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Why Claude Giroux and Alex Ovechkin should be in the MVP discussion

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This year’s MVP race seems to be as wide open as any in recent memory with at least a dozen players — yes, a dozen — that could make a pretty convincing claim to the award depending on how you view it and what your definition of “value” is.

When it comes to who will actually win the award the smart money should be on Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov, because that is how the voting usually goes.

Kucherov is the highest scoring player on the best team in the league and based on past voting trends that is usually how the voters lean when it comes time to picking a winner (I looked at this when examining the MVP candidacy of Patrice Bergeron a few weeks ago).

It is typically an offensive award, and it typically goes to a player on a top team.

It almost never goes to a defenseman, so we can pretty much rule all of them out.

There is no goaltender that is having a truly special season that is single handedly lifting a mediocre team to the playoffs the way Carey Price did a couple of years ago.

So that pretty much leaves — probably — Kucherov among a group of top forwards.

But that reality eliminates all of the arguments that go into who should win.

So let’s try to take an objective, practical look at things and see who could (or perhaps even should) take the MVP award away from him.

With the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche exceeding any and all expectations this season Taylor Hall and Nathan MacKinnon, both of whom are having career years, have vaulted to the top of the discussion in the name of “value.”

Are they they best players in the league this season? Maybe not, but without them their teams would probably not be anywhere close to the playoff race.

But if we are going to make them a focus, how can we ignore Aleksander Barkov (one of the best two-way players in the league for a suddenly surging Florida team) or Eric Staal (sixth in the league in goals for a Minnesota team that is probably outperforming its actual play in the standings). Are they not valuable to their teams and worthy of inclusion in the discussion for helping to keep their teams in the hunt?

In Pittsburgh, Evgeni Malkin has been on an incredible run over the past two months and is putting together one of the best offensive seasons of his career. The same is true for Kucherov’s teammate in Tampa Bay, Steven Stamkos.

How about two other superstars in the Metropolitan Division — Alex Ovechkin, the NHL’s leading goal-scorer, and Claude Giroux, who is the driving force behind a Flyers team that has been one of the best in the NHL for the past three months?

With all of that in mind, here is what I did. I took 12 players, most of whom have been receiving talk in the MVP race plus a few others, and compared a few numbers to get a sense of how much they are contributing to their teams.

I looked at total goals, total points, points per game, what percentage of their team’s goals they have contributed to (goals or assists) and what percentage of their team’s goals they have been on the ice for. Some of the results might be a little surprising.

Numbers highlighted in blue means they are the top player in that category among this group of candidates. It is sorted simply by total points.

A few things to unpack here.

If we’re just simply going by “best player” the candidates probably come down to Kucherov, Malkin, McDavid and MacKinnon. This is probably the way it should go because the best player is the one that is probably adding the most value to his team. If Kucherov or McDavid is worth, hypothetically speaking, worth seven wins to their team and everyone else on the list is only worth four or five wins how are they not the most valuable?

But that is not typically how it works.

McDavid’s not going to win because his team stinks and is a country mile outside of the playoff picture.

The problem that Malkin is going to have is that he is playing on the same team as Sidney Crosby and Phil Kessel. The same is true for Stamkos with Kucherov. If one of those players goes down to an injury or is out of the lineup, the team still has the other guy to take over games. When it comes to the number of goals they have directly contributed to or been on the ice for, Kucherov and Stamkos are near the bottom among that group.

Do we punish them because they play on a superior team?

Meanwhile, Bergeron, as great as he is, has had the least impact on his team’s overall offense among the top contenders.

So who should be challenging Kucherov for the top spot?

Hall and MacKinnon are certainly worthy contenders, particularly MacKinnon.

He has had a hand in nearly 38 percent of the Avalanche’s goals and been on the ice for more than 48 percent of them even though he has only played in 57 of their games. When you only look at the games he has played in he has contributed to 41 percent of his team’s goals (second to McDavid) and been on the ice for 52 percent, which is second only to Giroux.

For as much credit as Hall is getting for the Devils’ resurgence (and deservedly so — he has been amazing) MacKinnon has been arguably even more impactful. He is not only having one of the best individual offensive seasons of any player over the past decade, he is making a bigger impact to his team than almost any other player in the league.

