Starting goaltender: Tuukka Rask
Starting goaltender: Alex Stalock
Starting goaltender: Tuukka Rask
Starting goaltender: Alex Stalock
The New York Rangers signaled that they were rebuilding at the end of the 2017-18 season, but they didn’t necessarily indicate that it would be a long one. Acquiring Jacob Trouba‘s RFA rights from the Winnipeg Jets goes a long way in accelerating that process.
To emphasize: the picture isn’t yet complete, as to fully judge this deal, we’ll need to find out how much Trouba, 25, receives from the Rangers. One would assume that it would be a pretty hard sell to imagine Trouba actually not signing at all with the Rangers … but it’s still not a guarantee that he’ll ink a deal with New York until he does it.
What the Rangers get in Trouba
As discussed in this post about how NHL teams are more likely to improve their defense through trades than free agency this offseason, it’s my opinion that – for as impressive as Trouba has already been – it’s possible that the defenseman could show more.
Honestly, it feels like PHT’s been wondering about Trouba’s future with Winnipeg for ages. Back in August 2016, it was noted that Trouba rescinded his trade request during frosty negotiations on a “bridge” contract, one we thought might backfire for Winnipeg down the line when discussing it in 2017.
It wasn’t just about money, either. Trouba wanted a prominent role as a right-handed defensemen, yet he sometimes saw his opportunities go to Dustin Byfuglien (reasonable, but debatable) or Tyler Myers (not so reasonable) instead. None of this is to say that Trouba was “buried” in the lineup, yet there was sort of a start-and-stop element. Consider that, after peaking with 24:58 TOI per game in 2016-17, Trouba’s minutes plummeted to 21:54 per game in 2017-18, and only went up to 22:53 on average this past season.
Trouba erupted in 2018-19, nonetheless, setting easily a career-high with 50 points (his previous high mark was 33).
Now, you can get carried away by over-projecting Trouba to the point that you get out of control. Maybe he’s not a superstar in the making, but he’s very, very, good, and instantly becomes the Rangers’ best defenseman, and one of their best overall assets alongside underrated center Mika Zibanejad, and the second pick of the 2019 NHL Draft.
The question for the Rangers isn’t if Trouba is good, but just how good. It also brings up interesting questions about what’s next, beyond drafting the second pick, whether that be Kaapo Kakko or Jack Hughes.
Beyond that, though, does Trouba make the Rangers a more interesting consideration for Artemi Panarin, or some other free agent? Trouba’s young enough that, if the Rangers don’t get the greatest luck in accelerating this rebuild really fast, they can still succeed with a slower approach.
Either way … goodness, are the Rangers ever doing a deft job lately. It’s OK for fans to just “chef’s kiss” endlessly.
The Jets’ side, on the other hand, is more fraught.
It will probably help the sanity of Jets fans to look at the first-rounder as merely a first-rounder, and the 20th pick at that, and not as an alternate view: that the Rangers basically kept that pick warm while Hayes was a Jet, and then sent it back to Winnipeg.
(Seriously, Jets fans, try to look at it as positively as you can.)
It’s up to debate if a) the Rangers successfully pulled off a “pump and dump” with Neal Pionk or b) the Jets are actually realistic about Pionk’s limited potential, and will hope he can merely be a contributor.
Pionk, 23, just completed his second NHL season, but it was essentially his first full one (28 games in 2017-18; 73 games in 2018-19). He’s shown some flashes of brilliance on the offensive side, managing to score 40 points over his first 101 regular-season games. Heck, if Jets fans want to soothe and delude themselves, they merely need to watch the memorable goal the defenseman scored against the Montreal Canadiens back in November:
But, yeah, the bigger picture with Pionk is … less than ideal, as he was under water possession-wise.
It wouldn’t be shocking if a lot of those tough numbers come from being in over his head (even a defense-poor team like the Rangers were putting Pionk in a tough spot, as he averaged 21:30 TOI per game through two seasons), so maybe Pionk can help out in a less pronounced role.
Again, some of this comes down to public vs. private. Perhaps the Jets can spin it publicly by trumpeting Pionk’s face-value numbers (and the first-rounder), while privately realizing that Pionk is closer than a bit part than to a savvy Trouba replacement. Under almost all circumstances, any Pionk vs. Trouba comparisons would be unflattering, and unfair.
