Here’s what’s riding on the Canada-Finland game

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Canada and Finland will play in the final game of the group stage at noon ET — here’s what’s at stake:

If Canada wins in regulation: The team moves into first place and receives a bye to the quarterfinals (will have better goal differential than Sweden, regardless of score.)

If Finland loses by six goals or less, it will finish fourth and also receive a bye.

Qalification round games would be:

No. 5 Russia vs. No. 12 Norway (winner plays Finland)
No. 6 Switzerland vs. No. 11 Latvia (winner plays U.S.)
No. 7 Czech Republic vs. No. 10 Slovakia (winner plays Sweden)
No. 8 Slovenia vs. No. 9 Austria (winner plays Canada)

If Finland loses by more than six goals, it would drop to No. 5 and Russia would move up, and get the bye. (If Finland loses by nine it would be surpassed by Switzerland, but the chances of that happening are slim to none… so let’s not go there.)

If Canada wins in OT/shootout: Canada will move into third place (Sweden will finish first with nine points; U.S. will finish second based on greater goal differential.)

Finland would finish fourth, meaning…

No. 5 Russia vs. No. 12 Norway (winner plays Finland)
No. 6 Switzerland vs. No. 11 Latvia (winner plays Canada)
No. 7 Czech Republic vs. No. 10 Slovakia (winner plays U.S.)
No. 8 Slovenia vs. No. 9 Austria (winner plays Sweden)

If Finland wins in regulation: Finland goes tops (regardless of score), Sweden second, U.S. third, Canada fourth.

(Unless Canada loses by six or more, in which case it is surpassed by the Russians… or eight or more, in which case Switzerland gets in the mix as well. Again, both very unlikely scenarios).

Meaning…

No. 5 Russia vs. No. 12 Norway (winner plays Canada)
No. 6 Switzerland vs. No. 11 Latvia (winner plays U.S.)
No. 7 Czech Republic vs. No. 10 Slovakia (winner plays Sweden)
No. 8 Slovenia vs. No. 9 Austria (winner plays Finland)

If Finland wins in OT/shootout: The Americans would have the Finns on goal differential, so it’d be Sweden first, U.S. second, Finland third and Canada fourth.

Meaning…

No. 5 Russia vs. No. 12 Norway (winner plays Canada)
No. 6 Switzerland vs. No. 11 Latvia (winner plays Finland)
No. 7 Czech Republic vs. No. 10 Slovakia (winner plays U.S.)
No. 8 Slovenia vs. No. 9 Austria (winner plays Sweden)