But let’s talk about the two superstars that are getting almost zero attention in this debate — Ovechkin and Giroux.

That’s not an incorrect statement

Take a look at Ovechkin’s contributions to the Capitals this season.

He is leading the league in goals. He is on his way to another 50-goal season, and considering his age might be having one of the best goal scoring seasons of his career. He has also been on the ice for more than half of the Capitals’ goals. The offense still very clearly goes through him.

Then there is this: The Capitals are still fighting for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. They are doing this despite the fact they lost several key players off of last year’s team and several of the returning players have either regressed or gone through significant scoring slumps for extended periods of time. They are doing it because Ovechkin is still a force.

And let’s not ignore Giroux.

We’re probably not paying enough attention to the Flyers in any context because their story is almost as surprising as the Devils or Avalanche. They missed the playoffs a year ago (third time in five years) and actually went on a 10-game losing streak earlier this season. Now they are fighting for a division title.

Look at the impact Giroux has had on his team. More than 54 percent of their goals have come with him on the ice and he is just behind McDavid in terms of actual contribution to those goals. Those are staggering numbers.

So let’s talk who should be contenders.

If I were to rank the contenders right now, keeping all of this in mind and trying to mix best player and the whole concept of value, I think it would probably go something like this with five clear-cut contenders at the top.

    1. Nathan MacKinnon
    2. Claude Giroux
    3. Alex Ovechkin
    4. Taylor Hall
    5. Connor McDavid

MacKinnon is the best of both worlds. He is having a truly remarkable season and is one of the best in the league. He is also the reason his team is in the playoff hunt. The next three are all pretty  much right there when it comes to having great seasons and probably lifting teams above where they should be given how the rest of the rosters are actually playing. McDavid’s team stinks, but he’s still probably worth more wins to his team than almost any other player in the league. That’s still adding value. It’s not his fault his front office failed him.

Then there is the next group.

6. Nikita Kucherov
7. Evgeni Malkin
8. Steven Stamkos

All three are having amazing seasons. All three are amazing players. But they fall into that trap of “well … the rest of their team is pretty darn good, too.”

Then Bergeron, Barkov, Kopitar and Staal would round out the rest of that group because they just don’t have the same offensive impact on their teams that the other eight do. The trio of Bergeron, Barkov and Kopitar are probably among the top two-way players in the NHL right now, but even with their defensive ability it probably doesn’t make up for the added offense players like MacKinnon, Hall, Giroux, and Ovechkin are adding.

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Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Domi’s passing skills impress Habs’ Gallagher

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If you want to paint the grimmest picture for the Montreal Canadiens’ side of Friday’s trade with the Arizona Coyotes, consider goal stats for Max Domi and Alex Galchenyuk.

It’s been noted that Galchenyuk scored almost as many goals in one season (30 in 82 games during the 2015-16 campaign) as Max Domi has during his entire NHL career (36 in 222 games). Brutal, right?

Yes, but it probably oversells the gap between the two as overall players, even if Galchenyuk has undoubtedly enjoyed the superior career.

For one thing, Domi’s enjoyed his moments. He scored 18 goals during his impressive rookie season, the only year he’s enjoyed a respectable shooting percentage (11.5 percent).

As you zoom out, the comparison gets less lopsided. Glance at overall points and things get closer. Domi’s generated 135 points over his 222-game career, good for an average of .60 points per contest. Galchenyuk, meanwhile, comes in at .61 (255 points in 418 games). So, if those averages stood during an 82-game season, Galchenyuk would score 50 points while Domi would generate … a fraction less than 50 points.

Now, you can counter those observations by fairly noting that goals come at higher premium than assists. Again, it’s clear that so far, Galchenyuk’s been more dynamic.

But that’s not the point. Instead, one should realize that Domi is a superior threat as a passer, not a shooter. (Galchenyuk, meanwhile, can be a deadly sniper.)

Domi’s teammates seem to notice that distinction, especially Brendan Gallagher, who won gold with him at the 2016 World Championship.

“He plays extremely hard, he competes hard, but he’s a pass-first kind of guy. It was shocking at times, the way he sees the game,” Gallagher said to Dan Braverman of the Canadiens website. “If you’re out on the ice with him, you have to be ready to shoot the puck, because he’s looking to feed his linemates, which is always nice to play with.”