Jets fueled their own mistake
Of course, the biggest key is to remember the bind the Jets found themselves in. If they knew they couldn’t afford to keep Trouba, what with the salary cap crunch coming with Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor as prominent RFAs, then they needed to do something.
Personally, I would have been desperate to try to bribe a different rebuilder to soak up problem contracts like that of Dmitry Kulikov and/or Bryan Little, if at all possible, but that either wasn’t a conversation that worked out, or the Jets simply didn’t want to have the conversation at all.
But, again, it’s not as though this situation just popped out of thin air.
The Jets have been putting off a long-term deal with Trouba for some time now, and eventually it ended his tenure. We’ve seen certain “bridge” situations turn untenable before, with P.K. Subban and the Montreal Canadiens (and also Ryan O'Reilly with the Colorado Avalanche) coming to mind. Those two situations obviously backfired, and it’s another lesson to other teams: lock up your core pieces for term, then see if you can keep the Littles and add the Kulikovs.
Maybe the Jets simply never believed that Trouba is a “core” guy, which would honestly be baffling. For plenty of Jets fans, it could be a nauseating experience to see Trouba answer those questions, one way or another, as a member of the New York Rangers.
The bad news is that the free agent market for defensemen looks downright pitiful, especially after Erik Karlsson signed that big extension with the Sharks. The good news is that, if NHL GMs are bold and creative, they could make waves by adding defensemen via trades, instead.
Update: It didn’t take long for a big domino to drop.
The Jets sent Jacob Trouba‘s rights to the New York Rangers for Neal Pionk and the 20th pick of the 2019 NHL Draft, which was originally Winnipeg’s pick. This post goes deep on what that trade means for both teams.
Sharks GM Doug Wilson himself stirred the pot about there at least being a bunch of trade discussions, and we’ve already seen interesting moves like the Matt Niskanen – Radko Gudas swap between the Capitals and Flyers.
While there could be a “Boy Who Cried Wolf” element to Wilson’s comments … c’mon, it’s still fun to hear this, and ponder the possibilities:
Craig Custance laid out some of the potential trade scenarios at The Athletic (sub required), and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman has also gone into plenty of detail regarding possible swaps, among others. It’s not a guarantee that any big trades will happen, but if they do, there’s a solid chance some will happen around draft weekend.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the most interesting names that have circulated. With all apologies to Jake Gardiner, you’ll notice that this list is infinitely more appealing than the potential crop of free agents.
There’s a mixture of sound and queasy logic to Nashville trading Subban. After all, P.K. is 30, and his $9 million cap hit is expensive. Moving that money out could allow the Predators to sign Matt Duchene, and Nashville is also eyeing Roman Josi‘s future, as the Swiss defenseman only has one year left at his current $6M clip. The queasy part is also that some don’t enjoy Subban’s personality, maybe because he cut a promo on them.
There are a lot of warning signs that the Predators could outsmart themselves here, particularly if Roman Josi is overrated – as some have intimated – but that’s a post for another day. Besides, those are worries for the Predators, not the potential team trying to swindle them out of Subban.
For a team with cap space, trading for P.K. could be a glorious investment.
Frankly, would it be that surprising if Subban rebounded in a big way next season? For all we know, his relative struggles in 2018-19 could just boil down to bad injury luck, rather than P.K. being hit by the aging curve.
The Devils stand out as an especially interesting trade party, as I’d argue that they should accelerate their growth process both to entice Taylor Hall to re-sign and to take advantage of the savings they’ll get with Jack Hughes’ (or Kaapo Kakko’s) entry-level contract.
But, really, any team with a glut of cap space and an urge to get better should pounce while Subban’s value is low.
Jacob Trouba – Speaking of taking advantage of a should-be Central Division powerhouse’s desperation, there are plenty of rumors about the Winnipeg Jets shopping Trouba’s RFA rights because of their cap crunch.
Those rumors start to blow my mind when you combine them with at least some talk of the Jets trying to retain Tyler Myers while losing Trouba, but much like the Predators possibly making a bad call, that’s not particularly relevant to teams who might try to land Trouba’s rights.
