scenario where Thomas would center a line with Vladimir Tarasenko and ... Ryan O’Reilly at left wing?
Armstrong said that in a perfect world, the #stlblues could get to Christmas and you could have Robert Thomas centering a line with maybe Tarasenko on the right and O'Reilly on the left. Then you have Bozak with Steen & Perron with Schenn/Schwartz. Wrap your head around those.
— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) July 2, 2018
If Thomas could crack the lineup, people might need to really reach into Rob Thomas’ discography if they want to keep the jokes fresh.
Dang. Blues take Rob Thomas and I'm just a little unwell.
— On The Forecheck (@OnTheForecheck) June 24, 2017
***
For all we know, we could look back at the O’Reilly trade as a huge win for Buffalo, instead of the Blues/"everyone wins” consensus. There are plenty of other stumbling blocks that could surface, including worse injury luck.
Still, as it stands in early July, the Blues look a lot more potent than they did heading into 2017-18, and way stronger than they appeared even in late June.
It’s the kind of roster that might just make their opponents wake up at 3 a.m. feeling lonely.
James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.