In a fascinating breakdown for Sportsnet, Andrew Berkshire points out that playmaking has been an issue for the Canadiens for quite some time, even with the addition of a creator like Jonathan Drouin. Berkshire wonders if Domi (who Berkshire deems a “borderline elite playmaker”) could make a big difference in that regard.

Domi spent a huge chunk of last season playing on a line with Christian Dvorak, and he shot 9.9 per cent after scoring on 17 per cent of his shots last season, so his presence doesn’t guarantee anything, but the playmaking ability Domi displays is absolutely something the Canadiens are trying to address here, and I think they’re banking on adding that playmaking ability to a group of shooting forwards making a bigger impact on team goals than Galchenyuk’s style of play would.

Again, this isn’t to say that Domi is more valuable than Galchenyuk. (Berkshire ultimately describes Galchenyuk as “the better, more talented, more dynamic player,” for example.)

Instead, it’s merely important to recognize that this might not be as egregious as the Shea WeberP.K. Subban trade.

Interestingly, it’s easy to imagine both Galchenyuk and Domi enjoying improved results in 2018-19, at least if healthy. Domi might not be much of a goal threat, but it’s tough to imagine him suffering through another six shooting percentage. Galchenyuk fell off his typical goal pace thanks in part to an 8.9 shooting percentage in 2017-18 (versus 16.3 percent in 2016-17 and 12.4 for his career).

There’s also the matter of Domi’s cap hit ($3.15 million) coming in cheaper than that of Alex Galchenyuk ($4.9M), but you can dive deeper into those aspects here.

Does this mean that the Canadiens won the trade? Right now, the answer seems to be “No.”

The point is that this might not be remembered as the sort of head-shaking disaster that the Subban – Weber trade ended up being and the Mikhail Sergachev – Jonathan Drouin swap looks like after the first year.

That said, it’s still worth giving Marc Bergevin a hard time about, because “maybe not as bad as it looks” isn’t the ideal peak for a GM’s recent trades.

More on the Domi – Galchenyuk trade

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Blues GM confirms Kovalchuk interest, makes Jagr comparison

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PHT’s Adam Gretz placed the St. Louis Blues fifth in his power rankings for potential Ilya Kovalchuk destinations earlier week, citing the team’s need for a boost on offense (while highlighting the tantalizing potential of Kovalchuk with Vladimir Tarasenko).

It sounds like Blues GM Doug Armstrong is throwing his team’s name in the hat, if nothing else. He confirmed the Blues’ interest in Kovalchuk, according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

“Always looking to improve our team,” Armstrong said. “We’re like all teams. He’s 35 years old, there’s risk involved with players of that age. But he could be Jaromir Jagr. He could start slowing down at 41. Or he could come back and hit the wall. You never know.”

Armstrong also mentioned that, unlike teams such as the Sharks and Kings, the Blues didn’t arrange a face-to-face meeting with Kovalchuk. It’s unclear if that fact indicates a lower level of interest from St. Louis and/or Kovalchuk.

The age comments are more than just pointing out the obvious, by the way.

Kovalchuk would count as a 35+ contract, and with his most recent ask being a manageable cap hit yet a deal that would ask for some term at three years, a team would need to be confident that signing him would be worth it in the future. Not just now.

Taking a look at the Blues’ Cap Friendly page, such a risk would be reasonable for St. Louis, yet they would need to mull over the ramifications.

Three especially noteworthy players currently have three years remaining on their contracts: Jaden Schwartz, Jake Allen, and Alexander Steen. It might surprise some to realize that Steen is already 34, but Schwartz and Allen are young enough that the Blues must acknowledge that raises could be coming.

(Personally, that seems most pressing for Schwartz, as Allen has his critics as an up-and-down No. 1 goalie.)

A couple other looming raises could make Kovalchuk’s hypothetical three-year deal a bigger burden, as such a deal would run concurrently with raises in 2020-21. Both Alex Pietrangelo ($6.5 million cap hit) and Brayden Schenn ($5.125M) stand to make a lot more money once their bargain deals expire after 2019-20.

Overall, the Blues are in a fantastic situation to make it all work.

They only have about $62M committed to 18 players heading into next season, and the only plus of Robby Fabbri‘s terrible injury luck for St. Louis is that the RFA is likely to sign a team-friendly contract. (Assuming that Fabbri gets a clean bill of health.)