The New York Post’s Larry Brooks notes that area teams like the Islanders, Rangers, and Devils rank among the teams trying to trade for the right to sign the 25-year-old defenseman, and understandably so. Trouba-level players just do not become available that often.
My suspicion is that Trouba might not have truly reached his ceiling, as he’s sometimes had to battle for opportunities with other Winnipeg RHD like Myers and especially Dustin Byfuglien. If I were the Jets, I’d try to bribe a rebuilding team to take on Dmitry Kulikov, or something of that nature, to find a way with Trouba.
That simply might not be in the cards, and other NHL teams should go the extra mile if Trouba’s rights are available.
Kris Letang – It’s tough to imagine a contender with an unclear window sending away a guy who’s easily their best defenseman, but Letang is one of the many prominent Penguins whose name has at least come up in rumblings, so he absolutely deserves a mention.
Yes, his injury history is a little scary and he’s already 32, but Letang brings so much value to the table, and at an affordable $7.25M cap hit through 2021-22, the potential rewards outweigh the risks. It would be surprising if the Penguins made this blunder, especially after they already thinned out the ranks with the (largely beneficial) Olli Maatta trade. Teams should check in with Jim Rutherford just in case, though.
Shayne Gostisbehere – P.K. Subban getting traded after a “down year” makes some sense because the aging curve is hovering as a threat, and Subban’s also very expensive. The Flyers selling low on “Ghost Bear” could be a borderline disaster … and thus, one other teams should go out of their way to facilitate.
Gostisbehere is still in the meat of his prime, and he’s not only a bargain at $4.5M per year, but he’s also cost controlled for some time, as his steal of a deal runs through 2022-23. It’s honestly almost a little bit offensive that Gostisbehere trade talk has circulated with credibility, rather than just being something you’d screengrab and mock from a message board.
Now, Custance notes that the Flyers aren’t that likely to trade Gostisbehere, but if there’s even a trace of smoke, other teams should try to fan those flames.
Justin Faulk / Dougie Hamilton – Now, the Hurricanes might just stick with their surplus of right-handed defensemen, as a Faulk extension has reportedly been discussed.
Yet, it still seems like a matter of time. Faulk’s getting a raise one way or another from his $4.833M after it expires next season, and Hamilton’s $5.75M cap hit only runs through 2020-21. It’s easy to see why Carolina might value swapping Faulk or Hamilton for a comparable forward (perhaps someone like Mike Hoffman?).
Personally, I prefer Hamilton, as he’s produced impressive numbers even though he inexplicably rarely finds himself as his team’s top power play QB. Like with Trouba, I wonder if another team or coach might get a little bit more out of Hamilton if they put them in the right situations.
Either way, both Faulk and Hamilton can improve a team’s blueline, and maybe at a comfortable price.
Colin Miller – While I can see situations where teams who trade for the players above would win the trades, possibly to a significant extent, I also acknowledge that you’d have to give up something substantial to land them.
Miller might be one of the most prominent candidates who could be landed in a pretty one-sided trade.
Miller, 26, found himself in Gerard Gallant’s doghouse at times in 2018-19, including being a healthy scratch at times during the postseason. After spending big money and assets to land Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty over the last year or so, the Golden Knights are now in a serious cap crunch, as they’ll need to find room to lock down William Karlsson and Nikita Gusev.
An opportunistic team could offer Vegas the chance to save Miller’s $3.875M (through 2021-22) and maybe get back some of the futures they coughed up in those deals — don’t forget all they gave up for Tomas Tatar. Such a scenario would be awfully appealing to Vegas, especially since it sure seems like Gallant won’t use Miller enough to justify that near-$4M price tag.
If you’re an NHL team aggressive to improve, but you don’t have the cap space for the bigger names (or want to spend less in a trade), then Miller could be a fantastic find.
Jared Spurgeon: In my opinion, the Wild would be wiser to go into a full rebuild.
That just doesn’t seem to be the case, as they’ve instead been making more “player-for-player” moves. Not all of those trades have been as bad as losing Nino Niederreiter for Victor Rask, but either way, Minnesota’s strategy seems to be about half measures. They want to half-rebuild, and half … limp into the playoffs? It’s not ideal, is what I’m saying.
