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Looking at goals, Maurice Richard race from fantasy perspective

During many seasons, the Maurice Richard race wasn’t very interesting. In a lot of cases, it boiled down to Alex Ovechkin leaving everyone else to battle for second place.

That’s not the case as of today, although it’s refreshing to see Ovechkin back in contention after people wondered if he’d start to fade as an elite sniper.

Ovechkin is neck-and-neck with Nikita Kucherov, Anders Lee, Sean Couturier, and John Tavares. William Karlsson is joined by Tyler Seguin and Brock Boeser, while there are some dark horse candidates at 20 goals in Patrik Laine, Evgeni Malkin, and Nathan MacKinnon.

Fourteen different players are at 20 or more, and seven more are at 19, including Vladimir Tarasenko.

With such a rich field of snipers in mind, it’s been a nice volume year for fantasy hockey. Let’s ponder snipers from a variety of perspectives in hopes that some of this advice might help you make better add/drops, trades, and lineup decisions.

Shooting machines

Ovechkin is no longer miles ahead of everyone else when it comes to shooting volume.

As of today, he’s actually tied with Vladimir Tarasenko for the NHL lead in shots on goal with 193. Now, Tarasenko’s gotten there in two more games, so Ovechkin’s still firing more often than him, but the gap is closing.

There are some other interesting names among the SOG leaders. Tyler Seguin comes in third with 187 SOG in 46 games, on his way to 22 goals. Last season, Seguin scored 26 goals versus 46 assists, suffering from mediocre puck luck (8.6 shooting percentage). If he continues to generate about four per game, his 22-goal pace isn’t that outrageous, and he is in a strong spot to beat his career-best of 37 goals, set twice.

Tarasenko seems like he’ll be in line for a bump, as his 9.8 shooting percentage would be a career-worst (easily) if it stands, and is short of his career average of 13.2 percent.

Two volume shooters who are experiencing better times lately: Brent Burns and Max Pacioretty. Burns now has seven goals on 183 SOG, with those coming after a goalless October. Patches, meanwhile, finally saw a four-game goal streak end on Wednesday; that was quite a refreshing run after he scored zero goals in 12 December games (and heard plenty about it).

Well isn’t that special

Sometimes, when leaning toward “fancy stats,” players get dinged a bit if they’re too reliant on the power play for scoring. In fantasy, power play production can be an added bonus, as a goal can often cover power-play points (or PPG) and even game-winning goals depending upon the context. (Ah, those sweet, sweet, overtime four-on-three situations …)

From a prognosticating standpoint, it’s a mixed bag; even-strength scoring might mean more reliable scoring from certain perspectives, but specializing doesn’t hurt either.

Ovechkin is still lethal from “his office” on the left faceoff dot, yet he hasn’t been as dependent upon special teams as in recent seasons. Eight of his 28 goals have come on the PP so far this season; compare that to 17 of 33 last season and you’ll see that he’s diversified his threat.

When it comes to the Lightning’s power play, Kucherov may actually be more of a facilitator. Only three of his 27 goals have come on the power play, while Steven Stamkos leads the NHL with 12 PPG (a huge chunk of his 17 goals total). Patrik Laine (11 of 20), Evgeni Malkin (10 of 20), and Filip Forsberg (9 of 15) are all scoring a ton on the man advantage through the first half-and-change, too.

In case you’re wondering, Aleksander Barkov leads the NHL with four shorthanded goals, representing all of his shorthanded points so far.

High percentages

Glancing at the top scorers, you’ll see a red flag or two. This doesn’t mean these guys won’t snipe for the rest of 2017-18, just beware that they also may be at risk of cooling off or tricking you into expecting too much.

Anders Lee is third in the NHL with 26 goals, and he figures to be dangerous all season alongside John Tavares and Josh Bailey. Still, his 23.4 shooting percentage is a bit high, even compared to last season’s 17.8 percent (career average: 14.6). He should improve on last season’s career-high of 34 as long as he sticks with those high-end linemates, just don’t overreact if you’re trading for him.

William Karlsson is the other name who stands out among the top 50 in goals. He’s currently ranked sixth with 23 goals, getting there on just 92 SOG (a whopping 25 percent success rate). Karlsson already has more goals (23) than he scored points in 81 games in 2015-16 (9 goals, 21 points) and is almost there versus 81 games in 2016-17 (six goals, 25 points). Of course, he didn’t have opportunities like these in Columbus, so there’s balance both ways. Still, he’s basically doubled his career shooting percentage average of 12.6 percent.

On the flipside, while Duncan Keith isn’t a guaranteed goal machine as a defenseman, he’s at zero goals on 105 SOG. Guys like Keith should get at least a bit more puck luck through the rest of 2017-18, so keep an eye on his ilk.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Canadiens make a good move: Solid deal for Danault

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Unanimously good moves haven’t happened regularly for the Montreal Canadiens these days, so it’s worthwhile to appreciate even what would seem like easy calls.

With that in mind, signing useful forward Phillip Danault to a nice three-year contract ranks as one of Marc Bergevin’s best decisions in some time, whether you can chalk up the value to RFA leverage or not. The Canadiens confirmed that the cap hit is a reasonable $3.083 million per season.