The Blues stand as a dark horse candidate for John Tavares for the same sort of reasons that Kovalchuk would make sense. While last season’s failure to make the playoffs was a disappointment, they’ve generally been competitive. A big-time addition could really accelerate that improvement, and this team has money to burn (for now). St. Louis also boasts some prominent players in the thick of their primes.

And, sure, Tarasenko’s presence cannot hurt.

St. Louis isn’t exactly like the Ducks, a team that hasn’t drafted a Russian player since 2009. While Tarasenko is the most prominent countryman on the Blues roster, St. Louis also employs Ivan Barbashev, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Nikita Soshnikov. (Czech forward Vladimir Sobotka also isn’t far removed from a three-year sojourn in the KHL, for whatever that’s worth.)

Long story short, the Blues have plenty of reasons to legitimately pursue Kovalchuk, and there’s some reason to believe that St. Louis would be a good fit for him.

That said, they’ll need to get in line … and they may not be in the front of that queue when free agency begins in July.

MORE ON THE KOVALCHUK SWEEPSTAKES

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Flames probably won’t land first-rounder (or helicopter?) in 2018 NHL Draft

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When the Calgary Flames sent a rich package of future assets to the New York Islanders for Travis Hamonic, it seemed like a reasonable risk. Especially for a team with lofty aspirations.

Sometimes a failed trade is obvious immediately; other times, hindsight provides clarity. In retrospect, GM Brad Treliving and the Flames suffered a big loss there. Calgary missed the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and Hamonic wasn’t the steadying force on defense the Flames were hoping for.

Missing the postseason was already painful for the Flames, but next weekend’s draft weekend figures to rub salt in those wounds.

Thanks to Treliving’s (not unreasonable) decision to push some of his chips to the middle of the table, the Flames don’t have a pick in the first, second, or third rounds as of this writing. (Mike Smith worked out better for Calgary, but he also cost them their third-rounder.)

After the dust settled and people lost jobs, the Flames’ first two picks are currently slated for the fourth round: choices 105 and 108.

At least Treliving provided a great line about the Flames’ low odds of trading into the first round, via NHL.com’s Tim Campbell.

“Would we like to get into the first round? Yeah,” Treliving said on Friday. “I’d like a helicopter too.”

“There’s a price. We’re not going to do something just so we can call a name on Friday. It takes a fairly good price to get in there. Are we trying to manufacture some more picks? Sure. We’re looking it.”

One can only imagine the helicopter memes and Photoshops that might surface from this comment, at least if we’re lucky. Really, the bigger question is: do you go with references to Arnold in “Predator” or do you go a little more arthouse with “Apocalypse Now?” Flames fans and front office members will have time to consider these things while other teams ponder which prospects they should nab.

All kidding aside, Flames fans should be pleased that Treliving isn’t trying to sell the farm (or chopper) just to save face during the draft.

A lesser GM might compound the mistake by losing another trade to get a better pick or two. Instead, the Flames seem more likely to live to fight another day.

Maybe July 1, or early July, could stand as that day?

Via Cap Friendly, the Flames currently allocate $62.51 million in cap space to 15 players. Depending upon the height of ceiling, Calgary could carry approximately $18-$20M. While they have quite a few RFAs, none are really of the major variety. So Treliving set himself up with room to maneuver if he likes what he sees on the open market.

Granted, the Flames do need to be careful, as Matthew Tkachuk‘s rookie deal will expire after 2018-19, and the same is true for aging veteran Mike Smith’s $4.25M cap hit.

All things considered, the Flames are probably justified in swinging for the fences again, even if last season’s failure might inspire some trigger-shyness.

Yes, some key players such as Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Tkachuk, and Dougie Hamilton are all in their prime years (or Tkachuk is set to enter his), but there are also substantial players whose windows could close soon. Norris-caliber defenseman Mark Giordano is 34. Smith is 36.

There’s a lot to like with that roster, to the point that it remains surprising that they endured such a tepid 2017-18 season.

Surrounding that promising core with a better supporting cast is the key, and this summer can be huge in that regard. It’s just clear that the Flames aren’t likely to make those important additions via picks in the 2018 NHL Draft.

Now, a bold trade involving NHL-ready players during draft weekend? Pulling that off seems like a distinct possibility.

