This is part of Calgary Flames day at PHT…
Troy Brouwer was a big part of the St. Louis Blues’ run to the Western Conference Final this past spring when he put together a 15-game stretch that saw him record 13 points (eight goals, five assists) to close out the playoffs.
That hot streak was perfect timing for the veteran winger because it not only happened during a time when everybody in the NHL was paying attention (the playoffs), but it also came just weeks before he was set to become an unrestricted free agent. And if there is anything that can boost a player’s value going into free agency, it is a big showing in the postseason. Teams love that stuff, even if it’s not always the most reliable way to project future performance.
Once Brouwer hit the open market it did not take him long to land a spot with the Calgary Flames when they signed him to a four-year, $18 million contract that will run through the end of the 2019-20 season.
Postseason performances like the one Brouwer had for the Blues in 2016 can be a bit of a double-edged sword for both teams and players.
On one hand, it makes it really easy for the player to get noticed and it boosts their reputation because those are the big games you want to see your top players perform in. And when a player gets the reputation for being a big game player that can forever change their reputation and significantly increase their value.
The problem with that is teams can sometimes get into trouble when they make decisions based on that small sampling of play (look no further than big contracts given to players like Dave Bolland, Bryan Bickell and Ville Leino in recent years), and it can help create an unrealistic level of expectation for the player that they are usually unable to match in future years.
And that brings us to what the Flames should expect from one of their big offseason additions.
What he is going to do is come in and give them a veteran presence on the wing that can play a physical game and be around the net to score some dirty goals. In that sense, he will be a fine addition to the team, at least in the short-term.
What he is probably not going to do is score at the same pace the he did in last year’s playoffs when he was a 0.65 point per game player (that is close to 55 points over an 82-game season) and scoring like a first-line winger. Even at his best he has been a 40-point scorer for almost his entire career, and that includes his years in Washington where he was playing on an extremely skilled team with great talent around him. At 31 he is also probably at a point in his career where that production is only going to start declining (it already did last year during the regular season).
If you’re the Flames, a reasonable expectation for Brouwer this season is to bring his gritty style of play, a lot of experience, and maybe 15-20 goals and 30-35 points. And for $4 million per season, that is probably fair production.
The issue the Flames might have, and the one that will make-or-break this contract long-term, is what happens two or three years into the contract and whether or not he is able to maintain that kind of production into his mid-30s.