Danault, 25, has essentially been a point-every-other-game player for Montreal. He scored 25 points in 52 games this past season after a relative breakthrough in 2016-17, when he collected 40 points in 82 contests. Not too shabby.

It’s conceivable that Danault could maybe chip in a bit more if leaned upon in a bigger way, as he averaged 16:35 minutes per game, with a touch less than a minute (56 seconds) of that average happening on the power play.

Now, it’s not as though the Canadiens are being foolish in playing him in his current role, as it’s plausible that he’s best served as a supporting cast sort of asset. The point is that Danault seems to make good use of his time, might be able to do a tad bit more, and tends to check out reasonably well from a possession standpoint. He’s not the type of player who will win you a Stanley Cup, yet he’s also the sort of guy who wouldn’t take much off of the table, either. In other words, this is a justifiable contract and could even be a nifty value.

Faint praise? Pretty much, but it’s better than the usual reaction for Bergevin & Co. (laughter, mockery).

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Former NHL goalie Ray Emery passes away at age 35

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Terrible news on Sunday: former NHL goalie Ray Emery passed away at age 35.

Toronto photojournalist Andrew Collins first reported the sad news, which was confirmed by Hamilton Police. Multiple reporters, including Collins, indicate that drowning was the cause of death.

The Ottawa Senators drafted Emery in the fourth round (99th overall) in 2001, and some of Emery’s best moments happened with the Sens, including a run to the 2007 Stanley Cup Final. Emery played in 287 NHL regular-season games and 39 playoff contests, also suiting up with the Anaheim Ducks, Philadelphia Flyers, and Chicago Blackhawks. Emery last played in the NHL in 2014-15 with the Flyers, while his last hockey season came in 2015-16, when he split that campaign between the AHL and Germany’s DEL.

In 2012-13, Emery and Corey Crawford were awarded the William Jennings Trophy, which is handed to the goalie (or in that case, goalies) who produced the lowest GAA during the regular season. He also enjoyed a moment with the Stanley Cup during his time with Chicago:

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Emery stood out thanks to his personality as much as his goaltending, with his one-sided fight against Braden Holtby ranking as one of his most memorable moments in the NHL.

While his NHL career was brief, Emery made an impact, as you can see from an outpouring of emotion from fans and former teammates, including Daniel Carcillo and James van Riemsdyk. Plenty of people around the hockey world also shared their condolences, including Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas, who was familiar with Emery during his stint with the AHL’s Toronto Marlies.

Senators owner Eugene Melnyk released a statement in memory of Emery.

“On behalf of the Ottawa Senators, I wish to express my sincere condolences on the passing of Ray Emery. Ray was instrumental in our run to the 2007 Stanley Cup Final, and at his best he brought a competitive edge and combative mentality to the game. On behalf of our entire organization, I wish to extend my deepest sympathies to Ray’s family, friends and loved ones.”

Blue Jackets get nice value with Bjorkstrand; Panarin meeting looms

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With agitating uncertainty surrounding the long-term futures of Sergei Bobrovsky and especially Artemi Panarin, it’s probably wrong to say that the Columbus Blue Jackets wrapped up their “to-do list” on Sunday.

They’ve at least taken care of the matters that are more in their hands this weekend.

On Saturday, defenseman (and potential-gone-wrong) Ryan Murray accepted Columbus’ qualifying offer in something of a shoulder shrug signing. The next day, it was more of a fist bump, as intriguing forward Oliver Bjorkstrand agreed to a friendly three-year deal.

The team didn’t confirm this in its release (because reasons), but the cap hit is a thrifty $2.5 million per season, according to The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline and others.

During his first season in the NHL, the 23-year-old showed promise, scoring 11 goals and 40 points despite modest ice time (an average of 14:18 TOI per game). The Athletic’s Alison Lukan notes that Bjorkstrand checks many of the analytics boxes – rarely a bad sign – so there’s some very genuine optimism that the Dane will deliver strong value.

Personally, it’s also nice to see that he’s hungry to score more goals.

Speaking of the to-do list regarding items they might not have the power to address, Panarin announced that he and his agent will meet with Blue Jackets brass on Monday. Maybe a contract extension actually could happen? Maybe a different sort of resolution is coming?

A lot rides on that situation, yet it doesn’t hurt to land good values at a nice price. That’s absolutely the case with Bjorkstrand.

Really, value might be one of the themes of this Blue Jackets summer, as Bjorkstrand joins Anthony Duclair and Riley Nash as potentially wise bets. Cap Friendly notes that Columbus has its RFAs signed with $5.6M in cap space remaining, so perhaps they have more up their sleeves?

Jets might need to pay Trouba like a star, and that’s OK

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It’s been nearly two years since Jacob Trouba’s agent released a statement that shook the Winnipeg Jets and its fanbase.

Kurt Overhardt, Trouba’s agent at KO Sports, needed just four paragraphs to send Jets fans into hysteria. He began telling the hockey world that his client wouldn’t be heading to training camp that fall and that both he and the Jets had been working on finding an appropriate trade since that May, not long after the Jets missed the playoffs four the fourth time in five years since relocating to Winnipeg from Atlanta.