(Hey, they’ll need something to do.)

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Galchenyuk trade just one reason Coyotes are excited

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Here’s a confession: last summer, I got a little too excited about the Arizona Coyotes’ progress.

It turns out that 2017-18 was a little too early to take the Coyotes seriously, but there are still reasons for optimism. The Alex GalchenyukMax Domi trade stands as the exclamation point at the end of a Coyotes fan’s sentence.

Sometimes teams improve by leaps and bounds. Other times, it’s more about baby steps.

After seeing Arizona stumble a bit this past season, it’s difficult to tell how far they’ve come. Either way, there are reasons to be increasingly positive about what GM John Chayka is doing, so let’s lay them out.

  • The Galchenyuk trade looks like a win.

Time will tell if it’s a big win (or even a win at all?). At the moment, it seems significant. Sure, one can discuss some of the ways that things might work out better than expected for Montreal, but much of that optimism hinges on better luck for Domi.

If you had to make a safe bet, you’d wager on Arizona’s side. Most GMs would take that.

  • Last summer’s trades quietly worked nicely.

There’s a solid chance that tuned-in hockey fans noted that Antti Raanta pulled off a solid first season as a starting goalie, at least after shaking off injury issues early on. He was rewarded with a three-year extension that carries a $4.25 million cap hit, a deal that finds a pretty nifty compromise between mitigating risks for the Coyotes with rewarding Raanta’s patience and hard work.

(Considering his fantastic .930 save percentage in 2017-18 and strong .922 career average, it could end up being a steal.)

The quieter development is that Derek Stepan played quite well, too.

Despite poor shooting luck (14 goals on 209 SOG for just a 6.7 shooting percentage), Stepan still scored his typical 56 points. That’s not a world-beating output, but it’s the type of production that the Coyotes more or less expected from the 27-year-old center.

Stepan can be part of the solution in Arizona.

  • A team that once looked weak down the middle seems formidable.

Landing Galchenyuk and Stepan eases the pressure on certain players. If the Coyotes believe that Dylan Strome would be a more comfortable fit on the wing, that isn’t quite as disappointing now.

  • They can add more talent this summer.

On one hand, it’s tough to gauge how much the Coyotes can really be a factor in free agency, considering their money challenges. Especially since they’re likely to pay up to extend Oliver Ekman-Larsson once they’re permitted by the CBA.

Still, there’s a chance they can add a small piece or two, and they also face interesting opportunities with the fifth pick of the 2018 NHL Draft.

They could add to their very modern-styled group of defensemen (OEL, Alex Goligoski, and Jason Demers all appeal to “fancy stats” types) by landing a prospect like Quinn Hughes. On the other hand, perhaps they’d add a forward who could make a near-future impact such as Brady Tkachuk?

Sure, it would have been great if they happened upon the top pick and were gifted Rasmus Dahlin, but they can still add a blue chip next weekend.

  • Their young players could improve.

It’s easy to forget that Dylan Strome is still just 21. Coyotes fans may always cringe at Mitch Marner‘s superior development (picked fourth after Strome went third overall in 2015), but that doesn’t mean that the ship has sailed on Strome as an NHL-caliber player.

The 2016 NHL Draft presents interesting questions as well.

“Beast” defenseman Jakob Chychrun‘s value is still unclear after his sophomore season was hindered by injury issues. Clayton Keller, meanwhile, looks like a fantastic find; the tantalizing question is: “How high is his ceiling?”

  • Enviable flexibility

In recent years, the Coyotes served as an Island of Misfit Contracts, absorbing dead cap space in Pavel Datsyuk’s and Chris Pronger’s deals in exchange for futures. They’ll see Dave Bolland‘s contract expire after 2018-19.

The nice thing for Chayka and the Coyotes is that they can continue in that potentially fruitful direction, but only if they choose to.

Simply put, this team isn’t anchored to too many problem contracts of their own doing. As of this writing, their longest contracts run for three seasons. OEL will change that, and few would really complain. The point is, the Coyotes enjoy the luxury of room to maneuver.

No doubt, the in-house budget stands as a concern, yet the Coyotes don’t need to fret about dollars going to waste.

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No doubt about it, the Coyotes have plenty of work to do. The good news is that, so far, this group is getting the job done.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.