Nazem Kadri is a very lucky guy

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There’s been little doubt to how much Nazem Kadri has helped the Toronto Maple Leafs this year. He’s first on the team in goals and just one point behind Phil Kessel for the team lead there. For every goal scorer, however, there’s a little bit of luck that goes into it as well.

Kadri’s scoring has been so prolific this year he’s netting goals on a high percentage of his shots. After last night’s big win over Montreal, he’s scoring on 18.5 percent of his shots. James Mirtle of The Globe And Mail took a look at just how lucky he’s been and why his luck will eventually start going away.

“It’s unreasonable to expect this to continue,” said Eric Tulsky, a Harvard graduate whose company, TZ Quantitative Analytics, provides analysis for multiple NHL teams. “Unless we believe Kadri is by far the best player of this era, we have to assume that in the long run he won’t see as many shots go in and his point scoring rate will drop sharply – perhaps by 40 to 50 per cent.”

The Leafs are looking at being a playoff team this year and Kadri is going to be counted on to help produce in a big way there. If his numbers start to level out by then, fans aren’t going to take kindly to that twist in statistics.