Overhardt wrote that it wasn’t about the money. Instead, he relayed that his client only wanted to realize his potential as a right-shot defenseman in the NHL. The Jets had been playing him on the left side, one part necessity given the team’s lack of depth on that side at the time, and another part, well, necessity, because the right side had all of the talent, Trouba was too good to be wasting away on the third pairing on the right and wasn’t happy with being more than serviceable and getting big minutes on the left.

By November, Trouba gave in, just days before he would have had to sit out the season.

He had no leverage at the time, and after missing 15 games, he signed a two-year bridge deal, rescinded his trade request, and went about his business.

The Jets, in turn, gave him what he wanted: a spot on the right side. And in the two seasons since being a wantaway, Trouba has realized his potential as one-half of one of the best shutdown pairings in the NHL with Josh Morrissey and the Jets.

Time, coupled with his wishes being granted and playing on a team with a window of opportunity open to take a run at Lord Stanley a couple times has seemingly offered Trouba a new lease on the outlook of his career.

This summer is about the money for Trouba. It’s time he gets paid, and with a July 20 arbitration date set, the term and the dollar amount could be public knowledge sometime in the next few days.

The only question at this point, barring the Jets trading him or letting it get to arbitration, is how much and for how long. The latter is likely obvious. Trouba will likely get the max eight years.

The question of what Trouba is worth, what he should make, etc., has been the talk of the town in Winnipeg. Everything from low-ball numbers that would surely get Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff locked up for grand larceny to numbers that rival the league’s top paid rearguards.

Sniffing around the surface isn’t going to turn up a good argument for P.K. Subban money. But put those paws to work, do a little digging, and what’s underneath starts to get quite interesting.

Despite playing just 55 games due to injury in the regular season, Trouba put up his third best point total (24) during his five-year NHL career. Keep digging and you’ll see that Trouba’s production numbers are in an elite category among NHL defenseman.

Trouba set career highs in assists/60 at 1.03, first assists/60 at 0.64 and was just short of his career-high in point/60 at 1.22. Trouba also averaged more shots/60 (7.31) than he had in his previous four seasons.

And he did all of this averaging 17:01 time-on-ice at five-on-five.

Compare this to, say, Victor Hedman, the league’s Norris Trophy winner this past season, and you see Trouba is keeping the same company.

Hedman had a higher goals/60 but trailed in assists/60 at 0.67 and first assists/60 at 0.34. Hedman edged out Trouba in points/60 at 1.25, but also consider that Hedman also played 1:29 more per game at 5-on-5 than Trouba.

The story is consistent when comparing Trouba to Drew Doughty, who played nearly 2:30 more per game, and P.K. Subban, who played a similar number of minutes as Trouba.

Here’s a handy-dandy spreadsheet:

Those are the three finalists for the 2017-18 Norris Trophy. Trouba may not have received a single vote for the NHL’s best defenseman award, but his name is in the conversation with the league’s best regardless of it being engraved on a piece of hardware.

Doughty is making $11 million a year on his new deal with the Los Angeles Kings.

Eleven. Million. Dollars.

Subban is hitting the Nashville Predators for $9 million per annum after the Montreal Canadiens went over the top to reward him, while Hedman’s taking home $7.875 million from the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The argument that Trouba’s numbers are suppressed can also be made. He’s not a focal point on the Jets power play, and sees half the ice time his contemporaries do with the man advantage.

• Hedman 3:24/G
• Doughty 3:09/G
• Subban 3:05/G
• Trouba 1:28/G

Trouba might not have the Norris nominations or other accolades at this stage in his career, but he has the stats to prove he’s worthy of them. And if he’s able to keep pace with the elite while being elite himself, why wouldn’t he get paid like his fellow elite counterparts?

Perhaps the most curious case for Trouba making bank in Winnipeg would be when you compare his numbers to that of Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg’s bruising d-man whose cap hit comes in at $7.6 million.

The same trend continue when comparing the two, with Trouba doing more with less than his aging teammate.

Of course, Trouba isn’t without fault.

Durability may be his biggest question mark.

Trouba has never played a full 82 games, and outside of one 81-game season, he’s never suited up for more than 65 in any of his five NHL seasons. It’s worth mentioning, given that per/ 60 numbers can be skewed by fewer games played, and teams pay their big-name defenseman big money to play big minutes (and the majority of games).

He’s not a prolific goal scorer on the back end either and he’s been criticized for his puck management skills.

Trouba has hit double digits in that category just once, scoring 10 times in his rookie season with the Jets. The argument can be made that if he played a full 82-game season, he could get there again, but that would mean, well, playing a full 82-game season.

What Trouba signs for, financially speaking, is going to be of interest across the league. He’s a premier defenseman in many categories even if the goal totals don’t reflect that.

He’s coming off a career-year in several departments and this brief glimpse seems to suggest that anything less than $8 million per season might be a steal for Cheveldayoff.

— stats via NaturalStatTrick


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck