Breaking down the East bubble after Boston’s big loss

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The Braden Holtby-powered Washington Capitals improved their home-ice odds and slapped a 3-0 loss on the Boston Bruins tonight. So, how much sad should Boston be and how much should the rest of the East rejoice?

To get to the bottom of that question, let’s look at the rest of the race as just about everyone has two games remaining.

First things first, let’s take a look at the updated standings via NHL.com:

source:

As you can see, the Bruins still hold the second wild card spot over Ottawa thanks to the ROW tiebreaker. In the interest of being comprehensive, let’s look at the final two games for every team that can still make the playoffs but hasn’t clinched a spot just yet.

Games against fellow bubble teams in italics.

Islanders (third in the Metro, 98 points, 39 ROW):
Sports Club Stats playoff odds: 99.8 percent
Friday: at Pittsburgh
Saturday: vs. Columbus

Red Wings (third in the Atlantic, 97 points, 38 ROW):
Sports Club Stats playoff odds: 97.1 percent
Thursday: at Montreal
Saturday: at Carolina

Penguins (first wild card, 96 points, 38 ROW):
Sports Club Stats playoff odds: 94.9 percent
Friday: vs. Islanders
Saturday: at Buffalo

Bruins (second wild card, 95 points, 37 ROW):
Sports Club Stats playoff odds: 66.4 percent – down 13.2 after Wednesday
Thursday: at Florida
Saturday: at Tampa Bay

Senators (outside playoffs, 95 points, 35 ROW):
Sports Club Stats playoff odds: 41.8 percent – up 10 percent thanks to Washington’s win
Thursday: at Rangers
Saturday: at Flyers

***

Some of these teams will probably sweat these final few days more than others – it almost feels weird to include the Islanders – but as the Senators and Penguins have shown in very different ways, it’s also foolish to assume too much in this wild race.