So Spurgeon (29, $5.188M) is a tricky expiring contract. The Wild want to be semi-competitive, so they might just want to re-sign him. If not, they also might want more than a poaching team would want to give up for Spurgeon, although a Hoffman-type expiring forward contract could make a swap somewhat reasonable.
A Spurgeon trade seems less like a “bang for the buck” deal, but he’s another interesting name, if truly available.
T.J. Brodie: Honestly, it’s tough to tell how good Brodie is, vs. how much he benefits from being glued to Mark Giordano at even-strength, as you can see from Natural Stat Trick’s teammate stats.
So, much like with Spurgeon, a lot of the trade appeal hinges on what the Flames are asking for Brodie (or, similarly, Travis Hamonic).
Brodie’s worth mentioning one way or another, because he’s a bit like Miller in being cheap, as Brodie’s at $4.65M for one more season. There are scenarios where trading for Brodie could make a lot of sense, if the Flames are more focused on freeing up cap space than they are getting maximum value for the defenseman.
Nikita Zaitsev: Tip to NHL GMs: don’t trade for Nikita Zaitsev.
Again, it’s possible that none of these defensemen get traded, or totally different, star-level ones move on instead.
For the sake of our collective entertainment, it would certainly be cool if there were some splashy trades to consider. So, get to it, NHL GMs.
After the Sharks signed Erik Karlsson to that megalodon of an extension on Monday, the already-thin free agent market for defensemen dried up that much more. It’s tempting to depict that group as a tumbleweed rolling through a dusty town.
Of course, that’s not totally fair.
There are a few good defensemen available, at least if teams find the right combination of contract and role.
Unfortunately, things aren’t always so sober when demand simply can’t meet supply, as there simply aren’t a lot of great UFA options when it comes to defensemen. Scratch that: there simply aren’t a lot of passable UFA options, at least when you consider likely price tags.
With some help from Cap Friendly’s UFA tools, let’s look at the most prominent potential UFA defensemen, and try to get an idea regarding whether they’re worth splurging on.
Also, a quick note: there’s a chance that some of these defensemen will just return to their current teams, rather than hitting the free agent market. So keep that in mind, too.
Overall, Gardiner is a very productive scoring defenseman – throwing out lockout seasons, he’s only failed to reach 30+ points once – and tends to check out pretty well from a possession standpoint.
Gardiner isn’t perfect, but he’s every good, particularly when you realize just how tough it is to land quality blueliners. If I were a GM who absolutely needed to get better on defense now, and couldn’t pull off a trade, Gardiner would be far and away my target. But, if he gets paid too much, then Gardiner will be a go-to scapegoat. Sadly, that’s just how sports work.
Looking at Evolving Wild’s salary projections spreadsheet, a potential Gardiner contract would clock in at seven years, with just less than $7 million in AAV. That term leads me to believe that Gardiner would eventually become a source of harsh scorn, but really, giving scary term away is just the nature of the beast. (I’m a huge proponent for Erik Karlsson, but that deal adds a huge block to what was already a wobbly Jenga puzzle that is the Sharks’ salary structure.)
I don’t know if $7M-ish is ideal for Gardiner, and big term would scare me, but teams could do worse, especially if they’re really opening up their wallets.
Those hockey people see a massive 29-year-old defenseman who can score, and who can skate remarkably well for his size. For whatever reason, many look away from Myers’ mistakes more than they would with Gardiner, and that’s a problem since Myers takes away more from the table than someone like Gardiner does.
The red flags become flashing neon signs the deeper you look.
Sean Tierney’s Visualization uses Evolving Wild’s GAR metrics to provide a snapshot of certain player values, and it’s eye-popping to see how poorly Myers checks out, including looking worse than Dmitry Kulikov, a defenseman the Jets should be eager to trade away for cap space:
To be clear: I’m not saying that Myers can’t be the type of player who would help a team. Instead, I’m saying that he profiles as someone who will cost way too much, and thus will be asked to do too much, and there’s a strong chance that an expensive mistake would be made.
Again, there are a lot of red flags, and I’m not alone in seeing them with Myers.
Edler’s an interesting choice if a team can stomach forking over a fairly beefy cap hit, but doesn’t want to hand out the sort of term Gardiner-types likely will demand.
At 33, there’s definitely a risk of a plummet, especially if Edler mainly looks promising compared to a rough group of Canucks defensemen, and might not be that much of a difference-maker on a contender.
So, there are some worries … but Edler is one of the better options beyond Gardiner, at least if you’re talking about more prominent choices (assuming he makes it to UFA status).
Now, could Stralman be a reclamation project if he fell into a PTO-type situation? That would be a fair question to ask. Actually, most of the veterans on this list should be approached that way. If you like a guy, don’t splurge early and heighten your risks. Instead, hope for a tepid market, and strike. If not? Chances are, you saved yourself money and a roster spot.
If you’re like me, you’ve grimaced at quite a few names on this list, or at best shrugged your shoulders.
To reiterate, not every hypothetical situation ends in disasters. PHT will monitor this offseason for that very reason: maybe a team will be creative in making something work, or conversely, make huge mistakes based on faulty assumptions.
As far as moves that can be truly substantial, Gardiner stands out as the most appealing option; even then, handing Gardiner big money and big term is pretty scary. So … the UFA route ultimately seems like a perilous one, at least for defensemen.
That’s just one person’s opinion, however. Would you want your team to go after any of the above defensemen, or other options on this list?
For the San Jose Sharks, priority No. 1 has been checked off their offseason to-do list.
That bit came on Monday morning when the Sharks re-signed defenseman Erik Karlsson to an eight-year deal worth what reports suggest will be $92 million once the team makes it official.
That’s a hefty chunk of change for one of the game’s premier rearguards, and rightly so. A two-time Norris Trophy winner, Karlsson has game-breaking capabilities from the back end. It’s not surprising that he’s one of the highest paid players in the NHL.
But behind the elation general manager Doug Wilson is feeling at the moment, there also has to be a bit of trepidation.
With Karlsson’s contract expected to be in the $11.5 million AAV region, that leaves the Sharks with roughly $13 million in cap space remaining and only 16 players signed, including 11 forwards.
It’s safe to assume that the end of an era is coming for someone in the Bay Area.
Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski are both unrestricted free agents come July 1. Thornton has signed one-year deals with the club for several years now. Pavelski enters the free agent arena for the first time in five seasons after completing the final year of a five-year, $30 million deal.
Both are integral parts of the Sharks. And the Sharks may have to let them walk this time.
At 39, Thornton’s on-ice play isn’t worth the $5 million he made last season. He’s the de facto leader of the team, but the Sharks simply can’t afford him at that price point again. If they want him back, a low-salary, bonus-laden contract could be an option.
Losing Pavelski, their captain, would also be a blow.
Despite being 34 (35 next season), Pavelski had 38 goals and 64 points in 75 games last season. Not bad for $6 million, and perhaps he goes the Thornton route for a few years and signs one-year deals that allow the Sharks some breathing room.
Does Pavelski deserve a longer-term commitment? Sure. But the Sharks are once again going all-in with the Karlsson signing and this might be Pavelski’s best shot at a Stanley Cup ring as a captain of the team.
Aside from the two superstars, the Sharks need to make sure they lock down some of their younger talent.
Nyquist is likely the odd-man out here. Going by Evolving Wild’s free agent model projection, Nyquist, 29, could earn a six-year deal in the $5.7 million range. That’s too rich if you’re planning on keeping Thornton and Pavelski around.
Donskoi, 27, is projected to get a three-year deal in the $3 million average annual value region.
And then there’s the restricted free agent crop.
Evolving Wild has Meier taking a six-year deal with a cap hit close to $6 million while Labanc is more affordable at three years and around $3.5 million.
Remember, the Sharks have $13 million to play with following the Karlsson extension.
For the sake of argument, let’s say Pavelski gets $7 million and Thornton gets $5 million. That’s $12 million and roughly $1 million left on the cap.
See the problem? And how many extensions do the Sharks want to give older players? Logan Couture‘s six-year, $8 million AAV deal kicks in next season. He’s 30. Brent Burns, 34, has six more years left on a deal that’s paying him the same amount as Couture per season.
The Sharks only need to look further down on a California state map to see Los Angeles and the devastating effects handing big contracts to old players can have.
Still, banners fly forever and the Kings have two of them and the Sharks have zero.
And the point of this exercise is that someone has to go.
The question now is, who?